Horse Antepost
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Flat racing not really my thing compared with the jumps, but I'll have a stab at the trends analysis for the key races, and see how things work out.
First up....Queen Anne Stakes.
Things can and will change once tyhe declarations are finalised, and we can evaluate the trends for PRICE and DRAW, but here's what the trends come up with for the current declarations:
Camelot23 84%
Animal Kingdom80 75%
Farhh31 72%
Gregorian18 66%
Chil The Kite31 63%
Declaration Of War31 63%
Trumpet Major31 63%
Sovereign Debt31 62%
Aljamaaheer31 53%
Cityscape31 53%
Beauty Parlour23 48%
Foxtrot Romeo15 48%
Gabrial18 48%
Giofra51 48%
Most Improved241 48%
Elusive Kate241 38%
Reply15 38%
Windsor Palace23 37%
Trade Storm80 37%
Penitent18 36%
Libranno10 29%
Miblish19 29%
Indomito40 28%
Side Glance80 28%
Stand My Ground28 28%
Monsieur Chevalier10 19%
Currently, Camelot heads the trends but seems to be Prince of Wales bound. Animal Kingdom, strong favourite, comes out second best, and the injured Farrh comes out third best (non runner). That should leave Animal Kindom nicely clear, but let's wait til the final decs for the decision.
First up....Queen Anne Stakes.
Things can and will change once tyhe declarations are finalised, and we can evaluate the trends for PRICE and DRAW, but here's what the trends come up with for the current declarations:
Camelot23 84%
Animal Kingdom80 75%
Farhh31 72%
Gregorian18 66%
Chil The Kite31 63%
Declaration Of War31 63%
Trumpet Major31 63%
Sovereign Debt31 62%
Aljamaaheer31 53%
Cityscape31 53%
Beauty Parlour23 48%
Foxtrot Romeo15 48%
Gabrial18 48%
Giofra51 48%
Most Improved241 48%
Elusive Kate241 38%
Reply15 38%
Windsor Palace23 37%
Trade Storm80 37%
Penitent18 36%
Libranno10 29%
Miblish19 29%
Indomito40 28%
Side Glance80 28%
Stand My Ground28 28%
Monsieur Chevalier10 19%
Currently, Camelot heads the trends but seems to be Prince of Wales bound. Animal Kingdom, strong favourite, comes out second best, and the injured Farrh comes out third best (non runner). That should leave Animal Kindom nicely clear, but let's wait til the final decs for the decision.
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great! really looking forward to this
cheers chris |
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May I suggest that the Ascot Handicaps offer more scope for winning money.As exactas and trifectas are in play,you can get better overall odds.Also the fact that some horses dislike big fields cuts out quite a few,and some are overaced and started their career too early.
Some horses start at massive odds and run very well,you must have noticed that the National winner Auroras Encore in finishing second in the Scottish National and having course form was hardly the shock that everybody said,i mean 120 on Betfair that was VERY generous!!!,so give it a go,and see what you come up with?. |
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pipedreamer
I look forward to seeing your thread with all the tricasts in the handicaps worked out for us |
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Lol Judo!
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xD
Good work JOCI. Matches my only AP bet so far! |
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Well, some might say an obvious choice, but in many cases, the trends will highlight the favourite. In other cases, they might just be able to pinpoint a largely unconsidered outsider.
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St James's Palace
Dawn Approach17 83% Magician24 83% Toronado45 68% Loch Garman16 63% George Vancouver24 54% Olympic Glory37 53% Mars17 49% Pedro The Great254 45% Style Vendome37 40% Lines Of Battle9 39% Ebn Arab19 38% Flying The Flag17 38% Gale Force Ten24 38% Havana Gold24 38% Van Der Neer24 38% Dundonnell31 37% Boomshackerlacker18 29% Festive Cheer17 29% Leitir Mor24 29% Queensberry Rules17 29% String Theory29 29% Tawhid29 29% Cristoforo Colombo45 28% Darwin226 28% Glory Awaits45 28% Race And Status62 28% Gengis10 27% Mutin29 25% Parliament Square15 21% Dont Bother Me37 20% Garswood45 20% Jammy Guest31 20% Mshawish16 18% With Dawn Approach a non runner, that leaves Magician well clear on the trends. |
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King's Stand Stakes
Here are the current ratings, with one piece of information not yet available, and that's the impact of the draw. Shea Shea80 95% Swiss Spirit24 81% Sole Power24 79% Kingsgate Native24 77% Shamexpress101 77% Maarek34 74% Soul255 72% Heeraat20 64% Move In Time37 64% Spirit Quartz16 63% Jack Dexter34 56% Angels Will Fall10 55% Medicean Man11 55% Nocturnal Affair11 55% York Glory24 55% Reckless Abandon24 51% Doc Hay11 47% Elusivity16 47% Stepper Point16 47% Taajub17 47% Mince15 46% Caledonia Lady45 45% Ballesteros17 38% Gale Force Ten24 36% Prohibit339 32% Rosdhu Queen59 32% Parliament Square15 28% Pearl Acclaim10 28% Slade Power24 28% All Ablaze12 27% George Vancouver24 27% Pearl Secret298 27% Bungle Inthejungle45 26% Pedro The Great254 23% Hoyam10 18% Cristoforo Colombo45 10% Fire Eyes45 9% Shea Shea is some way clear of the field on the trends. |
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big nap for me shea shea
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Prince Of Wales Stakes
Al Kazeem24 100% Camelot24 100% Maxios24 100% Dunaden18 78% St Nicholas Abbey18 78% Farhh32 65% Snow Fairy284 56% The Fugue229 55% Windsor Palace24 55% Mukhadram20 54% Hunter´s Light31 45% Red Cadeaux31 45% Miblish20 44% Saint Baudolino132 44% Afsare305 34% Chapter Seven18 33% Side Glance81 33% Trade Storm81 22% |
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Judorick,these handicaps are possible,American Spins race at Aintree last year,exacta in my top 3,tricast in top 5,first 4 in top 8.In Spanish Dons Cambridgeshire my top 5 finished,first,third fourth fifth and seventh.Top 5 in American Trilogys Chelters victory gave me the £2500 exacta.Pedrobobs race in the county,first 3 my top 3[Persian Whatsit 3rd?].Race before the Oaks this year,[Vainglory?]only had 3,first second third,[no I didn't play the forecast],neither my top 2 in the oaks, first and second.
I don't always do the forecasts as I never thought I was that clever enough.But ithink I will now!!! I shall have clocked up in excess of 200 hours come Ascot,along with last years stuff that I have already.I may suggest that taking lines with horses through different races isn't the way to go. Lets say we didn't know who the 2 horses were,i could run See The Stars against a plater and he might win a clever neck.The Plater is considered a neck inferior,thats where the problem is.Its only later after many races that punters find out that the plater is useless!!. It was said that Ruler Of The World didn't beat a particularly good horse when he won in Ireland on his first run this year.It wasn't his fault that a moderate horse was pitted against him.But if you look inside the last furlong the most interesting thing to observe is what the placed horses are doing in relation to the first 2.Not a case of "he ran on well through beaten horses last time",why would we be interested in horses who can ran past tiring horses?,get my drift. No I wont be posting my sels,which will no doubt please certain people in Betfair,unless maybe somebody can bring something to the dance[no I don't mean the guy who puts up Redact for the Hunt Cup!!!],my lips are sealed anyway. |
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pipedreamer, it's a shame your not posting your selections, but it's also a shame your posting the results. Careful or you'll be accused of after-timing.
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stop posting on JOCIs thread then Pipedreamer, ****
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St James's Palace
Dawn Approach17 83% Magician24 83% Toronado45 68% Loch Garman16 63% George Vancouver24 54% Olympic Glory37 53% Mars17 49% Pedro The Great254 45% Style Vendome37 40% Lines Of Battle9 39% Ebn Arab19 38% Flying The Flag17 38% Gale Force Ten24 38% Havana Gold24 38% Van Der Neer24 38% Dundonnell31 37% Boomshackerlacker18 29% Festive Cheer17 29% Leitir Mor24 29% Queensberry Rules17 29% String Theory29 29% Tawhid29 29% Cristoforo Colombo45 28% Darwin226 28% Glory Awaits45 28% Race And Status62 28% Gengis10 27% Mutin29 25% Parliament Square15 21% Dont Bother Me37 20% Garswood45 20% Jammy Guest31 20% Mshawish16 18% With Dawn Approach now a likely runner, the ratings suggest a nice reverse forecast with Magician could be the bet. |
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Forget I said anything,i think its best I let this drop.I'll refrain fom posting.Best of luck to you all in your punting.
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"Forget I said anything,i think its best I let this drop.I'll refrain fom posting.Best of luck to you all in your punting. "
Post where you like. Judo is always being cheeky and arrogant towards someone, whether it be on the flat or NH threads. He thinks he's a hard man because he goes to Judo clases to roll about a gym matt with his house coat on. |
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Coronation Stakes
Just The Judge26 92% Sky Lantern47 92% Flotilla40 78% Hot Snap47 69% Maureen26 60% What A Name19 56% Ollie Olga47 53% Purr Along257 53% Agent Allison47 45% Roz21 45% Viztoria46 42% Big Break26 41% Kenhope19 41% Magical Dream45 41% Rehn´s Nest26 38% Lovely Pass113 37% Masarah26 36% Alterite26 35% Topaze Blanche19 35% Moth21 32% Sendmylovetorose265 32% Zurigha40 31% Pearl Sea35 30% Snow Queen26 30% Dubaya26 24% Mizzava26 24% Siyenica26 24% Sage Melody40 23% Senafe19 23% Single17 18% Hanky Panky26 17% Spinacre20 17% Magic Of Reality21 15% At the moment, the trends suggest the 1-2 in the Newmarket 1000 Guineas will be the first 2 home. One trend missing at the moment though is the impact of the draw, so will need to revisit closer to the off. |
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Ascot Gold Cup
Estimate50 81% Colour Vision21 67% Earl Of Tinsdal32 66% Simenon43 59% Altano32 58% Pale Mimosa13 58% Saddler´s Rock82 58% Vadamar22 58% Rite Of Passage243 53% Last Train25 47% Biographer33 47% Model Pupil21 47% Number Theory21 47% Top Trip34 45% High Jinx21 36% Times Up21 36% El Salvador13 34% Aaim To Prosper55J 33% Repeater273 22% Estimate is the clear trends pick. |
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Ploughing through the stats on the Royal Hunt Cup at the moment, and after getting around 1/3rd of the way through the runners, noticed that Two For Two comes out strongly on the trends at the moment.
Current price here 36. |
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How many races will you post on here?
Some of the races have 30+ runners still entered which must make trend analysis hard graft. |
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It is indeed. Will do as many as time permits, but have the week off work so will have some time to devote to it. Maybe wait til last minute for some of the handicaps, until the final field is known.
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St James's Palace
Final decs through, so here are the trend ratings: Dawn Approach 83% Magician 83% Toronado 68% George Vancouver 54% Mars 49% Dundonnell 37% Leitir Mor 29% Glory Awaits 28% Mshawish 18% |
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Queen Anne Stakes
Final decs through, so here are the trend ratings: Animal Kingdom 84% Gregorian 75% Chil The Kite 63% Declaration Of War 63% Trumpet Major 63% Sovereign Debt 62% Aljamaaheer 53% Elusive Kate 48% Gabrial 48% Trade Storm 47% Penitent 46% Libranno 29% Monsieur Chevalier 28% Selection: Animal Kingdom |
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King's Stand Stakes
Here are the ratings for the King's Stand Stakes, after the final declarations, and factoring in the effect of the draw. Shea Shea 95% Sole Power 86% Swiss Spirit 81% Kingsgate Native 77% Shamexpress 77% Heeraat 71% Move In Time 64% Spirit Quartz 63% Reckless Abandon 57% Jack Dexter 56% Angels Will Fall 55% Medicean Man 55% Stepper Point 53% Doc Hay 47% Ballesteros 44% Pearl Secret 34% Prohibit 32% Bungle Inthejungle 26% Hoyam 18% Selection: Shea Shea |
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are you doing the Ascot Stakes Handicap? I have a short list and wanted to see if any fail on stats like age etc. Cheers
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If I can get round to it.
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Coventry Stakes
Championship 91% Sir John Hawkins 84% Stubbs 82% Lanark 71% Rosso Corsa 71% Wahaab 71% Jallota 66% Parbold 59% Thunder Strike 59% Mawfoor 58% War Command 51% Dubawi Fun 46% Riverboat Springs 45% Rogue Wave 25% Thrtypointstothree 25% Bahamian Heights 13% Selection: Championship (an e/w price) |
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Ascot Stakes Handicap
Homeric 90% Well Sharp 86% Mubaraza 82% Lieutenant Miller 75% Justification 73% Roman Flight 73% Marchese Marconi 73% Mysterious Man 73% Tantalising 73% Midnight Oil 72% Softsong 70% La Estrella 67% Big Easy 61% Suraj 59% Apache 59% Mawaqeet 59% Tiger Cliff 56% Junior 56% Investissement 44% Blue Bajan 43% Selections: Homeric (14) & Mubaraza (15) Both decent each way prices. |
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Ascot Stakes Handicap
Homeric 90% Well Sharp 86% Mubaraza 82% Lieutenant Miller 75% Justification 73% Roman Flight 73% Marchese Marconi 73% Mysterious Man 73% Tantalising 73% Midnight Oil 72% Softsong 70% La Estrella 67% Big Easy 61% Suraj 59% Apache 59% Mawaqeet 59% Tiger Cliff 56% Junior 56% Investissement 44% Blue Bajan 43% CORRECTION! Selections: Homeric (14) & Well Sharp (12.5) Both decent each way prices. |
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I've backed Mubaraza,cheers
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yes someone has royally fcked the price up on mubaraza on here...sickens me
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not me have not touched betfair prices harry
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Tuesday
2:30 Animal Kingdom 3:05 Shea Shea 3:45 Dawn Approach / Magician 4:25 Championship 5:00 Homeric / Well Sharp / Mubaraza 5:35 Anticipated (not trends based - just gut feel) |
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Jersey Stakes
Montiridge 86% Well Acquainted 86% Ian´s Dream 78% Mutin 76% Garswood 74% Pearl Flute 72% Gale Force Ten 71% Here Comes When 70% Tamayuz Star 70% Ajraam 69% The Brothers War 67% Ninjago 65% Parliament Square 61% Complimentor 60% One Word More 60% Music Master 59% Pearl Sea 59% Tawhid 54% Dont Bother Me 51% Jammy Guest 50% Blaine 44% Selections: Monteridge (8) & Well Acquainted e/w (18) |
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Prince Of Wales Stakes
Here are the final ratings following the declarations: Al Kazeem24 100% Camelot24 100% Maxios24 100% The Fugue229 67% Windsor Palace24 55% Mukhadram20 54% Red Cadeaux31 45% Miblish20 44% Saint Baudolino132 44% Afsare305 34% Side Glance81 33% Due to the top 3 all being equally ranked on the trends, it's not possible to make a confident win bet selection, however, some combinations involving the front three might be an option. |
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Duke of Cambridge
Chigun 94% Dank 94% Thistle Bird 89% Duntle 81% Moonstone Magic 76% Sarkiyla 76% Beatrice Aurore 71% Intense Pink 66% Ladys First 63% Sweetnessandlight 63% Dancewiththedevil 40% Selections: Chigun (4.1) & Dank (6.4) If you don't read anything into the trends regarding the draw, then Duntle would also come out equal first. However, stall one has a bad record in this race (only one placed runner in last 9 runnings), and Duntle has drawn the short straw. |
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Royal Hunt Cup
Two For Two34 97% Spa´s Dancer20 5x 94% 51 Captain Bertie40 94% Burke´s Rock46 92% Educate39 85% Fury37 82% Excellent Guest39 77% Directorship33 77% Stirring Ballad46 73% Sandagiyr111 71% Navajo Chief34 68% Don´t Call Me21 67% Moran Gra25 67% 45 Balducci270 67% Arsaadi39 66% Winter´s Night389 66% Es Que Love18 66% Belgian Bill60 66% Redact25 65% Fire Ship53 62% Elusive Time283 60% David Livingston111 60% 50 Circumvent19 60% Santefisio46 60% Toto Skyllachy11 59% Burwaaz39 58% Prince Of Johanne34 58% Trade Commissioner228 57% Field Of Dream27 51% 49 Dance And Dance34 50% Global Village60 50% Sweet Lightning38 47% Premio Loco11 39% Need to have a few on your side in this cavalry charge so going for the top four highest rated. Selections: Two For Two (23), Spa's Dancer (27), Captain Bertie (24), Burke's Rock (16.5) |
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Ians dream 78% I'll be seething if that wins given I was on at Donny!
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Queen Mary Stakes
Beldale Memory33 100% Alutiq33 94% Baytown Kestrel15 94% Excel´s Beauty10 94% One Chance44 94% Reroute5 94% Rizeena20 94% Sandsman´s Girl23 94% Survived12 94% Fast36 82% Kaiulani22 82% Bye Bye Birdie3 p 81% Fire Blaze62 81% Ventura Mist21 p 80% Fig Roll16 65% Go Glamorous49 55% Blithe Spirit33 52% Corncockle16 52% Oriel33 52% Quatuor33 52% Robynelle4 52% Sweet Emma Rose32 tb 40% Diamond Lady33 40% Lorimer´s Lot21 40% Selection: Beldale Memory (4.6) |