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JOCI Club's Royal Ascot Trends Analysis
JOCI Club's Royal Ascot Trends Analysis
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Sandringham Handicap
Woodland Aria16 88% Zurigha38 80% Annecdote32 69% Stresa26 69% Auction26 69% Mango Diva20 68% Hint Of A Tint38 h1 66% Senafe17 63% Valtina27 53% Waterway Run38 53% Sorella Bella25 53% Fleeting Smile45 52% Harmonic Note27 51% Uleavemebreathless24 41% Go Angellica111 41% Trapeze27 41% Typhoon Lily49 t 39% Desert Image60 38% Bracing Breeze40 38% Annie´s Fortune33 38% Califante33 29% Nargys63 26% The Gold Cheongsam60 t 23% Light Up My Life63 23% Flawless Beauty15 b 15% Lizzie Tudor39 12% Selections: Woodland Aria (5.9) & Zurigha (8.6) |
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Tuesday
2:30 Animal Kingdom 3:05 Shea Shea 3:45 Dawn Approach / Magician 4:25 Championship 5:00 Homeric / Well Sharp / Mubaraza 5:35 Anticipated Wednesday 2:30 Montiridge / Well Acquainted 3:05 Chigun / Dank 3:45 Al Kazeem / Camelot / Maxios 4:25 Two For Two / Spa´s Dancer / Captain Bertie / Burke´s Rock 5:00 Beldale Memory 5:35 Woodland Aria / Zurigha |
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Tuesday
5 fold accumulator Animal Kingdom Shea Shea Magician Stubbs Ogermeister and I bought a Euromillions ticket as backup |
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Animal Kingdom to beat Gregorian would be the trends forecast in the first.
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Animal Kingdom hugely disappointing, but Gregorian ran a big race in 3rd @ 16/1.
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Shea Shea to beat Sole Power perhaps, if the trends have their way?
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King's Stand Stakes
Here are the ratings for the King's Stand Stakes, after the final declarations, and factoring in the effect of the draw. Shea Shea 95% Sole Power 86% Swiss Spirit 81% Kingsgate Native 77% Shamexpress 77% Heeraat 71% Move In Time 64% Spirit Quartz 63% Reckless Abandon 57% Jack Dexter 56% Angels Will Fall 55% Medicean Man 55% Stepper Point 53% Doc Hay 47% Ballesteros 44% Pearl Secret 34% Prohibit 32% Bungle Inthejungle 26% Hoyam 18% Selection: Shea Shea Trends got the top two, but not in the right order. |
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Why is Tiger Cliff so low on trends and Mubaraza so high? The form of that race looks strong and both were staying on well at the end.
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St James's Palace
Final decs through, so here are the trend ratings: Dawn Approach 93% Magician 83% Toronado 68% George Vancouver 54% Mars 49% Dundonnell 37% Leitir Mor 29% Glory Awaits 28% Mshawish 18% Correction to previous post...I messed up Dawn Approach's rating (based on forecast SP), and have now corrected that. Selection: Dawn Approach Dawn Approach to beat Magician now looks the trends forecast. |
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GoldCupWinner 18 Jun 13 15:26
Why is Tiger Cliff so low on trends and Mubaraza so high? The form of that race looks strong and both were staying on well at the end. 1) Tiger Cliff not won over 2 miles; Mubaraza has. 2) Favourites have bad record (Tiger Cliff = favourite) - you may wish to discount this if you don't value trends based on SP. 3) Tiger Cliff didn't fit the right profile for the time between his penultimate run, and the one before that (Mubaraza did). This was a 100% stat. |
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Going back to the King's Stand, the only trend Shea Shea didn't hit was the 'being drawn in stall 10-15', which both the winner, Sole Power and the third, Pearl Secret did hit.
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Thx very much. Will back Mubaraza.
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St James's Palace
Final decs through, so here are the trend ratings: Dawn Approach 93% Magician 83% Toronado 68% George Vancouver 54% Mars 49% Dundonnell 37% Leitir Mor 29% Glory Awaits 28% Mshawish 18% Correction to previous post...I messed up Dawn Approach's rating (based on forecast SP), and have now corrected that. Selection: Dawn Approach Dawn Approach to beat Magician now looks the trends forecast. Got a winner at the third attempt. Magician pretty disappointing after looking so good last time out. |
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Ribblesdale Stakes
Alive Alive Oh44 100% Elik28 86% Winsili34 85% Just Pretending25 78% Fersah24 74% The Lark20 70% Riposte34 66% Waila55 58% Gertrude Versed20 57% Cocktail Queen39 50% Hollowina36 50% Indigo Lady36 42% Selection: Alive Alive Oh is a 100% trend horse. |
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Championship 91%
Sir John Hawkins 84% Stubbs 82% The first 3 home in the Coventry according to the trends. |
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Not even close to getting War Command in the Coventry.
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Changed my mind and went with Well Sharp GL! I think I found a couple of pieces of form where he looks better off than my initial selection and looks gtd to stay.
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Good luck...a winner in either of the last 2 races can turn the day around.
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Yeah fingers crossed, was on toronado e/w and had war command in telegraph comp but no money on it so feeling a bit unlucky. Been some late money here which I always like to see with Jonjo.
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GETTT INNNN!!! Thx very much, may not have changed mind if it wasn't for the thread.
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Good stuff!
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Ascot Stakes Handicap
Homeric 90% Well Sharp 86% Mubaraza 82% Lieutenant Miller 75% Justification 73% Roman Flight 73% Marchese Marconi 73% Mysterious Man 73% Tantalising 73% Midnight Oil 72% Softsong 70% La Estrella 67% Big Easy 61% Suraj 59% Apache 59% Mawaqeet 59% Tiger Cliff 56% Junior 56% Investissement 44% Blue Bajan 43% CORRECTION! Selections: Homeric (14) & Well Sharp (12.5) Both decent each way prices. Got a nice one at last, and a place for Mubaraza. |
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FFS B O Y L E S has gone down before I can even see my winnings lol. Might not be overly re investing.
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stop me overly investing*
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Tuesday update:
2:30 Animal Kingdom unplaced, 2nd top rated Gregorian finished 3rd 3:05 Shea Shea 2nd, 2nd top rated Sole Power finished 1st 3:45 Dawn Approach Won @ 5/4 / Magician unplaced 4:25 Championship unplaced 5:00 Homeric 7th / Well Sharp Won @ 12.5 / Mubaraza 3rd e/w 5:35 Anticipated 3rd Two winners (one at a nice price) and a place for the trends. Also, trends picked first 2 home in the King's Stand Stakes (but in wrong order). Profit on the day. |
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Britannia Handicap
Jalaa12 88% So Beloved26 h 86% Maputo13 86% Wentworth27 86% Shebebi26 86% Sea Shanty28 86% Queensberry Rules19 86% Won Diamond12 82% Secret Talent41 80% Market Town55 h 80% Homage14 80% Llaregyb19 77% Roca Tumu26 73% String Theory31 t 72% Red Avenger26 72% Haafaguinea55 71% Cape Peron33 71% Fehaydi55 71% Al Mukhdam40 69% Newstead Abbey26 68% Ebn Arab21 68% You Da One20 h 68% Jodies Jem28 65% Le Deluge14 64% Granell12 b1 64% Prophets Pride22 p 63% Machete Mark26 56% Capo Rosso26 55% Kyllachy Rise9 5x 54% Law Enforcement31 51% Ayaar31 49% Tarikhi33 48% Flashlight20 25% Selection: Jalaa (e/w) @ 32 Wouldn't put you off any of the other horses rated 86%. |
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Tercentenary Stakes
Indian Chief 82% Chopin 78% Remote 78% Centurius 78% Hoarding 78% Shikarpour 72% Van Der Neer 72% Ideal 68% Secret Number 66% Windhoek 66% Elkaayed 58% Kitten On The Run 36% Selection: Indian Chief @ 5.9 |
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King George V Stakes
Sioux Chieftain34 84% Salutation5 79% Soviet Rock46 77% Royal Skies5 4x 72% Eshtiaal27 69% Excellent Result28 69% Bold Sniper17 h 68% Red Runaway26 68% Pasaka Boy19 66% Carry On Sydney46 64% Number One London13 64% Majeed6 64% Space Ship19 60% Spillway33 60% Blue Wave19 b 60% Greeleys Love6 60% Pether´s Moon46 55% Another Cocktail40 52% Elidor40 52% Shrewd239 45% Empiricist6 29% Cap O´Rushes62 28% Sioux Chieftain comes out top rated but is an unlikely runner, so the selection defaults to the next highest rated. Selection: Salutation e/w @ 23 Might also have a look at Soviet Rock on the day. |
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Tuesday
2:30 Animal Kingdom 3:05 Shea Shea 3:45 Dawn Approach / Magician 4:25 Championship 5:00 Homeric / Well Sharp / Mubaraza 5:35 Anticipated Wednesday 2:30 Montiridge / Well Acquainted 3:05 Chigun / Dank 3:45 Al Kazeem / Camelot / Maxios 4:25 Two For Two / Spa´s Dancer / Captain Bertie / Burke´s Rock 5:00 Beldale Memory 5:35 Woodland Aria / Zurigha Thursday 2:30 Woodland Aria & Zurigha 3:05 Alive Alive Oh 3:45 Estimate 4:25 Jalaa 5:00 Indian Chief 5:35 Salutation (& Sioux Chietian if a runner) |
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Wednesday
2:30 Montiridge / Well Acquainted 3:05 Chigun / Dank 3:45 Al Kazeem / Camelot / Maxios 4:25 Two For Two / Spa´s Dancer / Captain Bertie / Burke´s Rock 5:00 Beldale Memory 5:35 Woodland Aria / Zurigha So close, but no cigar with Montiridge. |
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Blow out in the 2nd too, only a 3rd place from Dank.
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Al Kazeem joint top rated in the 3rd but a blow out in the Royal Hunt Cup.
Need to find the winner in one of the last two now. |
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Wednesday
2:30 Montiridge 2nd 15/2 / Well Acquainted unplaced 3:05 Chigun 6th / Dank 3rd 3:45 Al Kazeem Won / Camelot / Maxios 4:25 Two For Two / Spa´s Dancer / Captain Bertie / Burke´s Rock All unplaced 5:00 Beldale Memory unplaced 5:35 Woodland Aria 3rd 7/1 / Zurigha Poor day for the trends today with just a signle winner, Al Kazeem (albeit jt highest rated of three), and an unlucky second with Montiridge. A losing day, and hope for a turnaround tomorrow. |
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nothing unlucky about Montridge really, might have won if Hughes had tried to mug him on the line but the winner picked up when challenged and was only dossing in front - best horse definitely won
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Agreed. Just pulled out more.
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King Edward VII
Battle Of Marengo 82% Havana Beat 76% Contributer 74% Hillstar 63% Tha´ir 59% Greatwood 57% Mutashaded 54% Fantastic Moon 33% Selection: Battle Of Marengo |
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Coronation Stakes
Just The Judge 100% Sky Lantern 100% Maureen 60% Ollie Olga 53% Purr Along 53% Pavlosk 51% Big Break 49% Rehn´s Nest 46% Agent Allison 45% Roz 45% Lovely Pass 45% Masarah 44% Viztoria 42% Kenhope 41% Mizzava 32% Snow Queen 30% Siyenica 24% Selections: Just The Judge & Sky Lantern Reverse forecast maybe, as so far clear of the others on the trends? |
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Albany Stakes
Midnite Angel 92% Arabda 82% Race Hunter 82% Suite 82% Sandiva 72% Kiyoshi 70% Lucky Kristale 70% Sacred Aspect 70% Wedding Ring 70% Wonderfully 68% Sleepy Sioux 59% Aqlaam Vision 58% Kidmenot 55% Princess Noor 55% Rasheeda 55% Joyeuse 53% Heart Focus 46% Iseemist 45% Red Lady 41% Lady Lara 30% Selection: Midnite Angel e/w @ 16 |