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**St Leger - Donc 14th Sept**
**St Leger - Donc 14th Sept**
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Replies: 120
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Av Lib but only at 8s after the derby! Much nicer bet on Galileo Rock at 20s
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Don't think the Rock would want to see anymore of the wet stuff BJG.
On gd or faster ground he would have been my fancy for the Great Race. Hope it dries out a gd bit by Leger time on Sat. |
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Been an up and down wettish day and I think going still good. Good draining track so remember that. Where is Town Moor these days and his dog walking?
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I was a big Galileo Rock fan but given tonights forecast I would be trading any antepost bets at least to make a small profit.
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I see they have gone for cheekpieces on Libertarian, probably not significant but if you want to take a positive view then half brother Zed Candy did win with first time cheekpieces over hurdles. Still if he doesn't perform on saturday then who knows maybe we'll see Libertarian over hurdles for John Ferguson one day
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Galileo Rock may not run if ground is unsuitable according to RP
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Time to trade.
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No great surprise to see Libertarian will have some headgear applied as he does tend to run in snatches in his races & they will be hoping it helps him travel better until the charge for home. Solid ew chance granted some ease in the ground imo.
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I have to say i am now deeply involved in libertarian as feel 8-1 is way to big about a horse with the best form and will like the ground buick on an extra plus. It must be remembered with this fellow that despite the ground last time it was his second poor performance on a right handed track...i have a small saver on the filly and a decent enough wager on the abdulla horse at 7's but mercionary that i am i don't particularly like him anymore as think i made a poor play... i don't think he will be tough enough for this and also feel the ground will be plenty soft enough would like to be wrong as he is worth the most but i fear for him and will not be topping up
galileo rock looks a non runner to me judging by the trainers comments a shame as he is such a likeable creature |
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As much as I think GR does prefer Good ground, it would be ridiculous not to run in a classic on Good to Soft, especially when you have the best form horse in the race.
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How does Galileo Rock have the best form in the race please? Talent won the Grade 1 Oaks by 3 lengths. Galileo Rock has only won a Maiden. The price of Galileo Rock is laughable.
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Backed Talent ew but starting to think Libertarian worth a punt also. He's better than Galileo Rock for me and Excess Knowledge and Foundry have done nothing of note
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Read that in last 6 years, of the 18 horses that filled the first 3 places 17 had at least 2 career wins. Excess Knowledge, Foundry, Galileo Rock have only won once. Not sure what these have all done to be top 3 in betting to be honest.
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Because the form of the Oaks is dire. Look through it.
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Only the Lark has won from the race. The rest have been retired like Moth or Liber Nauticus.
The form with Trading Leather who was 2nd in the King George and Juddmonte is the strongest on offer, though clearly it is not head and shoulders above everything else. |
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Not the strongest Oaks I agree but I'd rather have a 3 length Group 1 winner at 12/1 than a Maiden winner at 4/1. Can't understand why Galileo Rock and Excess Knowledge are so short.
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Also the form of the Epsom Derby is equally as bad if not worse than the Epsom Oaks given how far Talent pulled clear. It's a poor crop of middle distance three year olds, i don't think there is a stand out horse so for me the value lies with the likes of Secret Number, Talent and Havana Beat
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I wouldn't be surprised if Talent is price wized.
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My choice is Talent for small money at 14s.
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wasn't the oaks last year a terrible race, but the fugue has shown shes top class, maybe talent will follow suit
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Raining again but not particularly heavy duty stuff.
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Not sure he is any value at all, but think Foundry is the one for this.
Huge step up required but think he will improve massively. Agree that Talent is over priced |
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Cap O' rushes has as good a chance as any in an open race , he is more likely than most to get the one mile six trip and the vibes are there for a good run , should be about 8/1 imo , the very hard race he had in the Irish Derby when he was pacemaker for Libertarian did him no favours ,but he has won since a repeat of that effort would see him right there gl
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Why my long term fancy Gs Rock looking like a non-starter due to the softening ground at Donny, the Great race looks even more tricky to work out due to the likely soft ground.
Looking over all the form there is not much between a handful of them. Gd luck with your fancies 2moro  |
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Since 2001 there have been 16 runners in the Leger that have earned an RPR of 105+ in defeat in a 1M2F+ pattern race at Royal Ascot, 7 have won. In this years race, only Secret Number passes this test
he was also top 3 in the Voltigeur (5 of last 10 winners also did this) also ran in the Gordon (4 out of 10) His trainer has 2 winners and a second from his last 4 runners in the race massive ew shout boys |
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surely GR a non-runner after the trainer comments? he's going to look pretty stupid if it runs now. I don't get the soft ground issue though, it looks like it goes well on softish
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Sun is out and a bootiful day. I might just pop down.
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keeping the faith with Galileo Rock and taken 6/1. Trainer happy to chance it, and he just looks made for this race, slow as boat over 12f and on breeding. Should improve for the trip.
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this race is a car crash imo have backed 4 and still don't think that's enough!!
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Small interest on Gs Rock as he has been my long term fancy, bit concerned about the ground, hence only a small play. Gd luck
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I think Talent, Libertarian, Galileo Rock, Leading Light and Excess Knowledge have all shown a level of form in keeping with past Leger winners and there's very little between them. I have to chuck out Talent and Libertarian because of their disappointing last efforts, they might come back to form but don't interest me at the prices. I'd also like to see some more recent proof of Galileo Rock's well being, as I though he had two hard races earlier in the season, the ground could be against him too. Not a big betting race for me but I think Leading Light is a value price, most Queen's Vase winners are plodders but he showed he's much more than that when winning the Gallinule in a good time. Hopefully he's still in the same form, if he is he'll be hard to beat, but Excess Knowledge has been prepared to be spot on for this so could be the danger.
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I'm going for Leading Light, proven stamina essential in these conditions and also has form on this ground.
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Galileo Rock will prob run very well but may just find one or two proper stayers and hopefully Libertarians the one
Cap O Rushes could show its form all wrong |
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well done winners ...looked the winner from a long way out
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Ascot Gold Cup next year you reckon?
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well done Leading Light backers
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decent performances from the front 3. They coped with the demands best. Talent couldn't get a gap when needed but the winner fights like a butchers dog.
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Gd performance from the winner & the AOB team got it spot on with young joe on the big winner, well done to them & its backers.
The filly ran a cracker to come from last to grab 2nd spot but found the winner just to strong. The Rock ran yet another soild race on ground that was prob a bit on the slow side but the form makes sense (or very close to it with the 4th horse) & he had every chance. |
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wd figgis, GC and other backers. Talk of the Arc now. Always the case after a Leger winner!! Masked Marvel,Sea Moon etc
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No chance in the Arc. Absolutely none.
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