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**St Leger - Donc 14th Sept**
**St Leger - Donc 14th Sept**
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Replies: 120
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He has been Galileo Rock twice already so was well overpriced, if turning up?
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I fancy Secret Number, 20/1 a good price
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34416 Cap O´Rushes24 3 9-0 Charlie Appleby 110 113 127
4-4111 Dabadiyan50 3 9-0 M Halford — 102 121 581062 Dashing Star21 3 9-0 David Elsworth 95 114 118 127-32 Excess Knowledge45 3 9-0 John Gosden 106 90 126 13-2 Eye Of The Storm141 3 9-0 A P O´Brien — 109 124 14521 Feel Like Dancing65 3 9-0 John Gosden 101 105 115 1-2 Foundry24 3 9-0 A P O´Brien — 90 125 15-332 Galileo Rock77 3 9-0 David Wachman — 118 132 7-611 Great Hall72 3 9-0 Brian Meehan 96 99 115 43537 Havana Beat45 3 9-0 Andrew Balding 100 103 116 41-111 Leading Light85 3 9-0 A P O´Brien — 110 125 14128 Libertarian77 3 9-0 Charlie Appleby 117 108 132 711134 London Bridge30 3 9-0 Jo Hughes 94 109 117 531353 Plinth31 3 9-0 A P O´Brien — 103 113 211870 Ralston Road28 3 9-0 John Patrick Shanahan 93 105 115 4-1212 Renew35 3 9-0 Marco Botti 91 100 117 136453 Secret Number24 3 9-0 Saeed bin Suroor 106 106 125 31-117 Talent56 3 8-11 Ralph Beckett 114 119 132 12-465 Willie The Whipper24 3 9-0 Ann Duffield 107 114 125 |
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I'm with you thebloob, big fan of secret number for this.
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Make that a 3rd huge Secret Number fan.
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Not played on anything yet myself in the Great race. Galileo Rock would be my fancy for the race atm if he gets the go-ahead. The step-up in trip will bring about more improvement in him & his two Derby runs have been excellent. Should be fav imo.
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I agree that Galileo Rock looks solid and would be a worthy favourite from the formbook. Somebody just hovered up everything in the antepost market on GR, only pennies but maybe someone in the know
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His form with Cap O'Rushes puts him a long way behind the others.
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Cap did not run to his best at York in my book.
His runs in the Ire Derby & Goodwood are solid runs imo. IF the Rock lines up at Doony & gets gd ground, he will take the beating imo. |
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I wouldn't put a quid on Galileo Rock, regardless of the ground.
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Get rid of Oaks next year thread ffs,Wide open open Leger Eye of turns up watch out?
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Secret Number not been 1st 2 last 5 runs, surely cant be that unlucky imo.
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Secret Number needs the trip and the Goodwood run is a lot better than the bare result
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Agree about Secret N & runs like he needs a trip. Add to that the boysNblue do have a gd record in the race.
But the big tip we are waiting for with bated breath is, what G83 is having his "quid" on  |
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Have to say i like secret number at a price...never seen so many so keen on a 16-1 chance on any of the threads before
looks like were all going to have it off |
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Yeah I went through Bin Suroor's record in the race the other day.
1995-2013; 13 runners in the Leger. 5 winners. 2 placed. 4 unplaced. Of these 4, 2 had been beaten in Conditions events as their Leger 'prep'. He had a 1-3 in 1998 and a 1-2 in 2009. He didn't have a runner between Rule of Law winning in 2004 and Mastery/Kite Wood 1-2 in 2009. He hasn't had a runner since either. Since 1995 all but 3 St Leger winners had run in either the King Edward VII Stakes or a Derby. The 3 who hadn't? Encke, Mastery and Nedawi. All 3 from Godolphin, but the last 2 trained by Bin Suroor. Then look at the quality of horse Bin Suroor's run in either the Gordon Stakes or Voltigeur since 1995; Hunter's Light - dual G1 winner Mastery - St Leger and HK Vase winner Meydan City - rubbish Rule of Law - Leger winner Mutafaweq - Leger winner Sea Wave - went down the Niel-Arc route instead, unshipped jockey in Niel but 3rd in HK Vase following year behind Borgia Stowaway - won the Sheema the following season Duke of Venice - rubbish Wareed - won Chaudeney next start and retired afterwards Nedawi - won Leger As has been said, Secret Number was painfully unlucky not to win the Gordon. He came to win the race & was blocked off. He then came BACK to win the race again and was blocked off again. Miles better than Cap O'Rushes (which puts him at at least Galileo Rock's level IMO) and miles better than the current Leger favourite. I thought Telescope was the winner. Obviously he won't be, but I'd be very surprised to see Secret Number beaten with a perfect Leger prep against all these others who haven't run since the back end of June. He's very likely to be a top quality horse, as evidenced by the horses Bin Suroor runs in the Gordon Stakes/Great Voltigeur, and the very fact he'll be running in the Leger looks a tip in itself. He should've won the Gordon Stakes, a race that 4 subsequent St Leger winners have won since 1995 - and what price would Secret Number be had he gotten a run at Goodwood? Given that Excess Knowledge is favourite, you have to assume that Secret Number would be favourite or thereabouts. Instead 16/1 is still available. Value. |
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In fact, just looking at those 11 horses he ran in either the Gordon Stakes or Great Voltigeur, of the 4 who actually ran in the St. Leger...all 4 won.
16/1... |
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Having done my nuts on Telescope I thought Galileo Rock was the next likely winner. He is totally devoid of pace and just stays all day. He is gaggin for this extra 2f. But you can't back him ante-post because he needs it Good or better (according to trainer) even though he won his maiden by 8 lengths on Soft.
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the market leaders like GR won't be going off much shorter on the day, but there is a lot of scope for Secret Number to shorten, I wouldn't be surprised by 8/1 on the day. The run in the Voltigeur wasn't great but Encke's was worse last year. If you ignore the result of the race at Goodwood and pretend the horse didn't get blocked badly, assume it got out and won cosy, because that is what would have happened, would it be 16/1 now? I doubt it
I'm already on at 20/1 but 16/1 still looks tempting |
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On breeding i'd have doubts about him tbh .. his half-brother was best at 1m to 10f.
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On breeding he is a doubtful stayer sint & it may well be that the horse just needs a true run 1m4f. On what he has shown so far, he looks short of G1 class (winning one that is)
Watching his races he does run like he wants a trip tho, we shall see. Personally there are a few in front of him in my book & he will need to improve for the step-up in trip, which on breeding would be far from certain. Still see the Rock as the one to beat myself, gd ground would be perfect for him & he looks sure to enjoy the Leger trip. |
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backed 2 for the race some weeks ago, good to see everyone liking secret number as he was my first choice.
Ive also backed willie the whipper at 66s with the magic sign a few weeks back. Tough race to deduce what horses have been lined up specifically for the race. |
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lads go nr nb
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The main hopes all stand their ground at the 5day stage.
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Mixed reports regarding the weather. From what I've seen Friday looks the worst possible day for a down poor so i'd hold any bets unless your fancy handles both soft & good.
Only one horse im interested in now after the defection of Telescope and that is Galileo Rock. His form with Trading Leather is the best on offer. |
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i like excess knowledge here...will love trip ,any cut wouldnt be a problem i wouldnt think ,trainer record obviously second to none...took all the 8s and 10s i could get....heres hoping !!!
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Eye of the storm just finished 2nd in a listed race at Galway so doubt he'll be in the leger.
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I seem to remember a filly winning the Fillies Leger, then the ST LEGER a couple or so days later, is my memory
playing tricks with me? Was it CANTELO? |
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"Secret Number is bred to be a mile and a quarter horse and he looks to be one of these nearly horses - he does not seem to win on the big occasion. For me, I would be surprised if he was good enough to win on Saturday. He is in good form and, indeed, did his best piece of work ever leading up to this race. But I would be a bit surprised to see him in the winner's enclosure."
Simon Crisford in the Sportinglife preview there. I haven't backed it myself but you backers can start counting your money imo. He puts punters away every time he opens his gob. |
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He puts punters away every time he opens his gob.
You mean like when he told everyone on ATR St Leger website that they really fancied Encke last year and couldn't believe he was 33/1 and had me dancing round my living room covered in notes? |
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This year's renewal is wide open.
Cap O Rushes - winner of Gordon Stakes perhaps fortuitously and good run in Irish derby. Needs cut underfoot but not sure he will get home over the trip. Excess Knowledge - don't like short priced horses that haven't won for a while (beaten last 4 and only a maiden win to its name) or have been unlucky lto. His form does not make him a 6/1 shot although the trip should be right up his street. Feel Like Dancing - not good enough for me. Can see it plodding on for around 5th Foundry - only two runs in its life. Not battle hardened enough for the race and wouldn't be surprised if he missed this Galileo Rock - needs fast ground according to trainer and unlikely to get this here. However has a 7 length win on soft ground to his name so goes on anything. Takes keen hold buty should get home but 7/2? Too short Leading Light - good form figures but how many Queens Vase winners come on and win this? Anyone know? Hasn't run in the right races for me to be considered for this although stamina not in doubt Libertarian - will love the track but chequered preparation and could either win or finish last Secret Number - not sure he will stay but definitely seen worse 16/1 shots Talent - overpriced at 16/1. Trainer makes a habit of having big priced soft ground winners at this meeting. Galloped on strongly to win Oaks and the last eight Oaks winners to run in the St Leger (from 1977 onwards) finished: 11121234 Selection - Talent 16/1 ew |
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eye of the tiger , love it !
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My only plays are my small ante posts on Excess Knowledge at 16s 12 and 10s, and Feel Like Dancing(my first choice) at 25/1.
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with all that rain today, I've gone for Libertarian taken the 8/1.
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going is now Good to Soft with more rain forecast.
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Rain fck off
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Foundry and Talent like the soft, are there any others?
Ladbrokes and Bet365 are NRNB |
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Aren't you on Lib, BJG? I thought Galileo Rock was a cert on Good or better tbh! Have him in a couple of acca's
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Libertarian will like soft, as will Cap O Rushes according to Crisford.
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Soft ground would be a help for Libertarian imo.
If it does come up soft on Sat? |