KGQE11 stakes...

Cirrus Des Aigles has only run twice with the word "firm" in the going description (from 38 runs).  RP says good/firm.
The rain needs to arrive and get into the ground.

Its was g/f when he won in Dubai last year. He does prefer it on the easy side & is a better horse over 10f. Hope he wins 2day & think he will if at his best or near to it.

Jul 27, 2013 -- 7:02AM, kincsem wrote:

Cirrus Des Aigles has only run twice with the word "firm" in the going description (from 38 runs).  RP says good/firm.The rain needs to arrive and get into the ground.

Yeah and the going description is very accurate isn't it....  Frankel in the Queen Anne for instance ran QUEEN ANNE STAKES (BRITISH CHAMPIONS SERIES) (GROUP 1)
(Class 1) (4yo+) 1m Good To Soft

Even the ground was actually Good To Firm...

CDA handles the ground fine, or it won't run.  Simple as that.

pedrobob • July 27, 2013 12:53 PM BST
BJT, you think Cirrus will will then?

I think mine is a little easier to read the sarcasm than yours.  Especially due to my smiley. 

I certainly think it is a chance in this field, but wouldn't touch it at those odds.  2nd most overrated horse that I can ever recall.

An overrated horse at under the odds, surely a lay then?

Yeah, just waiting to see if it goes lower before I pull the trigger.
Looking to lay CDA, and will be backing UNIVERSAL and EKTIHAAM.

Was on Trading Leather last start but just not enough there for me to back up again on it so sticking with those 3 plays...

Course    Ascot
Next Race    Saturday 27th July
Report Date    Saturday 27th July; 10:45 am
Going    Good to Firm (Good in places)
GoingStick    Standside: 8.6, Centre: 8.4, Farside: 8.4, Round: 8.0


Unless it dries up considerably over the next few hours, that is just Good.  No idea how they come to the conclusion of Good To Firm but based on the readings they are required to use for their description that is right on the money GOOD...

For the record, to back up my post at 1:21 PM BST

Report Date Tuesday 19th June; 8:30 am
Going Good to Soft
Going Stick Standside: 8.1, Centre: 8.3, Farside: 8.1, Round: 7.4

Course    Ascot
Next Race    Saturday 27th July
Report Date    Saturday 27th July; 10:45 am
Going    Good to Firm (Good in places)
GoingStick    Standside: 8.6, Centre: 8.4, Farside: 8.4, Round: 8.0

Ascot readings are misleading and dependent on vertidraining

As just proved the 1st race was .30 outside henrythenavigators track record

yes quick ground today and an 8mph wind behind them

although I dont make the ground as fast as it was on 2nd and 3rd day of royal ascot this year

Jul 27, 2013 -- 8:11AM, zilzal1 wrote:

Ascot readings are misleading and dependent on vertidrainingAs just proved the 1st race was .30 outside henrythenavigators track record

And how many 6f group races have they had on that straight course since the upgrade?

You'll have to ask Stickells how often they vertidrain, but you can get funny reading, thats from the horses mouth(or rather clerks)

yeah we used to get readings in the 10s ans 11s. think it was 10 odd when henrythenavigator won

The day HTN won, it was the slowest of the day though.  First time racing on the track, as every race set the course record.
We are talking about records of 5 years, where there is very very limited racing of Group quality on it.

For example, Miss Andretti ran the next race over 5F in 57.44.  So we are talking 1 extra furlong, and that taking 15 seconds to complete, in a sprint race.
The track was obviously fast that day, but to suggest that record means anything is a bit of a joke. 
Doesn't really matter what sort of uphill/downhill figures are relevant to that course, it is obvious that a fast run race would have netted a time closer to 1:11.

That being said, being .3 outside of the course record, where only a handful of statistics can be found, when the course record was run at least 1.5 seconds slower than it should have been certainly doesn't equate to a fast track.  Certainly not on that basis alone anyway.

Well its gone faster than this years RA 2yo winners, the Jubilee winner and the Wokingham winner for a start so id say it isnt good ground

Yes, but we are talking about the G1 race, which isn't run on the straight don't forget....

that hcap was 1m 37.78

that's a similar time to the britannia stakes this year so thats  very quick ground

The ground is hard to heavy.

Either way, have Galician and Trail Blaze running for me in that one, and got Yeager in the last. 

New track record for Galician as announced on channel 4

Very fast ground judging by those times, it's possible that it's already quickened up after the first race. Round course is often, but not always, a bit slower, but would be surprised if it was any slower than good to firm judging by how quick the straight is.

Maybe the horses are quicker.

very good performance from Novellist there. course record

2 secs quicker than harbinger. this is firm

Dont take any notice of readings at this gaff

I have it in my Tote Ten To Follow but not in real life.  Backed Trading Leather for small money.

Hugely impressive - well done backers.

I will prove to you it is not firm.

Trading Leather might have got closer had he not pulled hard early

GOING: GOOD TO FIRM (GOOD IN PLACES).
Must be true.

If it was a swimming pool the clerk would have good in the description.
Same for a concrete runway.

Trainer said that CDA had improved again since last run.  I actually believe it.

Novellist, beat him 4.5L last run in soft, and 6+ today. 

Any guesses as to rating?  Has to be pushing 155 for Novellist....  rotflmfao

Leave Frankel out of this.

^I wouldn't have mentioned it if CDA had won.

Frankel?

CDA is rated nearly 140?  This horse has gone back to back runs beating him total 11-12 lengths over slow and fast ground...

If he can do that to a horse that has apparantly improved and trained on, and rated around 140, then this must be the best we have seen...

fast by 5.40. nice

I'll probably be going around 129/130 for the winner on my figures, I'm quite confident the 2nd and 3rd have run close to my previous figures for them. I'll do them later

Timeform will have it 150 minimum....  Have to...

5.40 secs fast on good ground.

well done  Novelist  backers  genuine animal, though CDA  ran ok  on the ground   , needs soft
at his age

From the Racing Post website
Novellist is now vying for favouritism with Flintshire, Al Kazeem and Orfevre for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe with each available to back at 6-1.

Four joint favourites at 6/1 for a race in ten weeks time.

Jul 27, 2013 -- 10:26AM, mac99 wrote:

well done  Novelist  backers  genuine animal, though CDA  ran ok  on the ground   , needs soft at his age

And still gets beaten 5 lengths by the same horse?  Nothing to do with the ground.

Stevie

Your interpretation of the Buckhounds Stakes was far closer to reality than mine. Ektihaam obviously well below par today but safe to assume he's nowhere near as good as I'd hoped. Would be more use as a pacemaker if they continue to ride him like that. Like you, I thought Trading Leather did well considering where he was positioned early on. Not a surprise to see Novellist win, given that CDA is past his best, but it was a big surprise to see him win like that. I had him pegged as an ordinary Gp1 winner on his Saint-Cloud win. It's difficult to be sure with only one other race on the round course, sometimes races do just fall apart, but if that win was as good as it looked I have him improving 9lbs on his Saint-Cloud form and it would be up with the best performances I've seen in that race.

looks a big horse that Ektihaam though Figgis maybe he got jarred up on that ground, also I think he would have liked to have his own way in front.

Form wise the 3yos have probably run close to their last runs and Universal probably close to his Hardwicke run?

The ground was definitely faster than it was for Harbinger's King George especially on the straight course.

Pity we've only got a steadily run 4 runner hcap to compare it
to on the round although we do have yesterdays races and  I'm looking at the round course quickening up as much as the straight track did from yesterday.

No excuses for Ektihaam today  ,looked like he just jacked it  in , maybe  he was affected  by  his  near fall on the  bend last time out  and they  had not been  able to get enough work into him  , the drift out   to 12.5   on bf   before the off  indicates some  kind of fitness  issue ?  anyway would not have  won  so  that is  that .Think CDA may still improve   with a bit of give  but would not back him against  Novellist   to win  , well at   eight or ten to one  i might

Actually, Stevie, I don't want to do the horse an injustice but I'm more inclined to think the race may have fell apart. He did have good form in his own country and Italy last year and of course horses can improve 9lbs from one race to the next, but I'm not entirely convinced about today's race. Obviously the best horse on the day won but maybe the win looked better than it actually was? I'll have a proper look tomorrow.

CDA had no form on fast/firm ground so no surprise that he ran below form. TL & Hillstar are improving 3 yr olds who go on fast ground. No surprise there. Universal couln't make the pace in this class so no surprise. Ektihaam ran below form so that was a surprise. The winner was a solid horse who had never run on firm ground. Being by Monsun and with his best form on soft it was a surprise that he ran so well. I would have backed him if the rain had arrived but it hadn't so I didn't. He was on his toes in the paddock and is very average to look at. the easiest winner of the race since Montjeu I should think. I would take the form at face value and the time was top class (125 worth 130). But Montjeu couldn't win the Arc in the same year as his KG win, remember.

I'm not too sure that the time is top class, Sandown, I wouldn't be adamant one way or the other as there are a few ways of reading it. Galician's time holds it down, unless you take the view that the winner and second both improved. There's obviously the possibility that the round course was slower but the last race on the card doesn't really shed any light on the matter. I think it's one of those races where you just have to make a judgement call.

How do you know he ran below form Sandown? I know it looks likely but how do you know?

I can't see even the most contrarian punter thinking that was CDA's best form. If you think there's even a possibility that could be his best form, brigust, then backing him on the strength of such form was absurd.

If we are to say silly things like CDA ran to form because he's finished the same distance behind Novellist then are we to also assume Dunaden is a much better horse than CDA despite that horse having been beaten by st nix abbey who in turn was beaten by CDA? Perhaps we should also believe that Novellist has not even improved since last season where he was beat twice by Pastorius but hang on Pastorius was later beaten 6 lengths by CDA. If you take every result literally like this then you will end up tying yourself up in knots.

CDA looks on the downgrade to me. Here are post-race comments from beaten connections.

Trainer Corine Barande-Barbe reflected after her charge came home in fourth place: "Christophe said he needed a run - he took a breath three times which showed he needs a race and this [the rain] is coming too late. The going was quite fast. But I am not disappointed, competition always improves him. Even if we do work at home, it is not the same and he knows a lot as well.

"We might go to York next for the Juddmonte International but we have a date here in October (QIPCO Champions Day)."

Christophe Soumillon added: "He ran very well - he wasn't really fit - the horse needs a race. The speed we went and the track conditions, it was hard to follow that pace."

Jim Bolger, trainer of three-year-old Trading Leather, who was meeting his elders for the first time after winning the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby last time out, said: "That was very satisfactory. Everything went well - except for the last furlong!

"We probably could have done with a little more pace early on, but all in all we're very happy. We'll stick to the original plan, all being well - he'll go to York for the Juddmonte International, then to Leopardstown [for the Irish Champion Stakes] and then back here for the Champion Stakes on QIPCO British Champions Day."

Kevin Manning added: "We jumped off very well and turning in I thought we were going to win but I didn't realise how well Johnny (Murtagh) was going. He just picked me up - a very smart horse the winner."

Bolger added that his QIPCO 2000 Guineas and St James's Palace Stakes winner Dawn Approach was in "better than good form - mighty awesome form".

Sir Michael Stoute said that the rapidly-improving third-placed Hillstar, for whom this was a first Group One attempt after being supplemented on Monday at a cost of £75,000, was "going the right way. We're delighted with him and I don't think we'll be dropping him back in class now."

Ryan Moore said: "He's run a very good race - I was just caught behind Cirrus (Des Aigles) when I could have done with being a length closer but he has run a very good race."

Joe Fanning, partner of fifth Universal, said: "He's run a good race but was just a bit keen when the Bolger horse (Trading Leather) came upsides."

Graham Lee, rider of sixth Red Cadeaux, said: "He gave me a great ride and is a superstar - it is a privilege to ride him."

Olivier Peslier, on board seventh Very Nice Name, said: "It was very fast for him and he had no action on it and he couldn't follow the pace."

Dane O'Neill, on board eighth Ektihaam, said: "He just didn't turn up today - a disappointing run. It was too bad to be true, he didn't even finish his race."

Figgis and Steve. These questions are not silly. I have backed CDA in his last two runs knowing full well I thought he could be over rated. Even allowing for that I thought he should nearly win.
However isn't it odd when a horse runs below EXPECTATIONS he is thought to be below par. Goodness knows how many horses run in a similar way but are actually running to form.
Of course his age is a point. But isn't it odd that Red Cadeaux who has run a similar number of times and travelled much further to boot also ran below form. Red Cadeaux, like CDA, won his first Group 1 only recently after many races. Isn't it odd that Red Cadeaux also achieved his highest rating after finishing 2nd to Animal Kingdom whose main claim to fame is finishing 2nd to Wise Dan with Excelebration behind him?
Isn't it just possible that Novelist is an improver and a strong stayer (as Wohler quoted about German breeding) and that the 3 year olds benefited from their weight concession as Nathaniel did a couple of years ago? Isn't it possible.

Or just maybe CDA and Red Cadeaux hit the 7 year wall together? Is it not just possible that they have, this season, met a new order?

I also looked at the Dunaden/St Nic form but Novelist won and when a horse wins no-one knows how far he could have won had the race been run at a stronger pace etc. Plus Dunaden looks like a horse that needs a real stamina test as he may have found at St Cloud and as his Melbourne Cup form shows and the times St Nic beat him were on faster ground on sharp tracks.

Add to that you are asking for a horse that beat the course record easily never ran to form.

Think the ground played a part regarding Cirrus and at the age of seven the busy seasons he's had are probably catching up with him. He probably still has a good race in him on easier ground but not sure he will be hitting the heights of last season. Regardless I thought Novellist was very impressive and a worthy contender for the Arc. Also worth mentioning it's pleasing to see Trading Leather & Hillstar heading the right way.

Thanks for the quotes, Sint - I think Manning's are the most telling ones!

Trading Leather's optimum trip may well turn out be 10f but he has been campaigned very aggressively and they continue to ask a lot of him so I would n't want to support him in the Juddmonte or Irish Champion where he's likely to be opposed by fresher horses.

The way Hillstar finished his race made me think St Leger but he's not entered.I'll be taking a closer look at the Stoute horses who are entered in that race (Bold Sniper and Liber Nauticus).

Turned out to be a good race. Winner is clearly very good - arguably best 12f horse in Europe along with Flintshire. CDA ran well below his best probably due to ground but may also be on the downgrade.

Brigust, CDA didn't run below my expectation, which was that he'd run below form. The idea that most horses run to form in every race is ludicrous. If you believe there's a possibility he ran to form then you must believe that those in front of him are either top class (you were sure they weren't beforehand and it would go against your degeneration of the breed theory, so think we can rule that out), or you've backed a horse you think is barely capable of a 120 rating twice in Gp1s, which seems a bizarre way to bet.

Fig beating Red Cadeaux, Very Nice Nae and Ektihaam so far isn't a 120 rating. Had he won by a neck from Universal you would have readily claimed Universal ran above himself simply because of the distances back to the other runners.


So can you tell me where CDA ran below form? He beat Red Cadeaux 5+ lengths that ties in with CDA's form with St Nicholas Abbey through Dunaden/Sea Moon/Gentildonna etc.

The two 3 year olds were rated 118 and 111 and Nathaniel was rated 115 when he won as a 3 year old.

Hillstar won the same race Nathaniel won at Ascot before the King George and he beat a 92 rated horses whereas Hillstar beat a much higher rated horse. Similarly Trading Leather had won a classic.

Add to that Novelist had already beaten CDA this season.

Add to that he beat the course record easily.

So I would like someone to tell me where he ran below FORM. Not below EXPECTATIONS. 

He ran well below my expectations but that happens and horses eventually get rated accordingly. St Nicholas Abbey ran below my expectations in the 2000Gns but on lines through Goldikova, CDA and Canford Cliffs he probably ran to form and not his rating.

Brigust will be using races 5 years from now in an effort to prove Frankel was nothing special

If you can answer the question A_T it may be useful. I'm not accusing you of anything.

Add to that he beat the course record easily.

Says it all really.

Had he won by a neck from Universal you would have readily claimed Universal ran above himself simply because of the distances back to the other runners.

No, maybe the BHA handicapper would have but I don't pick one horse to use as a yardstick.

No it doesn't. You are better than that Figgis. For a horse to break the course record he has to be pretty fit I would have thought and the race was properly run so the form should be reliable. Unlike small runner, heavy ground races. How can that be 'Says it all really'?

Where did I use one horse? I mentioned and referred Novelist, Trading Leather, Hillstar, Universal, Red Cadeaux, Very Nice Name and Ektihaam.

The one horse would be Universal, unless you think that all distances between horses well beaten are always a true indication of ability? If that's the case you ought to have an even higher opinion of Frankel's Queen Anne win than Timeform?

For a horse to break the course record he has to be pretty fit I would have thought and the race was properly run so the form should be reliable.

I expect most horses to be fit in Gp1s. For a horse to break the course record the main requirement is very fast ground/strong tailwind. Yes the race is properly run and the form should be reliable, although it certainly isn't necessarily an indicator of great form. What I'd like to know is how does any of that prove that any individual beaten horse in the race ran to its best?

If you want to bring the QA into it excluding Excelebration the next 6 home haven't won a race since if you call that form. And I think only one minor winner has come out the the race altogether.

So lets just stick to CDA and the King George please Fig.  I'm not just cribbing I backed him on known form knowing the risks. You would also have to agree that Universal ran above himself in a race where the pace was helped by Ektihaam.

Ran to his best? How did it pan out betting wise? Possibly only Ektihaam and CDA ran below EXPECTATIONS. Ektihaam may be excused because we don't know his proper form yet but no-one has definitively pointed out through which horse CDA ran below form.

If Hillstar won a better Ascot race than Nathaniel did and who, by the way, is better than St Nic who is the same horse as CDA then Hillstar finishing just in front of CDA shouldn't be a surprise, should it?

No, I have Universal below his best, not surprising considering the ride.

If you think CDA ran to 120 then Universal ran his best race. I think the way the race was won suited Universal stamina wise so he was the improver. Novelist seems better this year as can be expected. Isn't it odd that some people think CDA improved at 6 yet cannot reconcile themselves that other horses can improve earlier. I think Trading Leather ran to form and Hillstar showed he is an improver. CDA ran to form on fast ground over 12 furlongs and no-one has yet pointed out otherwise. Red Cadeaux ran to form through St Nic and the Coronation Cup and CDA. Very Nice Name simlarly to RC and Ektihaam killed himself against Universal. Bookies love excuses.

This may have been CDA's 2nd run after a layoff but it was his 2nd run after a layoff when he met Frankel. No excuses there I hear.

Stevie

I have used the same allowance as for Galician's race, which has Galician and Trail Blaze improving a bit and the others running to or below their marks. I have Novellist improving 3lbs from his Saint-Cloud win to 128 on a Timeform scale. This has the rest running below par to some degree. However, that is nothing unusual when we have a wide margin winner in a Gp1, as while it is generally the sign of a good winning performance, it is also usually combined with the beaten horses not running to peak, imo. Possibly the round course could be rated slower, but I'm satisfied with that for the moment. I certainly wouldn't rule him out of the Arc but he isn't a stand out and, as Sandown says, it's not a given he'll be in the same form come October anyway.

Trading Leather won the Irish Derby but the Irish classics can be pretty poor. 
Cannot have Trading Leather for any money

I think Trading Leather ran to form

Hmm, brig, so a horse who won a poor race that you couldn't have at any money ran to form, beating CDA, who you say also ran to his best form, by nearly 4 lengths. Yet you chose to back the latter at a short price, can you explain?

Figgis as a punter I make decisions. As a punter I am often wrong. Thankfully not always. Those comments were widely repeated in yesterday's press. I could have sat on the fence and not lost money but I didn't and did. As a punter you eliminate horses for one reason or another. I openly questioned CDA's rating but still had him slightly above the others. I was right and wrong at the same time.
If you ignore CDA's form over 12f with CDA all you have left is a risky Champion Stakes from all of those runs.

Why don't you just point out where CDA didn't run to form. If it was so bl oody easy someone would have done so by now. Including you.

a risky Champion Stakes

Everybody else I've seen or heard thinks there was no fluke about that race, so risky in only your opinion, which, as you have just accepted, is often wrong.

Why don't you just point out where CDA didn't run to form

Well, anybody can choose to believe that Trading Leather would've finished nearly 4 lengths in front of CDA in those previous Group races, Hillstar 3 lengths in front of him and Universal less than a length behind. I just hope they don't punt seriously.

Figgis,
I have done the same allowance for straight and round too. This gave me galician on 98, Yeager 82 (without wfa), I therefore have 127 for Novellist with Trading Leather running to 106 (without wfa) which is the same as I gave him in the irish derby and Hillstar has also done the same figure as his last run  if I take off that sectional I gave him last time, normally I'd expect them to improve a pound or 2. Universal 110 improved on my previous figure but I feel I must have under-rated him before. Red Cadeaux I have running about a stone below form and Cirrus 19lb below his best. I used 11.4lb
per second and 1.9lb per length. my standard 148.8
anyway I've got to finish rating the other meetings now.
might look in later

I think from my own perspective the king george just confirmed my beliefs...

that these really are the worst crop of 3 year old middle distance horses we have seen for many years going back to the great kris kin...class wise anyway 2 seasons running a poor bunch

they both ran to form for me as trading leather whom ran choke out after his small break and even off fast fractions wouldn't settle...hillstar got a nice trip held up out of the speed duel that was happening up front and confirmed his ascot form...

novellist confirmed himself a decent winner of the race for me...have to say i didn't see it coming but the pace of the race suited after running in slower run french races which had obviously kept him under wraps, in regards his figure he was capable of running to, although to an extent the race fell in his lap although if like me you feel hillstar ran his race figure wise then he was still a good winner of the race...

people will knock CDA and he now has a lot to prove but he is still coming back to himself after a ligament injury... although 7 now given a 1m 1/4 on soft going and right race plus fitter (which he patently wasn't yesterday) he would still be on my radar at the right price later in the season...but he now has big questions to answer

universal ran a cracker after chasing the fast fractions and he will continue to pay his way against his own company

ektihaam looks one to be afraid of however... playing up before the start and not looking happy on fast ground to me... he looks one to back off as clearly is not an easy creature...the race he won earlier in the season with close examination fell in his lap with thomas running choke out and the hound main sequence in the line up who just wasn't interested and wants cut...it might be he handled the fast ground that day and now doesn't want it as was running full choke out in the hardwick back on fast ground...anyway he now comes with a big warning sign now...

it is hoped they now back off him and bring him back in lesser company on easier ground as he had looked progressive leading up to these last 2 mishaps

A very satisfying result for me personally, as Novellist was the only horse I had no doubts over going into the race. A few said he won't handle the ground, mainly because he hadn't raced on it before. But looking at his sires record, there wAs optimism regarding the going through Estimate, who improved for faster ground in the Gold Cup. Now we know that Novellist is versatile regarding the ground, proven over the trip in a fast or slow run race, and more than likely, he's still got improvement to come. A massive player for this years arc, irrelevant of the going.

What we now definitely know, is that the classic generation are a poor bunch. Using this race as a guide, which can be dubious, I can only rate the Irish derby winner as a group 3 horse when taking on his elders. And personally think that the classic crop will not win an all aged group 1 over a mile or more in this country, this season.

I don't know if Novellist has any engagements before the arc, if he has, then he has to be opposed. Hopefully, it's straight to the arc for him. On this performance alone, the 6/1 is more than generous. Would be very interesting if Fabre steps Intello up in trip for the Niel, or sticks to the 8-10f route.

Figgis I never said there was a fluke about the race. I clearly stated that So You Think and Snow Fairy had just tun in record breaking Arc. Snow Fairy did not have a clear run in the race. CDA 's jockey was done for excessive use. And apparently Nathaniel was given a hard time up front. Now add that to the King Geeorge and point out the queries over that result.

Why are you so selective with your comments? They are not my comments or observations they are actual facts. You may not like it and it may not fit in with your views, and you are often wrong too by the way. That doesn't make them my views.

twonky...

i take it you don't think that the 3 year old milers are up to scratch am i reading that right????

also why should novellist be opposed if he were to run before the arc...sorry but was just trying to understand your reasoning on both comments

CDA 's jockey was done for excessive use.

Under the newly introduced absurd rules, which were quickly amended and Soumillon was returned his prize money. A very selective comment, I would say.

I clearly stated that So You Think and Snow Fairy had just tun in record breaking Arc. Snow Fairy did not have a clear run in the race. CDA 's jockey was done for excessive use. And apparently Nathaniel was given a hard time up front. Now add that to the King Geeorge and point out the queries over that result.

Odd that there can be excuses for any number of horses that raced against CDA there, but none at all allowed for any of his own below par efforts.

You may call it selective but it was a rule ALL of the jockeys in the race had to abide by.

Figgis when a horse at 14/1 runs the race of his life it requires a good looking at. Funny how you said Universal could not be considered just that CDA obviously ran below form. You make it up as you go along just to try to prove a point.

Perhaps you don't think horses can run above themselves on odd occasions. Who knows.

Harry,

Yes, classic crop are overrated, just my opinion, and firmly believe the front 2 in the Sussex will be turned over by Declaration of War.

Novellist had a hard race yesterday, and like most top class horses they need a break of 6 weeks between races, especially after running such fast times. Can't think of any group 1 12f races in Europe that he would go for anyway. MayBe there's 1 in Germany.

Funny how you said [i]Universal could not be considered just that CDA obviously ran below form.[/i]

I don't even understand what that means?

Perhaps you don't think horses can run above themselves on odd occasions.

Of course they can. However, I do not cling on to that belief when the horse goes on to frank the form. I also do not back a horse in a Gp1 at a short price who I consider to be 4 lengths worse than a horse I wouldn't back with any money.

Figgis

I'm not too sure that the time is top class, Sandown,


I'm reasonably sure that it is. In fact, I have revised it to 130 worth 135 which is a big time fig. The Galician run has no effect for me; I have the round course fasterthan the straight course, which is the opposite of the way it usually is. I wonder if they watered more on the straight? Didn't feel as though there was any wind at the time. From paddock inspection, Novellist was on his toes but a notch or two down from being a proble. In fact, he looked like the only one who was really up for it. Red Cadeaux's looks belied his price. TL and HS were fine.


brigust1

How do you know he ran below form Sandown? I know it looks likely but how do you know

If we take his run behind when second to Frankel,he showed nothing at the end of his race this time. He was outsprinted by the winner over the last 3f by around 6-7 lengths. On times and collateral form he ran some 15lb below his highest rating.He looked fine in the paddock but pullled on his way to post. He was kep off the pace but had every chance turning for home being only 2 lngth behind Novellist at the 3f pole.
I think we just have to conclude that 12f on very fast ground are not his optimum conditions.

Sandown do you not think that may be the crux of the matter? In his small field, heavy ground runs they go conservatively then CDA quickens away etc. Sometimes when the horses around him are just as quick over shorter they beat him and that is why he gets beaten so often. Plus in Meydan he ran exactly that kind of race quickening clear 4 out then holding on.
This was an end to end and found him out. Not that he was below form but that he never stayed properly and that is his form.

well thats a shame twonky think you are very wrong about the 3 year old milers...

declaration of war is just an average winner of the queen anne and will do well to get within 3 lengths of dawn approach who for me is well up scratch in regards top class 3 year old milers go...toronado can follow him home

the older bunch of milers are an incredibly poor bunch for me anyway...good luck if you wager the horse

fair enough in regards novellist although for me i always like an arc horse to prep... small race or not

Sandown

if you have the round course faster, how are you arriving at a comparison for your big time rating?

figgis

I can use the sectionals to some extent and Big Thunder fits in nicely with an improved performance. If i had the round course allowance the same as the straight then the improvement for BT would be unrealistic. So, I am using the lower grade to set the maxiimum for me which is the way I prefer to work.


brigust1

CDA's best figures for me when winningare at 10f with cut. His 12f figs are below. conclusion. His 12f form is below his 10f form and he is better on softer ground. So did he run below form? Not if you define his 12f form being sig below his 10f form. In which case he was no 2/1 chance which was the conclusion I expressed in an earler post. In short, he was a poor fav.uner the prevailing conditions.

Sandown, ok but the sectionals are still at the mercy of an accurate going allowance. Your round course standards must be significantly slower than mine. In my view, round course average times will be somewhat slower simply because the ground is often slower.

So reading between the lines you are saying he ran to his 12f fast ground form. That is exactly what I have been saying all along when comparing him with his run against St Nic. It is a pity about St Nic because that would have answered a few questions.

figgis

The thing is that I have found that there is a maximum speed that horses can reach - they just cannot go faster than a certain speed or fast finishing split and this helps me to set a limit - the going allowance just has to reflect this. When the allowance based on final times gives a finishing split that is just too fast to be real, then I adjust for that.

brigust

I think that's fair comment, although of course, to repeat the form at 12f inc yesterday is sig below his best form- which is at 10f on softer grnd.

Brigust, CDA's rating his based on his better 10f performances. When people are saying he didn't run to form they are obviously talking about his best rating. To start talking about he ran to his 12f rating is ridiculous. He didn't run to his best, which is what his price was based on and what he should be judged on as a racehorse.

I know his main rating is Fig, I have said repeatedly I disagree with that and the Champion Stakes form etc. This is slightly detached and that is why I constantly referred to his defeat of St Nic over 12f. As far as betting was concerned through the St Nic form I felt he had a favourites chance but declared often that I was worried about the trip. As far as yesterday was concerned I think he ran to form and use St Nic races for comparison where others think he was way below form. They don't say compared with his 10f form they just say he wasn't back to his best suggesting if he was at his best he would have won. I don't agree with that.

So CDA ran as well yesterday as he did in Dubai? And Trading Leather is 5l better than SNA? That will come as a surprise  to many in Ireland.

Sandown Joined:
The thing is that I have found that there is a maximum speed that horses can reach - they just cannot go faster than a certain speed or fast finishing split and this helps me to set a limit

I certainly have no argument with that. However, it can only give you a guide to how fast a horse isn't, not necessarily tell you how fast the horse is. The highest I could possibly rate the performance is 134, but all things considered, mainly the other times, but also the style of the win (didn't travel or quicken quite as well as I'd expect for such a high performance against that opposition), likely improvement from his previous run, the way the race was run, no great depth to the field, some horses running below par, some expectedly, some unexpectedly, then I'm happy with the 128 that the time comparison reaches. Just have to see what happens in the future, although as we both know that won't definitely tell us how good he was yesterday.

Time will tell A_T. St Nic never won a classic and the Racing Post trophy he won he beat Elusive Pimpernel. At this stage in his career he had beaten Layali Andalus who is a 95 rated handicapper and Elusive Pimpernel who never won a race again and was a Gr3 horse at best. Then he returned to be beaten by Unaccompanied.

Of his 6 Group 1 wins he beat Red Cadeaux (a single Gr1 win), Midday (never beat the boys), Dunaden (cannot win a Gr1 inEurope), Elusive Pimpernel (Gr3 winner at best) and  Sea Moon (couldn't win a Gr1). His best run could have been in the Sheema Classic but Very Nice Name was 3rd. Make hay out of that if you wish.

Very impressive performance by Novellist in yest KG. Little bit surprised he handled the fast ground as well as he did & win as comf (5L) Looks a very progressive 4yo colt indeed.
The 3yos ran as I thought they would, well but not up to winning a G1 all-age contest at the highest level as the GB&IRE 3yo mid-dist colts are no great shakes & there is not a lot between a handful of them. The fav (Cirrus) ran some way below his best for the 2nd time this season, would want to see him over 10f with some ease in the ground next time before I would say for sure that he has not returned the same horse this season, we shall see. The Arc is shaping up into a cracker if they all get there I top form.