Lockinge Stakes - 18th May Newbs.

Sorry, DOW won over 8f last time out, before that he won over 11 and 10f.

NO. DRAW    HORSE    AGE    WGT    TRAINER RTF%    JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR
1     1333-2    Aljamaaheer21      4    9-0    Roger Varian65    Paul Hanagan     110    120    128
2     4051-3    Amaron39      4    9-0    Andreas Lowe         —    114    131
3     4618-3    Chil The Kite22      4    9-0    Hughie Morrison50         104    106    125
4     04232-    Cityscape210      7    9-0    Roger Charlton60         124    124    137
5     411-1    Declaration Of War34      4    9-0    A P O´Brien75         —    80    128
6     32222-    Farhh244      5    9-0    Saeed bin Suroor    Silvestre De Sousa     124    136    140
7     6304-1    Fencing17      4    9-0    John Gosden    William Buick     —    105    129
8     9170-4    Libranno22    5    9-0    Richard Hannon76         112    105    131
9     512-87    Penitent13      7    9-0    David O´Meara41         115    113    131
10     3006-0    Reply49    4    9-0    A P O´Brien75         —    103    126
11     285-42    Sovereign Debt17      4    9-0    Michael Bell43         111    104    128
12     0150-1    Trumpet Major22      4    9-0    Richard Hannon76         114    126    131
13     1127-    Beauty Parlour231      4    8-11    Sir Henry Cecil73    Tom Queally     119    134    136

SJ went 16/1 Fencing long gone now

Is he a definite runner? Only raced last week..

Ground looks like being at least Good, given they are talking about watering!

3/1 City
3/1 Farrh
5/1 DOW
15/2 Trumpet
8/1 Beauty P
10/1 Fencing
12/1 Aljaamerheer

5/1 for DOW with Billies.

If anyone fancies something to win this race then it might be worth looking at the Queen Anne market too. E.G Aljamaaheer is 12/1 to win this race, but 50/1 for Ascot. He needs very quick ground.

Can't have Farrh over a mile on quick ground tbh. He doesn't have much speed.

Stan James have made Farhh their 2/1 favourite for Saturday's Lockinge Stakes with the Godolphin five-year-old set to face up to 12 rivals at Newbury.

The firm's Rory Jiwani told Bettingpro.com: "Fencing has been supplemented meaning there are a total of 13 entries for Saturday's Lockinge. It certainly looks a competitive renewal but there is no superstar following the retirements of Frankel and Nathaniel.

"Farhh has finished second on his previous four starts but he's 2/1 to go one better at Newbury with Aidan O'Brien's Declaration of War and Roger Charlton's Cityscape next best at 3/1.

Officials at Newbury will monitor the weather before deciding whether to water ahead of their two-day weekend fixture.

Saturday's meeting features the JLT Lockinge Stakes and conditions are currently described as good to firm, but with showers forecast.

Clerk of the course Richard Osgood explained on Monday: "Rain is forecast for tomorrow, between 10-20 millimetres, but I don't think we'll get the upper end of that scale.

"For the rest of the week it's sunshine and showers. It's more like April weather really as the temperatures are not too high, a maximum of 13-14C.

"If we don't get much rain tomorrow we may water on Wednesday as ideally I'd like us to be on the easy side of good to firm."

So they are forecast some reasonable rain, with unpredictable showers later on, and he's still thinking about getting the hosepipe out. Sweet jesus.

does yer head in

Does anyone know much about Amaron? Can't say I know much about his form or whether he's going to run but 25/1 looks big for a Group 1 winner.

The JLT Lockinge Stakes is the big race on Saturday 18th May, a group 1 run over a mile at Newbury. Last year’s race was won by the mighty Frankel but this year’s renewal looks far more open and will be contested by many horses that were forced to play second fiddle to Frankel last year.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 7-12-49
5yo: 2-4-22
6yo: 1-1-11
7yo+: 0-0-8
4yos record of 7-12-49 compares well against all horses aged 5+: 3-5-41.
The 3 winners aged 5+ were all previous group 1 winners.

Gender
Fillies/mares (3-0-8) have gained 3 win from just 8 runners in this. All 3 female winners have won a group over a mile the previous year. 2 of the 3 were trained by Michael Stoute.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had had 8 to 17 career starts
10 of 10 winners won over a mile or further
8 of 10 winners had won a group 1  (1 exception finished 2nd in three group 1's)
7 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season (2 of 3 exceptions ran in Sandown Bet365 Mile that season)
9 of 10 winners were having their first run in the race
6 of 10 winners were having their first course start (other 4 had won here)
10 of 10 winners were officially rated 113 or higher

Other Races
Highest placed finisher from previous QEII Stakes: 2114051 (3-1-7)
Highest placed finisher from previous Sussex Stakes: 53845111 (3-1-8)
Record of first 4 from previous year's 2000 Guineas: 1354131 (3-1-7)
Bet365 Mile winner (Trumpet Major): 5365414 (1-1-7)
Joel Stakes winner (Penitent): 615 (1-0-3)
Premio Vittorio Di Capua winner (Amaron): 2 (0-1-1)
Previous season's Craven Stakes winner (Trumpet Major): 53 (0-1-2)
Thoroughbred Stakes winner (Trumpet Major): 29 (0-1-2)
Park Stakes winner (Libranno): 57 (0-0-2)
Criterion Stakes winner (Libranno): 53 (0-0-2)
4 of 10 winners ran in previous season's QEII Stakes, finishing 2211
3 of 10 winners (last 3) ran in previous season's Sussex Stakes, finishing 211
3 of 7 winners aged 4 ran in previous season's St James Palace, finishing 611
3 of 7 winners aged 4 ran in previous season's 2000 Guineas, finishing 231
2 of 7 winners (last 2) aged 4 ran in previous season's Greenham Stakes, finishing 21
2 of 7 winners aged 4 ran in previous season's Irish 2000 Guineas, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Eclipse Stakes, finishing 18
2 of 10 winners ran in the Bet365 Mile last time, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Champion Stakes, finishing 54
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 25
2 of 3 female winners ran in previous season's Sun Chariot, finishing 15

Trainers
Richard Hannon (2-1-9) has trained 2 of the last 3 winners of this race.
Henry Cecil (1-3-6) trained Frankel to win it last year and has also seen 3 of his 5 other runners make the places.
Saeed Bin Suroor (1-2-7) has trained the winner and 2 close seconds from 7 runners since 2003.
Aidan O’Brien (1-1-7) saddled Hawk Wing to win it in 2003 and Excelebration to finish 2nd last year.
Michael Bell (1-0-1) & John Gosden (1-0-3) have both also trained the winner in past 10 years.

Price
10 of 10 winners were priced 9/1 or below & came from the first 4 in the betting.
Not a race to be looking for a big outsider with last 10 winners going off at single figure odds.
Favourites (7-0-10) have won 7 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 8.56.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
·         Aged 4 (or a multiple group 1 winner aged 5 or 6)
·         Fillies & mares do well
·         Won over a mile or further
·         Previously won a group 1
·         Having first run of 2013 or ran in Bet365 Mile
·         Officially rated 113 or higher
·         Course winner or having first run at Newbury
·         Finished in first 2 in last season’s QEII and/or Sussex Stakes
·         Finished in first 3 in 2012 St James Palace, Greenham and/or a 2000 Guineas
·         From the first 4 in the betting
·         Trained by Richard Hannon or Henry Cecil

Very wet in Newbury today and still raining. If he waters it'll be a disgrace!

I can't see that many who played second fiddle to Frankel. Looks like a very poor Group 1 race not worthy of the name with only one proper Group 1 winner and she obviously has issues.

cityscape is a solid group 1 miler.............the rest are not

Farrh looks a worthy favourite, not much value in that price though for him first time out, even though he has a 100% fto record, I'm sure there will be better 2/1 shots.

I think at the prices I'll side with fencing, looks a different horse after the op, seriously though, possible he can now rekindle all of his 2 year old promise, he was impressive last time although he will of course have to step up again.

Most of them want fast ground. The ones with form/wins on Soft are Farhh,Cityscape,DOW & Beauty Parlour.  IF it is soft you can forget Trumpet Major,Fencing,Aljamaaheer.

Beauty Parlour for me. Don't think it will actually be soft but the rain will certainly have helped.

No idea on why she was moved, what caused the big gap in races after French Oaks and then the dreadful run, but connections had always thought world of her and she had previously looked fantastic. At the price I'm happy to give her another chance.

fencing has never run on fast ground.

What I mean to say is although his sire suggests he'll be a lot better on fast ground, he certainly hasn't looked inconvenienced by good g/s and has put up decent enough performances.

Wish I had taken the 5/1 about DOW. 13/8 now.

Heaven only knows how he can now be a 13/8 shot in a group 1 based on his form...shocking price.

2/1 now.

Ground update anyone ..

Farhh is by far the stand out bet in this race at the current prices.

Good to Firm no issue for Pivotals, could have easily been Eclipse and Moulin winner last year.

Trainer has excellent record in this race.

Goes very well fresh.

9/2 - 5/1 fill ya boots.

Declaration Of War for me sintonian ...... he'll put in a performance like Hawk Wing back in the day!

lay this fav all day boys

this has got to be the worst favourite i have seen for a race for a long time...

i really like faarh at the prices and is a strong play for me....beauty parlour is also a strong player but not sure how she will run on good to firm ground both would prefer cut but declaration of war is just horrible at these prices and must be opposed...

i had faarh down as a tissue 7-4 shot so am happy to accommodate the 9-2 on offer good luck sintonian with the declaration of war who you obviously wished you had taken the 5's about, so you cannot lose with people on here if it wins

a real betting race for me however and a place lay on cityscape at around evens should also be played with the trainers horses well behind

Harry, Cityscape may not be good enough, but I can't imagine he won't be ready to run his race. This will have been nominated as a massive target some time ago, and Charlton had his Gordon Richards winner (name has escaped me) ready to do himself justice almost a month ago.

Run since 1958 and never won by a 7 yr old.

morning all, normally i have a strong opinion on most G1 affairs and esp one like this with older horses and loads of from to go by but this is far from a classic renewal and im just going to have a small play on Reply at big odds to lay off in running around the 40 mark, the horse goes well fresh and loves the good to firm ground, not many others can say that.

fav out to 3.4 and likely to keep drifting

Al Kazeem, Howellsy.

Given I missed the price on DOW I won't be betting in this race but still hope he wins as he is in my TTF list. On form, he shorter than he should be, but he's never been tried in this company and is 5/6. So, basically, if you back him it's on his potential to improve/peak. There are negatives about most in this race so one to watch for me.

I agree with the consensus of opinion here that DOW is ridiculously short, even with the drift, and my first instinct was to lay it. However, the price on Farrh is suspiciously big. Often you can see a runner that the public has underestimated compared to your own analysis but you usually can see the reasons why. I can't see any reason why Farrh would be so big here unless somebody knows something I don't. Obviously Cityscape is (was?) a good horse but I can't have a 7yo for this. Take him and Farrh out of the equation and DOW could be a risky lay. Maybe I'm overthinking things with Farrh and he'll turn out to be one of the bets of the season but I'm reluctantly sitting this one out.

*Farhh

I've never seen Farhh as a miler to be honest. His two best runs were in the Eclipse and POW. After his 2nd to Moonlight Cloud he apparently had surgery to remove a chip in a joint. Minor stuff otherwise he'd not be running. With DOW at least he has fitness on his side, you would think!

I have hardly anything between his best 8f and 10f runs, even if DOW has made significant improvement as a 4yo, I still find it odd that Farhh is available as an each way bet to nothing, as on all known form he would be very difficult to keep out of the frame.

Plus he has an excellent record fto.

well for me this race comes down to ratings...cityscape is basically a 123 peak horse which is why he has always struggled in top company...beauty parlour is the naughty one for me because on adjusted i don't have with much to find with the principles...

basically the war horse as hard as i try... through other horses he can only be have down at present as a 118 horse on all form shown...he just cannot be any more...i had him down as a realistic 7-1 chance because he has only shown potential...ask yourself the question if he was trained by any trainer in ireland bar bolger what price would he be?? he is horrible here at 5-2 and even if he wins i will just view it as he has improved a stone and i can't legislate for that much improvement at this time and certainly have no wish to find out at the odds

faarh for me is so solid i have him down at 125+ after running all last season against proven group 1 horses and for me the mile is no trouble also goes particularly well off the lay off...if ever there was a weak enough group 1 in europe for him to win this is certainly the race for him...a couple of lines of form gives me the belief he can take care of the other proven group 1 cityscape...

like i say the naughty one is the cecil horse for me as i cannot get to the bottom of her form wise... she does bring group 1 form to the table but as with all filly form it is very difficult to evaluate her...today will tell us a lot about her moving forwards...

Bollocks! . Well done Harry and anybody else who backed the best horse in the race and had the bottle to ignore the early market. Have to say what appalling judgement from Ballydoyle to rate that horse so highly.

This will be champion miler this year  - the 3yos won't get near it. Goodness knows what DoW's reputation is based on.

cheers figgis only the price it was on the back of the trainer form imo anyways good result

that was the worst favourite in all my years studying race form horrible

well done aurelius who i see was also keen

Wooosh! Definitely a stand out at the prices.

wd Aurelius,Judo,Harry.

Glad I missed the 5/1 on DOW has he ran, shall we say, below expectations there.

Cityscape finished last.

Crisford continued: "He's in the Prince of Wales's and Queen Anne at Ascot and we will wait for the five-day stage before deciding where to go. We had thought a mile and a quarter was his best trip but after that I'm not so sure."

The Queen Anne looks the likely target for Sovereign Debt after this career-best effort. Trainer Michael Bell said: "That was a terrific run. I'd have been happy being beaten four or five lengths. He hasn't won at Listed level yet, but as he likes Ascot I expect we'll go for the Queen Anne."

Declaration Of War got upset in the stalls and, after seeing him come in a well-beaten fifth, trainer Aidan O'Brien said: We'll take him home and see; obviously there must be an excuse."

The other leading fancy Cityscape was among the first beaten, eventually trailing in last of the 12 runners and trainer Roger Charlton said: "He hated the quick ground."

will he really go for the queen anne?

graham motion said this the other day

"The owners (Arrowfield Stud, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum, and Team Valor International) prefer a credential for the horse at a mile and I think the uphill nature of the Ascot course will be a stiff enough test to allow his stamina to come into play,"

so the sheikh bought 29% of animal kingdom, and they've picked that race for him because they need a group 1 mile on his CV for stud purposes

i can't seem him messing up his own investment, particularly given how well farhh ran in the prince of wales last year, finishing like a train after getting caught on the rail

i mean after all, it's not like horse racing is about the sport, it's a business

totally baffling gamble on the Ballydoyle horse

thought it would drift but was able to keep laying at shorter and shorter

weird one for me but pleasing betting wise

but I don't like so at odds with the market, know what I mean?

The betting in this race nearly gave me kittens. I laid 9/1 and 8/1 DoW very early and I thought
I must have made a total howler then, when the market pushed it down to short favourite. It knocked
my confidence and I ended up feeling I had a lucky escape. Stupid really, because retrospectively
my tissue was pretty close to right. If I was actually the shrewdy I want to be, I'd have filled me
boots.

Better days ahead for Declaration Of War gents. Didn't really fall right for him today.

Pleased for Saeed bin Suroor, I met him in Epsom back in the day and he does a brilliant job for them.

Joseph O'Brien reported after the race that favourite Declaration of War had become upset in the stalls before the race.

Bit of a lame excuse?

whether it got upset or not it was never a 5/4 shot

would not have backed it at 5/1

The international classifications got it right, if an allowance was made for the age of CITYSCAPE, a good job well done!!!!
12 lbs difference between FAHHR, CITYSCAPE and DECLARATION OF WAR.

There has never been

Totally agree with your pre-race thoughts on Farhh, Figgis

Couldn't back it at 5/1 when it's doubled in price in the week, seemingly unbacked by anyone at all, then that happens.
Strange, strange betting on that race.  His form was standout best, yet is freely available at 5/1 all morning, Godolphin have a winner then Crisford again warns that Farhh'll come on for the run and is 'rusty', bits and pieces into 10/3 as Cityscape's legs seemed to fall off.  Godolphin, on the back of a drugs scandal and legendarily poor at this time of year, have three winners on the day all by wide margins.
You couldn't make it up!

Word on the street is the Ballydoyle boys think something must've been amiss with their horse (but don't losers always say that!)

Eitehr way, it wasn't beating Farhh.

Declaration Of War got upset in the stalls and, after seeing him come in a well-beaten fifth, trainer Aidan O'Brien said: We'll take him home and see; obviously there must be an excuse."

the fav was a massive lay, there was nothing that suggested he was about to win a race like this

if AOB had rung me to tell me to get on I still woulda laid it

as I said earlier, weird feeling watching an already short price shorten even more when you think it's a cert loser

bit surreal

I don't actually recall seeing him upset in the stalls tbh. Did anyone see that? I was wondering if the ground was too quick for him, possibly, even though I thought he'd handle it. They did pull out Beauty Parlour because of it and Cityscape ran a shocker.

Maybe he was just beaten by better horses.

Eventually we have reached the RIGHT conclusion and by PETES last observation.
Must try harder, BALLYFOIL!!!!

Not often ''the lads'' leave their cash behind. Fair to say they got it back today plus interest. Looks a really top horse to me.