Horse Antepost
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Beauty Parlour
Declaration of War
Cityscape
Fencing
Trumpet Major
Farhh
Aljamaaer
Looks pretty decent. Beauty Parlour is the interesting one given she is a classic winner and now trained by Sir Henry. She was pretty disappointing on her last run, but it was her first for the new yard so possibly afford her the benefit of the doubt?
Cityscape sets the standard, we know his limits and is a decent horse, but you'd like to think one of the other may improve past him.
Declaration of War is dropping back to 8f after winning over 10f last time, but he could still be anything for me. He is 3/4 since joining AOB and the defeat came when having his first run for the yard where he was a massive drifter on course. I think they will go to the Queen Anne after this and then the Eclipse at Sandown.
Declaration of War
Cityscape
Fencing
Trumpet Major
Farhh
Aljamaaer
Looks pretty decent. Beauty Parlour is the interesting one given she is a classic winner and now trained by Sir Henry. She was pretty disappointing on her last run, but it was her first for the new yard so possibly afford her the benefit of the doubt?
Cityscape sets the standard, we know his limits and is a decent horse, but you'd like to think one of the other may improve past him.
Declaration of War is dropping back to 8f after winning over 10f last time, but he could still be anything for me. He is 3/4 since joining AOB and the defeat came when having his first run for the yard where he was a massive drifter on course. I think they will go to the Queen Anne after this and then the Eclipse at Sandown.
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Sorry, DOW won over 8f last time out, before that he won over 11 and 10f.
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NO. DRAW HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
1 1333-2 Aljamaaheer21 4 9-0 Roger Varian65 Paul Hanagan 110 120 128 2 4051-3 Amaron39 4 9-0 Andreas Lowe — 114 131 3 4618-3 Chil The Kite22 4 9-0 Hughie Morrison50 104 106 125 4 04232- Cityscape210 7 9-0 Roger Charlton60 124 124 137 5 411-1 Declaration Of War34 4 9-0 A P O´Brien75 — 80 128 6 32222- Farhh244 5 9-0 Saeed bin Suroor Silvestre De Sousa 124 136 140 7 6304-1 Fencing17 4 9-0 John Gosden William Buick — 105 129 8 9170-4 Libranno22 5 9-0 Richard Hannon76 112 105 131 9 512-87 Penitent13 7 9-0 David O´Meara41 115 113 131 10 3006-0 Reply49 4 9-0 A P O´Brien75 — 103 126 11 285-42 Sovereign Debt17 4 9-0 Michael Bell43 111 104 128 12 0150-1 Trumpet Major22 4 9-0 Richard Hannon76 114 126 131 13 1127- Beauty Parlour231 4 8-11 Sir Henry Cecil73 Tom Queally 119 134 136 |
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SJ went 16/1 Fencing
 long gone now |
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Is he a definite runner? Only raced last week..
Ground looks like being at least Good, given they are talking about watering! 3/1 City 3/1 Farrh 5/1 DOW 15/2 Trumpet 8/1 Beauty P 10/1 Fencing 12/1 Aljaamerheer |
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5/1 for DOW with Billies.
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If anyone fancies something to win this race then it might be worth looking at the Queen Anne market too. E.G Aljamaaheer is 12/1 to win this race, but 50/1 for Ascot. He needs very quick ground.
Can't have Farrh over a mile on quick ground tbh. He doesn't have much speed. |
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Stan James have made Farhh their 2/1 favourite for Saturday's Lockinge Stakes with the Godolphin five-year-old set to face up to 12 rivals at Newbury.
The firm's Rory Jiwani told Bettingpro.com: "Fencing has been supplemented meaning there are a total of 13 entries for Saturday's Lockinge. It certainly looks a competitive renewal but there is no superstar following the retirements of Frankel and Nathaniel. "Farhh has finished second on his previous four starts but he's 2/1 to go one better at Newbury with Aidan O'Brien's Declaration of War and Roger Charlton's Cityscape next best at 3/1. |
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Officials at Newbury will monitor the weather before deciding whether to water ahead of their two-day weekend fixture.
Saturday's meeting features the JLT Lockinge Stakes and conditions are currently described as good to firm, but with showers forecast. Clerk of the course Richard Osgood explained on Monday: "Rain is forecast for tomorrow, between 10-20 millimetres, but I don't think we'll get the upper end of that scale. "For the rest of the week it's sunshine and showers. It's more like April weather really as the temperatures are not too high, a maximum of 13-14C. "If we don't get much rain tomorrow we may water on Wednesday as ideally I'd like us to be on the easy side of good to firm." |
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So they are forecast some reasonable rain, with unpredictable showers later on, and he's still thinking about getting the hosepipe out. Sweet jesus.
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does yer head in
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Does anyone know much about Amaron? Can't say I know much about his form or whether he's going to run but 25/1 looks big for a Group 1 winner.
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The JLT Lockinge Stakes is the big race on Saturday 18th May, a group 1 run over a mile at Newbury. Last year’s race was won by the mighty Frankel but this year’s renewal looks far more open and will be contested by many horses that were forced to play second fiddle to Frankel last year.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 4yo: 7-12-49 5yo: 2-4-22 6yo: 1-1-11 7yo+: 0-0-8 4yos record of 7-12-49 compares well against all horses aged 5+: 3-5-41. The 3 winners aged 5+ were all previous group 1 winners. Gender Fillies/mares (3-0-8) have gained 3 win from just 8 runners in this. All 3 female winners have won a group over a mile the previous year. 2 of the 3 were trained by Michael Stoute. Recent/Past Form 9 of 10 winners had had 8 to 17 career starts 10 of 10 winners won over a mile or further 8 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (1 exception finished 2nd in three group 1's) 7 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season (2 of 3 exceptions ran in Sandown Bet365 Mile that season) 9 of 10 winners were having their first run in the race 6 of 10 winners were having their first course start (other 4 had won here) 10 of 10 winners were officially rated 113 or higher Other Races Highest placed finisher from previous QEII Stakes: 2114051 (3-1-7) Highest placed finisher from previous Sussex Stakes: 53845111 (3-1-8) Record of first 4 from previous year's 2000 Guineas: 1354131 (3-1-7) Bet365 Mile winner (Trumpet Major): 5365414 (1-1-7) Joel Stakes winner (Penitent): 615 (1-0-3) Premio Vittorio Di Capua winner (Amaron): 2 (0-1-1) Previous season's Craven Stakes winner (Trumpet Major): 53 (0-1-2) Thoroughbred Stakes winner (Trumpet Major): 29 (0-1-2) Park Stakes winner (Libranno): 57 (0-0-2) Criterion Stakes winner (Libranno): 53 (0-0-2) 4 of 10 winners ran in previous season's QEII Stakes, finishing 2211 3 of 10 winners (last 3) ran in previous season's Sussex Stakes, finishing 211 3 of 7 winners aged 4 ran in previous season's St James Palace, finishing 611 3 of 7 winners aged 4 ran in previous season's 2000 Guineas, finishing 231 2 of 7 winners (last 2) aged 4 ran in previous season's Greenham Stakes, finishing 21 2 of 7 winners aged 4 ran in previous season's Irish 2000 Guineas, finishing 21 2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Eclipse Stakes, finishing 18 2 of 10 winners ran in the Bet365 Mile last time, finishing 31 2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Champion Stakes, finishing 54 2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 25 2 of 3 female winners ran in previous season's Sun Chariot, finishing 15 Trainers Richard Hannon (2-1-9) has trained 2 of the last 3 winners of this race. Henry Cecil (1-3-6) trained Frankel to win it last year and has also seen 3 of his 5 other runners make the places. Saeed Bin Suroor (1-2-7) has trained the winner and 2 close seconds from 7 runners since 2003. Aidan O’Brien (1-1-7) saddled Hawk Wing to win it in 2003 and Excelebration to finish 2nd last year. Michael Bell (1-0-1) & John Gosden (1-0-3) have both also trained the winner in past 10 years. Price 10 of 10 winners were priced 9/1 or below & came from the first 4 in the betting. Not a race to be looking for a big outsider with last 10 winners going off at single figure odds. Favourites (7-0-10) have won 7 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 8.56. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: · Aged 4 (or a multiple group 1 winner aged 5 or 6) · Fillies & mares do well · Won over a mile or further · Previously won a group 1 · Having first run of 2013 or ran in Bet365 Mile · Officially rated 113 or higher · Course winner or having first run at Newbury · Finished in first 2 in last season’s QEII and/or Sussex Stakes · Finished in first 3 in 2012 St James Palace, Greenham and/or a 2000 Guineas · From the first 4 in the betting · Trained by Richard Hannon or Henry Cecil |
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Very wet in Newbury today and still raining. If he waters it'll be a disgrace!
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I can't see that many who played second fiddle to Frankel. Looks like a very poor Group 1 race not worthy of the name with only one proper Group 1 winner and she obviously has issues.
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cityscape is a solid group 1 miler.............the rest are not
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Farrh looks a worthy favourite, not much value in that price though for him first time out, even though he has a 100% fto record, I'm sure there will be better 2/1 shots.
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I think at the prices I'll side with fencing, looks a different horse after the op
, seriously though, possible he can now rekindle all of his 2 year old promise, he was impressive last time although he will of course have to step up again. |
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Most of them want fast ground. The ones with form/wins on Soft are Farhh,Cityscape,DOW & Beauty Parlour. IF it is soft you can forget Trumpet Major,Fencing,Aljamaaheer.
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Beauty Parlour for me. Don't think it will actually be soft but the rain will certainly have helped.
No idea on why she was moved, what caused the big gap in races after French Oaks and then the dreadful run, but connections had always thought world of her and she had previously looked fantastic. At the price I'm happy to give her another chance. |
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fencing has never run on fast ground.
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What I mean to say is although his sire suggests he'll be a lot better on fast ground, he certainly hasn't looked inconvenienced by good g/s and has put up decent enough performances.
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Wish I had taken the 5/1 about DOW. 13/8 now.
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Heaven only knows how he can now be a 13/8 shot in a group 1 based on his form...shocking price.
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2/1 now.
Ground update anyone .. |
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Farhh is by far the stand out bet in this race at the current prices.
Good to Firm no issue for Pivotals, could have easily been Eclipse and Moulin winner last year. Trainer has excellent record in this race. Goes very well fresh. 9/2 - 5/1 fill ya boots. |
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Declaration Of War for me sintonian ...... he'll put in a performance like Hawk Wing back in the day!
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lay this fav all day boys
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this has got to be the worst favourite i have seen for a race for a long time...
i really like faarh at the prices and is a strong play for me....beauty parlour is also a strong player but not sure how she will run on good to firm ground both would prefer cut but declaration of war is just horrible at these prices and must be opposed... i had faarh down as a tissue 7-4 shot so am happy to accommodate the 9-2 on offer good luck sintonian with the declaration of war who you obviously wished you had taken the 5's about, so you cannot lose with people on here if it wins a real betting race for me however and a place lay on cityscape at around evens should also be played with the trainers horses well behind |
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Harry, Cityscape may not be good enough, but I can't imagine he won't be ready to run his race. This will have been nominated as a massive target some time ago, and Charlton had his Gordon Richards winner (name has escaped me) ready to do himself justice almost a month ago.
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Run since 1958 and never won by a 7 yr old.
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morning all, normally i have a strong opinion on most G1 affairs and esp one like this with older horses and loads of from to go by but this is far from a classic renewal and im just going to have a small play on Reply at big odds to lay off in running around the 40 mark, the horse goes well fresh and loves the good to firm ground, not many others can say that.
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fav out to 3.4 and likely to keep drifting
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Al Kazeem, Howellsy.
Given I missed the price on DOW I won't be betting in this race but still hope he wins as he is in my TTF list. On form, he shorter than he should be, but he's never been tried in this company and is 5/6. So, basically, if you back him it's on his potential to improve/peak. There are negatives about most in this race so one to watch for me. |
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I agree with the consensus of opinion here that DOW is ridiculously short, even with the drift, and my first instinct was to lay it. However, the price on Farrh is suspiciously big. Often you can see a runner that the public has underestimated compared to your own analysis but you usually can see the reasons why. I can't see any reason why Farrh would be so big here unless somebody knows something I don't. Obviously Cityscape is (was?) a good horse but I can't have a 7yo for this. Take him and Farrh out of the equation and DOW could be a risky lay. Maybe I'm overthinking things with Farrh and he'll turn out to be one of the bets of the season but I'm reluctantly sitting this one out.
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*Farhh
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I've never seen Farhh as a miler to be honest. His two best runs were in the Eclipse and POW. After his 2nd to Moonlight Cloud he apparently had surgery to remove a chip in a joint. Minor stuff otherwise he'd not be running. With DOW at least he has fitness on his side, you would think!
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I have hardly anything between his best 8f and 10f runs, even if DOW has made significant improvement as a 4yo, I still find it odd that Farhh is available as an each way bet to nothing, as on all known form he would be very difficult to keep out of the frame.
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Plus he has an excellent record fto.
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well for me this race comes down to ratings...cityscape is basically a 123 peak horse which is why he has always struggled in top company...beauty parlour is the naughty one for me because on adjusted i don't have with much to find with the principles...
basically the war horse as hard as i try... through other horses he can only be have down at present as a 118 horse on all form shown...he just cannot be any more...i had him down as a realistic 7-1 chance because he has only shown potential...ask yourself the question if he was trained by any trainer in ireland bar bolger what price would he be?? he is horrible here at 5-2 and even if he wins i will just view it as he has improved a stone and i can't legislate for that much improvement at this time and certainly have no wish to find out at the odds faarh for me is so solid i have him down at 125+ after running all last season against proven group 1 horses and for me the mile is no trouble also goes particularly well off the lay off...if ever there was a weak enough group 1 in europe for him to win this is certainly the race for him...a couple of lines of form gives me the belief he can take care of the other proven group 1 cityscape... like i say the naughty one is the cecil horse for me as i cannot get to the bottom of her form wise... she does bring group 1 form to the table but as with all filly form it is very difficult to evaluate her...today will tell us a lot about her moving forwards... |