Horse Antepost
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Who will be top weight in this race? Most of those at the top of the weights ran at Aintree or are novices. Anyone know what is the highest rated intended runner? The fav Rival D'estruval looks to have a big chance but could be close to top weight on the day. Any thoughts?
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I think leave it till the 5 days are out, it's a complete guessing game at this stage. Quite a few may run after Aintree, but they won't even have decided yet.
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F-4PPP Weird Al 10 Donald McCain 158
1U355U Roberto Goldback11 Nicky Henderson 152 21113 Rocky Creek 7 Paul Nicholls 152 86203 Teaforthree14 9 Rebecca Curtis 151 112710 Across The Bay 9 Donald McCain 150 3-72P0 Join Together 8 Paul Nicholls 150 6-P73P Ballabriggs 12 Donald McCain 150 0F631P Chicago Grey 10 Gordon Elliott 149 54126P Cannington Brook9 Colin Tizzard 148 142327 Houblon Des Obeaux 6 Venetia Williams 148 34-222 Cappa Bleu 11 Evan Williams 147 1F223 Hadrian´s Approach 6 Nicky Henderson 147 8-6435 Rare Bob14 11 D T Hughes 146 0710/P Silver By Nature 11 Lucinda Russell 145 133-U2 Our Mick39 7 Donald McCain 145 35U255 Hold On Julio 10 Alan King 145 F21521 Poungach 7 Paul Nicholls 144 341361 Same Difference 7 Nigel Twiston-Davies 144 PU-071 Always Right 11 John Wade 143 2-121F Rival D´Estruval 8 Pauline Robson 143 11611P Lost Glory 8 Jonjo O´Neill 142 F2-110 Wyck Hill56 9 David Bridgwater 142 U1F111 Well Refreshed 9 Gary Moore 142 P1344U Knockara Beau 10 George Charlton 142 6-142B Garleton 12 Maurice Barnes 142 B-8917 Soll 8 Jo Hughes 139 201213 Godsmejudge 7 Alan King 139 P1-332 Mr Moss 8 Evan Williams 138 F321P On Trend 7 Nick Gifford 138 F4309 Saint Are 7 Tim Vaughan 138 3PP45P Becauseicouldntsee 10 N F Glynn 137 5F604 Problema Tic 7 David Pipe 137 1F1387 Tour Des Champs 6 Nigel Twiston-Davies 136 2P-771 Quentin Collonges 9 Henry Daly 135 8-114P Rose Of The Moon 8 David O´Meara 135 341F-4 Mister Marker 9 Nicky Richards 133 23212P Rigadin De Beauchene 8 Venetia Williams 133 P45F51 Auroras Encore 11 Sue Smith 133 60264P Mr Moonshine 9 Sue Smith 133 673116 Nuts N Bolts 7 Lucinda Russell 133 1425P Bradley 9 Fergal O´Brien 133 22-21 Night Force 10 Brendan Powell 132 265P0 Major Malarkey 10 Nigel Twiston-Davies 132 334321 Big Occasion 6 David Pipe 132 5-421P Russian War 10 Gordon Elliott 131 22P323 White Star Line 9 D T Hughes 131 65212P Relax 8 Venetia Williams 131 222F25 Fill The Power 7 Sue Smith 130 2121F Nodforms Violet 9 Karen McLintock 130 23P25P Viking Blond 8 Nigel Twiston-Davies 130 50-181 Neptune Equester10 Brian Ellison 129 241490 Quietly Fancied 9 Oliver McKiernan 129 P1P5F State Benefit 8 Nicky Henderson 129 70165P Pentiffic 10 Venetia Williams 128 P1621P Storm Survivor 7 Jonjo O´Neill 127 4-F131 Monsieur Cadou 8 Tom George 126 3-411P Cool Operator35 10 Philip Kirby 126 05P112 Rebeccas Choice 10 Dai Burchell 126 131873 Lively Baron 8 Donald McCain 125 14P-53 Beneficial Reform 8 James Ewart 125 1F1F2 Isla Pearl Fisher 10 N W Alexander 124 808313 Handy Andy 7 Colin Tizzard 123 1-6P63 Air Force One 11 Lawney Hill 122 5318- Gurtacrue 8 Evan Williams 122 3-P9P2 King Fontaine 10 Malcolm Jefferson 116 3P-238 Captain Americo 11 James Ewart 115 2/P023 Quarl Ego 9 Lawney Hill 105 155-P1 Dermatologiste 10 Caroline Bailey 101 114208 Tarquinius 10 Gordon Elliott PP-00P Sarteano 10 D T Hughes 343576 Whatuthink 11 Oliver McKiernan 8511-P Lion Na Bearnai 11 Thomas Gibney 81406 Sole Witness 9 C A McBratney All Open Account » |
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Weights now updated on RP following re-assessment of runners last week.
Purely guesswork on my part at this stage, but it looks to me like Auroras Encore on his new mark of 148 is likely to be top weight should he turn up as I just don't see any of those above him appearing at Ayr. However, there must be a doubt that he will take his chance off the revised mark following his exersions last weekend. That would leave Houblon Des Obeaux (148) as next likely top weight but as a 6yo novice would he take his chance? You are then probably looking at Our Mick (145) or Silver by Nature (145) who is ground dependant so a significant weight shift may be on the cards here. I have backed Problema Tic who ran fairly well at Aintree last weekend and who looks as though he has been laid out for this for his Scottish owners and also King Fontaine who will benefit greatly from a rise in the weights and is likely to be running here off a mark at least 10lb lower than when 3rd in the race last year. |
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If Problema Tic had been "laid out" for this I doubt they would have subjected him to such a hard race last week.Having said that if he hadn't run there he would have been near the top of my list.
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Teaforthree out. Anybody know when the field gets narrowed down?
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confirmation of entries/5 day decs next monday from 12pm
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Thanks tin.
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Problema Tic doesn't look as if he stays to me. Kings Fontaine is well handicapped on his last run here and did at least show signs of life last time. However if it's G/S or worse I would fancy the one in front to confirm the form. Good or better I'll probably have to back Kings Fontaine, provided he gets in.
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shortlist of 3 at mo for me quentin collonges mr moss and neptune equester
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Our Mick and Rival D'Estruval for me. Will be dissapointed if at least one of them doesn't go close.
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If Always Right is back to something like his best, then he has an excellent chance of winning this.
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I like a couple a long way down the weights but I need about 40 to come out! Am I right in saying the max field size is 24?
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Maximum number of runners =30
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Had a go at applying the trends to the race and the finishing order will be as follows.
 1 Lively Baron 2Monsieur cadou 3king fontaine 4neptune equester 5quentin collonges 6benificial reform 7mr moss Seriously tho who can give me the preferred ground conditions for the above horses.? |
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er - look at historical form/results of each horse ??!!
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Mate i just gave you the top 7 places ,you could be a bit more helpful.
 Nah was just looking for horses with a known preference,i mean historical results dont tell the whole story,most horses on that list dont actually show a preference from their results.  |
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I've got Monsieur Cadou as a soft ground horse
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Given the amount of rain Ayr have had over the last few days and the amount forecast over the next few days I would be staggered if SOFT is not mentioned somewhere in the forecast despite Ayrs propensity to dry up very quickly at this time of year.
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Given the amount of rain Ayr have had over the last few days and the amount forecast over the next few days I would be staggered if SOFT is not mentioned somewhere in the forecast despite Ayrs propensity to dry up very quickly at this time of year.
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Given the amount of rain Ayr have had over the last few days and the amount forecast over the next few days I would be staggered if SOFT is not mentioned somewhere in the forecast despite Ayrs propensity to dry up very quickly at this time of year.
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Irish_Celtic 14 Apr 13 18:45
Mate i just gave you the top 7 places ,you could be a bit more helpful. Nah was just looking for horses with a known preference,i mean historical results dont tell the whole story,most horses on that list dont actually show a preference from their results. Wont get any more information for a preference, then what they have shown in their past races to date. How else would you know? If they've not shown a preference that would be because they don't have one. |
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when do we get the 5 day entries? thought they were supposed to be out midday?
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Auroras Encore (IRE) 11 11 5
Lion Na Bearnai (IRE) 11 11 4 Silver By Nature (GB) 11 11 2 Our Mick (GB) 7 11 2 Poungach (FR) 7 11 1 Always Right (IRE) 11 11 0 Rival d'Estruval (FR) 8 11 0 Garleton (IRE) 12 10 13 Knockara Beau (IRE) 10 10 13 Godsmejudge (IRE) 7 10 10 Mr Moss (IRE) 8 10 9 Rose of The Moon (IRE) 8 10 6 Becauseicouldntsee (IRE) 10 10 6 Quentin Collonges (FR) 9 10 6 Problema Tic (FR) 7 10 5 Tour des Champs (FR) 6 10 5 Bradley (GB) 9 10 4 Mister Marker (IRE) 9 10 4 Rigadin de Beauchene (FR) 8 10 4 Nuts N Bolts (GB) 7 10 4 Major Malarkey (IRE) 10 10 3 Big Occasion (IRE) 6 10 3 Relax (FR) 8 10 2 White Star Line (IRE) 9 10 2 Nodforms Violet (IRE) 9 10 1 Fill The Power (IRE) 7 10 1 Neptune Equester (GB) 10 10 0 Sarteano (FR) 10 9 13 Pentiffic (NZ) 10 9 12 Monsieur Cadou (FR) 8 9 11 Cool Operator (GB) 10 9 11 Rebeccas Choice (IRE) 10 9 11 Beneficial Reform (IRE) 8 9 10 Lively Baron (IRE) 8 9 10 Quietly Fancied (IRE) 9 9 9 King Fontaine (IRE) 10 9 1 Captain Americo (IRE) 11 9 0 |
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yes with ground softening and weights going up 7lb as auroras encore looks set to run it has to be neptune equester for me
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how many can actually run in this race ?...37 at 5 day stage but only 24 ran last year.
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What are the chances of White Star Line staying this distance on pedigree? I'm no expert but Uncle Junior would seem to give hope he would and he has been staying/keeping on at the end of his races. Cloudy Too and Fruity O Rooney have given the Cheltenham form a solid look to it and think he will go close off his weight if he does stay.
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Ok facts thanks for your input. I believe 30 is the maximum amount of runners
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thanks Irish.
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Also Nuts and Bolts was staying on at the finish and is 3 from at Ayr. Is still lightly raced and may still be improving.
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3 from 4
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Right
Lively Baron and Neptune Equester, how likely are thy to run? Lively Baron is entered up in 3 other races. Is that in case he misses the cut? |
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Hi judorick thanks for the reply. Yeah guess Baron needs 4 to come out before the weekend.
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good, well will wait and see if he runs, then will be on if he does
might get McCoy on him, he rode him last time |
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McCoy ?
10st 3lb? |
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I see The Sporting Life website racecard for The Scottish National is still in alphabetical order ( i.e not showing in handicap weight order).Such a poor site.
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Facts - click on OR and you have the field in weight order
 ..... what a wonderful site Sporting Life is |
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I like Bradley. His 2nd in October to Balthazar King looks good as does his 2nd to Monbeg Dude giving him 12lbs. MD went on to win the Welsh Nat and run in the GC. Now back on the same mark.I would like to see it drying up, but looking outside, I doubt it. Only 13ml from Ayr.
Like a few posts, Neptune Equester looks as though he could be thereabouts too GL |
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toilettennisplayer 15 Apr 13 19:47
Facts - click on OR and you have the field in weight order ..... what a wonderful site Sporting Life is er ...no you don't. Auroras Encore is out of line.Click on the weight and the correct weight order appears. Except AE's OR is incorrect. I repeat - poor site. |
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If you knew you could get the weight order as well as alphabetical order then what are you moaning about? Obviously makes your original comment invalid because the weight order is available with a single click. The only thing they didnt do yet is update AE's official rating by the 11 lb rise it was given, but that's evident from the weight it is allocated relative to the others.
Nothing like having a moan for the sake of having a moan ..... |