Scottish National

I think leave it till the 5 days are out, it's a complete guessing game at this stage. Quite a few may run after Aintree, but they won't even have decided yet.

F-4PPP    Weird Al    10        Donald McCain         158   

1U355U    Roberto Goldback11        Nicky Henderson         152

21113    Rocky Creek      7        Paul Nicholls         152

86203    Teaforthree14      9        Rebecca Curtis         151

112710    Across The Bay  9        Donald McCain         150

3-72P0    Join Together    8        Paul Nicholls         150

6-P73P    Ballabriggs      12        Donald McCain         150

0F631P    Chicago Grey     10        Gordon Elliott         149

54126P    Cannington Brook9        Colin Tizzard         148

142327    Houblon Des Obeaux 6        Venetia Williams     148   

34-222    Cappa Bleu    11        Evan Williams         147

1F223    Hadrian´s Approach 6        Nicky Henderson         147

8-6435    Rare Bob14    11        D T Hughes         146

0710/P    Silver By Nature 11        Lucinda Russell         145

133-U2    Our Mick39      7        Donald McCain         145

35U255    Hold On Julio    10        Alan King         145

F21521    Poungach    7        Paul Nicholls         144

341361    Same Difference    7        Nigel Twiston-Davies     144   

PU-071    Always Right    11        John Wade         143

2-121F    Rival D´Estruval 8        Pauline Robson             143

11611P    Lost Glory    8        Jonjo O´Neill         142

F2-110    Wyck Hill56      9        David Bridgwater     142

U1F111    Well Refreshed    9        Gary Moore             142   

P1344U    Knockara Beau    10        George Charlton         142   

6-142B    Garleton      12        Maurice Barnes         142   

B-8917    Soll            8        Jo Hughes         139   

201213    Godsmejudge    7        Alan King         139   

P1-332    Mr Moss     8        Evan Williams         138   

F321P    On Trend    7        Nick Gifford         138   

F4309    Saint Are    7        Tim Vaughan         138

3PP45P    Becauseicouldntsee 10        N F Glynn         137   

5F604    Problema Tic      7        David Pipe         137   

1F1387    Tour Des Champs    6        Nigel Twiston-Davies     136   

2P-771    Quentin Collonges 9            Henry Daly         135   

8-114P    Rose Of The Moon 8            David O´Meara             135   

341F-4    Mister Marker      9            Nicky Richards         133

23212P    Rigadin De Beauchene 8        Venetia Williams     133

P45F51    Auroras Encore    11        Sue Smith         133   

60264P    Mr Moonshine    9        Sue Smith         133
   
673116    Nuts N Bolts      7        Lucinda Russell         133

1425P    Bradley     9        Fergal O´Brien         133

22-21    Night Force    10        Brendan Powell         132   

265P0    Major Malarkey    10        Nigel Twiston-Davies     132   

334321    Big Occasion    6        David Pipe         132

5-421P    Russian War     10        Gordon Elliott         131

22P323    White Star Line    9        D T Hughes         131

65212P    Relax     8                Venetia Williams         131

222F25    Fill The Power    7        Sue Smith         130

2121F    Nodforms Violet    9        Karen McLintock         130

23P25P    Viking Blond    8        Nigel Twiston-Davies     130   

50-181    Neptune Equester10        Brian Ellison            129

241490    Quietly Fancied    9        Oliver McKiernan     129   

P1P5F    State Benefit    8        Nicky Henderson         129   

70165P    Pentiffic    10        Venetia Williams     128   

P1621P    Storm Survivor    7        Jonjo O´Neill         127   

4-F131    Monsieur Cadou    8        Tom George             126   

3-411P    Cool Operator35    10        Philip Kirby         126   


05P112    Rebeccas Choice    10        Dai Burchell         126   

131873    Lively Baron      8        Donald McCain         125

14P-53    Beneficial Reform 8        James Ewart         125

1F1F2    Isla Pearl Fisher 10        N W Alexander         124   

808313    Handy Andy      7        Colin Tizzard         123   

1-6P63    Air Force One     11        Lawney Hill         122

5318-    Gurtacrue     8        Evan Williams         122

3-P9P2    King Fontaine    10        Malcolm Jefferson     116   

3P-238    Captain Americo    11        James Ewart             115

2/P023    Quarl Ego    9        Lawney Hill         105

155-P1    Dermatologiste  10            Caroline Bailey         101
   
114208    Tarquinius    10        Gordon Elliott        

PP-00P    Sarteano    10        D T Hughes

343576    Whatuthink    11        Oliver McKiernan       

8511-P    Lion Na Bearnai 11            Thomas Gibney

81406    Sole Witness     9            C A McBratney



All

Open Account »

Weights now updated on RP following re-assessment of runners last week.

Purely guesswork on my part at this stage, but it looks to me like Auroras Encore on his new mark of 148 is likely to be top weight should he turn up as I just don't see any of those above him appearing at Ayr. However, there must be a doubt that he will take his chance off the revised mark following his exersions last weekend. That would leave Houblon Des Obeaux (148) as next likely top weight but as a 6yo novice would he take his chance? You are then probably looking at Our Mick (145) or Silver by Nature (145) who is ground dependant so a significant weight shift may be on the cards here. 

I have backed Problema Tic who ran fairly well at Aintree last weekend and who looks as though he has been laid out for this for his Scottish owners and also King Fontaine who will benefit greatly from a rise in the weights and is likely to be running here off a mark at least 10lb lower than when 3rd in the race last year.

If Problema Tic had been "laid out" for this I doubt they would have subjected him to such a hard race last week.Having said that if he hadn't run there he would have been near the top of my list.

Teaforthree out. Anybody know when the field gets narrowed down?

confirmation of entries/5 day decs next monday from 12pm

Thanks tin.

Problema Tic doesn't look as if he stays to me. Kings Fontaine is well handicapped on his last run here and did at least show signs of life last time. However if it's G/S or worse I would fancy the one in front to confirm the form. Good or better I'll probably have to back Kings Fontaine, provided he gets in.

shortlist of 3 at mo for me quentin collonges mr moss and neptune equester

Our Mick and Rival D'Estruval for me. Will be dissapointed if at least one of them doesn't go close.

If Always Right is back to something like his best, then he has an excellent chance of winning this.

I like a couple a long way down the weights but I need about 40 to come out!  Am I right in saying the max field size is 24?

Maximum number of runners =30

Had a go at applying the trends to the race and the finishing order will be as follows.

1 Lively Baron
2Monsieur cadou
3king fontaine
4neptune equester
5quentin collonges
6benificial reform
7mr moss

Seriously tho  who can give me the preferred ground conditions for the above horses.?

er - look at historical form/results of each horse ??!!

Mate i just gave you the top 7 places ,you could be a bit more helpful.

Nah was just looking for horses with a known preference,i mean historical results  dont tell the whole story,most horses on that list dont actually show a preference from their results.

I've got Monsieur Cadou as a soft ground horse

Given the amount of rain Ayr have had over the last few days and the amount forecast over the next few days I would be staggered if SOFT is not mentioned somewhere in the forecast despite Ayrs propensity to dry up very quickly at this time of year.

Given the amount of rain Ayr have had over the last few days and the amount forecast over the next few days I would be staggered if SOFT is not mentioned somewhere in the forecast despite Ayrs propensity to dry up very quickly at this time of year.

Given the amount of rain Ayr have had over the last few days and the amount forecast over the next few days I would be staggered if SOFT is not mentioned somewhere in the forecast despite Ayrs propensity to dry up very quickly at this time of year.

Irish_Celtic     14 Apr 13 18:45 
Mate i just gave you the top 7 places ,you could be a bit more helpful.

Nah was just looking for horses with a known preference,i mean historical results  dont tell the whole story,most horses on that list dont actually show a preference from their results.



Wont get any more information for a preference, then what they have shown in their past races to date. How else would you know? If they've not shown a preference that would be because they don't have one.

when do we get the 5 day entries?  thought they were supposed to be out midday?

Auroras Encore (IRE)    11       11 5
Lion Na Bearnai (IRE)    11       11 4
Silver By Nature (GB)    11       11 2
Our Mick (GB)    7       11 2
Poungach (FR)    7       11 1
Always Right (IRE)    11       11 0
Rival d'Estruval (FR)    8       11 0
Garleton (IRE)    12       10 13
Knockara Beau (IRE)    10       10 13
Godsmejudge (IRE)    7       10 10
Mr Moss (IRE)    8       10 9
Rose of The Moon (IRE)    8       10 6
Becauseicouldntsee (IRE)    10       10 6
Quentin Collonges (FR)    9       10 6
Problema Tic (FR)    7       10 5
Tour des Champs (FR)    6       10 5
Bradley (GB)    9       10 4
Mister Marker (IRE)    9       10 4
Rigadin de Beauchene (FR)    8       10 4
Nuts N Bolts (GB)    7       10 4
Major Malarkey (IRE)    10       10 3
Big Occasion (IRE)    6       10 3
Relax (FR)    8       10 2
White Star Line (IRE)    9       10 2
Nodforms Violet (IRE)    9       10 1
Fill The Power (IRE)    7       10 1
Neptune Equester (GB)    10       10 0
Sarteano (FR)    10       9 13
Pentiffic (NZ)    10       9 12
Monsieur Cadou (FR)    8       9 11
Cool Operator (GB)    10       9 11
Rebeccas Choice (IRE)    10       9 11
Beneficial Reform (IRE)    8       9 10
Lively Baron (IRE)    8       9 10
Quietly Fancied (IRE)    9       9 9
King Fontaine (IRE)    10       9 1
Captain Americo (IRE)    11       9 0

yes with ground softening and weights going up 7lb as auroras encore looks set to run it has to be neptune equester for me

how many can actually run in this race ?...37 at 5 day stage but only 24 ran last year.

What are the chances of White Star Line staying this distance on pedigree? I'm no expert but Uncle Junior would seem to give hope he would and he has been staying/keeping on at the end of his races. Cloudy Too and Fruity O Rooney have given the Cheltenham form a solid look to it and think he will go close off his weight if he does stay.

Ok facts thanks for your input. I believe 30 is the maximum amount of runners

thanks Irish.

Also Nuts and Bolts was staying on at the finish and is 3 from at Ayr. Is still lightly raced and may still be improving.

3 from 4

Right

Lively Baron and Neptune Equester, how likely are thy to run?

Lively Baron is entered up in 3 other races. Is that in case he misses the cut?

Hi judorick thanks for the reply.  Yeah guess Baron needs 4 to come out before the weekend.

good, well will wait and see if he runs, then will be on if he does

might get McCoy on him, he rode him last time

McCoy ?
10st 3lb?

I see The Sporting Life website racecard for The Scottish National is still in alphabetical order ( i.e not showing in handicap weight order).Such a poor site.

Facts - click on OR and you have the field in weight order ..... what a wonderful site Sporting Life is

I like Bradley. His 2nd in October to Balthazar King looks good as does his 2nd to Monbeg Dude giving him 12lbs. MD went on to win the Welsh Nat and run in the GC. Now back on the same mark.I would like to see it drying up, but looking outside, I doubt it. Only 13ml from Ayr.
Like a few posts, Neptune Equester looks as though he could be thereabouts too
GL

toilettennisplayer     15 Apr 13 19:47 
Facts - click on OR and you have the field in weight order  ..... what a wonderful site Sporting Life is


er ...no you don't. Auroras Encore is out of line.Click on the weight and the correct weight order appears. Except AE's  OR is incorrect. I repeat - poor site.

If you knew you could get the weight order as well as alphabetical order then what are you moaning about? Obviously makes your original comment invalid because the weight order is available with a single click. The only thing they didnt do yet is update AE's official rating by the 11 lb rise it was given, but that's evident from the weight it is allocated relative to the others.

Nothing like having a moan for the sake of having a moan .....

Aurorea's Encore was prob being aimed at this before they realised he'd get in the national. Has a chance imo.

toilettennisplayer     15 Apr 13 23:28 
If you knew you could get the weight order as well as alphabetical order then what are you moaning about? Obviously makes your original comment invalid because the weight order is available with a single click. The only thing they didnt do yet is update AE's official rating by the 11 lb rise it was given, but that's evident from the weight it is allocated relative to the others.

Nothing like having a moan for the sake of having a moan .....



I wasn't aware of the Weight 'button' - and that by clicking on it - it adjusted the order. Thanks for pointing it out to me.
My point is - why not display the race ( as its a handicap) in its proper order( i.e weight). What relevance/point is there in having it Alphabetic Order. It eventually gets displayed in the right way nearer the day of the race, so why not show it beforehand ( as do all other publications/sites)?

Auroras may not run if the going is nasty

anyone know if Lion Na Bearnai is an intended runner?

Raining all night and this morning, forecast same until Friday, soft ground on the cards.

When was the last time a Grand National winner won its next race ?

probably 1974

unless Mr Frisk won the Whitbread...?

Yes he did. Backed him in The National - and then didn't play up at Sandown!!

Garleton looks overpriced to me at 80 odd on here - intended runner i assume as jocked up in RP

Has won on ground from good to heavy so that will hold no fears, has proven he is competitive of around his current mark(has won off 2lb lower)

Was brought down lto which he could do nothin about but was just touched off by Always Right 2 runs ago and that one is 10/1 2nd fav

80 seems very big

Judging by the market it looks like 6 or 7  wont be taking their chance.

All listed should get a run ,maybe even less than 30?

I don't fancy Garleton or always right. Why would Garleton win now on a higher mark than last year as a 12 year old?

Actually I just don't fancy Garleton, always right may go close.

I'm a little hungover so bear with me today :D

Haha are there reliable trends for this race Judo? I fancy Monsieur Cadou if there is soft in the description but it's not heavy but no idea if he fits the profile of a winner of this race. I remember Beshabar winning as a novice so not sure if experience is as big a factor here than it is in the national.

I must have backed it when I was drunk. Just logged in to back it and I'm already on lmao.

any NRNB on this anywhere?

GCW

drink and gambling, great combo!

Judo whether Lion Na Bearnai runs or not is subject to the results of a scope on Thursday. He's had no end of problems since his Irish National win....hardly encouraging I'm afraid....

PS. Well done on your Aintree win with Auroras Encore. Was on SHB last year but not AR this year unfortunately

well thanks but as Auroras looks like he will run, the weights won't go up which is what I was thinking about

always right 50 to lay

non runner?

just noticed s k y b e t going NRNB.Lively Baron 25,s

^

NUTS AND BOLTS for me

I don't understand the price of Always right, using Merigo who was a pretty decent yardstick than Auororas Encore is 4lb better off here yet is 3 times the price. He has form on soft ground too, Admittedly I don't know how many GN winners have attempted this double but one of the prices looks wrong. They are both carrying a much heavier weight then last time they attempted this race.

I was looking at the wrong price. It has the faourite in small letters on my screen for some reason so got the odds mixed up. Thought Always Right was 8/1!

Bradley for me, back to down to 133 which is same mark as when chasing home subsequent welsh national winner Monbeg Dude. ground drying out now should be in his favour and useful claimer taking off 7lb.

There doesn't seem to be many low weighted horses that like good ground and stay to me. Bradley was one of them. Pulling up and lack of a recent run does go against the trends but the trainer is in good form recently and the jockey has a 33% strike rate over chases this season so I'm guessing he is decent!

I'll wait to see if it is good ground tomorrow but will be backing him if it is.

£50@29/1 lively baron

g/l all

Yes, good luck Money! I'm on Lively Baron too @ 28/1 e/w

Also Neptune Equester 16/1 e/w.

I've also had a little win only bet on Auroras Encore

When I say a little bet, I mean little

10k wanting to back Big Occasion

Sunny day with a strong wind the ground is gonna be close to good, surely turned against the horse.

Nuts N Bolts for me.

Our Mick and Problema Tic are my 2 against the field in this race.

AE will probably be pulled on second circuit "feeling the effects of aintree etc etc"

AE will probably be pulled  on second circuit "feeling the effects of aintree etc etc"

Cool Operator

I'm on Auroras Encore @ 22
Bradley @ 17.5
Monsieur Cadou @ 17.5 win and 5 place

Good luck all. Looks tricky.

Backed Lively Baron but have a feeling he will run like a blind camel.

hopefully not celtic mate

1. Rebecca's Choice
2. Nuts n Bolts
3. Relax

not a good result for thread

Bad result for trends.We will have our day in the sun again.

As has been said, not a great result for trends but all credit to the impressive winner who could be very useful if he gets his conditions.

Ayr is a strange track that can be a swamp or dry out very quickly as it's on a breezy sea coast.

Lessons to be learned...Don't pile in all guns blazing a week or so before the race on relatively short priced probable runners.

At Ayr, especially at this time of the season, anything can happen (and usually does).

ps I backed Rebeccas choice.

What happened?!

I've only just got in.

Looked on SL for result... only 7 finishers!

None of mine got round!

Going to watch the replay... hope they're all alright.

Most were just pulled up.

Strange sort of race full of pretty average horses who never got into it really.

All the horses looked alright, thankfully.

I hope the jockey being treated was ok. Does anyone know?

Yes, it was a strange race.

Really disappointed that Lively Baron fell.

Just seen that Lively Baron went off at 16/1

I'm gutted Bradley got brought down, it was such a sh1te race I'm sure he would have gone close.

Wouldn't have beaten Godsmejudge - nice horse

You & me both GCW

Might get it back on Sat at Sandown though