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Flemenstar V Cue Card at Aintree
Flemenstar V Cue Card at Aintree
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Replies: 131
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I put up MY odds for the Aintree race BEFORE ANY bookie did, and I was happy to make Cue Card a 7/1 poke even after his impressive Ryanair victory.
I did likewise last year before the Prix Jacques (when there were NO offers anywhere, which can be accessed on here) and I was on the nose with virtually ALL the field - the only one I was 'a bit' out on was Excelebration as I thought up against NINE group one winners, he could have his work cut out after being seriously bummed by Frankel. I had him at 4/1 though in my defence (even though he ended up 9/4) he did hit 10/3 at one stage - some after-timers who disagreed AFTER the event didn't have the balls to show their hand BEFORE the race! PS - earlier in this thread you'll see I put my odds up BEFORE Paddy Power did and I'd say those odds were very much on the ball. Nevertheless, I can't say I'm expecting a call from those c0cksucking fággots regarding a retainer  |
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Last year it looked like SS was coming to the end of his tether at the end of the Arkle.
I must have been watching a different race  |
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Navel-Gazer 27 Mar 13 01:36
There were ONLY TEN fences over 21f for Cue Card in The Ryanair (RP website erroneously states 17) yet incredibly, Sprinter Scare negotiated THIRTEEN over 2M - Cue Card WILL suffer at Aintree if the big guns turn up - his jumping is just NOT up to it and I know that'll piss Judorick off something wicked! God knows what this is all about navel, but it looks like your abacus may have run out of batteries!  |
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Navel Gazer, a couple of bits of quick advice for you, first go here; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYqYk-PHbsw and count the fences yourself, all 17 of them, then concentrate your mind on not typing with CAPS quite so often in the middle of your sentences. It reads like you have Tourettes and keep suddenly shouting for no reason.
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TLU - Sorry for shouting
 I thought it was emphasis!  Duffy - I have to apologise...what a tool I am! On another thread, I mentioned the lack of fluency with Cue Card's jumping and foolishly, I watched the CH4 highlights programme, which saw the runners at the very start, then edited out the first seven fences (which I didn't notice) and the caption at the top read 10 fences to jump! I thought it was rather strange and a big disparity If anyone else has saved the CH4 show, they'll realise exactly why I was duped though I still feel like a gobshíte! |
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Lol, don't worry - the italics just below the posting box are much better for emphasis
 or even bold or underline on occasions. The caps just make your posts really hard to read that's all. I'm glad I went back and looked at the race though, I have to agree that CC didn't jump that well at all! He must have some engine to still have won so well but can't help but think that the other 2 will jump him silly and he would as judo says be better in the Bowl. |
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To be fair, Cue Card wasn't as bad as I initially thought in The Ryanair, though as seems to be his norm, there's invariably a blunder or two in him.
I've had him earmarked as a suspect jumper for some time though I do have a vague recollection of an impressive round of jumping as a novice last season...maybe in his defeat to Bob's Worth at Newbury?  He seemingly had that horse cold before tying up and being nailed late on...and he carried a 7lb penalty. Quite clearly he has an engine but I wouldn't be surprised to see a set of 'sideburns' on him one day. PS - The Bowl is definitely the right option but I really want to see this clash in The Melling with Sprinter Sacre & Flemenstar. |
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CC guesses at the odd one for sure, and with flem and SS snapping at his heels, well, it can't help can it.
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Interesting point Navel Gazer. I'd throw in Big Zeb. He did win an egg and spoon race over 2m5 as a novice, but that was his only win over further than 2m1f. Azertyuiop never won beyond 2m and did try several times. Well Chief didn't win a QM but was 2nd to a legend and better than the average winner, and he didn't get 2.5m. Then I'd probably have to go back to Pearlyman, and Badsworth Boy (having to trust my memory here, form doesn't go back that far).
Most do get it, especially at Aintree. The interesting thing though is that if you look at the list who probably didn't, they were exceptional winners. There is an argument that a truly outstanding 2 miles won't stay further. And also the visual evidence that Sprinter seemed to tire last year. But I'm not arguing that he won't stay, I think he will, now he's settling so much better. I'm just saying that you can never be certain, so taking long odds on when a horse steps up in trip may not be overly wise. History is littered with burnt fingers attached to people who assume a horse is certain to stay a trip he hasn't tried before. And if no more fingers get burned for that reason on Friday next week, I promise you they will on Saturday! |
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What's happened to Finian's Rainbow? Surely this race is perfect for him?
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Surely 2m 4f at Aintree not a lot different from 2m at Cheltenham.
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Barry - when Big Zeb was established after his novice season, he didn't even try a step up in trip which is surprising.
Well Chief had just the one shot at 20f after a fall at Cheltenham, though he was disappointing. Azertyuiop didn't try (even though he won over 18f) yet on his CV, there's an excellent third to Kicking King in the King George. I had the same debate a few years ago when Master Minded stepped up in trip and I was confident he'd do so with ease, though surprisingly, there were many dissenters. To clarify, maybe the question I should be asking is who CONCLUSIVELY doesn't get the 20f trip. It's a very interesting quandary and I've always believed if a Champion Chase contender is good enough to be bang on the premises off (usually) a solid pace, then they'll have the requisite blend of speed & stamina to get a longer trip off a slightly weaker pace. Anyone got any thoughts about the sideburns for Cue Card? He has a very awkward looking head-carriage. |
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I don't subscribe to the easier track, so we can forget about a full half mile, a furlong here or there maybe, not half mile, it'll take a full minute longer to run than the champion chase and because of the horses involved, it'll be a right good test over the distance.
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Big Zeb ran 3 times over 2.5 m as a novice, being beaten the last twice. My guess is he wasn't tried again because they'd worked out he didn't stay. Azertyuiop didn't get home in the KG and again probably didn't try for a good reason.
I don't think you're ever going to get lots and lots of evidence a horse doesn't stay if it's a QM winner, because if it's that good at 2m why would you keep running it over further if it's even a slightly doubtful stayer?. There's more prestige at 2m anyway. You could flip it round though and say how long is the list of QM winners who conclusively proved as good at 2.5m? The threat to SS is that they don't go fast enough for him, and he starts fighting his jockey. I don't think he will, but it's a risk - he almost certainly would have done a year ago. If he settles, he should be fine. I think he'll win, but he won't carry any of my money at 1-3. |
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I don't back at such odds so I'll be steering clear, and it's a sit & watch race to savour without a bet.
I really cannot see it being a crawl as that'll just play into Geraghty's hands as Sprinter Sacre will murder them for speed...as you suggest, he's far more tractable nowadays and that feint hope for the opposition (that he will bring about his own downfall) is a very unlikely scenario nowadays. Besides, the challengers need to have a game-plan and that slight doubt about his stamina will ensure we'll get a solid gallop - I'd be astonished if they don't try their utmost to expose that possible chínk. |
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CC will have to be every bit as good as many think for him to prevail in this race, he'll lead and do all the donkey work, the other two will be right on his tail pressurizing his jumping with their superior jumping, in flemenstars case, far superior jumping.
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if you aint staying 3m then whats the point in stepping up??
all the most valuable races are at 2m(Queen Mum,Tingle Creek)plus good races in Ireland or 3m(KG) and the GC. SS is a proper 2 miler,he aint winning Gold Cups,so leave him alone imo. |
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Just one other nugget to throw into this, quickest way of getting poor that I know of is backing Henderson horses when they are stepped up in trip. Stats are not everything and every horse is different but stats do tell us that Henderson successfully trains for speed and often overestimates the stamina of his horses. Just a thought that is worth considering. Personally, I think this horse will probably stay but given CC's sketchy jumping and the relative prices I think Flem looks the value bet.
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"Pressurising him with their superior jumpimg"...what you should be thinking about is how Cue Card will be pressurising them with his relentless speed. Most of Cue Card's wins are influenced by rivals' mistakes...Captain Chris,FL being obvious examples.A lot of horses are put out of their comfort zone by CC and I fully expect Flemenstar to succumb. SS could be a different story. Of more significance is Joe Tizzard's blog on the Wincanton website,where he says ducking Flem and SS is highly likely. Shame,but that's what it says.
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For everything they say, their actions don't suggest they've got a whole lot of faith in him really.
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I mean, he says in the blog, if SS and flem turn up they'd be mad not to opt for ireland, why???, you've got a good horse and you'd never get a better chance, (extremely hard still) but nevertheless, they'd never get a better chance to maybe beat SS, that's such a prize they shouldn't be turning it down, if he loses so what!!!
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Ground is going to be an issue here. If it keeps drying out - as appears likely - it may be too quick for all 3 of them on the Mildmay. I'm pretty sure Hendo won't risk SS on 'good' on this very sharp track.
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Cue Card not entered in Bowl so is definitely this race or wait for Punchestown...
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Rumours doing the rounds that Sprinter may miss this and head to Punchestown instead. The Punchestown team are pulling out all the stops to get him apparently
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This would make a lot of sense, assuming SS only has one more run this season. Punchestown is a much more suitable track and there is unlikely to be any fears about the ground being too quick. To my mind, he appears marginally more comfortable going right handed.
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They are watering, the ground is never any quicker than good jumping ground these days.
Flemenstar will go on the Punchestown if he runs Ok here, and it's not out of the question that SS might too, so ducking them pretty pointless imho. 2.5 on good round Aintree should be perfect for Cue Card, let's see how good he is. |
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just did my ratings for the race this morning
Sprinter Sacre 20lb clear! never had that before, well not since Valiramix  in the 2002 Champion Hurdleanother steering job, will waltz past on the bridle I'm sure - minimum 10 lengths victory I think CC for the forecast I think |
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I think Finian's Rainbow will be my bet to place
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FL advertises CC form,Tizzards knock in two decent winners this week,yet SS over twenty times shorter in the betting.And that is over a trip that could be problematic. Madness.
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I love CC but can't get away from FR's price. I'm willing to trust that his runs this season were down to the ground. Think he's a fantastic e/w or place bet.
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just did my ratings for the race this morning
Sprinter Sacre 20lb clear! never had that before, well not since Valiramix in the 2002 Champion Hurdle 20lbs clear of Istabraq ? |
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Istabraq was finished in 2002 though (I backed it anyway...but also had Marble Arch e/w at 33/1)
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Finished ? ..... it was 2/1 fav
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Completely flip flopped on my opinion on this race, I had in my mind that Cue Card might find the course too sharp on the basis of his Kempton failure but his early mistakes there explain that run and he ran really well for a long way when you consider that race went so against him. I just rewatched last year's Arkle and am now convinced that Cue Card is overpriced today. He made up ground in the straight that day over an inadequate trip but what impresses me most is the way he hugged the inside, I think this sharper track may help rather than hurt. SS ran wide quite a bit that day and looking at his run at Aintree he may not have enjoyed the Mildmay Course so much, veered right to jump some of the fences and the time of the race was very modest too. He had a very simple task to beat the 143 rated Toubab who made the task even easier for SS with a terrible blunder 2 out when still just 3L down. SS's speed might be blunted by the trip too, in theory he should get further but something is nagging me about both the amount of speed he has and Henderson's historically poor record stepping horses up in trip, he trains very much for speed. The horse may also be at his very best when fresh, a lot of 2 mile chasers are. That's a lot of ifs and buts but all of them combined produce sufficient doubt to me that the prices do not reflect the chances. Flem is a great jumper but I don;t think he will be quite quick enough after reviewing his races too.
A moderate sized bet for me on Cue Card, is 8.0 on here which is great value! |
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Agree about the track and SS. I just hope it doesn't fack him up. The Mildmay finished Carobee, another very tall big topped horse after he beat Halkopous (Supreme winner) in the 2M novice hurdle on good ground in 1992. Never saw the racecourse again.
Big fan of Cue Card and backed him to win the Ryanair but he had a hard race and has had a long season. |
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Cue Card seems pretty tough to me, 4 starts isn't exactly a hard season.
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I am not suggesting that SS is not a superstar, this he clearly is, but today he races against the best horses he has faced over fences, over a trip he has never ran over, or suggested he wants. Breeding is one thing, but what a horse consistently suggests on the track is much more important. Granted with the ground having dried out so much, this will not be the potential stamina test it might have looked two weeks ago. The last half decent hors SS faced, was Cue Card in last years Arkle, where he beat him 7 lenghts. Having always looked like a horse who gives his all on the bridle, and probably not much more there if it was asked for, you couldnt value him for much more than the 7 lenghts. Cue card is certainly a better animal this year, and also better for the extra half mile, so there may not be much between them. Throw in Flemenstar who i believe should be shorter than CC, and taking 1.35 adds up to pure madness imo. Its just a shame the ground has gone so quick, be slightly worried about Flem letting himself down on it. But, hopefully those fears prove unfounded, the best jumper in trainig should be a sight to behold. And if SS lobs up beside them, and beats them senseless, with them both running to form, then i will be the first to say Wow. But taking 1-3 on a horse after what may have been a harder run than it appears at chelt, over a trip he has never ran over, against opposition the class of which he has never faced...good luck to you. If he is beaten, i would never suggest an i told you so to anyone, visa versa, if he hoses up, i wont think i was wrong. Backing 1-3 shots, you want everything in your favour...is that the case today??
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Judorick
Can I ask how you can possibly have Sprinter so far clear when he hasn't raced over the distance as a chaser and patently failed to stay it on his one try as a novice hurdler. No doubt he is a stronger horse but to extrapolate from what he can do at 2 miles and assume he can do the same at half a mile further is illogical in my view. He will need to stay every yard today. |
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fancy a punt on mad moose in this, i have feeling twister has been holding this horse back for some time in an effort to get a massive price about him in a big race
at 250/1 he finally has that price, the handbrake will be coming off today and the layers will be left lamenting the cost of this perfectly executed plot mad moose -------> all in |
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Brave decsion by connections to go for this with SS - hope they all run their races and SS still hacks up as that would make him a proper superstar, but I can't believe he's still as short as he is stepping up in trip and taking on such proven 2m4f horses as Cue Card, Flemenstar and also Finians Rainbow if he's back on song.
A lay of SS for me, win and place. |