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Flemenstar V Cue Card at Aintree
Flemenstar V Cue Card at Aintree
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Replies: 131
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Hey Duffy - thank, appreciate that. But you can't be courteous, civil, rational etc on this forum, I think it's against the rules. Hope they don't chuck you off:)
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Would be very interesting to see what the betting was like if all 3 turned out. FS has always looked like he'll be best ridden aggressively over 2.5. Cue Card will take him on round there, no need to hold anything back. That will all help SS settle a bit, but I don't think it's any certainty he'll get the trip. He did only beat Cue Card 7l in the Arkle, and Cue Card is much better over 2.5. SS has probably improved as he's learned to settle.
Don't think FS will be frightened off by SS, they were keen enough to take him on in the QM at one point, and he would have far more chance over 2.5. Some race anyway if they do all show. Most of us who watched Cue Card storm up the hill 9 lengths clear wouldn't have seen much chance of him starting 3rd favourite at Aintree, but that looks a real possibility. Exciting too that they are going to experiment with trip for Sprinter. Because if he does run away with this and finish full of running, surely they have to try 3m and think about the gold cup?? |
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A massive race in prospect, CC will lead and flem and SS will stalk, with the prospect of facing CC and and more importantly flem (for my money) over this trip, I'd be surprised if SS was any shorter than 1/2
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Barry - I wouldn't think the Gold Cup would be on the agenda, but I got laughed at for saying before the Tingle Creek that IF he bolted up at Aintree and was storming away at the line, then the King George could be something to think about.
Too many people listen to what trainers have to say (and who intentionally put us away, none more so than Nick Benderson) and comments like he's an out & out 2M chaser don't seem to factor in TIME, and how a horse matures & develops. I would be absolutely shell-shocked if Sprinter Sacre DOESN'T get 20f, and I really hope we get the chance to find out, as I'm convinced he can't be beaten for stamina - it's as clear cut for me as the 10f question about Frankel some time ago. |
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Surely the prices would be something like
Sprinter Sacre 4/9 Cure Card 7/2 Flemenstar 4/1 16's bar |
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I'll go;
Sprinter Sacre 2/7 Flemenstar 9/2 Cue Card 11/2 Mr.E - as that's an 111% book I've formed, so maybe Sprinter Sacre will be around 4/11, and Cue Card could be nearer double YOUR price somewhere. I'm sure it's an appealing thought to his supporters, though it wouldn't tempt me. It's all about opinions, and hopefully we'll find out this time next week when the bookies price it up. |
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You can throw Menorah into the mix aswell
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I think i'd want to see Flemenstar in the prelims before betting him tbh.
Get the feeling Cue Card is not getting the credit he deserves for his last two wins, and I regret deserting him in the Ryanair. I think the only question for him is, what does he have left in the tank at the end of a long season? I think he is a better horse than Flemenstar. |
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Menorah cannot jump fences and would be a 25/1 shot.
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I'd take that each way.
Race could be an afterthought for sprinter sacre, cc could be over the top for the season, 3rd grade 1 in 6 weeks, Fleminsforth still has it to prove this side of the water, albertas run is past his best, captain Chris back in trip? Riverside and Finians have gone, is rubi light coming over? 8 horses or more and menorah ew is the play. |
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Are you sure? He was only 1/4 for the champion chase over a trip he was proven at against only one serious rival who was arguably past his peak. I think anything shorter than 1/2 would be a lay for sure
I would certainly back SS for a 'good few bob' at 1/2. |
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I know it would be fascinating seeing SS stepped up in trip for this race, but in some ways I kind of hope he doesn't run because I'd like to see it left for the other two to have their shoot out, again I'm probably reading it completely wrong,for me it would be flemenstar...comfortably, can't wait to see his jumping at liverpool, best jumper of a fence in training.
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From weekend chat,it seems that Cue Card will miss out on Aintree to avoid Sprinter.It could be that Cue Card will divert to Punchestown. Shame, because it would have been race of the season. Flemenstar? Can't see that getting near the big two.
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Sigh, getting worse than flat racing.
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PP opened a book.
1-3 SS Flemenstar 4-1 Cue card 7-1 20s bar Had to have a nifty on CC at 7s GL all who play |
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CC definitely looks the stand out price as I'm not entirely convinced SS will turn up
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I heard a rumour that when the tizzards take CC to the race track, they first check to see whether they are likely to bump into SS's horse box on the way
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I sincerely hope SS dodges this to go to Punchestown. A Flem v Cue Card showdown would be fascinating. They say you should never be frightened of one horse but I suspect Colin Tizzard feels that the monster will break Cue Card's heart.
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In fairness to the Tizzards, at least they have raced against SS. Other connections have ducked him. CC is still young and has many years ahead of him. He's won 3 races this season so no point in have a dust-up with Sacre now,imo.
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I actually wrote to the Tizzards suggesting they run in the Bowl
it's the ideal chance to find out if he is going to stay 3 miles plus and he would be facing inferior animals like Hunt Ball et all who are a re at least a stone lower rated the advantage is that CC is at peak fitness NOW which means you would have a definitive answer. If he didn't stay then you could plan ahead... and equally if he did The Melling teaches us nothing for the future fwiw I have CC well clear of Flemenstar as he was of Flight Lieutenant and if it's CC vs Flem without SS then CC would be a confident selection |
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"I actually wrote to the Tizzards suggesting they run in the Bowl"
Ha ha. Well good. You posted something on here the other day about Cue Card, it made so much sense that I nearly pm'd you to tell you to email it to the Tizzards. Hope you congratulated Joe on the great job he did at Chelts  |
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was a steering job Sue!! LOL any half decent jock would have won on it! Point it in the right direction and don't fall off hahahaha
seriously though, having won 3 decent races this season why would they need to go through a confrontation with that Monster, especially when you could learn something useful for the future The Bowl will be a relatively weak race as he would only be facing the likes of Hunt Ball and cape Tribulation who are not in his league. makes sense all around |
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The tizzards would be mad not to run him against SS over 2.4, they've got a bet to nothing for heavens sake,they avoided him at the festival and won the ryanir, job done, anything else from now on in is a bonus, if they get beat...so what!!! how does it hurt the horse? and over this distance where they know the track and trip will suit their horse
With SS, we don't know for sure..not for sureif he'll stay it, and he'll probably have to not only stay, but stay it well, they might just be able to give him a race, especially if they take the attitude that they've got a shot to nothing and gun their horse from the front and really put SS stamina to the test...that's the attitude they should have.....as it goes, I think flem would beat CC anyhow, but the principle is the same, in fact, the same points apply to flemenstar. |
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Flemenstar and Flight Lieutenant separated by less than a length in the Lexus
Cue Card beats FL NINE lengths in the Ryan Air, in a canter pretty much, yet somehow Flemenstar is going to beat Cue Card. Same argument made by all the mug FL backers in the Ryan Air. Flemenstar has won how many races outside Ireland exactly. Sprinter Sacre will not only stay but likely improve for the longer trip. Did he look like he was stopping at Cheltenham ffs - he never came off he bridle and was hard held, could have gone round again. Horses with that much ability can do things that other horses can't and I would avoid him like the plague with Cue Card. no need to have an overly hard race trying to beat SS. If connections are thinking about King George and Gold Cup next year (and hy wouldn't they) then the Bowl makes perfect sense. Compare that to running 3 miles first or second time up next season when the horse is not at peak condition. If he doesn't stay then would you be sure it was because he didn't see it out or was it because he wasn't fit Running in the Bowl gives a definitive answer because you can eliminate fitness from the equation |
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Duffy,agree with everything except the last bit,ie Flemenstar to beat CC. The 7-1 offered by Paddies is an absolute insult;do they know it will not run?? Judo....I know you are desperate for CC to develop over further,but why bother running against inferior horses? If you have a horse of a lifetime,why not try to demolish the absolute best of what else is around? SS didn't have too much to beat at Cheltenham,perhaps(and a huge leap of faith required) Cue Card has progressed at a better rate than the beast. Seven lengths to find and legendary status beckons.......
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ummm, if he got beat in the bowl you'd get plenty saying that the cheltenham race took more out of him than first thought...blah, blah, blah. As regards to flem and FL, I don't know how 3 miles in bad ground equates to the aintree race to be honest, at the 2.5 point of the lexus, flem was running all over them....if you want to talk about the lexus judo, how about , flem beat SDC and according to you, sdc was a whopper doodle double stakes nap for the gold cup, we haven't heard much abut that but by god, you've milked CC alright
 even to the point of descending to dsending the tizzards love letters..go on tell me to go feck myself |
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only joking!!
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sounds like cc is going to run after all.
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Ffs what a miss!
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JR - your rating of Cue Card through First Lieutenant might be a bit misleading as the latter looks a thorough stayer, and he only side-stepped the Gold Cup so his owner could have a worthy opportunity in TWO grade one races.
Also, they probably harboured doubts such as 'how can we turn the form around with Bob's Worth?' I'm sure he's better than the beating he got in the Ryanair and he'll prove that when back over 3M+. |
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I don't think Mr Tizzard is scared of Sprinter over this trip. I think he's wrong mind.
There is a big doubt over stamina though, of course there is. Last year it looked like SS was coming to the end of his tether at the end of the Arkle. He seems more settled this year though, and he does things so easily he could stay a lot further. He's bread to stay. Will be a great race if it happens anyway. |
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From a CC point of view, this is as good a chance as they are ever going to get to having any sort of chance of beating SS ever again, they'll never take him on over 2 miles and it won't be happening over further, so this chance should be taken because it gives them the chance to really elevate their horse into the stratosphere, relatively speaking, there is no downside, if he gets beat so what, they've lost nothing to their horses reputation and as for this foreboding about taking the horse on because he may inflict upon you such a beating that somehow rips the very soul and racing ability right out of your horse for the future....well, that's just melodramatic nonsense....CC and AF were both beaten in last years arkle and performance wise on the track it hasn't done them any harm, has it.
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Barry - I've mentioned this numerous times on this forum...can you tell me ANY 2M Champion Chasers (or even those bang on the premises) that DON'T get 20f?
Sprinter Sacre is probably the best one I've seen in several decades and I don't believe he can be beaten for stamina over 20f at Aintree. Someone retorted with Pearlyman (though not a bad answer) BUT he goes back 25 years! In that period, the programme has been seriously altered to cater for 20f chasers and there's plenty of opportunity to step up and try in the highest grade at the intermediate distance nowadays, and ALL seem to do it comfortably. Klairon Davis is a good example of the exception to the rule, though on careful inspection, is it CONCLUSIVE that he acquitted himself at full pelt on that rare occasion? AND since then, as I say the programme has helped to accommodate 2M chasers stepping up in trip. FWIW, I thought one of my favourites in Edredon Bleu had ZERO chance in the King George, yet I roared him home  Again, I've said numerous times that Sprinter Sacre WILL NOT be beaten for stamina, and that's a confident assertion that I've maintained since last year's Game Spirit at Newbury, and I don't give a shít who scoffs at that! |
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The point isn't wholly about whether he will want for stamina or not, it's about him being the top dog and by being that, people should be inspired to have a crack at him, that accepted, if you can get the chance to have a go at it when there are just a couple of things in your favour or a couple of unknowns, that there aren't over 2 miles, with the kudos that possible victory would bring, then battle has to be joined, there's everything to gain and very little to lose.
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I'd say that flagship uberalles didn't stay 20f
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Agreed Duffy, but I would totally understand the Tizzards cowarding out and going for The Bowl instead - I hope he doesn't (and tries to serve it up to Sprinter Scare instead) as he & Flemenstar are more than worthy opponents over a trip that COULD be out of the great one's comfort zone) but I think Judorick is correct in his view that there's not a better time to find out if Cue Card stays, and the bonus being he can avoid being 'mentally ransacked' just like Exotic Dancer was by Kauto Star.
Many racing aficionados are very confident there's a seriously good 'new kid on the block' in Sprinter Sacre, and I want to see him tested to the hilt, so I hope both worthy adversaries turn up against him - then we might have a more credible barometer to rate him by. |
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Duffy...re- Flagship Uberalles, you might have a point there but I have always forgiven a horse disappointing at Aintree after the exertions of THE Festival, and it should be remembered that he did have a couple of tries at 3M, so I expect if he was campaigned differently, he would have beaten the best at 20f.
Otherwise, why would such shrewd connections thought it was worth a try? Nevertheless, a worthy potential challenger that goes in the 'possible' category. |
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Tbh I don't see how running over 3 miles at aintree is going to show them anything more than they learned at kempton 3 months ago,yes he made mistake at kempton, but he'll hit one at aintree too, I think that they are comfortable with that for the time being, I'd be laying him at any rate.
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flagship couldn't get past ruddy potentate over 20f one time at chepstow, I've never forgiven him for that, although he did do me a favour when he became the first horse in living memory to win the champion chase without having jumped a single fence
that was deckies, or in this case dickies finest hour |
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There were ONLY TEN fences over 21f for Cue Card in The Ryanair (RP website erroneously states 17) yet incredibly, Sprinter Scare negotiated THIRTEEN over 2M - Cue Card WILL suffer at Aintree if the big guns turn up - his jumping is just NOT up to it and I know that'll piss Judorick off something wicked!
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