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BarryM
19 Mar 13 14:54
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Date Joined: 25 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 563 | Blogger: BarryM's blog
Looks like this is going to happen, race of the meeting for me. Who do you think will be favourite?

I think 2.5m round Aintree is perfect for Cue Card, especially if the ground is good-ish.  No need to conserve him round there, he can just use his speed.
But Flemenstar may also show his true colours. For me, much depends on tactics. If Flemenstar is ridden aggressively, his jumping could get CC in trouble. If he is held up and CC gets a soft lead he will be outpaced.

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Replies: 131
By:
sintonian
When: 19 Mar 13 17:42
I think CC has proved himself on Soft ground and a testing 21f so whatever the conditions are at Aintree he'll be alright. It just depends if he can win THREE Grade 1's on the spin after starting his season in October. Riverside Theatre tried it last season and failed at Aintree, albeit in the Bowl over 3m.

Flemenstar should be slightly fresher, and is every bit as good as CC, but there are some peeps who seems to think he is a poor traveller?

Don't forget if the ground is Good then Finians Rainbow may come into the reckoning.
By:
SirFresh
When: 19 Mar 13 18:19
Was about to say don't forget Finians.

If the ground came up good to soft or better I'd probably back Finians as he'd definitely be the biggest price of the three and the value, imo.

Massive fan of Cue Card and my favourite horse in training but I think he'd be too short (although he obv has every chance)
By:
duffy
When: 20 Mar 13 16:49
From what I've seen visually and just the sheer impression of him through his races I think that Flemenstar is a different class horse to CC altogether...a higher one that is before anyone asks.Grin
By:
duffy
When: 20 Mar 13 16:50
I'd go as far to say that SS apart "pound for pound" to coin a boxing phrase, I put him as the 2nd best horse in training.
By:
Mr Eboue
When: 20 Mar 13 17:05
Thats very unfair on Bobs Worth.
By:
SirFresh
When: 20 Mar 13 17:23
Cue Card's form can't be knocked, imo (many try to do so).

Flemenstar hasn't really beat any horse of note other than Sir Des Champs (over a trip not suited to SDC).

Cue Card has beaten Captain Chris, First Lieutenant, For Non Stop, Champion Court, got to within 7 lengths of Sprinter Sacre and was done a short head by Bobs Worth (giving it 7lbs).
By:
duffy
When: 20 Mar 13 17:51
Flemenstar wouldn't get the chance to beat those horses in Ireland, I'm probably deluded admittedlyLaugh but I don't even see where the debate is,over his correct trip, Flemenstar is an absolute monster, CC shouldn't even be spoken in the same sentence as himGrin
By:
duffy
When: 20 Mar 13 17:52
In fact I'd best describe it as this, cue card is a poor mans flemenstarHappy
By:
buddeliea
When: 20 Mar 13 18:01
sirfresh,
You forgot to mention that Bobsworth against Cue Card was over a trip too short for him,although you did remember to include that fact when talking about Flemenstar and SDC!!

Personally think Cue Card is one of the best chasers around,although i do think the same about Flemenstar to be honest.A race over around 2m4 would be one to look forward to for sure.
By:
The Sawyer
When: 20 Mar 13 18:05
Lets hope they both turn up and jump round - will be some race.

And I agree with you Mr E, Bobs Worth doesn't seem to be given the credit he is due. Long Run may not be the greatest horse to grace our courses, but his record stands pretty close inspection.

BW has just beaten him further than any other he has raced against.
By:
SirFresh
When: 20 Mar 13 18:43
Cue Card beat First Lieutenant quite easily and Flemenstar finished 1/2 length behind it in Ireland.

I know you will say that 3m wasn't Flemenstars ideal trip but it wasn't for FL either and FL was going just as well as Flem throughout that race...not like he outstayed him up the straight.
By:
buddeliea
When: 20 Mar 13 19:01
First Lieutenant is a 3 miler imo,Flemenstar is better over shorter imo.
Need to wait and see when they meet,their is no proper form that tells us what is likely to happen.
By:
SirFresh
When: 20 Mar 13 20:15
Just hope all 3 (Finians included) turn up.

How would you price it up if they all turned up on good to soft?
By:
Mr Eboue
When: 20 Mar 13 20:41
Cue Card 7/4
Flemenstar 9/4
Finians Rainbow 9/2
12/1 bar
By:
duffy
When: 20 Mar 13 22:23
^
I'd have flem and cc the other way round
By:
SirFresh
When: 20 Mar 13 22:42
I'd have a decent bet on Finians e/w if it paid 3 places
By:
runandskip
When: 21 Mar 13 01:56
Flemenstar @ 9\4 would be christmas come early !!!!!!
By:
Arklearkle
When: 21 Mar 13 12:11
It would be great should it happen but as usual it will too something (too soft/firm, long/short, soon/late or whatever). In all cases would expect flemenstar to go off favourite.
By:
BarryM
When: 21 Mar 13 13:39
Interesting. Cue Card's long season worries me, but I think he's much faster than Flemenstar and on good ground could lose him round Liverpool. Flemenstar is a bit like Sir des Champs in that he was hyped out of all proportion on the back of a sequence in novice company, but his best form in the book over 2.5m is probably a 5l beating of SDC in soft ground. That's not good enough, SDC wouldn't see which way Cue Card went over 2.5m.

Don't agree that the ground doesn't matter. While CC handles anything, FS looks much better on soft.
If Finians could repeat what he did last year he's be in the mix, but I don't really buy the soft ground excuse for him, I think he's gone.

Couple of points about the Cue Card defeat by Bobsworth. It was BW's first start over fences and he's probably much better now. But it's worth remembering the CC was very free and didn't get home - as they started up the run in it looked like Cue Card was going to win 10 lengths.

Duffy - please tell me you meant the 2nd best CHASER in training, otherwise I'm going to have to take you outside for insulting Big Bucks:)
By:
duffy
When: 21 Mar 13 13:51
I'm not too sure in stating that flems best form is a beating of sdc over 2.5 actually works as a "case against " argument, I think that if sdc ran against that lot that CC beat last week in the race he'd have smashed them up too, flemenstar would have marmalized them!!
By:
duffy
When: 21 Mar 13 13:58
FL= runs well against the best but doesn't win anymore, and wants further.
Champion court= not top class by any means.
riverside = beaten by half way ( and not from anything cc did)
for non stop = flatters to deceive apart from one race a year when people thought he was the 2nd coming.
albertas= past it
ghizao= never was it.

In fact, back in november this race looked to be shaping up to being one of the strongest fields of the whole festival, it was a bit disappointing in the end....CC of course did it well, but did anything really run a race.
By:
BarryM
When: 21 Mar 13 14:12
Champion Court ran SDC to 2 lengths in the Jewson.
First Lieutenant was cantering all over him until tiring on the run in at Leopardstown. Not a chance SDC would beat FL over 2.5m imvho.

I think Champion Court, Riverside and FNS all ran to their best. They arguably rather played into Cue Card's hands by letting him have an uncontested lead even when he slowed it up, but it's debatable if any of them had the speed to contest it. I rate it a seriously good performance, but that's what makes this game fun, when we can see the same thing and read it so differently.
By:
duffy
When: 21 Mar 13 14:33
I just said that I would think that sdc would beat that those horses last week in the ryanir, not as easily as flem would have beat them though, basically I'm suggesting that CC didn't beat as strong a ryanir field as it turned out as we had thought likely a good few weeks ago...he did it well though and I'd question if they all ran to their best as well.
By:
mitten
When: 22 Mar 13 18:22
I think flemenstar will win at aintree and then if he meets sprinter sacre at punchestown will join list of tried to but failed against the monster and b aimed at Ryanair air at cheltenham  7 2 1 looks good price to me
By:
ChildOfMine2
When: 23 Mar 13 00:41
You can throw Sprinter Sacre into the mix as well - Looks like he runs!
By:
BarryM
When: 23 Mar 13 02:19
Yes indeed, what a prospect that is.
By:
BarryM
When: 23 Mar 13 02:21
I understood that's what you were saying Duffy. I was just - respectfully - disagreeing with you. I think if SDC had run in the Ryanair against the same field he'd have been third at best.
By:
duffy
When: 23 Mar 13 03:06
No probs barry, I didn't mean to sound offish there, it all came out wrong, I had something else written first but deleted it, so it left the rest sounding a bit off.Blush
By:
twonky
When: 23 Mar 13 12:28
According to Nicky Henderson, Sprinter Sacre is heading there as well. An afterthought to ensure the trainer's title?
By:
SirFresh
When: 23 Mar 13 14:26
Well that certainly changes things
By:
alleged22
When: 23 Mar 13 14:39
i,ll be all over flem for this, monster or no monster Cool
By:
SirFresh
When: 23 Mar 13 15:21
Hendo on C4 just asked about it and sounds like he's leaning that way Excited
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 23 Mar 13 16:37
SF - I certainly hope so but Henderson seems to enjoy leaving us in the dark...never mind the paddle, we haven't even got the canoe!
By:
SirFresh
When: 23 Mar 13 18:48
What price would Sprinter go off if he ran?

1/2?
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 23 Mar 13 18:52
I'd assume he'd be a bit shorter than that...if all three turned up, then probably around 2/7 perhaps?
I wouldn't be happy to lay Sprinter Sacre at anything over 1.2 but maybe I'm a coward.
By:
SirFresh
When: 23 Mar 13 19:17
Are you sure? He was only 1/4 for the champion chase over a trip he was proven at against only one serious rival who was arguably past his peak.

I think anything shorter than 1/2 would be a lay for sure.
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 23 Mar 13 19:31
I'm far from sure about the price but I'm relatively confident that Cue Card won't be up to challenging Sprinter Sacre, even over HIS optimal trip!
I was very disappointed by his fencing in The Ryanair, though winning that so comfortably emphasises the size of his engine.

Conversely, if Sprinter Sacre opts for Punchestown instead, then I wouldn't be surprised if Cue Card can beat Flemenstar though I do slightly favour the Irish horse, as he's a natural fencer with plenty of class.

The possibility of a faster surface may be troublesome, as well as the reservations his connections have stated about travelling - as a potential duel (without SS) it's a sit back & enjoy race for me.
By:
festivalfanatic
When: 23 Mar 13 20:42
I'll be surprised if the monster runs at Aintree, especially if the ground dries out. Mildmay is a very sharp track which has facked up many a good horse. Punchestown much more up his alley and despite his record at Cheltenham, I think SS is better going right handed.
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 23 Mar 13 21:33
FF - I don't think the track matters at all to a class act like Sprinter Sacre
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