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metro john
16 Feb 13 20:43
Joined:
Date Joined: 02 Jan 07
| Topic/replies: 26,193 | Blogger: metro john's blog
Looks a plot,ground my main concern? we could do with a warming spring,but other than thatScared plenty of positives. 

So what do your fancies?
Pause Switch to Standard View NINE REALMS - The Lincoln
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Report metro john February 16, 2013 8:44 PM GMT
or even ,what do you fancy!
Report slowerthanjohn February 17, 2013 3:23 PM GMT
Have to agree with Nine Realms,I'm pretty sure he was entered in the St James Place at Royal Ascot. Haggas is a man to respect in any handicap but especially in Yorkshire ;)
Report roobuck February 17, 2013 4:40 PM GMT
Nine Realms a decent shout, as is the Gosden horse. They seem the obvious unexposed ones, but a much better price is Dream Tune.

Of the others I think this could be an ideal opportunity for Jacks Revenge but I'd like to see him have a prep.
Report durose13 February 17, 2013 8:58 PM GMT
Captain Bertie,even tho 10lb higher than when unlucky loser in consolation must surely go close.
Report topfarrier February 18, 2013 11:19 AM GMT
Billyford will win the lincoln.

Now don't come back and tell me you were not told....Laugh
Report liberator of the oppressed February 18, 2013 6:51 PM GMT
topfarrier ..forgive my ignorance but will it get it off 94?
Report roobuck February 18, 2013 7:30 PM GMT
Guaranteed a run already unless loads pick up a penalty
Report liberator of the oppressed February 18, 2013 7:58 PM GMT
Thanks Roo. Might have a nibble at 33's for an interest. Like topfarrier. Knows his stuff like workrider seems to do.
Report TEN2FOLLOWER February 20, 2013 7:40 PM GMT
Nine Realms.
Report roadrunner46 February 20, 2013 9:04 PM GMT
definitely not nine realms, initial first impression, solar deity 20/1 available.
a horse with a future. such a big field difficult to know what will run.gl
Report durose13 February 21, 2013 2:25 PM GMT
Frankincense then Pablo and now Captain Bertie this Hills team know how to win a Lincoln.Assured of a run and stii 19.5 on here.
Report BJG February 21, 2013 2:37 PM GMT
Will av to b a 100+ horse to win here off 94^? dont think he is tbh
Report bigphatairyarse February 21, 2013 6:46 PM GMT
is still 9/1 with 1 bookmaker

Surprised
Report metro john February 26, 2013 7:45 PM GMT
Some good thoughts there,think my short list now down to four ? 

1st Nine realmsCool
2nd Billyford(topfarrier)Wink
3rd Sweet lightning  (always runs a race round donny)
4th Bertiewhittle(non stayer but on my wishlist)Tongue Out
Report roadrunner46 March 9, 2013 2:28 PM GMT
solar deity listed class nowCool
like I said a horse with a future.
Report BJG March 9, 2013 4:37 PM GMT
Ground would wanna b seriously drying out for NR to rock up imo Cool
Report thegiggilo March 9, 2013 8:14 PM GMT
Poor race on the aw solar deity won.
Report roadrunner46 March 9, 2013 9:24 PM GMT
that race was weak, that's why looked such a good bet today. you could say tarooq's
race was much the same, more impressive racking up a 5 timer. good cards this week.
Report kenco March 9, 2013 9:45 PM GMT
Wouldn't say solar deity looked a good bet running against horses like kenny power that had different class form on turf running against 100+ horses in meydan,obviously nowhere near as good on the aw verse of love running off 86 third beaten 2ls sloar deity obviously better aw horse.I wouldn't want to be following those runners on the aw in future on that form.
Report roadrunner46 March 11, 2013 5:42 PM GMT
strictly silver Lincoln trial winner and has already won around Doncaster 14/1 got a chance.
Report topfarrier March 11, 2013 6:57 PM GMT
Have to agree about Solar Deity's race...quite possibly the worst listed race ever run?

Wouldn't have Strictly Silver either tbh....highest rating he won off before Saturday was 81!....won off 92 this time with a 7lb claim which effectively renders his winning mark to 85.

With a 5lb penalty he is going to have to run off 97 in the Lincoln.
Report roadrunner46 March 11, 2013 7:17 PM GMT
extra 5lbs penalty , will need to improve then, which is not beyond the realms of possibilitys.
what makes you think billyford can win the Lincoln ?, cant find anything to suggest thats even
remotely possible. does anyone know how the younger horses perform in the Lincoln?
Report roadrunner46 March 13, 2013 1:52 AM GMT
last 32 runnings of Lincoln (stats)
50% chance of a 4 year old winner
78% chance of a 4/5 year old winner
78% chance winner carrying less than 9 stone
averaged sp of the winner is 16/1
stats say 4/5 year old winner carrying
9 stone or less and with a sp of 16/1 or
higher. don't know yet which horses will
fit the criteria of the stats analysis. gl
Report duncan idaho March 17, 2013 1:32 PM GMT
roadrunner,
what % of runners were 4yos?
what % of runners were 4/5yos?
what % of runners carried less than 9 stone?


average SP is a practically meaningless stat (5x evens winners and 5x 25/1 winners= ave SP 13/1...back 13/1 shots?!?= 0 winners)
Report roobuck March 17, 2013 2:04 PM GMT
Anton Chigurh in the likely conditions I've now decided. If he is in the 5 day decs, that'll do for me. The other potentially unexposed 4yos seem better in quicker conditions.

Billyford mentioned a lot - surely he'll want better ground as well?
Report roadrunner46 March 17, 2013 6:10 PM GMT
the way the weather is going, soft ground horses could be the best bets in the race,
don't know those stats, just found that on the internet, basic summary of the last
32 runnings nothing conclusive, just young horses do well, with low weights and good sp's.
Report topfarrier March 17, 2013 8:32 PM GMT
You're quite right roobuck .......soft ground would be a worry in fact i don't think he would run ....however the official going at the moment is Good to Soft, Soft in Places and the

forecast is not too bad...just the possibility of 4mm of rain tomorrow and the rest of the week is clear...Doncaster does have a decent drainage system too.

Anyway i'll see if i can speak to somebody at the course tomorrow to get a clearer picture.
Report knot in wood March 17, 2013 9:38 PM GMT
the one i like at decent odds is global village.
much improved since joining the shrewd brian ellison yard,caught my eye in the trial at wolver.
won last seasons victoria cup at ascot and also run good races in the international and buckingham palace,finishing a close fourth in both.
also was 3rd in newburys spring cup,which puts him roughly the same horse as the well fancied captain bertie at the weights.
dont mind soft ground,and hopefully will run a good race at big odds.
Report BJG March 18, 2013 1:15 PM GMT
Majestic Myles (IRE)    5       9 7
Dance And Dance (IRE)    7       9 4
Arsaadi (IRE)    4       9 2
Prince of Johanne (IRE)    7       9 2
Belgian Bill (GB)    5       9 2
Miblish (GB)    4       8 12
Monsieur Chevalier (IRE)    6       8 12
Chapter Seven (GB)    4       8 12
Shamaal Nibras (USA)    4       8 11
Memory Cloth (GB)    6       8 11
Strictly Silver (IRE)    4       8 6
Solar Deity (IRE)    4       8 6
Hit The Jackpot (IRE)    4       8 10
Brae Hill (IRE)    7       8 9
Tandem (GB)    4       8 9
Lahaag (GB)    4       8 9
Global Village (IRE)    8       8 8
Billyford (IRE)    8       8 8
Justonefortheroad (GB)    7       8 8
Captain Bertie (IRE)    5       8 8
Eshtibaak (IRE)    5       8 7
Nine Realms (GB)    4       8 7
Swiftly Done (IRE)    6       8 7
Muffin McLeay (IRE)    5       8 6
Capaill Liath (IRE)    5       8 6
Gladys' Gal (GB)    5       8 6
Anderiego (IRE)    5       8 6
Chosen Character (IRE)    5       8 6
Anton Chigurh (GB)    4       8 5
Bancnuanaheireann (IRE)    6       8 5
Trail Blaze (IRE)    4       8 5
Levitate (GB)    5       8 4
Dubai Dynamo (GB)    8       8 4
Laffan (IRE)    4       8 4
Garde Cotiere (USA)    5       8 4
Gaul Wood (IRE)    4       8 3
Myboyalfie (USA)    6       8 3
Discression (GB)    4       8 3
Las Verglas Star (IRE)    5       8 3
Pilgrims Rest (IRE)    4       8 3
Educate (GB)    4       8 2
Mawaakef (IRE)    5       8 2
Verse of Love (GB)    4       8 2
Nameitwhatyoulike (GB)    4       8 2
Frog Hollow (GB)    4       8 2
Lockantanks (GB)    6       8 2
Norse Blues (GB)    5       8 2
Roninski (IRE)    5       8 1
Accession (IRE)    4       8 1
Dubai Hills (GB)    7       7 10
King of Eden (IRE)    7       8 0
Mont Ras (IRE)    6       7 13
Ocean Tempest (GB)    4       7 13
Yojimbo (IRE)    5       7 13
Takeitfromalady (IRE)    4       7 13
Guest of Honour (IRE)    4       7 13
Satanic Beat (IRE)    4       7 12
Docofthebay (IRE)    9       7 7
Swing Alone (IRE)    4       7 11
Haaf A Sixpence (GB)    4       7 11
Extraterrestrial (GB)    9       7 10
Music In The Rain (IRE)    5       7 8
Hi There (IRE)    4       7 8
Barren Brook (GB)    6       7 8
Mr Spiggott (IRE)    4       7 8
Askaud (IRE)    5       7 6
Dutch Old Master (GB)    4       7 5
Nazreef (GB)    6       7 4
Patriotic (IRE)    5       6 11
Great Expectations (GB)    5       7 1
Day of The Eagle (IRE)    7       6 13
Report liam the lips March 18, 2013 1:33 PM GMT
Strictly Silver appeals at ze mo esp with Tarts claim, that York run behind Trade Storm when he was a 3yo looking very tasty given the winners exploits in the desert lately.
Report roobuck March 18, 2013 5:59 PM GMT
Nice horse but had claimer on board last time to get weight down to where he was when he ran against Trade Storm. Not managed a win off the higher rating before so wouldn't have thought he'd have much in hand though of course he may be on the upgrade. Think he needs a sound surface to show his best as well.

If on at bigger prices then fair enough but not at 10s for me.

Also if Weld sends over Tandem then I'd have to have that on side as well.

Now backed Anton Chigurgh e/w @ 20s - even more rain would be good.
Report topfarrier March 18, 2013 7:12 PM GMT
Talked to the clerk of the course this morning....he predicted soft ground at best for Saturday.....Cry......ah well, back to the drawing board.

I'd agree with the points you made above Roo especially regarding Tandam.....i found it interesting that Weld confirmed his entry this morning as he's in the Irish Lincoln on Sunday and i thought he might go that way.

Anton Chigurgh needs a few to come out doesn't he?
Report roobuck March 18, 2013 7:41 PM GMT
He does topfarrier but am pretty confident that they want to go so if they declare him and he doesn't get in I get my money back.

Got to wait for day of race market for Tandem
Report durose13 March 18, 2013 7:57 PM GMT

Feb 21, 2013 -- 2:25PM, durose13 wrote:


Frankincense then Pablo and now Captain Bertie this Hills team know how to win a Lincoln.Assured of a run and stii 19.5 on here.


hope you all on

Report MrDinos March 18, 2013 8:54 PM GMT
Agree with some of you guys regarding Anton Chigurh, he looks the right type with the forecast ground conditions. Ticks a lot of boxes but my only doubt is the trainer! I'm not a big fan of Dascombe, I wouldn't be that confident he will have AC cherry ripe to win a Lincoln. At the current prices he does look tempting but I think I will wait for final declarations before I place a bet.

Of the older brigade I like the look of Swiftly Done, he's got course form and won in testing conditions as well. He ran an eye catching race last year in the Betfred Mile at Goodwood, he got badly hampered and lost a lot of momentum when he was just about to make his big move. Once he managed to got some room he finished very well and wasn't far behind Boom And Bust who went on to finish a close 3rd in the Cambridgeshire. His only bad runs last year and year before were when he was stepped up in trip which he clearly didn't want and I think there is still some room for improvement off his current mark with this in mind. All SD wants IMO is a strongly run 8f to show his best and hopefully that's what he might get in the Lincoln Saturday!

Good luck all
Report topfarrier March 19, 2013 8:24 AM GMT
Just a word of warning Roo.....Anton Chigurh is also in the Irish Lincoln...where he is guaranteed a run.
Report roobuck March 19, 2013 8:37 AM GMT
Yes he is but they declare for Ireland a day or 2 days later. If he gets in at Donny I'm fairly confident that's where they will aim him. If he doesn't then as I say money back.

I accept that there's a chance they will forget it and just go for Ireland but there's always a chance with any AP bet
Report topfarrier March 19, 2013 8:42 AM GMT
Best of luck anyway.
Report roobuck March 19, 2013 9:04 AM GMT
Thanks - very good chance he'll run unplaced anyway Laugh

What do you think they'll do with Billyford - keep him ticking over waiting for better ground or give it a go regardless?
Report liberator of the oppressed March 19, 2013 12:35 PM GMT
Roo .. out to 80 on here so looks unlikely Billy will be going to Donnie.
Report I'M THE MAN March 19, 2013 1:57 PM GMT
Have heard that Nine Realms is lame and very doubtful
Report metro john March 20, 2013 6:39 PM GMT
Bloody weatherCryCryCryCryCry young twistons mount wont mind cut!
Report Chad Collins number wan March 20, 2013 6:58 PM GMT
Brae Hill a big player off the same mark as the last two years when 2nd and 1st.  Handles the heavy stuff, 22 at the moment, surely trades lower.
Report topfarrier March 20, 2013 7:33 PM GMT
A slight doubt now that the race will take place!.....ShockedExcited
Report unclepuncle March 22, 2013 3:11 PM GMT
Memory Cloth @ 36 for me - hope it goes ahead though the weather forecast isn't looking too hopeful.
Report MrDinos March 22, 2013 7:37 PM GMT
I'm sticking with Swiftly Done and took the 25-1 that was on offer. Don't know much about the jock onboard Luke Leadbitter but the 7Ib claim might help matters with the way the ground is. The draw doesn't look too bad either!!!

Fingers crossed it goes ahead.
Report metro john March 30, 2013 3:27 PM GMT
Fantastic ride on the winner,horses for courses
ExcitedWinkWink
Report roadrunner46 March 30, 2013 5:43 PM GMT
you got the winner, you didn't post it before the result on your own thread.
stats showed the way, young horse, low weight, good sp.Wink
Report metro john March 30, 2013 6:32 PM GMT
look at the sad faces threadWinkLaugh
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