Horse Antepost
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Looks a plot,ground my main concern? we could do with a warming spring,but other than that
plenty of positives.
So what do your fancies?
plenty of positives. So what do your fancies?
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or even ,what do you fancy!
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Have to agree with Nine Realms,I'm pretty sure he was entered in the St James Place at Royal Ascot. Haggas is a man to respect in any handicap but especially in Yorkshire ;)
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Nine Realms a decent shout, as is the Gosden horse. They seem the obvious unexposed ones, but a much better price is Dream Tune.
Of the others I think this could be an ideal opportunity for Jacks Revenge but I'd like to see him have a prep. |
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Captain Bertie,even tho 10lb higher than when unlucky loser in consolation must surely go close.
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Billyford will win the lincoln.
Now don't come back and tell me you were not told....  |
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topfarrier ..forgive my ignorance but will it get it off 94?
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Guaranteed a run already unless loads pick up a penalty
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Thanks Roo. Might have a nibble at 33's for an interest. Like topfarrier. Knows his stuff like workrider seems to do.
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Nine Realms.
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definitely not nine realms, initial first impression, solar deity 20/1 available.
a horse with a future. such a big field difficult to know what will run.gl |
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Frankincense then Pablo and now Captain Bertie this Hills team know how to win a Lincoln.Assured of a run and stii 19.5 on here.
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Will av to b a 100+ horse to win here off 94^? dont think he is tbh
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is still 9/1 with 1 bookmaker
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Some good thoughts there,think my short list now down to four ?
1st Nine realms  2nd Billyford(topfarrier)  3rd Sweet lightning (always runs a race round donny) 4th Bertiewhittle(non stayer but on my wishlist)  |
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solar deity listed class now
like I said a horse with a future. |
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Ground would wanna b seriously drying out for NR to rock up imo
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Poor race on the aw solar deity won.
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that race was weak, that's why looked such a good bet today. you could say tarooq's
race was much the same, more impressive racking up a 5 timer. good cards this week. |
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Wouldn't say solar deity looked a good bet running against horses like kenny power that had different class form on turf running against 100+ horses in meydan,obviously nowhere near as good on the aw verse of love running off 86 third beaten 2ls sloar deity obviously better aw horse.I wouldn't want to be following those runners on the aw in future on that form.
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strictly silver Lincoln trial winner and has already won around Doncaster 14/1 got a chance.
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Have to agree about Solar Deity's race...quite possibly the worst listed race ever run?
Wouldn't have Strictly Silver either tbh....highest rating he won off before Saturday was 81!....won off 92 this time with a 7lb claim which effectively renders his winning mark to 85. With a 5lb penalty he is going to have to run off 97 in the Lincoln. |
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extra 5lbs penalty , will need to improve then, which is not beyond the realms of possibilitys.
what makes you think billyford can win the Lincoln ?, cant find anything to suggest thats even remotely possible. does anyone know how the younger horses perform in the Lincoln? |
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last 32 runnings of Lincoln (stats)
50% chance of a 4 year old winner 78% chance of a 4/5 year old winner 78% chance winner carrying less than 9 stone averaged sp of the winner is 16/1 stats say 4/5 year old winner carrying 9 stone or less and with a sp of 16/1 or higher. don't know yet which horses will fit the criteria of the stats analysis. gl |
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roadrunner,
what % of runners were 4yos? what % of runners were 4/5yos? what % of runners carried less than 9 stone? average SP is a practically meaningless stat (5x evens winners and 5x 25/1 winners= ave SP 13/1...back 13/1 shots?!?= 0 winners) |
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Anton Chigurh in the likely conditions I've now decided. If he is in the 5 day decs, that'll do for me. The other potentially unexposed 4yos seem better in quicker conditions.
Billyford mentioned a lot - surely he'll want better ground as well? |
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the way the weather is going, soft ground horses could be the best bets in the race,
don't know those stats, just found that on the internet, basic summary of the last 32 runnings nothing conclusive, just young horses do well, with low weights and good sp's. |
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You're quite right roobuck .......soft ground would be a worry in fact i don't think he would run ....however the official going at the moment is Good to Soft, Soft in Places and the
forecast is not too bad...just the possibility of 4mm of rain tomorrow and the rest of the week is clear...Doncaster does have a decent drainage system too. Anyway i'll see if i can speak to somebody at the course tomorrow to get a clearer picture. |
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the one i like at decent odds is global village.
much improved since joining the shrewd brian ellison yard,caught my eye in the trial at wolver. won last seasons victoria cup at ascot and also run good races in the international and buckingham palace,finishing a close fourth in both. also was 3rd in newburys spring cup,which puts him roughly the same horse as the well fancied captain bertie at the weights. dont mind soft ground,and hopefully will run a good race at big odds. |
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Majestic Myles (IRE) 5 9 7
Dance And Dance (IRE) 7 9 4 Arsaadi (IRE) 4 9 2 Prince of Johanne (IRE) 7 9 2 Belgian Bill (GB) 5 9 2 Miblish (GB) 4 8 12 Monsieur Chevalier (IRE) 6 8 12 Chapter Seven (GB) 4 8 12 Shamaal Nibras (USA) 4 8 11 Memory Cloth (GB) 6 8 11 Strictly Silver (IRE) 4 8 6 Solar Deity (IRE) 4 8 6 Hit The Jackpot (IRE) 4 8 10 Brae Hill (IRE) 7 8 9 Tandem (GB) 4 8 9 Lahaag (GB) 4 8 9 Global Village (IRE) 8 8 8 Billyford (IRE) 8 8 8 Justonefortheroad (GB) 7 8 8 Captain Bertie (IRE) 5 8 8 Eshtibaak (IRE) 5 8 7 Nine Realms (GB) 4 8 7 Swiftly Done (IRE) 6 8 7 Muffin McLeay (IRE) 5 8 6 Capaill Liath (IRE) 5 8 6 Gladys' Gal (GB) 5 8 6 Anderiego (IRE) 5 8 6 Chosen Character (IRE) 5 8 6 Anton Chigurh (GB) 4 8 5 Bancnuanaheireann (IRE) 6 8 5 Trail Blaze (IRE) 4 8 5 Levitate (GB) 5 8 4 Dubai Dynamo (GB) 8 8 4 Laffan (IRE) 4 8 4 Garde Cotiere (USA) 5 8 4 Gaul Wood (IRE) 4 8 3 Myboyalfie (USA) 6 8 3 Discression (GB) 4 8 3 Las Verglas Star (IRE) 5 8 3 Pilgrims Rest (IRE) 4 8 3 Educate (GB) 4 8 2 Mawaakef (IRE) 5 8 2 Verse of Love (GB) 4 8 2 Nameitwhatyoulike (GB) 4 8 2 Frog Hollow (GB) 4 8 2 Lockantanks (GB) 6 8 2 Norse Blues (GB) 5 8 2 Roninski (IRE) 5 8 1 Accession (IRE) 4 8 1 Dubai Hills (GB) 7 7 10 King of Eden (IRE) 7 8 0 Mont Ras (IRE) 6 7 13 Ocean Tempest (GB) 4 7 13 Yojimbo (IRE) 5 7 13 Takeitfromalady (IRE) 4 7 13 Guest of Honour (IRE) 4 7 13 Satanic Beat (IRE) 4 7 12 Docofthebay (IRE) 9 7 7 Swing Alone (IRE) 4 7 11 Haaf A Sixpence (GB) 4 7 11 Extraterrestrial (GB) 9 7 10 Music In The Rain (IRE) 5 7 8 Hi There (IRE) 4 7 8 Barren Brook (GB) 6 7 8 Mr Spiggott (IRE) 4 7 8 Askaud (IRE) 5 7 6 Dutch Old Master (GB) 4 7 5 Nazreef (GB) 6 7 4 Patriotic (IRE) 5 6 11 Great Expectations (GB) 5 7 1 Day of The Eagle (IRE) 7 6 13 |
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Strictly Silver appeals at ze mo esp with Tarts claim, that York run behind Trade Storm when he was a 3yo looking very tasty given the winners exploits in the desert lately.
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Nice horse but had claimer on board last time to get weight down to where he was when he ran against Trade Storm. Not managed a win off the higher rating before so wouldn't have thought he'd have much in hand though of course he may be on the upgrade. Think he needs a sound surface to show his best as well.
If on at bigger prices then fair enough but not at 10s for me. Also if Weld sends over Tandem then I'd have to have that on side as well. Now backed Anton Chigurgh e/w @ 20s - even more rain would be good. |
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Talked to the clerk of the course this morning....he predicted soft ground at best for Saturday.....
 ......ah well, back to the drawing board.I'd agree with the points you made above Roo especially regarding Tandam.....i found it interesting that Weld confirmed his entry this morning as he's in the Irish Lincoln on Sunday and i thought he might go that way. Anton Chigurgh needs a few to come out doesn't he? |
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He does topfarrier but am pretty confident that they want to go so if they declare him and he doesn't get in I get my money back.
Got to wait for day of race market for Tandem |
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Agree with some of you guys regarding Anton Chigurh, he looks the right type with the forecast ground conditions. Ticks a lot of boxes but my only doubt is the trainer! I'm not a big fan of Dascombe, I wouldn't be that confident he will have AC cherry ripe to win a Lincoln. At the current prices he does look tempting but I think I will wait for final declarations before I place a bet.
Of the older brigade I like the look of Swiftly Done, he's got course form and won in testing conditions as well. He ran an eye catching race last year in the Betfred Mile at Goodwood, he got badly hampered and lost a lot of momentum when he was just about to make his big move. Once he managed to got some room he finished very well and wasn't far behind Boom And Bust who went on to finish a close 3rd in the Cambridgeshire. His only bad runs last year and year before were when he was stepped up in trip which he clearly didn't want and I think there is still some room for improvement off his current mark with this in mind. All SD wants IMO is a strongly run 8f to show his best and hopefully that's what he might get in the Lincoln Saturday! Good luck all |
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Just a word of warning Roo.....Anton Chigurh is also in the Irish Lincoln...where he is guaranteed a run.
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Yes he is but they declare for Ireland a day or 2 days later. If he gets in at Donny I'm fairly confident that's where they will aim him. If he doesn't then as I say money back.
I accept that there's a chance they will forget it and just go for Ireland but there's always a chance with any AP bet |
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Best of luck anyway.
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Thanks - very good chance he'll run unplaced anyway
What do you think they'll do with Billyford - keep him ticking over waiting for better ground or give it a go regardless? |