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Trends for last 10 runnings of Haydock Grand National Trial (http://tinyurl.com/b9eqnzm):
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-0-2
7yo: 2-7-20
8yo: 2-6-33
9yo: 3-4-27
10yo: 1-2-27
11yo+: 2-4-21
12yo+: 0-1-12
Horses aged 7 to 9 have a combined record of 7-17-82
Horses aged 10 or older have a combined record of 3-7-60
All 3 winners aged 10+ finished 1st or 2nd in a handicap chase worth 15K+ last time.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-7 to 11-13: 2-4-18
Horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 2-5-35
Horses carrying 10-6 to 10-13: 3-8-44
Horses carrying 10-0 to 10-5: 3-6-38
Horses carrying 9-13 or less: 0-0-7
Not a huge amount to go on with the weights with the weights of the winners being fairly evenly spread out.
Top Weight: 13PFPP1321P2 (3-4-12) have gained 3 wins and 4 places since 2003.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 147 to 158: 2-5-24
Horses rated 135 to 146: 6-10-61
Horses rated 118 to 134: 2-9-57
The last 5 winners were all officially rated 138 to 149.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners won or placed last time out (exception was Silver By Nature winning it for 2nd year)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 144+ on previous start
10 of 10 winner achieved previous career high RPR at a left-handed track
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 7F+
10 of 10 winners had won 2 to 4 chases
10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 11 handicap chases
7 of 10 winners had won no more than one handicap chase
8 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or better chase (both exceptions had won a class 3 chase)
9 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 17K+ (exception twice 2nd in Welsh National)
9 of 10 winners contested a class 2 or better handicap chase over 3M+ on one or both of last 2 starts (exception won a grade 2 novice chase last time)
3 of 10 winners had previously won at Haydock (5 of other 7 were having first course start)
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Giles Cross): 21 (1-1-2)
Welsh National winner (Monbeg Dude): P51P3 (1-1-5)
Highest placed Welsh National finisher: P1P5318P23 (2-3-10)
Classic Chase winner (Rigadin De Beauchene): 6P4P(0-1-4)
Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase winner (Cannington Brook): 0 (0-0-1)
5 of 10 winners (last 3) ran in the Welsh Grand National, finishing 51272
2 of 10 winners ran in the Classic Chase, finishing 27
2 of 10 winners ran in the Cumberland Handicap Chase, finishing 61
8 of 10 winners had previously finished in first 2 in one of Welsh, Scottish, Summer or Scottish Borders Nationals (1 exception was a novice chaser and the other won the Grand Sefton on previous start)
Racing Tactics
10 of 10 winners led or raced prominently from fifth fence
Trainers
Lucinda Russell (2-0-3) has won 2 of the last 3 renewals with Silver By Nature.
Victor Dartnall (1-0-2) and Michael Scudamore (1-0-2) have also won this in past 6 years.
Sue Smith (0-2-6), Alan King (0-2-6) & Venetia Williams (0-2-10) have all saddled couple of placed finishers since 2003.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-1-12) last won this in 2001 but only 1 of his 12 runners in past 10 years have made the places.
None of the six Irish-trained runners (0-0-6) have made the frame.
Price
9 of 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 18/1
Favourites (1-3-12) have a poor record having gained just one win (last year) in the past 10 renewals, giving a level stakes loss of 6.00.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 7 to 9 (or finished in first 2 in h’cap chase worth 15K+ last time)
• Top weight does well
• Officially rated 138 to 149
• Won or placed last time out
• Posted an RPR of 144 or higher last time
• Posted career high RPR at left-handed track
• Contested a class 2 handicap chase over 3M+ on 1 or both of last 2 starts
• Won over 2M 7F or further
• Won 2 to 4 times over fences
• Run in 11 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1)
• Course winner (or having first run here)
• Finished in first 2 in Scottish, Welsh, Summer or Scottish Borders National
• Finished in first 5 in Welsh National this season
• Won a class 2 or better chase worth 17K+
• Tends to race prominently
• Trained by Lucinda Russell
• Priced between 7/1 and 18/1
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-0-2
7yo: 2-7-20
8yo: 2-6-33
9yo: 3-4-27
10yo: 1-2-27
11yo+: 2-4-21
12yo+: 0-1-12
Horses aged 7 to 9 have a combined record of 7-17-82
Horses aged 10 or older have a combined record of 3-7-60
All 3 winners aged 10+ finished 1st or 2nd in a handicap chase worth 15K+ last time.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-7 to 11-13: 2-4-18
Horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 2-5-35
Horses carrying 10-6 to 10-13: 3-8-44
Horses carrying 10-0 to 10-5: 3-6-38
Horses carrying 9-13 or less: 0-0-7
Not a huge amount to go on with the weights with the weights of the winners being fairly evenly spread out.
Top Weight: 13PFPP1321P2 (3-4-12) have gained 3 wins and 4 places since 2003.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 147 to 158: 2-5-24
Horses rated 135 to 146: 6-10-61
Horses rated 118 to 134: 2-9-57
The last 5 winners were all officially rated 138 to 149.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners won or placed last time out (exception was Silver By Nature winning it for 2nd year)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 144+ on previous start
10 of 10 winner achieved previous career high RPR at a left-handed track
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 7F+
10 of 10 winners had won 2 to 4 chases
10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 11 handicap chases
7 of 10 winners had won no more than one handicap chase
8 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or better chase (both exceptions had won a class 3 chase)
9 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 17K+ (exception twice 2nd in Welsh National)
9 of 10 winners contested a class 2 or better handicap chase over 3M+ on one or both of last 2 starts (exception won a grade 2 novice chase last time)
3 of 10 winners had previously won at Haydock (5 of other 7 were having first course start)
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Giles Cross): 21 (1-1-2)
Welsh National winner (Monbeg Dude): P51P3 (1-1-5)
Highest placed Welsh National finisher: P1P5318P23 (2-3-10)
Classic Chase winner (Rigadin De Beauchene): 6P4P(0-1-4)
Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase winner (Cannington Brook): 0 (0-0-1)
5 of 10 winners (last 3) ran in the Welsh Grand National, finishing 51272
2 of 10 winners ran in the Classic Chase, finishing 27
2 of 10 winners ran in the Cumberland Handicap Chase, finishing 61
8 of 10 winners had previously finished in first 2 in one of Welsh, Scottish, Summer or Scottish Borders Nationals (1 exception was a novice chaser and the other won the Grand Sefton on previous start)
Racing Tactics
10 of 10 winners led or raced prominently from fifth fence
Trainers
Lucinda Russell (2-0-3) has won 2 of the last 3 renewals with Silver By Nature.
Victor Dartnall (1-0-2) and Michael Scudamore (1-0-2) have also won this in past 6 years.
Sue Smith (0-2-6), Alan King (0-2-6) & Venetia Williams (0-2-10) have all saddled couple of placed finishers since 2003.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-1-12) last won this in 2001 but only 1 of his 12 runners in past 10 years have made the places.
None of the six Irish-trained runners (0-0-6) have made the frame.
Price
9 of 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 18/1
Favourites (1-3-12) have a poor record having gained just one win (last year) in the past 10 renewals, giving a level stakes loss of 6.00.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 7 to 9 (or finished in first 2 in h’cap chase worth 15K+ last time)
• Top weight does well
• Officially rated 138 to 149
• Won or placed last time out
• Posted an RPR of 144 or higher last time
• Posted career high RPR at left-handed track
• Contested a class 2 handicap chase over 3M+ on 1 or both of last 2 starts
• Won over 2M 7F or further
• Won 2 to 4 times over fences
• Run in 11 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1)
• Course winner (or having first run here)
• Finished in first 2 in Scottish, Welsh, Summer or Scottish Borders National
• Finished in first 5 in Welsh National this season
• Won a class 2 or better chase worth 17K+
• Tends to race prominently
• Trained by Lucinda Russell
• Priced between 7/1 and 18/1
Show More
Nice stats Racecall, are they your own or are they available somewhere on the web? Cheers
Do them up myself on Racecaller.com for the big weekend race(s) and also all the Cheltenham races. Link to this one at http://tinyurl.com/b9eqnzm
sorry racecaller,not enough information,do you want to try again ?
I have a problem with this type of analysis. If you understand statistics, you'd know that unless a race has been run about 100 times, these facts are not statistically significant (meaning they could easily be random variations).
I really like Giles Cross for this, looks a very good EW to me. There are 3 unexposed types (I'm including Monbeg Dude in that category as he seems to do just what he has to and no more), so one of those might easily be thrown in, but none of them are well handicapped on what they've actually achieved. Tea for Three has been a false price and is now drifting, but still way too short. The trip is a bit sharp for him and he's gone up 7lb for being beaten in a poor Welsh National. Giles Cross is fresh as a daisy and should now be fit as a flea. Most importantly, he has his perfect combination of trip & ground - I've always felt 3.5m is as far as he wants, he never seems to quite get home at Chepstow. Won very cosily last year from a well handicapped Neptune Collonges and only up 6lb for that, if he runs the same tomorrow he has a great chance and can't be out of the money. He's one of the few in the race for which tomorrow is the target, rather than a stepping stone.
I really like Giles Cross for this, looks a very good EW to me. There are 3 unexposed types (I'm including Monbeg Dude in that category as he seems to do just what he has to and no more), so one of those might easily be thrown in, but none of them are well handicapped on what they've actually achieved. Tea for Three has been a false price and is now drifting, but still way too short. The trip is a bit sharp for him and he's gone up 7lb for being beaten in a poor Welsh National. Giles Cross is fresh as a daisy and should now be fit as a flea. Most importantly, he has his perfect combination of trip & ground - I've always felt 3.5m is as far as he wants, he never seems to quite get home at Chepstow. Won very cosily last year from a well handicapped Neptune Collonges and only up 6lb for that, if he runs the same tomorrow he has a great chance and can't be out of the money. He's one of the few in the race for which tomorrow is the target, rather than a stepping stone.
Cannington Brook sure to go well, loves the course, the going and in blinding form only going down to a well handicapped Carruthers latest
Posted on another thread I like triggerman but he misses a couple of stats. 4lb lower than his highest winning, this trip should suit better and has a nice pull with the two who finished in front of him.
I've had to go for Well Refreshed
could well be a 140+ plus horse really and off 129 here and 10 stone to carry
could well be a 140+ plus horse really and off 129 here and 10 stone to carry
well he will be 138 or higher next time then we shall see
how high can he go? 150 probably
how high can he go? 150 probably
jas....game purston won in late 60's and i think it was going quite a while before
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