Haydock Grand National Trial - Sat 16th Feb

Trends for last 10 runnings of Haydock Grand National Trial (http://tinyurl.com/b9eqnzm):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-0-2
7yo: 2-7-20
8yo: 2-6-33
9yo: 3-4-27
10yo: 1-2-27
11yo+: 2-4-21
12yo+: 0-1-12
Horses aged 7 to 9 have a combined record of 7-17-82
Horses aged 10 or older have a combined record of 3-7-60
All 3 winners aged 10+ finished 1st or 2nd in a handicap chase worth 15K+ last time.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-7 to 11-13: 2-4-18
Horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 2-5-35
Horses carrying 10-6 to 10-13: 3-8-44
Horses carrying 10-0 to 10-5: 3-6-38
Horses carrying 9-13 or less: 0-0-7
Not a huge amount to go on with the weights with the weights of the winners being fairly evenly spread out.
Top Weight: 13PFPP1321P2 (3-4-12) have gained 3 wins and 4 places since 2003.

Official Ratings
Horses rated 147 to 158: 2-5-24
Horses rated 135 to 146: 6-10-61
Horses rated 118 to 134: 2-9-57
The last 5 winners were all officially rated 138 to 149.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners won or placed last time out (exception was Silver By Nature winning it for 2nd year)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 144+ on previous start
10 of 10 winner achieved previous career high RPR at a left-handed track
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 7F+
10 of 10 winners had won 2 to 4 chases
10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 11 handicap chases
7 of 10 winners had won no more than one handicap chase
8 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or better chase (both exceptions had won a class 3 chase)
9 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 17K+ (exception twice 2nd in Welsh National)
9 of 10 winners contested a class 2 or better handicap chase over 3M+ on one or both of last 2 starts (exception won a grade 2 novice chase last time)
3 of 10 winners had previously won at Haydock (5 of other 7 were having first course start)

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Giles Cross): 21 (1-1-2)
Welsh National winner (Monbeg Dude): P51P3 (1-1-5)
Highest placed Welsh National finisher: P1P5318P23 (2-3-10)
Classic Chase winner (Rigadin De Beauchene): 6P4P(0-1-4)
Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase winner (Cannington Brook): 0 (0-0-1)
5 of 10 winners (last 3) ran in the Welsh Grand National, finishing 51272
2 of 10 winners ran in the Classic Chase, finishing 27
2 of 10 winners ran in the Cumberland Handicap Chase, finishing 61
8 of 10 winners had previously finished in first 2 in one of Welsh, Scottish, Summer or Scottish Borders Nationals (1 exception was a novice chaser and the other won the Grand Sefton on previous start)

Racing Tactics
10 of 10 winners led or raced prominently from fifth fence

Trainers
Lucinda Russell (2-0-3) has won 2 of the last 3 renewals with Silver By Nature.
Victor Dartnall (1-0-2) and Michael Scudamore (1-0-2) have also won this in past 6 years.
Sue Smith (0-2-6), Alan King (0-2-6) & Venetia Williams (0-2-10) have all saddled couple of placed finishers since 2003.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-1-12) last won this in 2001 but only 1 of his 12 runners in past 10 years have made the places.
None of the six Irish-trained runners (0-0-6) have made the frame.

Price
9 of 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 18/1
Favourites (1-3-12) have a poor record having gained just one win (last year) in the past 10 renewals, giving a level stakes loss of 6.00.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 7 to 9 (or finished in first 2 in h’cap chase worth 15K+ last time)
•    Top weight does well
•    Officially rated 138 to 149
•    Won or placed last time out
•    Posted an RPR of 144 or higher last time
•    Posted career high RPR at left-handed track
•    Contested a class 2 handicap chase over 3M+ on 1 or both of last 2 starts
•    Won over 2M 7F or further
•    Won 2 to 4 times over fences
•    Run in 11 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1)
•    Course winner (or having first run here)
•    Finished in first 2 in Scottish, Welsh, Summer or Scottish Borders National
•    Finished in first 5 in Welsh National this season
•    Won a class 2 or better chase worth 17K+
•    Tends to race prominently
•    Trained by Lucinda Russell
•    Priced between 7/1 and 18/1