Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 199 comments are related to the topic:
King George - Antepost thoughts
King George - Antepost thoughts
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 199
|
By:
I lean towards Long Run having backed Grands Crus ante post. He is the one with Kempton form in the book. Both last year and his winning run where he smashed Riverside Theatre to bits are very good bits of form. I run shy of backing horses campaigned all their careers over shorter but needing to improve for a step up in trip. It doesn't usually work and they really will need to stay 3 miles and improve to win a King George.
4-1 is good value in my opinion. |
|
By:
Actually shocked not many fancy kauto stone. Has such a similar profile to kauto didn't complete qm wins a grade 1 first time up bred to stay 3 miles won't mind it soft or good. Beat first lt with plenty in hand and form flanked well in hennesy with bobsworth now fav for gold cup . Massive price
|
|
By:
Barrym,
the Paddy Power was run on very soft ground and for his 1st race of the season i thought AF did really well to win that.He looks to me like he will stay 3m in time and i think/hope he will prove it on boxing day,but you are right to have doubts,he has still to prove it.Saying he was up and down on the spot is a bit harsh imo,i thought he saw it out pretty well,hes never gonna be a flashy type and always ends his races battling,whether it be a supreme, a nov chase with For Non Stop or a Paddy Power,thats him. If he were to win the KG it would be the same. |
|
By:
Yeh,i see the Kempton factor with Long Run,its a fair point of course.
But as i say he got Kauto at a good time and got beat by him when Kauto was past his best last year at Kempton. I honestly dont think hes top notch,otherwise surely he would have won the Gold Cup this year. Maybe with a different jockey he would jump better,and that would help him,i dont know,but they aint changing jockey,so thats that. Hes a poor price imo. |
|
By:
|
|
By:
Yes but last years race was rated around the 180 mark. That is a top notch mark Buddeliea.
A repeat of that would mean Sizing Europe needs to improve 10lb. How is that not top notch  |
|
By:
I dont think the rating is correct AG.
|
|
By:
dont think SE is 10lb inferior to Long Run either,in fact i know he aint!!
if its decent ground and he stays he will smash Long Run imo. |
|
By:
speak up Foyles
 |
|
By:
That`s fair enough.
But if you look at every horse that has finished behind Long Run at Kempton in the last two KG`s. They all point to around the 180 mark. That is every horse. Of course we can make excuses for beaten horses, but he has destroyed everything barring the best KG horse of all time. |
|
By:
|
|
By:
Long Run has beat one top class 3 miler in the King George imo,and that one was not anywhere near his best at the time.
Had Long Run been around a few years earlier Kauto would have caned him imo. Long Run to me is rated too high,nothing will sway me from that opinion. |
|
By:
The form of every horse behind still fits the mark to about 180 Bud. It`s not just that he has beaten these horses in the KG but he has destroyed them. Riverside Theatre, Captain Chris - spanked.
He would never live with a 190 Kauto in his prime. Are there any top class 3 milers running this year for him to beat? |
|
By:
kauto stone - I hope!
|
|
By:
I think Riverside Theatre is a superb each way bet at 8/1. Second in this two years ago, he then won the G1 Ascot Chase either side of his year off from injury and then won the Ryanair. I actually think he hated every inch of the Ryanair, I think he bounced from Ascot a month before and hated the undulations at Prestbury Park. If you watch it again he hardly travelled a yard that day, and only his utter class and heart got him up. I think that his subsequent non-performance at Aintree is understandable given the manner of his win at Cheltenham. But as a track I think Kempton is perfect for this animal.
I think he is a much better horse than the 2010 KG Riverside Theatre, expect him to be right up there and think only a fall stops him placing at best. I have been dying to back this horse for this race since he got back to fitness. I backed him for the Ryanair despite my reservations about the suitability of the course, but think he cant be kept out of the first three here if he stands up. |
|
By:
Well, AG, i look at Long Runs form and i personally do not see a 180 amongst it,but there yer go.
I wont back him,if he wins its cos conditions suit and the other fancied ones dont stay.Thats possible. But having watched this horse i cannot have him anywhere near 180. What mark did he run to in the Gold Cup behind TGB?? Yeh he may be better at Kempton,but a 180 horse would have won that race,he had no excuses. Thers no top class 3m horses that we know about,but i think there could well be after the race. All about choices,we will differ on here. |
|
By:
I am purely looking at the King George ratings Bud.
Every horse he has beaten equates to the mark the handicapper gave him for those 2 races at Kempton. The Gold Cup was obviously not the standard of his previous Gold Cup races or either of his King Georges. Yeh he may be better at Kempton,but a 180 horse would have won that race,he had no excuses. Not if he had lost his form Bud. They do lose their form, and if a horse starts to think about the game Cheltenham is the course were Long Run is likely to down tools. |
|
By:
AG,
Do YOU actually think hes a 180 horse mate? |
|
By:
low to mid 170's imo
|
|
By:
At Kempton yes 176 - 180.
I never thought he liked Cheltenham. So i was surprised he won the GC in the manner which he did. He must have been so well in himself and the race fell into his lap. It was actually no surprise that he downed tools last year. Every other race has been a prep for the King George or Gold Cup. His form at Kempton is consistently top class. Everywhere else it is not. I think i know why that is. |
|
By:
he won the Gold Cup cos Kauto Denman and IC were nowhere near their best,What a Friend nearly beat Kauto!!
hes beaten KS at Kempton when we all know Kauto was below par,and a few non stayers. He may beat a few non stayers again,but that wont make him a 180 horse,cos he aint. |
|
By:
Until his form at Kempton determines otherwise he is a 176 - 180 horse at Kempton.
As i have said not one horse that has finished behind Long Run in the KG contradicts this rating. |
|
By:
He ran to about 168 at Haydock. First time out, he has needed the run the last two seasons. How much will he come on? Also Kempton is is favoured track.
Did he have a hard race? |
|
By:
Ok mate,you carry on believing the ratings are accurate,especially those horses that are rated on form over less than 3m.
Long Run could beat a horse with the same rating by any distance as long as he stays and the other dont. |
|
By:
Well that just goes to show the difference between the true 3 milers and those stepping up in trip.
If Long Run stays better than the rest then how can you turn that into a negative. So i guess you are putting a line through Captain Chris and Riverside Theatre as non stayers? |
|
By:
His negative is his jumping not his staying power.
If he jumped better i would rate him higher. Riverside THeatre imo is not a top 3miler,he did not stay well enough last time in the KG and wont again imo. Long Run will beat him again i think. Captain Chris i aint sure about,hes unreliable.His best form is over a lot shorter than 3m,but something says to me that he may be capable if getting him on the right day. |
|
By:
Even taking out Denman and Kauto Star for those who claim that they weren't anywhere near their best (although i personally don't think they ran that much below their best on that track as Denman was always better than KS at Cheltenham and if you took out Long Run would people be talking about how they weren't the same horse etc) the other horses behind Long Run in his winning Gold Cup haven't done badly since: -
China Rock - Punch Gold Cup Curruthers - Hennessy Weird Al - Charlie Hall Neptune Collonges - Grand National Tidal Bay - Whitbred / second in Hennessy off 166 to current Gold Cup fav Midnight Chase - Cotswold Chase and general Cheltenham specialist It was a quality Gold Cup run in a very fast time although obviously the ground and savage pace assisted greatly. It could be argued that Kauto Star would have finished where he did in the 2011 Gold Cup in any previous Gold Cup should he have been ridden the same way given how early he took it up and how fast the relentless pace was. Personally i never thought he truly stayed a properly run Gold Cup and only won it twice through his sheer class in slowly run races at critical points. So Long Run's Gold Cup win was clearly a 180+ performance for me and his two runs in the King George have also clearly been 180+ performances for me whatever way i look at it i agree with AG. Away from Kempton and his winning Gold Cup i agree he hasn't shown the same form and would go with the 170ish rating but his Cup finals have always been the King George and Gold Cup so in reality he has only disappointed once which was in last seasons Gold Cup where he jumped much better than the year before but the engine just wasn't quite the same. Will it be on boxing day, well given he has had a long time to recover from his brutal Gold Cup win, at 4/1 it is a price worth finding out for me (assuming Sir Des Champs doesn't turn up). |
|
By:
Just out of interest budd, where would you have LR's rating?
|
|
By:
I think this race is between 3 horses.
Long Run - we know all about him Sir Des Champs - I think he will win if he runs but could run in Ireland instead) Grands Crus - The well being of the horse is a massive ? after his shocking performance in the PP but his feltham win and wind op would make him interesting should he run) If SDC and GC don't run then there's only one bet for me |
|
By:
Hard to say Roo,i aint an expert on ratings,but i kinow in many races hes been nowhere near 180,and those he was rated around that mark i have question marks about.
Reckon probably low 170's would be his average rating based on what ive seen. Why are we making excuses for the last Gold Cup,i did not see any,i think thats how good he is. The close proximity of WAF to Kauto and Denman tells me all i need to know about the Gold Cup he won. We have to form an opinion on horses at some time,thats mine on Long Run,if im wrong as some suggest then fine,so be it. The end of the day this race hinges on horses that may stay or may not stay.If any of AF,SE,CC and FR stay,i would expect them to beat Long Run,to me they are better jumpers,and more classy and will prove it,as they have to of course. If none of them stay well enough,then Long Run could well win the race. |
|
By:
The end of the day this race hinges on horses that may stay or may not stay.If any of AF,SE,CC and FR stay
And if they are beaten 10L by Long Run you will slag off the form by saying he beat a bunch of non stayers. |
|
By:
Well its true mate,we have Long Run the proven stayer against up and coming horses with good form over less.Plus Sizing Europe who has proven class over less.
And he wont be beating the likes of them 10l if they stay well. I wont slag him off, he will be a worthy winner as he was last time he won the race,but i may put it it into perspective as re ratings. |
|
By:
Fair enough Bud.
Out of interest, How do you think Long Run will fair against the Giant Bolster and would you have backed Synchronised to beat Long Run in the King George?? |
|
By:
yeh ok ,i see yer point.
I think Long Run would probably beat TGB in the KG,but it would depend on the odds re Synchronised. For instance TGB is a lot bigger odds for the Gold Cup than Long Run,so if Synch had been a lot bigger price in the KG i would have been tempted. |
|
By:
Truth of the matter is that a horse needs to in the form of his entire life to win the Gold Cup.
Synchronised showed that he was by storming home in the Lexus before winning the Gold Cup. I am sure though that Long Run downed tools at Cheltenham. He was not firing. If you didn`t know him. you would say he was a non stayer, and that`s not the case. He just wasn`t at the top of his game. I think we have been too spoilt in thinking retaining the GC is straight forward for a class horse but it`s not. The KG is a much more straight forward race as history suggests by the amount of multiple winners or horses who consistently run well. |
|
By:
For what it's worth, i agree with almost everything BUDD has said about LONG RUN. I would like to just put one opinion into the fire in that i am of the belief that he has come along at the wrong time in that he could have become a next top class horse but 2 hard seasons i.e winning the KG then GC in that year then coming and having 2 hard races against a revived Kauto Star and then that gold cup has done him for his career. In other words, he started in top class races too early. If they waited one year i think things may well have been different!
As for the race, wasnt there an excuse for Riverside Theatre the year he was beat 10+lengths? I am sure there was some kind of injury that come out of that race! I also like the look of Alf and CC for reasons already stated on this thread and i have spent the last half an hour reading through it lol. For what it's worth, i think Bob's Worth could be the next Best Mate! Though fleminstar may well have something to say about that  |
|
By:
Looks like sizing is a non starter
|
|
By:
Good news for all who have already had a bet. Was quite surprised Segal went with a doubtful starter. More worrying news from Ireland is Mullins saying SDC is 50-50 to come over.Despite distance & first run excuse I don't think he is in a hurry to take on Flemenstar again & may view Kempton as easier option. Hopefully not as I think it would win.
|
|
By:
Al Ferof out.Ruby should ride Kauto Stone now.
|
|
By:
 |