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Hennessy Cognac (we need it) Gold Cup
Hennessy Cognac (we need it) Gold Cup
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yeh,TB has a fair bit of weight,and probably a tad too much,but the way things are going with the weather,the race is going to be tailor made for him.Its got gruelling written all over it,and can see him hunting around and getting into the race as others cry enough.
Its not a classy Hennessey,and imo will be won by a horse that handles conditions well,Tidal Bay will do just that. |
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Newbury soft,heavy in places,going stick 5.5
 more rain to come too |
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how many more threads about the same thing Harry
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Does anyone know the maximum field size?
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think its around 25
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Joci club...
have you done the trends on this race yet?? come up with much?? |
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No, will be on it this week.
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Michel Le Bon a big doubt for Saturday.
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Why?
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Apparently tough race at Wincanton and may wait for Welsh National
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One nation; Regarding the max field size, going through the current decs I would imagine that there wouldn't be that big a field. Be surprised if more than 14 went to post.
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Agree - lets see what happens at latest declaration stage today but I think this is going to really cut up. Jumped on Tidal Bay at 14s over the weekend and with the likely ground, and doubts at MLB, this has got to be the value. Most interesting for me were the quotes from Nicholls after the Sandown race when they felt they had worked out how to ride / get the best out of him. He's now 2 from 2 on these tactics.
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In retrospect I can see where the TB fans are coming from though still find it hard to see him winning unless the field really cuts up. However having Ruby will be a plus as well. If he was still 14/16-1 might have had an e/w saver but the price has gone so shall leave it
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Bobs Worth The Package Hold On Julio Tidal Bay Frisco Depot Saint Are First Lieutenant Magnanimity Teaforthree Duke Of Lucca Roberto Goldback Diamond Harry Alfie Spinner Lion Na Bearnai Harry The Viking Fruity Orooney Carruthers Planet Of Sound Ikorodu Road Junior Soll Tatenen Vino Griego
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Any movement on the acceptors for this, due at mid day I believe.
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bazzar they are the decs above
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If you had indicated that, then I would not have posted,
according to Racing Post news there are only 22 acceptors, you show 23, however thanks for the info. |
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devasting blow
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NO. HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
1 2541-1 Tidal Bay28 11 11-12 Paul Nicholls52 R Walsh 166 146 172 2 2887-1 Roberto Goldback28 10 11-8 Nicky Henderson50 162 129 168 3 1321- Bobs Worth262 7 11-6 Nicky Henderson50 160 163 174 4 223-42 First Lieutenant28 7 11-5 M F Morris60 159 149 174 5 82FP- Junior224 9 11-1 David Pipe47 155 145 174 6 230-5 Planet Of Sound28 10 10-12 Philip Hobbs40 152 157 172 7 110-3 Hold On Julio42 9 10-8 Alan King71 148 150 174 8 18511- Lion Na Bearnai236 10 10-8 Thomas Gibney 148 94 173 9 P09-L0 Carruthers14 9 10-7 Mark Bradstock67 147 132 136 10 715U- Tatenen231 8 10-7 Richard Rowe 147 157 171 11 55/4-1 The Package21 9 10-7 David Pipe47 147 149 171 12 1P11-8 Teaforthree14 8 10-6 Rebecca Curtis20 146 165 175 13 1325-0 Fruity O´Rooney42 9 10-5 Gary Moore57 145 157 174 14 24U01- Saint Are231 6 10-5 Tim Vaughan67 145 144 171 15 2511-2 Duke Of Lucca28 7 10-4 Philip Hobbs40 144 144 170 16 45PP-P Diamond Harry21 9 10-3 Nick Williams33 143 166 179 17 PP-522 Magnanimity16 8 10-3 D T Hughes69 143 143 177 18 112P-P Harry The Viking14 7 10-2 Paul Nicholls52 Daryl Jacob 142 158 175 19 211P-4 Ikorodu Road30 9 10-1 Matt Sheppard 141 154 170 20 21U-4F Frisco Depot28 8 10-1 Charlie Longsdon64 Mr S Waley-Cohen5 141 149 176 21 1/21B- Soll262 7 9-13 Jo Hughes 139 144 170 22 1235-3 Alfie Spinner28 7 9-12 Nick Williams33 138 153 173 |
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10 out of 10 winners had won a race at class 2 or higher over fences.
9 out of 10 winners had run in 3 or fewer handicap chases. 9 out of 10 winners had won over 3m1f+. 9 out of 10 winners had finished in the first two on their last completed start. 8 out of 10 winners had won a graded/listed chase. 8 out of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their chase starts. 7 out of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times over fences. 7 out of 10 winners were second season chasers. 7 out of 10 winners were Irish bred with two being British and one French. Running Style 9 of the last 10 winners, including the last 7, raced with the leaders throughout. Trainers Paul Nicholls has had 3 winners and 6 placed horses in the past 8 years from 22 runners. Price 7 of the last 8 winners were sent off at 10/1 or shorter. 6 of the last 8 winners have been in the first 3 in the betting. Conclusion Based on the last 10 years the following trends are worth bearing in mind: A horse aged 6 or 7 A horse with an official rating between 150 and 158 A horse carrying 11-0+ but not necessarily relevant this year A horse that had won a race at class 2 or higher over fences at 3m1f+ A horse that had run 3 to 6 times over fences, winning at least half A horse that had run in 3 or fewer handicap chases A horse that had finished in the first two last time out A horse that was bred in Ireland A horse that races prominently and is 10/1 or shorter |
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Hard lines Harry ! Soll is beginning to tempt me, although he doesn't look like he does much in a hurry, he does jump very well and that will be essential. Does anyone know who the pilot might be ?
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so after some sub standard races at the paddy power we now have the weakest looking hennesy in years,seem to me the nh game is getting brilliant headlines for average racing and the continual cheltenham countdown
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Tidal Bay for me. Class act
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CLASS act at crufts,got to laugh at the previous post saying pumpkin gave an interview saying they,d worked him out ,hope tidal never heard it ,
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yep,form since changing yards is much improved,and he can be backed with much more confidence now.
And in chases at 3m plus on soft ground has to be taken very seriously imo |
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1st time poster
26 Nov 12 19:05 Joined: 25 Dec 05 | Topic/replies: 10,888 | Blogger: 1st time poster's blog CLASS act at crufts,got to laugh at the previous post saying pumpkin gave an interview saying they,d worked him out ,hope tidal never heard it ,  I think softer it gets he has a great chance |
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Yes was just interested in the maximum field.
Looks odds against to even make it a 4 place affair come race day! |
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Anyone know the story behind Soll leaving the Mullins yard?
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I dunno Moose, but the owner/breeder had it with John Quinn b4 Mullins so he has previous. One thing's 4 sure, if Mullins still had it he would be alot shorter !
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No one mentioned the winner yet Planet Of Sound.
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Thanks Liam
Can someone send post me a reminder Saturday morning that Diamond Harry has shown no form for a while now and even though he is 'thrown in' should not be backed |
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Trends Analysis
I used the following trends (put up here earlier today) to try and narrow the field down: 10 out of 10 winners had won a race at class 2 or higher over fences. 9 out of 10 winners had run in 5 or fewer handicap chases. 9 out of 10 winners had won over 3m1f+. 9 out of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 on their last completed start. 7 out of 10 winners had won a graded chase. 9 out of last 10 winners were aged 6-8 7 out of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their chase starts. 7 out of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times over fences. 5 of last 10 winners had won a chase at Newbury over 2.5m+ 6 out of 10 winners were second season chasers. 8 of the last 9 winners were sent off at 10/1 or shorter. 7 of the last 9 winners have been in the first 4 in the betting. 6 of the last 10 winners carried 11'00+ 6 of the last 10 winners had an OR 146-159 Each of the 22 horses were given points for satisfying each trend which was weighted by 'importance' e.g. a 10 out of 10 trend gained 1.0 points whereas a 6 out of 10 trens gained 0.6 points. The maximum available score was 10.57. The scores were as follows: Bobs Worth 94% Hold On Julio 69% Tidal Bay 63% First Lieutenant 59% Frisco Depot 55% Duke Of Lucca 49% Saint Are 49% Teaforthree 46% Harry The Viking 45% Magnanimity 42% The Package 41% Lion Na Bearnai 39% Planet Of Sound 39% Roberto Goldback 39% Tatenen 39% Junior 38% Diamond Harry 38% Soll 37% Carruthers 35% Alfie Spinner 31% Ikorodu Road 23% Fruity O´Rooney 9% |
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Planet Of Sound has a great chance Brookies. 6lb lower than last year, v.good course form. The last 2f would be my worry as i don't think he really sees out an extended 3m, better ground would help.
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That's in relation to the trends and my pick btw
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The trends suggest Wayne Rooney would have a better chance!
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Well if you are going to bust a trend....
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The trip and ground will be great for Tidal Bay, he stays forever. My worry is the weight on the ground, if he did win off top weight id be cheering him all the way to the line, as iv spent most of his years defending him. Ruby just needs to keep him entertained for 3 miles. especially when going past the stables lol :)
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Bobs Worth the standout candidate if running.
I agree that Planet of Sound must be in with a decent chance off that mark but the one that really takes my eye is Teaforthree. Won't mind the ground one bit and will certainly not be found wanting for stamina. Still unexposed in this company and rarely out of the frame. Superb e/w value at 20/1. |
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1st time poster 26 Nov 12 19:05
CLASS act at crufts,got to laugh at the previous post saying pumpkin gave an interview saying they,d worked him out ,hope tidal never heard it , Clueless |