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2,000 Guineas (2013)
2,000 Guineas (2013)
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jair1970
Hello. Nice to see you are still lurking. I have no idea yet on the Oaks and Derby. Rule 1: wait until the week of the race to bet. Rule 2: unbeaten horses will be beaten. Flops: Alhaarth, Tenby, Hector Protector, One Cool Cat, Hawk Wing, St Nicholas Abbey. |
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Certainly, any horse is capable of flopping from 2 to 3, although I wouldn't call Hawk Wing's Guineas performance a flop. I don't see that inability to mature is necessarily the issue, though, as Hawk Wing and SNA put up good improved performances later in their careers.
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Enjoyed your pedigree analysis Kincsem, good stuff.
Tying in with another thread that I loyally update each year, the foaling date one (I know it's tenuous at best but bear with me here) and Dawn Approach is a comparatively young horse and his foaling date is very late (23rd April) especially for one that showed early form. That suggests that if he was able to do what he did early on last year, he could well be an exceptionally talented sort. Whether he can train on is a moot point but he's no 'old' January 3yo that was bigger and stronger earlier through age... |
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I am intrigued by your assessment of DA figgis. You commented on another thread that you have a couple of DA's performances 5lbs ahead of Toronado in the Craven.
To my mind DA's best performance was in the Coventry and his subsequent performances did not prove progression as they were both weak races. So are you saying that the DA that turned up that day could give weight and a beating to the Toronado that turned up at the Craven? |
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Roobuck, DA's Coventry performance was good but I have him improving 2lbs on that in the National Stakes then replicating the improved form in the Dewhurst. Yes, in my opinion, those 2 runs were 5lbs better than Toronado's Craven showing, which looked better than it actually was because he had his own way in front and the rest ran below their very best.
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So please explain much closer finishing of Letir Mor in Dewhust? You saying that fellow improved tons in the interim?
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I don't use the official pounds per length scale, which is just plain wrong and greatly overestimates the effect of weight, imo, so in that particular race I have DA giving him close to a 9lbs beating. It was an improved run from Leitir Mor but not a huge leap and nothing out of the ordinary, he'd run to a decent level on his first few starts then lost his way a bit. It's not unusual for horses to run out of their skin in the Dewhurst, usually the most competitive 2yo race in the calendar where young horses are pushed to their very limits at a strong pace. Many of them never go on to run to the same level, old form books are littered with such runners.
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Before the Guineas is run, it is sometimes worth looking at the Derby market as some punters can't help but believe the hype and believe a horse is going to do a Guineas/Derby double. In the last two days I have place layed Toronado for the Derby at 15/8 - 2.90. Not for much, £60, but for this is an appaling price. Yes, on breeding he looks a Derby candidate, but IF he wins the Guineas, there is a good chance he will wait for the St.Jamess.Palace stakes at Royal Ascot and even if he heads straight to the Derby there after, the line-up for that race is still massively unclear yet it is stocked full of horses from all the top stables that are bred for the job. He could still finished unplaced against some of those. It's a mental price and one i'm happy to keep chipping away at. Yesterday on Twitter, Hughesy commented that Ninjango, who was an impressive win of a listed race over 6f yesterday at Ascot, was leading Toronado at home. This probably says how much speed Toronado has. He could be best at 8-10f.
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Cristoforo Columbo declared with Cheekpieces
 Leitir Mor in too |
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Lines of Battle the only 1 take out - 13 declared
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Not surprised at Letor Mor in. Why else run over 5f other than to prepare to run as a pacemaker?
Agree re Toronado. Look at how the likes of Dundonnell who is seen as a potential sprinter were struggling a full 3 furlongs out in the Craven shows to me that Toronado sure ain't slow. |
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The way the draw has panned out I can see Toranado making for the stand rail and being hard to catch with DA drawn wide and having to maybe come over
Do we know if stalls will be on stand side yet or are they always in the centre these days |
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Middle
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that the stalls for the 2,000 Guineas will be placed in the middle of the track going G to F gd in plc
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I'd personally be surprised if they go any other way than right down the middle. Toronado drawn next door to the likely pacemaker in Leitir Mor
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Going stick now 8.7, even with watering to maintain i reckon it will be around 9(which is fast) if weather remains warm with a wind
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Looking forward to the Classic wkend action from Newkt.
2 cracking races in-store (2000 & 1000 gns). Expect the 1st 2 in the market of the 2000gns to fight out the finish, fancy Dawn Approach to get the better of Toronado in the run to the line, with 1 of the AOB colts in 3rd. |
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Id be worried about DA on fast ground, he did hang left at Ascot and didnt look entirely suited by the dip on easier ground in the Dewhurst
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Did the trainer not take him out of a race last year because he thought the ground was on the soft side? Personally I don't see g/f ground being any probs to this horse, or the track.
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I suppose if you are on AP at a price its different, he's no form on fast ground, like a few of these, i wouldnt be rushing for the 11-8. imo he'd be a good thing on soft ground.
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He won the National Stakes on heavy, no worry on soft ground. I think his best performance last season was in the Coventry on arguably the best ground he has raced on.
Fast ground will ask a very different question however. |
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The going on the morning of the Coventry was GS. By race time it was Good. Remember, New Approach got done twice in his Guineas on GF & F. I reckon they may go off 7/4 JF's.
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It was described as good ground for Henrythenavigator's Guineas, sint, the times were in keeping with the description, even allowing for the headwind. It was described as firm for the Irish version, however, the times suggest it was nothing like proper fast ground, but you never know if they've mucked around with the rails at the Curragh so maybe it was. I do remember Bolger moaning about it after the event, personally I thought it was just a case of Henrythenavigator improving past NA over the trip at that stage.
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Nice comments sintonian on place-laying Toronado in the Derby place market. Place laying in that market is an earner if you can place-lay five or six 8/10f horses or soft ground horses. They can't all be in the first three.
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Id say that the stick will be over 9 come around 3-00 sat, they are putting 6mm down tomorrow but id say that will be just enough to get it to good to firm(good) and if its dry sat night it will be really fast for the sunday
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Dawn Approach has beaten nothing and is the most over hyped horse in years. The only decent horse he has defeated is Olympic Glory who had had virtually no experience bar trotting up in a weak maiden at Goodwood before he ran at Ascot. Just like Teofilo, Bolger has hyped this horse for the Godolphin money. He said Teofilo was a Triple Crown prospect. That was rubbish. Just Lay the hype!
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teofilo got injured so , he could have been a triple crown prospect
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Fast ground for O'Brien's 3 is gonna draw at least one of them closer to the favourite.
I've been desperately trying to put a positive spin of Heffernan's booking on Mars & in truth he's had a fair old record when he's been on horses with chances, so it's not entirely forlorn. I do suspect they are using this as a Derby prep like the did the ill-fated Horatio Nelson, meanwhile depending on the result i'd imagine Cristoforo Columbo & George Vancouver will be off to The Irish 2000. Until they ran him in the Middle Park CC looked like their Guineas horse & had rotten luck with soft ground abound all year They've ballsed up a few Guineas in their time but I think these 3 horses are the best 'team' they've sent in some while, and it's interesting that they've let the stable boys ride them as in the past they've always booked top jocks for their lesser lights. Can they win it? Dunno, but I fancy at least one of them will beat Toronado. :) |
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Intrigued that Henry has decided to send a maiden for this - completely irrational but v small e/w and place
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Intriguing indeed Roo. Newmarket man in Weekender actually fancies him more than Moohajim. Nothing wrong with a little ew at 66-1.
I am with Jair on this race. The drying ground HAS to bring at least the two "Henry" horses into it. I backed GV ages ago in the hope that we would get this ground and so was quite optimistic until jockey bookings! I still think he will run his race. He has 3 lengths to make up on the fav but that was on good to soft and we know he is a COMPLETELY different horse on fast ground. I am not saying he'll beat him but i DO think, as long as he is fit, he has to get closer and that might put him in the frame. For me he has less question marks than CC who has never raced beyond 6f. JOB clearly would not agree and I suppose he know just a LITTLE bit more than me! I notice DA is drifting like a barge and I wouldn't even be surprised if he goes off second fav on the day. I was watching Toronado's Craven again last night and you can't help but be impressed by the way he puts his head down and really stretches away. You can say what you want about the opposition that day but they were not mugs and he put them away very impressively. A very fast and fluent action and he'll love the ground. Will DA? I haven't backed him and probably won't now either at the prices but I think he is the most likely winner. |
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Richard Hughes is very open and upfront with his opinions in the press. Punters up and down the country will read them and back Toronado. Deffo chance he could go off Fav.
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Could be another Jacqueline Quest , Roo.
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Dawn Approach has beaten nothing and is the most over hyped horse in years.
I think you overstate your case somewhat! He is unbeaten in 6 races and has accounted for Olympic Glory, Christophoro Columbo and George Vancouver, winning at 5,6 and 7 furlongs with the strong likelihood at improving over further. I am not sure he should be quite as short as 7/4 but he is top rated by RPR and Timeform. |
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7/4 looks very fair to me, even considering we haven't seen him this season. I don't see the ground being any obstacle whatsoever and if he's beaten I won't be excusing him on that score. I'm surprised Timeform only have him 2lbs ahead of Tornado, cryoftruth, how do you see it?
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*Toronado
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2/1 DA on here, 3.15 for Toronado.
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Richard Hannon has won the Qipco 2000 Guineas with Mon Fils, Don't Forget Me and Tirol, and is double-handed with Toronado and Van Der Neer on Saturday.
Toronado is undoubtedly the first string following his breathtaking performance in the Craven Stakes and connections are confident of upsetting unbeaten favourite Dawn Approach. Assistant trainer Richard Hannon jnr said: "Toronado did his last proper piece of work last Sunday and goes to Newmarket in the form of his life." He continued: "We always felt that he was more one for the Derby than the Guineas, but this spring he has been showing much more speed in the mornings than he did last year, so, while Dawn Approach is obviously a very good horse, we feel we have a solid chance of beating him. "You had to be impressed with Toronado's dress rehearsal in the Craven as he did it the hard way, and it takes a good horse to win like that from the front, repeatedly quickening." Racing Post Trophy runner-up Van Der Neer is an interesting outsider following a stylish comeback on the all-weather at Lingfield. "Van Der Neer would not have the speed of Toronado and may eventually prove a 10-furlong horse, but his form is solid. He was second to Kingsbarns in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster, where he hated the soft ground, and his preparation this spring could not have gone better," said Hannon jnr. "Lingfield would not have been his track, but he won his trial there in spectacular fashion considering that he was only 80% straight, and he did not take the home turn well and was still last straightening up. Like Toronado, Van Der Neer is very laid back and uncomplicated, and I can easily see him finishing in the four." Richard Hughes will be partnering Toronado and believes he compares favourably with former Hannon stable star Canford Cliffs, who was third in the Guineas before going on to claim five consecutive Group One prizes. Hughes told www.richardhannonracing.co.uk:: "I have been so impressed with Toronado this season and put him right up there with Canford Cliffs - and maybe even in front. Dawn Approach is a very good horse, but he invariably hits a flat spot and I think we will win." |
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If it was Hannon senior being bullish, I would be more inclined to listen. But the younger one ?, think zoe bird, or the plural of our featered friends, even.........junior thinks all his will win, any word from the master of Coolcullen?.......or listen lads........
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Just had a look at the prices on Oddschecker for this and Laddies are a disgrace - shortest price on virtually everything
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Agree that a Cecil outsider brings memories of JQ...
Anyone with longer memory than me know if he ever sends no-hopers? [I missed his golden age] Or indeed anything about the owners? |