Horse Antepost
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5/1 Bated Breath
6/1 Ortensia
8/1 Sole Power
8/1 Pearl Secret
10/1 Mayson
14/1 Hoof It
20/1 Ceiling Kitty
6/1 Ortensia
8/1 Sole Power
8/1 Pearl Secret
10/1 Mayson
14/1 Hoof It
20/1 Ceiling Kitty
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The daughter of Red Clubs has won her last three races, including the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot last-time-out.
Profiles Ceiling Kitty Brown Panther Tom Dascombe She faces a very different test at the Knavesmire and the trainer told Racing UK: "Shes won at York over five furlongs, she travels brilliantly and she's got the speed to lay up with them. It's just whether she then has the speed to quicken past them. "I'd rather do that (go to the Nunthorpe) than run with a penalty against other two-year-olds that are improving. She's improving herself but I'm not sure she's going to improve as much as some other two-year-olds. "Juveniles have good record int he Nunthorpe and if it's fast ground and she gets well drawn she'll be there at the furlong marker." Another of the Dascombe stable stars, Brown Panther, is unlikely to head to the Welcome To Yorkshire Ebor Festival. "The plan at the moment is to run him in the Geoffrey Freer at Newbury next week then probably the Irish St Leger but it's not definite. We're still talking about it," the trainer added. |
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If it is decent ground this has Ortensia's name all over it imo
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I agree. Though not sure the ground is so much of a worry to her as it is to Bated Breath. In the July Cup, when the going was Heavy, the mare still clocked the fastest furlong during the race and looked like challenging strongly at the 5f mark. I think it was a combo of Heavy ground and 6f that got her beat. If it came up GS at York it would not put me off, personally. BB struggles to quicken when there is cut in the going usually.
I'd love it if she won. I subbed her into my TTF list, only person to do so!  |
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PAUL MESSARA is hoping he can bag another notable prize with his star mare Ortensia before returning to Australia.
RELATED LINKS Nunthorpe card Nunthorpe betting Free bets The seven-year-old is challenging for favouritism for the Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes at York next Friday when she will be trying to nab a third Group 1 win as well as a chunk of the £250,000 prize fund. The early part of Ortensia's UK visit did not go to plan with the wet conditions hindering her chance in both the King's Stand Stakes and the Darley July Cup. However, her gutsy fourth at Newmarket gave hope to connections that she was on the way back and she rewarded their faith with a win in the King George Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. She showed an impressive turn of foot that day to come from nearly last to first, beating Spirit Quartz in a very good time. Messara said: "She's in great form. She came through her last race really well and we were happy with her work this morning. "Her conditions came right at Goodwood and she showed how good she is. The warmer weather has really helped her and I'm looking forward to running her at York." The Nunthorpe has been the aim for David Barron's progressive sprinter Pearl Secret for some time and the son of Compton Place goes into the race with his unbeaten record standing at four. He has won over course and distance twice and was last seen winning a Listed race at Sandown in decent style. Barron said: "I am very happy with Pearl Secret and he worked very well this morning. Ideally I'd like him to have more experience coming into a race like this as it is a big step up. "However, he is a very good horse and he has won at York twice before. He needs a fast pace but I can't see that not happening in the Coolmore Nunthorpe. "He was a little nervous in his younger days and we were keen to avoid the buzz of Ascot for a bit longer, deciding that York was a better time to step him up." Kevin Ryan could have three runners in the race. He said: "Tiddliwinks seems to love York and always saves his ‘A game' for there. He likes good ground and has had a break since his last run. "We were a little disappointed with Masamah's run in the race last year but he is a very good horse. We were delighted with his run at Goodwood last time. It was a better race than when he won last year and that performance was right up there with his best. "We are hoping that a return to York will help Bogart reproduce his best form." Godolphin could run Soul who finished best of the British-trained runners when third behind Black Caviar in the Golden Jubilee Stakes before easily winning the Hackwood Stakes at Newbury. Simon Crisford, racing manager to Godolphin, said: "If the ground came up soft I could see him running a huge race. If the ground was quick he may not be fast enough for five at York as his main targets are over six." |
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Hoping for some decent ground to get behind Sole Power again. Think the Barron horse looks very short.
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Oh dear. We are in danger of agreeing.
Ostensia,s Godwood run looks very strong form. If she repeats this she will go very close. In my view she should be quite a bit shorter, about 3/1. I know he shouldn't really win, but I cannot resist a small bet on Hamish as well. Finally, I believe that the wfa scale for 2yo's is about 7lbs wrong. Ceiling K. Only has to be rated about 114 to have a great shout, as she gets fililíes allowance as well. WHen the so calles Pocket Rocket, Lyric Fantasy son, she was only rated 114 by Timeform. She is a very fair price at 20. |
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Bated Breath and Sole Power have both been the most consistent UK performers in this sort of event over the past 12 months and i feel there is little between them over 5f, but if you watch Ortensia`s effort in Dubai in a strongly run 5f when she gave first run and probably 6-8 length head start to Sole Power and won going away you would have to say as long as the ground is good or better you would fancy her to beat them. Pearl Secret is priced up on potential imo, and if i was going to pick one at a price it would be Monsieur joe who will be suited by the guaranteed fast pace and has improved greatly this year but has gone a little under the radar. Also interesting is Powerful wind still in there, caught my eye a while back in a race at York and is 3/3 over 5f on g/f. This is probably a step to far but the horse is only rated 87 and you would think there might be handicaps it could be aimed at rather than a G1. Reminds me of Sole Power a few years back.
Im stunned there is still 6/1 available on Ortensia given that everyone seems to agree its the most likely winner |
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Just over a week to go now so have taken some of the 6/1 Oretensia. Flat tracks she loves. She was held up off the pace at Goodwood last time out but that was only because she had never been asked to run down hill before, the trainer didn't want William to force her to do it. On a flatter track she can go with the pace.
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30 runners still in.
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View of some of the runners
Bated Breath - follower who either lugs in behind or stops in front. Should get ideal conditions . Sole power - appears in the form of his life this year ,running a series of strong efforts.Closely matched with BB but held by Ortensia. Ortensia- Probably has a class edge on these. Beat Sole power fairly comfortably at Meydan and conditions are likely to be the same here. Got stuck in the ground on his 1st 2 UK starts but put up a very impressive mid race move at Goodwood. Pearl Secret - has potential but not for me. Mayson - needs plenty of cut.Little chance here. Hoof it - been running like he has a back problem Dandy Boy - trip looks too short but difficult to totally discount as has plenty of ability. Ceiling Kity - receiving plenty of weight and not without a chance. Nocturnal affair - Put up some strong efforts in Meydan against similar horses, has place chances if in that sort of form. Masmah -has clocked the 3rd quickest time ever over 5f @ york. May not be in the same form as last year though. Ortensia has the beating of these on previous form and looks likely to get conditions to suit. Buick riding her plus receiving 3lb off some of the others are additional positives. Off a level playing field with the race run to suit her true price could be as low as 6/4. But she's a sprinter who needs a lead , so is to some extend at the mercy of were the pacesetters are. York can also have strips of ground biases and she's a horse who needs plenty of space and a big field could line up. Also they could overwater. Taking these into account estimated true price 9/4 and backed at present best price 6/1. |
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all things being fair and above board ie no watering, no problems in running, not 20+ runners or whatever....Ortensia will take a fair bit of stopping.
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I think Pearl Secret is a shcoking price tbh. He is almost co-fav at 5/1. Instead of laying him i'll just stick with the bet on the Aussie mare.
BB is the one to beat. He is class and most consistent but he has not nailed a G1 yet and there might be a scenario where he idles in-front like Haydock and he gets nailed on the line, hopefully by Ortensia! The last horse to win the G2 at Goodwood and then the Nunthorpe was none other than LochSong! The 2yo Ceiling Kitty might be worth a saver with all the allowances? |
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Lochsong
 , shocking aftertiming I know but I backed her that day at 10/1, I was amazed that she stayed that price.I used to love this race but I've found it a disappointment in recent years, like most of the top sprints actually. |
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Sole Power @ 7/1 for me - should have beaten Bated Breath at Haydock (bad ride) and has already shown a liking for the new Kanvesmire. Looks an e/w bet to nothing.
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Any idea when the antepost market will be closed for this?
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Don't know for sure but I would imagine 9-10 tomorrow morning before final decs
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Thanks. Would prefer to green up (on Ortensia, thanks for the heads up on the 6/1 earlier) on the antepost market, rather than mess about with other bets on the new market.
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Ceiling Kitty balloted out. Shame for her connections as she would have had a chance with all the allowances.
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No sign of the new market yet
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pssing down big time...
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May be time to go in again on Ortensia - if it continues has to be against Sole Power and Bated Breath who want it the quicker the better
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I think it will inconvenience her less than the other two for sure. I think it will be GS at worst by tomorrow though. Has now changed to Good.
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You think she might get backed tomorrow then? Was contemplating laying it back when I saw the rain.
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Robert Cowell Racing
It's with regret that Kingsgate Native is now a non runner for the Nunthorpe - this evening's blood test was unsatisfactory. Great shame. |
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platini if you read Messara's comments and take them at face value then laying off would be sensible if you are that way inclined. Though I would take them with a pinch of salt ( equivalent of heavy in Oz ) it has been enough to make me think twice about going in again.
The time of the last race ( only slightly slower than standard ) would indicate that the going description is on the money and if using standard times it would indicate very similar to the ground Ortensia ran on at Goodwood. Ortensia may prefer faster going but imo not as much as BB and SP. |
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I've layed 2/3 of my original bet (at 7.0) back at avg. odds of 6.4. Still hopeful of a big run.
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All I know is she ran very respectably over 6f on Heavy in the July Cup to finish 4th. During that race she still clocked the quickest furlong. All 3 horses that finished in-front of her had won on Soft.
5f on GS tomorrow is a world away from what she raced on a Newmarket. I personally would not lay any off but of course we all make our own decisions! Gl. |
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anyone else feel the draw becomes a factor given the rainfall? ive long felt that with cut in the ground the stands rail has a significant bias at York
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York G/s is a very strange surface and the ground can shift like crazy causing traction problems for horses.
Having est Ortensia's true price to be 9/4 on fast ground ,if it comes up G/s it becomes very difficult to guage what her true price is ,it could range from 4/1 if she get's away with it ,all the way out 20/1 if she cann't handle the shift. For me she bounces off fast ground and have no option but to dump half the bet and monitor the ground. |
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Laid off my Sole Power bet due to the ground.
Really not sure who I fancy now - Spirit Quartz @ 30 just for a bit of involvement. |
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Apparently there is more rain today.
God knows now. |
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Which jockey will be last early in the race, could someone offer prices?
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Added Spirit Quartz small e/w @25s - consistent, won't mind the ground and seems best over a fast 5F
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Good heavens....Messara says it would be called Heavy ground back in Oz.
I'm totally confused now...so what on earth would they call the July Cup going then? Swa,py to Bogpit??? no point me having a bet this morning...might as well wait for racetime and check my stopwatch. |
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Agree Elg. Just read that on Twitter, and it's hard to know what to make of it. Current going is Soft side of Good. This is significantly better than Heavy at Newmarket!
My money is on, will leave it that way and take the loss or win in equal measure. |
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As I understand it there has been no further rain since before the last yesterday - is that right?
If that is the case then the time of the last would indicate genuine good going, not even soft side of good - have I misread that? |
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All eyes will be on the first race Roo. Best way to judge now.
York have a twitter account with 3000 followers and they have made zero tweets. They may aswell close it.  |
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Thanks sint, more interested in time of 2.30 and where they race. If in the centre and time is reasonable may well still go in again on Ortensia
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1.11.79 Gimcrack
but they went awfully slow for the first quarter @ 26s |