Sound reasoning James thanks.

Certify - On known form evidently the market thinks she's the one to beat. Despite a predominantly 7f US pedigree she is proven over a mile at the course. She's also won well over 6f showing a turn of foot when Mikael asked her (firmly) at Newmarket. Do you think that was the best introduction to racing though ? I'm not so sure. She does have the beating of Sky Lantern to boast about over 7f on the July course too - she was given a more considerate ride and although the runner up stayed with her it was her good turn of foot that enabled her to quicken past and win the race that day. Barzalona nearly got outridden by Dwyer when she narrowly defeated Purr along over a mile at Doncaster - she got the mile well enough - but I think this race spoke volumes about the man on top. She was really put into the race that and again tapped up by him for an all out performance. She met the challenge gamely enough but her 3rd race the attitude of Mikael Barzalona could hardly be described as considerate or educational. In her final win again he wallops her in the dip, yes she was impressive by nearly 5 lengths and she responded but Amazonas was closing fast and the impression I keep getting from the horse jockey combination is that she's been pushed out for all of these performances. Yes, ultimately they're reasonably impressive but if you're having to do that at 2 years old what are you teaching the horse ? What's the long term impact and what does it also tell us about the jockey ? I think his attitude is a factor I wouldn't be looking to back in any bet for this horse and I think it's significant enough to detract from her chances in the big race itself. There'll be more than Amazonas, Sky Lantern and Nargis flying at her come the 1000 Guineas itself. The Shadwell Fillies mile looked strong enough at the time on paper but some of the runners bltatantly didn't run to expectations and the margin of victory may well flatter her. e.g. Ollie Olga beat Sky Lantern previously, Discernable's a listed winner etc. I don't think Certify is a wheelbarrow job and I think the value will lie elsewhere. Probably favourite on the back of trainer profile and the unbeaten sequence of 1's next to her name. Not convinced personally and willing to take on.
Just the Judge - Rockfel winner. Beat a staying on Nargis over course back in October. Apparently all not well with her then in terms of a less than ideal prep and also her coat so must have some class to have beaten that field in what I would describe as a workman like victory. With the right yard for a filly and an early season performance. The betting suggests Charlie will have her ready for this one. Will certainly get a mile on breeding and beat colts when popped the question at Newbury the time before her Newmarket appearance. Does she flash her tail there ? An Oaks entry tells us that she's held in high regard. Given she was relatively pushed at Newbury, and under some strain at Newmarket where the horses in behind have all traded form at 2 years old with one another or other yardsticks I just question whether or not she's a true miler or possibly they see her, long term, as a middle distance filly at the end of this season. The plus is that they have targeted this race for some time since Newmarket, she's handled the dip and has been well supported in the betting. Jamie Spencer likely to take the ride. She's not a hold up horse though, despite swooping at Newbury, I would suggest she'd be best ridden to take advantage of that stamina. I can see Jamie dropping one on this possibly, let's face it he's done it before. Mmmmmm. Interesting. Definite possibilities for the win.
Big Break - I've put my heart on my sleeve with this one. Weld isn't a fool whatsoever and not one to open his mouth but I think they've seen something they're enamoured with at home. Even her first run of the season saw her finish pulling a train with no exertion from Pat on top when her chance had gone. He knew what he had under him and that her day was some way off so he simply took care of her. What amazes me about this talent is her burst of speed 2f out in each of her last two races. First time around on good ground, second time around up in class and against the colts on heavy ground. It takes some skill to do this on bad ground and the fact that she'll likely improve for better ground in the classic means the turn of foot might be even more explosive. 8th September 2012 one and a half out off the bend all Pat does is let out a bit of rein and the response was pretty much electric. A tiny tap later and she extended to be eased down at the finish with who knows what in hand. Similarly hands and heels were all that were evidently required to come from off the pace at the same course and distance 2f out and quicken dramtically 1f out in her last run against the colts. Taking time to come to herself this season apparently but I would be gobsmacked if she didn't take up her entry here and Dermot has time enough to get her ready. I think she's the real superstar of this race waiting to happen.
Sky Lantern - Hannon will likely have a line on What a Name with this one based on having her conqueror Olympic Glory in his care. Very smart form from Ireland where she took the Moyglare in convincing fashion against her own sex. Absolutely shocking trip in the Breeders Cup Juvenille, totally luckless using up loads of energy and stuck every which way she went in her first try over 8f. She has untapped potential and I can see her being a large large factor on the exposed course of the Rowley mile. Intriguing she gives this impression because the stamina is in the Distaff side only with her sire being Red Clubs. Although she looked luckless did her stamina also sap too early in the BC and would one with more stamina have had that problem ? Being a very harsh judge to write her off on that I think ... Hannon's language 'we think she'll get a mile' indicates that they'd have concerns ... and will a Hannon 2YO necessarily have the scope to train on at an enhanced distance ?? Definite doubts for me ...
What a Name - Has beaten colts. Concerned Twitter today suggested Flotilla may come over but I think What a Name the yard's principle hope based on ££ for her. Has the undoubted ability to win this but couldn't seem to quite quicken enough last time out in heavy enough ground. That is a concern for me as is the US breeding line and she might be at the limit of her stamina over the mile at this stage of her career - this said the Longchamp second was to a colt who had only been bettered by none other than Dawn Approach in previous engagements ...

So for me in summary it has to be between BIG BREAK and JUST THE JUDGE with the edge residing with the former due to the impressive nature of her wins albeit at a slightly lower level than the latter. Sentiment from the yard, 'a true miler with gears' and high praise from Weld indicates the real potential with this filly is over this distance. The potential with the other on the shortlist may well reside over a slightly longer trip. Should she make the trip, a tip in itself as others on here have quite rightly commented, then I think BIG BREAK will be the one.

There is now no money except for £5 at 38 on the pink side for BIG BREAK.

James the Tweet is below but what I'd like to know from you is your view on the total lack of cash and drift on here to 17.0 of Big Break. Nothing in it or ominous in your view ?

Tristan Wootton ‏@t_woots
@OnHarbourWatch From what I have read she will be aimed at the Diane so may miss the Guineas. Flotilla is going for the Eng 1000 Gns.
Followed by Sion and 39 others

The last quote I read from Dezangles was that What A Name would run in the Prix Imprudence and then come over, we'll see the entries.

What A Name entered in Prix Imprudence along with Maureen and Sky Lantern. Other Guineas entries entered are Sage Melody(same owner/trainer as What A Name), Peace Burg, Spinacre, Aquatinta (also entered in Prix Camargo LR at Saint Cloud 26/3 along with stable companion Kenhope)and Sara Lucille.

Alumna (Andre Fabre) runs in an 8 furlong maiden for unraced fillies a Chantilly tomorrow.

No mentions for Rasmeyaa? More for me



Obv only 1 of her or BB will turn up id assume and no idea if she is intended or not like most, but was very taken with her winning her maiden lto, came on bundles from her debut to demolish a couple of mid 80 rated horses, rehns nest back in 4th rated 99 was 2nd in a listed race on her run b4 and was beaten 10l by Rasmeyaa and was beaten only 4.5l by BB

Seen a lot worse 50+ shots

I know the feeling Prob will b the irish version but i av still backed her, was prob the one that impressed me most over here this season when winning, Big Break and Viztoria nt far behind tho



After race at Leopardstown Sat, 27th Oct, 2012 (1st) She ran a lovely race at the Curragh in a stakes race and I was very pleased with her first time up,. She's very good - a very talented filly. Obviously we see her as a group filly for next year and we'll look at a Guineas trial in the spring. She would like better ground and Pat said it's slower than you think out there. A mile is no problem to her. She does everything right. She has speed and stays. D K Weld


who knows

With Flotilla not entered for the Prix Imprudence, I think we can assume that she's unlikely to come over for the Guineas and that What A Name is being actively considered for the race...

Guys thanks VM for comments, nice to hear JamesP has topped up on BB.

Perhaps Weld will just send her straight over. She'd have to be 100% right for him to do this though and win on seasonal debut but it can be done. He has just about time enough with her and his comments earlier this week, re her coat, could well simply be stating the truth which wouldn't have an adverse effect in taking the focus and pressure off him.

I don't necessarily think its a bad thing though re the coat - there is time enough. Encouraging to see trickle of support in the market.

You really need to get some pills to take the edge off Harchibald - you are gonna cause yourself some damage fretting like this.

How much money had been staked in these so called moves? Nothing decided - end of.

given that Hamdan Al Maktoum only has Rasmeyaa(weld) and Reyaadah(hills) i think it is more likely than not that both will head to Newmarket with Hanagain having choice of who he wants and Dane taking the other  mount. Its possible that Weld would prefer to keep Rasmeyaa for the Irish 1000G but id venture the owner would like to go to Newmarket after already winning the Irish 1000G 3years ago.

Good to see Alterite win first time up today. Probably not coming over for our 1000 Guineas but gave another boost to the Marcel Boussac form. The race today was only Listed class but I really like this filly and one I will be following.

Also think Purr Along could still mix it with the best of them this year, that run in the Marcel Boussac was too bad to be true. A better jockey would help her as well!!!

Am I the only one interested by Bolgers Scintillula?

Ok she got stuffed on debut in heavy ground, but then Bolger pitched her straight into group 1 company for the Moyglare (a big hint about the trainers opinion there!). She duly finished 2nd behind Sky Lantern and the RP comments read "it would be no surprise if Scintillula emerged as the best long term prospect".

She then came over for the Rockfel where she drifted like a barge iirc and never really ran her race? (Granted she didn't seem to like the dip, which tempers my enthusiasm).

What interests me even more though is Bolgers success with this fillies three full sisters:

Cuis Ghaire: 2nd in 1000 Guineas, good to firm. Best form on G2F, which Scintillula has never experienced.
Gile Na Greine: 3rd in 1000 Guineas at 25/1, good to soft, having shown no form of any note on heavy/all weather. 2nd in Coronation Stakes on good to firm. Argue that best on good or quicker.
Claimoh Solais: 4th, beaten 2L in Irish 1000 Guineas at 33/1 (good). Had previously not shown anything like the form required to get involved in that race.

Anyone laying this at around 100 is bonkers imo. Not saying she will be good enough but given the family history of going damn close in 1000G when not entitled to on form, and Bolger pitching her in succesfully in the Moyglare, there's certainly enough to go at to make her overpriced. Could be a cracking back to lay IR on the day too.

Remember, Hannon's horse absolutely must have a trial to be taken seriously in bothe Guineas.  His record sending them straight there is terrible. We all rememmber the debate over Memory, yeah?

Its possible that Weld would prefer to keep Rasmeyaa for the Irish 1000G but id venture the owner would like to go to Newmarket after already winning the Irish 1000G 3years ago

But as the owner has won the English Guineas 5 times already, perhaps he'd prefer the Irish version? Tbh its pretty unusual for Weld to send any horse over for an English Classic, so sending two over for the same race would be bordering on the extraordinary

See what you mean now DMCK - personally be very surprised if she comes over but good luck nonetheless.

When is the leopardstown trial? Is there enough gap between that & HQ or would it mean she's staying in Ireland for their guineas?

More buttons drip drip dripping in for Big Break.

I see Rob in The Times puts her up tomorrow ....

So, the man sea gull picks out What a Name and it's cut accordingly.

This on the same day there's been more money for Big Break and she's cut.

Good quotes in the RP article, Teddy telling us Weld yard backward, had a tough winter as previously stated and IF she comes over for the Guineas she's likely to go straight there. Weld stating pretty much the same (looked like an old quote anyway) and to be honest Just the Judge apparently not come in her coat either.

You pays your money .....

Tom's had his go. I'm taking it on though, Big Break, all in for me and if she don't turn up I'll have to get it back somewhere.

Snow Queen was the other one put up by Sea Gull that's probably why the money's pitched up for her ....