Hi SG, these backend 2yo races in Ireland on soft ground are a bit of a nightmare to get to grips with aren't they?! Looking at the times and watching the videos I think the ground probably slowed a bit after the first 2 races. That's assuming the times are correct, they aren't always in Ireland and I haven't checked them properly yet. It looks like the nursery was run in a very slow time, so I don't think it's a useful comparison. Big Break obviously ran the better time, as you'd expect. I had her on a good figure for her maiden win and I have her improving 2lbs on that today. I have her only 2lbs behind the Guineas fav Certify (who is a decent filly but I still think one that has been a bit overrated). There doesn't seem to be much between the main contenders so BB would definitely be in the mix.

My feeling is that the soft ground made the victories look easier than they were. Even now, I'm sometimes guilty of overrating soft ground wins that turn out to be less impressive than they appeared at the time, so I would err on the side of caution here. As I said, though, these kind of races can be difficult to nail down quickly. It could be that as the future unfolds it's one of those cards I go back to and realise I underrated.

Obviously things didn't go well for Sky Lantern's backers and connections on Friday, but as an ante post backer of hers I was pretty satisfied and I feel a bit more hopeful about her chances than if she'd had a hard fought win.

"Sky Lantern's owners have had a great time, and now they are looking forward to next year's 1000 Guineas. We know that we have a great filly and, hopefully, she'll prove that at Newmarket in May. The dream is very much still alive."

That was taken from Hannon's website, so the Guineas is still very much on the cards. I'd still much rather be with her and Big Break than any of the other fillies I've seen.

Viztoria takes a step up in class over in Francais today.

Didn't see the race. Apparently connections plan on keeping Viztoria for the Irish version.

Prix Morny form outstanding now

i see r hughes said in his column saturday that he thinks sky lantern could make up into an oaks filly, i am no expert on pedigrees but i see she is related to shropshire and artic and her sire is red clubs. i am a big fan of the filly and will be backing her over the winter for guineas. any opinions on her james? thanks

DMCK - I'm curious. My catalogue goes from 871 directly to 873.  Tell me about 872 please!

James. any opinion on sky lantern for guineas? thanks

TTT as March approaches quite quickly and the trials will be upon us before we know it.

Anyone got any updated news fron over the winter?

given the milder winter the Irish are getting compared to England id have the Ire horses on a slight advantage, DK Welds Big Break must be under serious consideration with a fair bit of money being matched over the winter.

id be very wary of the Godophin false good form from Dubai.

my own picks are the french what a name who may want a prep race for the guineas but not much info coming out of france. and my other is the New Approach Rasmeyaa, a fine filly who was always going to develop into a better 3year old and the trip of a mile is ideal, in the plus side is that id imagine Paul hanagain will take the ride and Smullen will be on Big Break.

just my own, personal thought on a horses Guineas build up. While UK horses may not have missed work, their pregression from slow to fast work can be put back by sub zero conditions. I see if i can find a quote from Hannon saying the bad winter had held up their guineas horses from 4/5 years ago.

Past results of the 1000 Guineas suggest that one should be looking for a progressive filly rated at least 100 (OR or RPR) that showed enough in its juvenile season to win in pattern company (Listed class or above) or a filly that was not beaten far in Gr.1 or Gr.2 company (over at least 6f). One should be prepared to forgive a below-par performance at the end of the two-year-old campaign, provided the filly had previously had a progressive profile and shown enough class to win in pattern company.  Using such criteria and a certain amount of gut feeling, I have eliminated 54 of the 69 entries from serious consideration and am focusing on a long 'short-list' of 15 fillies at this stage, six of which I have already backed antepost.  Here are the first five fillies on the list (in alphabetical order).  Further analysis and selections to follow...

Aquatinta progressed with every start last season and was a comfortable winner of the Gr.3 Prix Miesque on her final start, where she showed a smart turn of foot in heavy ground to beat a fairly useful field, including the Gr.3 winner Melody Of Love (also beaten a similar margin by Just The Judge in the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes) and the quite useful Queen Aggie (officially rated 94).  She needs to improve on the bare form of that race to make an impact in the Guineas and there must be some doubt about her participation - she is also entered in the French Guineas and in a couple of races in Germany at about the same time as the Guineas.  If she turns up at Maisons-Laffitte (where she is a course and distance winner) for the Prix Imprudence on 4 April, we will have another opportunity to assess her before the Guineas.  She's by the 12f Gr.1 winner Samum and is a full sister to a winning hurdler, so she may need further than a mile to be seen to best advantage this year.  She has only raced on soft ground to date.

Big Break appears to be highly regarded by her trainer Dermot Weld, who has several other useful three-year-old fillies in his stable to act as yardsticks to measure her ability.  After Big Break won her maiden easily at Leopardstown in September her trainer described her as "very talented" and revealed that he saw her as an English Guineas filly.  She then outclassed her rivals in a fairly uncompetitive renewal of the Gr.3 Killavullan Stakes on her final start last year, showing a good turn of foot to win impressively on ground that she reportedly didn't relish (it was officially 'soft' and the winning time was more than 7s slower than standard).  She's a full sister to the smart 8-10f winner Famous Name and half-sister to 10f Listed winner Zaminast, so she'll have no trouble getting the mile at Newmarket.  She wants 'decent' ground and will almost certainly act on 'good to firm'.

Certify was champion two-year-old filly and is winter favourite for the Guineas following an unbeaten campaign last year.  She made an immediate impact when winning her maiden impressively on the July Course in a fast time, showing a good turn of foot, and had no trouble following up in the Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes when upped to 7f on the same course, beating subsequent Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes winner Sky Lantern.  She gave her backers a fright next time in the Gr.2 May Hill Stakes when just getting up close home to beat Purr Along (the pair pulling 8 lengths clear of Light Up My Life, who went on to be a close second in a Gr.3 race next time) but was far more impressive on her final outing in the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile where the result was never in doubt and she won by a wide margin from Listed-class opposition. She is a very likeable filly with a smart turn of foot who stays a mile well (but may not get much further) and seems to go on any ground (she has won on soft, good and good to firm), so she is a worthy favourite for the Guineas at this stage.  But it remains to be seen whether she will continue to progress at three and enthusiasm is tempered by Mahmood Al Zarooni's comment after the May Hill: "I am not sure whether she will be a good three-year-old because of her small size but time will tell..."

Flotilla had looked decidedly unlucky in her two forays into pattern company in France (in the Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale, where she was given too much to do, and the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac, where she got trapped on the rail and couldn't get out in time to reach the leaders), so it was not altogether a surprise when she won the Gr.1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf on her final start of the year (the first time she had encountered fast ground). The form of that race looks quite strong if one accepts that the sixth Waterway Run (winner of the Gr.3 Oh So Sharp Stakes) gave her true running.  She is clearly a smart filly with a turn of foot, who handles both fast and soft ground and gets a mile well.  If she is aimed at the Guineas she will be a tough nut to crack, but her trainer Mikel Delzangles and her Qatari owner also have the smart filly What A Name entered for the race.

Just The Judge has attracted plenty of support for the Guineas in recent weeks following positive noises from her trainer Charlie Hills and it's not hard to see why.  Well backed on her Newbury debut, she was ridden confidently from the rear of the field and stayed on powerfully to win her maiden quite impressively despite showing signs of greenness.  She did well to follow up at the same course next time in the Listed Washington Singer Stakes, having been held up off a moderate early pace, but outclassed her rivals and won comfortably.  A couple of Gr.1 races were under consideration after that success, but she had a bad scope after the Newbury race and then went in her coat, so they were both bypassed in favour of a tilt at the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes, a race that had been won several times by the trainer's father Barry (with the likes of Negligent, Yawl, Hula Angel and Maids Causeway).  It didn't look the strongest of renewals (the filly with arguably the best form, Scintillula, was weak in the market and appeared not to give her running, and the fillies that finished second and third had been beaten in a nursery and a conditions race respectively), but Just The Judge passed the test with flying colours, showing a smart turn of foot to take control of the race a furlong out before being ridden out to score decisively.  She has won on 'good to firm' and 'good to soft' ground, she handles the Rowley Mile course and will have no trouble getting a mile.  Michael Hills was happy to put her in the same league as his previous winners of the Rockfel (who all proved up to classic standard) and she must be a leading contender for the Guineas.  If all goes well she is likely to have a racecourse gallop at the Craven meeting prior to the Guineas.

Here's the next five fillies (in alphabetical order):

Magical Dream took the notable scalp of Big Break (who was making her debut and had no luck in running) when winning a Galway maiden on her second start, but she failed to give her running next time in the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes at the Curragh, where she finished more than 6 lengths behind a filly she had beaten previously at Galway.  She put up a much improved performance in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, keeping on well in the closing stages to finish just behind the placed fillies Scintillula and Harasiya, giving the impression that she would be suited by a step up in trip.  On her final start she showed plenty of resolution to land the Gr.3 CL Weld Park Stakes on heavy ground in a very slow time, again shaping as though a longer trip would suit.  Trainer Aidan O'Brien described her as "a grand filly who is improving and will stay further".  As a daughter of Galileo out of smart miler Red Evie she will certainly get a mile and may eventually be suited by 10f+.  She has arguably achieved more at two than either of Aidan's previous winners of the 1000 Guineas (Virginia Waters and Homecoming Queen, both of whom managed to get beaten in the Gr.3 CL Weld Park Stakes).

Maureen looked a class act on her debut when winning a poor Newbury maiden very easily and just over two weeks later found herself pitched into Gr.2 company in the Cherry Hinton Stakes, where she narrowly failed to reel in the winner after having a nightmare passage under Jimmy Fortune.  She was certainly the best filly in the race and was an unlucky loser.  Made odds-on favourite for the Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes next time out, she landed the odds with the minimum of fuss, once again showing loads of pace and a smart change of gears to take the lead over a furlong out before cruising home.  She may have been over the top when disappointing on her final start in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes, racing keenly and never looking like getting competitive (but still only beaten 4 lengths by the winner despite meeting trouble in running).  On breeding she ought to stay a mile, as she's by Holy Roman Emperor out of a full sister to Belle Famille (placed over 12f), and both of her siblings have won over a mile or further, but she wasn't terribly big last year and the suspicion remains that she may just have been a two-year-old.

Nargys looked a long way short of Guineas class in her first four races, culminating in a second place in a valuable nursery off a mark of 82 (when badly drawn), but made massive improvement on her final start in the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes (well backed) where she met trouble in running before staying on strongly to finish second to leading Guineas hope Just The Judge.  As a result of that much improved effort her official rating shot up from 86 to 103, and if she has continued to progress over the winter she could well make an impact in one of the trials and put herself in the reckoning for the Guineas itself.

Peace Burg made a very favourable impression on her debut in the Prix Mary Tudor over 6f (a race in which the smart Helleborine made her debut in 2010), where she showed excellent acceleration to go clear and win easily by 3 lengths.  On her second start (over 7½f on very soft ground) she ran on well to beat the very useful Alterite (subsequently beaten a couple of heads in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac), with Aquatinta back in fifth place.  Next time out she overcame trouble in running to get up on the line in the Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale, a performance which caused her to be sent off favourite for her final start of the year in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac, where she again met trouble (trapped on the rail) but this time failed to pick up in the heavy ground and lost her unbeaten record (beaten less than two lengths in fifth, finishing behind a couple of fillies she had beaten in previous races).  Sure to stay at least 10f this year, she is worth another chance on decent ground, but there must be a strong likelihood that she will stay at home for the French Guineas.

Purr Along progressed nicely through her first three races, finishing third in a Listed race at Sandown after a winning debut on Polytrack, then springing a surprise when winning a poorish renewal of the Gr.3 Prix du Calvados at Deauville in a blanket finish.  But it was her fourth start (in the Gr.2 May Hill Stakes), where she very nearly toppled the Guineas favourite Certify, that marked her out as a smart filly with genuine classic pretensions: the step up to a mile suited her very well and she pulled 8 lengths clear of the rest of the field.  Nothing went right for her on her final start (in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac), where she was poorly positioned and given too much do, then had to wait for a run at a crucial time and when finally in the clear stayed on without troubling the leaders (beaten about 6 lengths).  The ground was probably against her at Longchamp and she is worth another chance on decent ground.  She possesses more physical scope than Certify, who beat her narrowly at Doncaster, and could well develop into a live Guineas contender.

So what do you think the chances are that of K Abdulla's 3 entries in this race Big Break will come over from the emerald isle ? PS Great posting james thanks

Thanks James, I've been absolutely all over this today and seen his quotes, his evidently high regard for her etc. etc. I think this is the one for me. I'm probably going to wade in. His other entry Rasmeyaa also has Irish Guineas and Oaks entries so likely Big Break is his chance for the English Guineas in my opinion. I have had a bit of success to lumpy bets in this race over the past 5 years and this one is a standout for me, I will try before the price goes. Any views ?

I got to be honest with you, I have now played.

Been known to lose bundles antepost before, will I ever learn - hopefully this won't be another lesson to me but I'd like to see more pink on Betfair, still Lads 16's was tempting and they let me get a decent size on (always ominous too ...)

oh well .... live by the sword ....

Ok, so I think I've had a crisis of confidence.

In the RP interview today all Weld said was that she was taking time to come to hand.

Guineas still the aim seems a reasonable conclusion and more money for her. No flagrant drift in the market so the ticket here could be safe on this one.

How often does one hear, after a successful race, the term 'she's only just come to herself these last couple of weeks' Mullins is a classic for this as are numerous other trainers.

Backers of BIG BREAK have 8 weeks for this to happen and Dermot to be convinced. I am not the most patient, and I don't train horses, but one has to take a chance and keep the faith.

Signs look encouraging. With regards to Guineas prep runs, it's not de rigeur for this classic is it ? Many have won going there fresh so to speak on their 3 YO debut of the season.

Still all to play for, ticket still very much valid.

Glad I managed to convince myself. You ?

These are the last five fillies on my 'shortlist':

Rosdhu Queen tops the list of last season's 6f juvenile fillies after rounding off an unbeaten campaign with victory in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes.  She is blessed with plenty of speed, as she showed when winning over 5f on debut (made all, clear over 2f out) and when following up in Listed company at Newbury over the minimum trip in August.  After the Newbury win trainer's wife Maureen said that the filly was "probably best over 5f" and that the Lowther would come too soon, but six days later she did turn out for the Gr.2 Lowther Stakes at York and extended her unbeaten run to three with another front-running performance in a race that was marred by the fatal injury to hot favourite Newfangled.  The form of that race is very ordinary for the grade, with the third Royal Rascal having been beaten in a nursery previously off a mark of 87 and the fourth City Girl officially rated just 78 going into the race.  In the Cheveley Park Stakes she was allowed to dictate from the front at just a sensible pace and had the benefit of racing against the rail, but to her credit she knuckled down when put under pressure by the placed fillies and stayed on to score by a length.  The form of that race is held down by the proximity in sixth of 66/1 chance Jillnextdoor (beaten 2¼l), officially rated 88 after losing her maiden tag at the sixth attempt at Ffos Las and subsequently well beaten in three Listed contests.  On breeding (she's an Invincible Spirit half-sister to two sprint winners) and style of racing there must be doubts about her getting a mile.

Sky Lantern won her maiden first time out at Goodwood (a race her trainer had won for the previous four years, including with the smart pair Elusive Wave and Memory) in the style of a potentially smart performer, showing plenty of speed and outclassing the opposition.  She made it two wins from as many starts next time out in a Listed 6f contest at Naas on yielding ground (ground probably didn't suit), shaping as though she would be suited by an extra furlong, but then lost her unbeaten record behind Certify in the Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes, staying on strongly to finish just a length behind the smart winner and pulling well clear of the third.  On her fourth start she was narrowly beaten in the Gr.3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood, where the yielding ground was probably not in her favour, but put up a much improved performance next time in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, quickening up in the style of a smart and progressive filly to take the lead a furlong from home and winning easily by 2½ lengths.  The form of that Curragh contest has been crabbed by some commentators on the basis that the runner-up Scintillula was beaten over 5 lengths in the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes on her only subsequent start (probably below her best on that occasion), but the form has a solid look to it, with Gr.3 winner (Gr.2 placed) Harasiya in third, subsequent Gr.3 winner Magical Dream in fourth and Gr.2 winner Sendmylovetorose in sixth.  On her final start in the Gr.1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf she was sent off favourite but suffered a nightmare passage under Richard Hughes before staying on strongly to finish eighth (beaten about 5½ lengths by Flotilla).  That final run is best ignored and she is much better judged on her impressive Curragh victory.  She is a good-sized filly with plenty of scope, who should make a smart three-year-old at around a mile.  Although she's by the speedy Red Clubs and is a half-sister to smart sprinter Arctic, there is plenty of stamina in the distaff side of her pedigree, her dam being a daughter of Shareef Dancer and 1000 Guineas-placed Negligent.

Viztoria won her first two races, both over 6f including a Listed contest, by an aggregate of 15 lengths, on both occasions showing plenty of speed and excellent acceleration in testing conditions to win impressively.  The form of her second win has a solid enough look to it, with the runner-up Snow Queen going on to win a nursery next time off a mark of 93 and the third (Tennessee Wildcat) going on to finish runner-up next time in another Listed contest at Dundalk.  On her final start in November in the Gr.2 Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte she again raced prominently but this time had to be given a couple of reminders by Johnny Murtagh and had no answer to the impressive finishing speed of the winner Penny's Picnic, who beat her easily by a length.  She has raced only on heavy ground and clearly acts very well with plenty of cut in the ground, so it remains to be seen whether she can reproduce her form on a faster surface.  On breeding she ought to stay at least a mile, possibly 10f, as she is by Oratorio out of a 12f winner, and she wasn't stopping in the closing stages of the French race, but her half-sister Vizean (by Medicean) was a 6f performer at 3-4, and it's possible that distances short of a mile will suit her ideally.

What A Name may be one of the worst named horses in training(!) but in four races last year she marked herself out as a seriously talented filly with classic aspirations.  Following a very promising debut third at Deauville over 6f on very soft ground (ran on well final furlong, beaten a couple of necks behind Morning Frost, who recently won a Listed race at Chantilly), she was visually very impressive when winning a 6½f conditions race at Deauville by 7 lengths, showing a remarkable turn of foot to quicken clear of three previous winners.  She was made favourite for her next start at Longchamp, the Gr.3 Prix la Rochette over 7f, and never looked like letting down her supporters, travelling well behind the leaders before quickening up smartly in the final furlong and a half to score very comfortably by nearly two lengths.  The form received a boost when Pearl Flute (beaten two lengths) went on to win the Gr.3 Prix des Chenes and then finished third (beaten a length) in the Gr.1 Gran Criterium at San Siro.  On her fourth and final start she returned to Longchamp for the Gr.1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere, where the testing conditions seemed to find her out, as she stayed on to take second at the line but failed to reel in the smart colt Olympic Glory (already proven on heavy ground).  Both her wins came on good ground and it's likely that she needs a decent surface to produce her best form.  She looks sure to stay a mile and looks a leading player in the Guineas if she is aimed at the race, although it should be noted that her connections also have Flotilla entered for the race.

Winning Express showed a good turn of foot and overcame greenness when winning a 5f maiden at Sandown on debut before stepping up to Listed company at Salisbury in September, where she ran on well to beat useful yardstick Jadanna by 1¼ lengths (value for more).  Thrown into Gr.1 company on her third and final start, she acquitted herself well in the Cheveley Park Stakes, running on under pressure to pip Baileys Jubilee for second spot on the post, a length behind winner Rosdhu Queen.  The form of that race looks rather shaky, as has been noted above, but Ed McMahon's lightly raced filly had a progressive profile last year and it will be interesting to see whether she can continue to progress this year.  Her sire Camacho has yet to sire a top-class horse (his best offspring to date having been the Gr.3 winner Puff) and there must be a good possibility that she will prove best at distances short of a mile, although she shapes as though she will stay 7f.

That completes the list of 15 fillies that I believe require consideration for the Guineas.  Next task is to whittle them down to half a dozen serious contenders...

Good read as always jamesp.

At this stage I'm on JTG and Sky Lantern.

Filling me with confidence Sint ..... and sadly you are indeed correct as well I know too. Are you on anything antepost in this 1000 market ?

It's time to narrow down the field from the 'shortlist' of 15 fillies.

Aquatinta is readily passed over: her trainer has never had a winner in this country (as far as I know) and has very few runners here, so she seems much more likely to stay at home for the French Guineas than come over to Newmarket; she has only raced on soft ground and is unproven on a faster surface; and her pedigree suggests that she will probably be suited by further than a mile this year.

There has been no news regarding Peace Burg, so it is reasonable to assume at this stage that she will stay at home for the French Guineas.

Maureen wasn't terribly big last year and showed a lot of speed in her races, so she now has something to prove following that slightly disappointing performance in the Cheveley Park Stakes.

On pedigree and style of racing Rosdhu Queen and Winning Express are both doubtful stayers.

Nargys was beaten fair and square by Just The Judge in the Rockfel Stakes and I don't see any obvious reason why she should reverse that form; prior to the Rockfel she hadn't shown anything on the racecourse to suggest that she could be a Guineas contender.

Purr Along may find a mile on the sharp side for her this year but could enter into the reckoning: she's one to keep an eye on but I'm not tempted to back her at this stage.

Viztoria has only ever raced on heavy ground and it's anybody's guess how she would handle fast conditions; she is reportedly being prepared for the Irish Guineas and there must be a doubt about her turning up at Newmarket.

It would be folly to dismiss the chances of Magical Dream, but she needs to make a fair amount of improvement on the bare form of her races last season.

That leaves Big Break, Certify, Flotilla, Just The Judge, Sky Lantern and What A Name.

Flotilla and What A Name are in the same ownership and are both trained by Mikel Delzangles.  It's highly unlikely that they will both come over for the Guineas.  Having already backed What A Name, I'm not going to desert her now, but if Flotilla came over instead she would certainly merit a lumpy bet.  The Prix Imprudence should tell us which is the likely one.

Big Break needs to improve on the bare form of her Killavullan Stakes win, but she is highly regarded and back on a decent surface she could be anything. 

Certify ticks most of the boxes and is the one they all have to beat.  Just The Judge also ticks most of the boxes and only needs to make normal improvement to be a serious contender.  Sky Lantern was an impressive winner of the Moyglare and had no luck in running in the Breeders' Cup race, so she has to be a serious contender too.

At this stage the ones I fancy most are (in no particular order): Certify, Just The Judge, Sky Lantern and What A Name.  The antepost bets already in my book are Certify at 16s, Just The Judge at 20s, Sky Lantern at 25s and What A Name at 33s, 25s and 16s.  I also have Maureen at 20s and 16s, Big Break at 25s and 16s and the ill-fated Newfangled at 33s.

Good luck all.