king george chase kempton 2012

And a Tube strike!

COC'S are usually optimisic about racing going ahead and with going predictions.
If you live down south not far from Surrey you know what weather weve had,and as its soft at the moment it stands to reason with the predicted rain coming over the next few days,then it will get softer.
Forecast rain on Boxing Day wont help matters either.

The market would suggest that SDC runs.

Updated for Junior's supplementary entry.

Horse    Score
Long Run 92%
Captain Chris 62%
Kauto Stone 61%
Wishfull Thinking 54%
Riverside Theatre 53%
Grands Crus 50%
Hunt Ball 50%
Finian´s Rainbow 48%
Junior 45%
The Giant Bolster 44%
Champion Court 35%
Cue Card 35%
Menorah 35%
For Non Stop 34%
Sir Des Champs 34%

Nobody wants Cue Cards now. Anyone heard anything?

*Card

strengthened up now ,just the market  adjusting and settling down  now i reckon pete

Yeah thats what i hope it is too what with SDC shortening up quite a bit the markets adjusting itself i think.

Well at least i hope it is anyways

Really could do without SDC being in the race, but hey ho thats just being selfish that like

Cu Card very weak, virtually no money trying to get on - 6.8 to lay for £44

Final decs Monday?

it was like that earier judo about 9 o clock ,weak, firmsup again ,then  weak again.

can only monitor... hmmm

Sir Des Champs gets promoted a few places as it looks like he could go off at 8/1 or less..

Horse    Score
Long Run 92%
Captain Chris 62%
Kauto Stone 61%
Wishfull Thinking 54%
Riverside Theatre 53%
Grands Crus 50%
Hunt Ball 50%
Finian´s Rainbow 48%
Junior 45%
The Giant Bolster 44%
Sir Des Champs 43%
Champion Court 35%
Cue Card 35%
Menorah 35%
For Non Stop 34%

Kauto Stone looking a non runner on betfair .

yeah significant drift on Kauto stone. Nothing from the yard yet.

just came on to say the same

I thought he was certain to go whatever the ground so odd that he has drifted

just drifting because of the support for sir and now grand cru. doubt nicholls will not have a runner in the race unless its injured but tbh If it was injured Nicholls would be open.

@brooksielad, thought exactly the same. Too much money on the line not to have any runner and they are pretty transparent

Cue Card 6/1 here now.

@festivalfanatic - Market closes Sunday so I think the final decs must be early for Christmas.

Something funny's going on. Whenever the market does this, news always follows in my experience. SDC and Cue Card
are too easy to bet.

Maybe Rubi rides Sir Dessy

betting down with Billies, Ladcrokes and Veeee Ceeeee

B0yles go 9.4 LR with a run. That's starting to look quite attractive...

Racing Post ‏@Racing_Post
Sir Des Champs will miss the King George and run in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown on Friday

He was never going to go. Todays prices were about the bookies knowing he wasn't going, but making it loook as if he was being backed so that people rushed in there with money.

What happens to all ante post bets if the kempton meeting does not take place,hopefully the meeting will go ahead but just curious as to what happens to say al ferof bets that were put on with 26th december marked on?? I did think they would all be void even if race was run on a different day but still at kempton??

If the event doesn't take place,all bets are returned .

Sounds like you bet Al Ferof terriers??
If the meeting got called off on the 26th Dec, you would still not get your ante-p bet back on Al Ferof, as he was taken out this wk due to a set back.

Cheers turnip turns!!

Racing Post ‏@Racing_Post
The Nicky Henderson-trained Finian's Rainbow will miss the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day.

Makes sense, with 2 other runners, and him hating the ground last time out.

Sir Des Champs stays in Ireland for the Lexus.

Dropping like flies now. There's talk of Hunt Ball and Champion Court going out.
Which ones are definite runners? Long Run and Junior... what else?

I don't think Grand Crus will run either. The field is a bit decimated. I've beens stung badly so i'm going to swerve this race and forget about it. Good luck to any of you folks who still have vouchers kickin about.

so mare the final decs tomorrow?

and what news of rainfall at Kempton today?

final decs tomoz,market closes at 10am.

cheers turnips

judo i am in london and we have had an unbelivable amount of rain, from about 4 in the morning to about 11 o clock it was torrential rain and it has eased a bit but it has not really stopped and is still coming down steadily now !

blimey Foyles!

Why is For Non Stop such a big price?  If it turns up it must have a chance as it has decent from on soft and for me has been crying out for this trip.

Cue Card gave him 7lbs and a 4 length beating so he has bundles to find for a start

Kauto Stone now looks the one imo. Happy t be on at big prices will have a save on Long Run.

kauto stone is in good form and wont mind the ground,thats for sure, sez pumpkin

10 declared:

Long Run, Riverside Theatre, Kauto Stone, Cue Card, For Non Stop, Captain Chris, Champion Court, Junior, Grands Crus and The Giant Bolster confirmed.

Clerk of the course Barney Clifford said: “It is soft, heavy in places - 60 per cent soft, 40 per cent heavy. We have some showers this afternoon, up to 10mm, and possibly more showers tomorrow.” (9 mins ago)

Hell of a field and couldn't say i'd be shocked if any of them got the win.

I'd be dissapointed if Kauto Stone won with some of his form from last season.

yes and the form of his win in Ireland has been shown to be weak with First Lieutenant and Quito de la Roque both well beaten in lower grade since.

Kauto Stone will need to improve significantly on that form to win this red hot contest

Final field ratings:

Horse    Score
Long Run 92%
Captain Chris 62%
Kauto Stone 61%
Riverside Theatre 53%
Grands Crus 50%
Junior 45%
The Giant Bolster 44%
Champion Court 35%
Cue Card 35%
For Non Stop 34%

Selection: Long Run

Timeform examine each runner in the prestigious King George VI Chase, set to be run at Kempton on Boxing Day...
Captain Chris won the 2010/11 Arkle and was as good as ever when landing a 19f Grade 2 at Ascot on recent reappearance, but will do well to better his third in this contest last year.
Champion Court took well to chasing last term, posting several good placed efforts alongside his 2 wins. Sure to be sharper for return over an inadequate trip, but needs to scale new heights to get involved.                   
Cue Card was the only horse to get close to Sprinter Sacre when second in Arkle last term. Most impressive when making a winning return in Haldon Gold Cup on reappearance, and breeding offers hope he will stay 3m.
For Non Stop improved when making a winning return in Grade 2 Old Roan Chase. Backed that up when second to Captain Chris at Ascot last month, but bit to find to trouble the principals now tackling 3m over fences.
Grands Crus looked an outstanding novice when slamming Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth in Feltham on this card a year ago, but something to prove following latest flop in Paddy Power Gold Cup.
Junior jumped fluently when making all to regain winning thread at Newcastle on recent reappearance. Connections forked out £10,000 to supplement him for this, nonetheless, looks up against it.
Kauto Stone got back on track when proving too strong for First Lieutenant in Grade 1 JNwine Chase at Down Royal in November. Could reach a place given stamina doubts surrounding many of the others.
Long Run won this and the Gold Cup in 2010/11 season. Not the dominant force he promised to be in this division since, but still the one to beat given the doubts surrounding many of his rivals.
Riverside Theatre landed 3 Grade 1 events on the bounce since chasing home Long Run in this race two seasons ago. Disappointing when last seen at Aintree in April, but contender given good record fresh.
The Giant Bolster confirmed himself a top-class chaser when runner-up in Cheltenham Gold Cup last season. Cemented improvement when third in Betfair Chase on return, but probably playing for place money again.
Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Cue Card
2. Long Run
3. Riverside Theatre
Timeform View: Long Run's two career-best performances have come in this race, but he isn't bombproof by any means, and the likely strong pace could put his jumping under pressure. With that in mind it may pay to take a chance with Cue Card, whose breeding offers hope that he will stay this far. Riverside Theatre and Kauto Stone may fare best of the rest.

Cue Card is different class from the rest, including Long Run. If he stays, he wins

Yes if he stays could well win.
Fancy For non stop to be staying on if he can do
a clear round...big e/w price

It's absolutely teeming down here in Seth London. Expect the KG to be run over  more like 3 & 1/2 miles not 3,. Non stayers will be found out after 2 & 1/2 miles. In fact it is raining so hard, I'll be surprised if meet goes ahead?

the meeting is 1.07 to be on

it is pishing down in south east london and i dont mean a few showers here and there constant heavy rain from last night and when i woke this morning it is raining even harder i would say this wont go ahead tommoz ,even the ducks in my local pond were heard muttering something about a game of soldiers !

1 mile from track and has been raining for 3 or 4 hours on and off.

1.07 is not great odds to be honest..

1.13 to be on now and still coming down !

From Racing Post site at 10am Xmas day

Going change at Kempton
The going at Kempton is now heavy. Don't worry, the meeting is not at risk. A thunderstorm deposited 6mm of rain overnight causing the going to ease. The rain is still falling, but is expected to ease shortly.

Looking at some of the previous comments I would be amazed if Kauto stone was good enough to win. His best performance on the ratings was 166 but this was against two horses who are only championship level. First lieutenant ran creditably enough but was recieving a pound and beaten 8L by Bob's worth doesn't suggest that horse is a serious force over 3m. Quito de la roque never quite done it in Grade 1s at the highest level. Even that last performance was much in excess of anything Kauto Stone had done before and I wonder if it was just a fluke. He will have to run more than 10 better than that to have a chance and Ruby seemed to say as much when he said he would be surprised if he was good enough.

fallen angel, perhaps Ruby is playing down Kauto Stones chances. Personally i think that grade 1 win over in ireland is some of the best form on offer this season. Only Long Runs run behind Silviniaco Conti was probably better, that because Conti will turn out to be a gold cup winner. If Quito and First Lt are only championship level, then i presume you think something in the king george field is of a higher lvl...? Long Run is no super star and the newcomers are nothing special. His beating of First Lt which was fairly easy will stand him in good stead for finishing in the first 3 at least.

would argue that Cue card has also produced a bit of top class form as well. All about opinions but I will probably be place laying him in the run. I had him 5th /6th best horse in the race. I maybe proved wrong, it has certainly happened before.

Well ive decided now that LR is the most likely winner given conditions and proven stayer,but of course hes fav,and price is too short for me.RT,CC,GC and KS are also too short with question marks that surround them.

So i am backing all the rest small for a bit of fun.

Race has become a bit of a lottery imo,so think it wise to keep my powder dry for other days.

David Bridgwater:

2 horse race,us and Long Run !!

Absolutely love that enthusiasm and how down to earth he is. What a complete contrast to LR connections. If he wins will be great for the sport, rubbish for my pocket however.

I don't know what will win this and a bit like budd, I wouldn't be totally surpised to see a complete outsider collect. If they make plenty of use of Long Run however, on this ground I think half the field will have cried 'enough' before turning in.

me too mate,enjoyed listening to him,and would indeed be good for the sport.
And unlike your good self my pocket will be ok,took 20's the other day.
not sure the ground and right handed will suit,but i reckon he was a bit of value at 20,especially with the price of LR,who he bear fair and square in the gold cup.

great shout from the opening poster ,Foyles,  100-1 on Cue Card was a great pick.
I'm on Cue Card too but agree with others this heavy going could definitely help the staying ability of Long Run.
I hope Joe doesn't disappoint the horse and try to drop CC in. He is a naturally keen and exuberant sort, he likes to front run and see his fences. I think Joe has done quite a good job with him thus far and fingers crossed he sticks to front running tactics and gets Long Run out of his comfort zone and exposes his poor jumping.

I'd be very worried about the ground with Grand Cru anything worse than Good/Soft he has been beaten bar 1 race, mix that in with his recent wind op, all I can see connections doing today is ruining the horse even further.

For Non Stop non runner.

thanks brandy yeah hope that they point and shoot with cue card ,would hate to see him held up and pulling tizzes arms off ,ride him prominent and let him ping the fences and see what happens . one of the few  in the race who have the potential to go to the top.

if you look over the last 30 years, this race has hardly ever been won by anything priced bigger than 10/1, in fact most are 8/1 or less so I will be extremely surprised if an outsider wins but of course incidents do happen like Barton Bank falling with the race won

I've had some 7.2 Cue Card, 10 Grands Crus and 9.8 TGB and will be playing in running

good luck folks, what a great race in prospect

think champion court has been completely overlooked here and feel he can place at a nice price captain chris is interesting also...

long run with bronco billy on board is regressive and as much as he is a price to find out that has to be taken on trust on what we have seen recently...he has been on the go a very long time and is starting to look very exposed...

cue card is interesting but hasn't been trained or ridden to ever get 3 miles and that worries me personally, hazzard continually letting the horse run loose instead of reining him in and educating him...if he wins after being ridden this way he is a monster but he won't be able to pull and get home here on this ground and until the horse is ridden to get further he cannot be backed with confidence...

riverside theatre is a proper grade 1 horse but has come up short in this race before

the giant bolster is interesting as ran a nice prep at haydock but has never been right handed and not sure with the ground for him...

anyway the race stinks with so many horses with questions to answer champion court should not be overlooked in the place market and that is where I'm at, he was over the top when beaten at aintree and needed the run last time, ground will be ok for him also, had a little of the 38's also which is an insult...captain chris has plenty to find but only goes right handed and will be trained for the minute for this after jumping very well at ascot last time... with very limited opportunities this is his big day so he is worth a poke at 20's although he has been weak on here the last week which is a slight concern but that maybe down to the ground... although the ground is against him it may help his jumping and he was ok at ascot last time on it...some will say neither are good enough but I think they are both capable of running to 170 and that maybe good enough

well off to cook the roast which is a nap to be good good luck foyles with what was a good shout to start the tread off with... has been a good read...

With the ground as it is (heavy) i expect Long Run will take the prize 2day.
Gd luck all.

Final field ratings:

Horse    Score
Long Run 92%
Captain Chris 62%
Kauto Stone 61%
Riverside Theatre 53%
Grands Crus 50%
Junior 45%
The Giant Bolster 44%
Champion Court 35%
Cue Card 35%
For Non Stop 34%

Selection: Long Run

The trends knew!

Laid Al Ferof antepost and Cue Card in running. Happy.

nice work again joci club

Well done LR backers.

Foyles, you got a great price but CC did not enjoy that from the outset - serious blunder at first, mistake at 2nd, took a bad bump turning away on first circuit which seemed to unsettle him even more. Must have had every chance of getting that trip on good ground; nothing went his way today (although he won at Exeter, he might well have a preference for going left handed) but you should get your cash back in Ryanair

Think Tidal Bay might have gone very close today in this, after all it turned into a slog, and the staying power of Long Run prevailed.

And Dynaste's time in the Feltham was 3.5 seconds faster than the King George winning time, and he finished like a fresh horse.

You have to balance against that the fact that there was a lot of rain before / during the King George which would probably have made the ground even more testing, but still a very encouraging performance by by Dynaste.

I backed Dynaste thx to your trends so thank you. I was going to back Long Run but fell asleep!

and

grand cru ran quicker in the feltenham. I wouldn't look to much into the times. really surprised conti hasn't shortened for the gold cup. captain Chris pleasantly surprised me and could turn up in a national one day. pretty disappointed with kauto stone thought he was going to enjoy the ground but he just seemed to get swallowed up by it. cue card as expected and as for tgb well the trainer must feel a right prat after giving it the big'n this morning. don't think we've seen the gold cup 1st 2nd or 3rd run today imo

Agree Brooksielad. Doubt the Gold Cup winner ran in the King George today.

Not saying he'll win it, but I'll be very surprised if Long Run's not in the first three in the Gold Cup.

Brooksielad 26 Dec 12 22:01 
grand cru ran quicker in the feltenham. I wouldn't look to much into the times. really surprised conti hasn't shortened for the gold cup. captain Chris pleasantly surprised me and could turn up in a national one day. pretty disappointed with kauto stone thought he was going to enjoy the ground but he just seemed to get swallowed up by it. cue card as expected and as for tgb well the trainer must feel a right prat after giving it the big'n this morning. don't think we've seen the gold cup 1st 2nd or 3rd run today imo


He did seem to win it very easily though, which in today's conditions was all the more impressive.

I wonder if Pipey will think about putting Dynaste in Gold Cup - considered it last year with Grands Crus and that one must be more likely for Ryanair now.

Gold Cup looks stronger this year so he may be more inclined to go novice route with Dynaste.

10 of the last 11 Gold Cup winners were 1st or 2nd in either The Lexus or King George,Bring on the Lexus as i can't see LR regaining the GC.

only about 18 months premature ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

judorick 19 Dec 12 11:56 Joined: 27 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 19,782 | Blogger: judorick's blog
It's always very interesting to see how people think about stuff and the comments they make

I've had Cue Card on my mind for quite some time now and have been reflecting on everything that has happened. My conclusions are that everything he has done in his entire racing career (which consists of just 13 races since 25 Jan 2010) has been preparation for this stage of his career. He is about to embark on what will be, his trainer thinks and hopes, a career as a top class steeplechaser and next week the King George is going to reveal plenty about him and his likely future. Drawing hard and fast conclusions based on what he has done so far hardly seems worthwhile, I think the best we can do is think about the spectrum of possibilities and rank them in order of likelihood. There are doubts about his stamina, from some quarters, and people already say 'he's a two and a half miler' and so on but I remind you that there were similar doubts about Best Mate at the same age (also won the Haldon Gold Cup on debut as a 6yo). I don't think anyone can say for sure but the trainer and jockey have no doubts that he will stay. They also report him as 'much stronger' which is entirely normal for a horse about to turn 7 years old.

My own opinion is that, on balance, the horse is more likely to end up a true Grade 1 staying chaser than anything else. The other possibility would be that he remains at intermediate trips and tries 3 miles now and then in King George. I think it extremely unlikely he will be tried at minimum distances. The collateral form is outstanding and I think we can already see that getting that close to Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle, over a trip too short, was an excellent effort. Indeed, Kicking King ran similarly when second to Well Chief in the Arkle and he went on to be a top staying chaser. With Al Ferof, Menorah (won a Grade 1), Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card himself all winning since the Arkle it really points to the strength of the form. Bobs Worth has of course also franked the form in no uncertain terms - we could argue all day about whether BW is better than CC as that issue is yet to be resolved. However, I do think the Arkle form is significantly stronger than the RSA chase form so it will be interesting to see how that progresses over the next couple of years.

I have not had a bet in the King George but I have taken up the 'ante post offer' from VictorBet which gives you a bet to the same amount if the horse does not run and I have backed Cue Card for the Gold Cup at 33/1. If CC wins the KG and the trainer then states his intention to go for the Gold Cup, and I think he will if happens, then surely CC will be trading somewhere near the head of the market. And if CC fails to stay then he surely won't run in the Gold Cup meaning I get to use the 'ante post offer' and stick the bet on another horse or race.

As I said earlier in the thread, I have looked back through the race all the way to 1980 and I have to say that Long Run is really the only horse that truly fits all the trends as a typical King George winner so I will not be surprised if he wins at all. Kauto Stone also fits quite a few of the trends (won more than 1 Grade 1 chase, won at 3 miles, won last time out etc) so he would continue the trend if he won. However, I'm hoping that Cue Card fulfills the other key trend that struck me when I was researching the last 30 odd years of the King George which is that this race has been the proving ground for top class horses. Time and again stars reveal the true extent of their ability, for the first time in their career, in the King George. Kicking King, Best Mate, See More Business, Desert Orchid, The Fellow, and I'm sure others, all displayed their class (and or ability to stay) here for the first time before going on to have fantastic careers. The race is a proving ground for stars and I'm hoping that everything Cue Card has done up to now has set him up to make a similar impact and that he turns out to be a truly top class horse. Hope I'm right, would be great to have another new superstar staying chaser around

Steeplechasing
Steeplechasing 26 Dec 12 17:19 Joined: 18 Jul 03 | Topic/replies: 819 | Blogger: Steeplechasing's blog
Well done LR backers.

Foyles, you got a great price but CC did not enjoy that from the outset - serious blunder at first, mistake at 2nd, took a bad bump turning away on first circuit which seemed to unsettle him even more. Must have had every chance of getting that trip on good ground; nothing went his way today (although he won at Exeter, he might well have a preference for going left handed) but you should get your cash back in Ryanair

It`s not all about you Judo and Steeplechasing actually pinpoints races.

BTW Foyles must think that it is Summer time in 2014

I know, it's Foyles thread, he takes the plaudits, had the vision from a long way out

just pointing out that I said 'the horse is more likely to end up a true Grade 1 staying chaser than anything else' well in advance of the KG, many were saying I never predicted he would stay 3 miles only yesterday, just providing the proof

I had totally forgotten about this thread, it was Foyles that bumped it.

You had less doubts than most Judo, that`s for sure.

I didn`t like the idea of Cue Card being restrained over the extended trip and in the KG last year they were up against it on heavy ground, perhaps they should have withdrawn him in hindsight it was too much for any 6 year old.

So you backed Cue Card at 33s for the gold cup of 2014 Judo or last year hence the 'about 18 months premature' remark?

judo had massive confidence and enthusiasm for the horse this season and he stuck to his guns so all credit to him and his work is beggining to bear fruit with some cracking  ante post odds on cue card ,hope you got some  k.george gold cup double odds judo .  touch wood we will have decent ground for king george and the horse will get the chance to show his true form, the early mistakes and being buzzed up ( they seem to have got that sorted now) didnt do the horse any favours last year also trying to jump out of bad ground he couldnt get into a natural rhythm ,now they know 100% he gets 3 miles  and on good to soft can see him pinging the kempton fences and getting a lot of the field at it a fair way from home.
thinking  about cue cards chance in the gold cup and the more i think about it the better his chance looks as bobs worth dont look as solid as he did on paper before the betfair. 8s is very fair for cue card as if he wins the king george he will be much shorter  and i think i will have some of that . bit of a speculative one i have also backed simonsig for the gold cup at massive odds  a lot of ifs buts and maybes but, connections may fancy their chances and one of a few with untapped potential and plenty of room for improvement .good luck

no seethe stars i put up the 18 months premature comment harking to last years king george, read thread .

ange gab well done on the ryanaire call , good insight .

It was Steeplechasing Foyleswar, not me.

I agree with you about Cue Card and the Gold Cup, when Kauto Star won the Betfair Chase he was a similar price for the Gold Cup and i have the same feeling for Cue Card now. He is still at a backable price because of preconceived ideas about his stamina, but if you look at the roll call of Betfair Chase winners they all had enough stamina for a Gold Cup.

Final field ratings:

Horse    Score
Long Run 92%
Captain Chris 62%
Kauto Stone 61%
Riverside Theatre 53%
Grands Crus 50%
Junior 45%
The Giant Bolster 44%
Champion Court 35%
Cue Card 35%
For Non Stop 34%

Selection: Long Run

The trends knew!