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I think he'll go up to about 166. He'd have been less inconvenienced by the ground than a few but he had a big weight and the first two pulled well clear. Proved his stamina, class and wellbeing.
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He always seemed to be a horse going a stride too fast for his own liking over 2 miles especially over fences. The beauty of a horse like his is that he is not ground dependent.
166 puts him only 2lb behind Long Run if we take your 10lb overrated deduction off Long Runs OR mark. Out of the two Al Ferof is improving so you are quite right in saying 8/1 is generous. |
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anyone heard if the gold cup has been mentioned as a target after the king george tia
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Owner has always thought of him as a Gold Cup horse in the making, though whether they'll take him this year is another matter. Personally I think they should
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Al Ferof and Silviniaco Conti is that they are both by Dom Alco.
These horses are not ground dependent at all. IF it comes up heavy they perform. They are both improving as they go up in distance. Nicholls is back in the KG/Gold Cup picture with these two. |
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personally don,t think kempton will suit AF and the same goes for SC with regards cheltenham
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Any reasoning behind those views alleged22?
I don`t see anything to suggest it myself. They are half brothers. |
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the trainer said last year that SC was a flat track horse, and i think that the KG will be his gold cup, nice break and a prep then next stop aintree, AF,s best performances have been at cheltenham, and i feel the ryanair via the peterborough chase and the 2m 3f race at ascot will the route if the trainer has his way, although j hales may have other ideas.....?
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It look as though AF will go the KG route.
Although connections have mentioned he is a horse who will need looking after. |
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this years king george looks like being the strongest for a good few years absolutly littered with grade 1 winners imagine this lot turning up, long run, al ferof ,sizing euro, cue card, silvinio conte finians rainbow, for non stop riverside theartre, sir deschamps ,the giant bolster .........i know its not likely they will all go but that will be some race to anticipate over christmass !
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Conti will win King George easy. Nicholls will have them both on the gallops together soon and after Conti gallops all over Al Ferof for the next few weeks I highly doubt he'll run Al Ferof. Once conti makes Long Run look like a mug expect Conti to trade at Evs for thr King George then move into Kauto's box in the new year.
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Silvianaco Conti will do well to be placed.
There are 3 or 4 better horses than him over 3m. |
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Would agree with that Mr E
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Silvianaco Conti will do well to be placed.
There are 3 or 4 better horses than him over 3m. Which 3 or 4 horses? |
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Grands Crus havin a breathing op
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Surely Cue Card is the value bet at 11 ? previously beaten Al Ferof.....
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dont think he will again,unless AF makes another ricket,or at least his jockey does.
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Agreed he won't......at Cheltenham.
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fair point
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Looks a great race if they all stand their ground. For Non Stop was seriously impressive at Aintree and a reproduction of that form must see him there or thereabouts. The Amlin on Saturday should be big pointer to the KG with Non Stop,Finians,Ghizao and the enigmatic
Captain Chris declared. I fancied CC for the KG last term as im sure he needs to go righthanded to be seen at his best Reported to be working and more importantly jumping well at home but still only a lunatic would back him for the KG now without seeing how he jumps on his seasonal debut. So,true to form I have backed him already at 34's. A leap of faith I know, but hoping his matured and with intense schooling and a bit of help from Yogi we may see a significant difference from last season |
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cue card is going for the peterborugh chase which is only 2 weeks before the King george so he surely wont be running on Boxing day?
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well they said its an option ,
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I'd be worried for the staying div if captain chris won the King George
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Dont worry Brooksie!
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been spending lot of time going back over the King George over many years right back into the 80s and there are a couple of things that stand out to me that I would like to comment on:
1. Type of winner: there are basically two (main) types of winner which can be broken down into young up and comers aged 6 or 7 that have shown high class form in Grade 1 races and established older performers that have already won top class championship chases 2. Whichever type of winner they are they invariably won on their start immediately prior to winning the King George. Several of the younger types won handicaps on their start before the King George like See More Business who won the Rehearsal. 3. The betting market has proven a good guide with 17 of the last 20 winners winning at less than 10/1. 4. Only 3 times in the last 25 renewals has the winner not previously won a chase over 3 miles prior to winning the King George. However, I have been unable to determine, due to the workload involved, how many of the runners had never won a 3 mile chase and therefore can't work out what the expectation of them winning should be. I might have a go at that this week. 5. The younger types that won the race were all rated at least 159 prior to the race but ended up much higher later. They had appeared to show form that would indicate they had improvement to come (winning easily, wide margins, impressive displays etc). 6. The established stars group consists of Long Run, Sizing Europe, Riverside Theatre, Albertas Run and Finians Rainbow (Grade 1 winners). Captain Chris won the Arkle in 2011 but has not yet established himself as a Grade 1 chaser in my opinion but he did win a lower grade race on seasonal reappearance. 7. Nearly every winner of the race I can find had had a run no more than 8 weeks prior to the King George. Winning on seasonal debut has proven nigh on impossible. I haven't drawn any conclusions for sure as yet. It's pretty easier to decide whether the runners fall in to the 'up and comer' or 'established star' categories (or in fact fail to fit into either in which case I will rule them out as not being a typical winner) and I will do that next. Also will put them into 'won last time' and 'did not win last time' groups. And the 'had a run' and 'not had run' groups. When I've done all that it might make it a bit clearer but really going to be tricky with a whole bunch of up and comers to assess. |
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Interesting points and if you follow those points, it would seem to direct you towards Long Run who falls down on not winning his previous race but neither did he when he won it.
Of course if SDC wins the Durkan and Mullins send him over he will hit all the trends you mention and would be far the most likely winner imo though I'd be surprised if he comes over. This year's renewal looks like one not to get too hung up about trends. |
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who knows whether the trends I've spotted will have any bearing on the actual result? I am only using them to narrow the field down to a shortlist of contenders that I can be confident has a high chance of containing the winner. From that I will a betting decision which could be anything from a simple win lay to multiple place lays, A v B bets or whatever stikes me as the way to go once I complete my analysis. I haven't even considered ratings and collateral form yet
'getting hung up' is not really what trend analysis is about |
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Maybe 'hung up' was not the right choice of words and I wouldn't try and detract from how anyone reaches their conclusions, that is for each individual.
Away from Cheltenham I am not a stats/trends person at all unless there is a particularly good reason for it. The only point I was trying to make is that with the trends you have found unless SDC comes over, the winner is going to be a significant trend buster. I am not sure therefore how anyone can narrow the list down on that basis. I see from this and other threads that you are a Cue Card fan and hopeful for his chances in the race? Yet there will be at least one huge trend he has to overcome. As I say each to their own but actually your findings have confirmed that the best way for me to approach the race is to identify a likely winner or two that are priced ok. One of those will likely be Cue Card but I will leave him alone if indeed he runs at Huntingdon. |
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yes you can't always have a winner that fits all the trends, especially if none of the runners do!
I will say that I will be surprised to say the least if the winner has not had a run this season so I will start my shortlist by eliminating seasonal debutants. Agree re Cue Card. If he runs in the Peterborough he will be an instant discard, think it would be a mistake to run there. I am more 'excited by his potential' at this stage as I am unsure of how good he will become. I an 'fan' of Sprinter Sacre because I have been convinced that he is a genuine monster for a long time |
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Cue Card and Al Ferof are doubtful stayers. Long Run and Riverside Theatre for me
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RT stay 3m then?
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Also RT nearly got killed in the Ryanair,and then at Aintree ran like he had been!!
I would be careful with this one,certainly till weve seen him this season. |
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winning this without a run has proved very difficult and RT has not been out, seems an unlikely winner, I will be ruling him out
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anyone any idea of al ferof and cue cards new marks ?
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Cue Card 165 I know
Al Ferof 168 I think |
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Mordin take on al ferof win....
KING GEORGE A BAD IDEA FOR AL FEROF AL FEROF (40) clocked a good time off a searching early gallop when winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup. But neither his dam or grandam have ever produced a winner beyond the 2m 4.5f of the race and I don't think Al Ferof is likely to change that if he takes up his entry in the King George. The big worry on this score is that Al Ferof was very tired in the closing stages and had to be driven right out to keep going on the run in. He actually took 1.3 seconds longer to get from the last to the finish than in the marathon chase on the same card won by Monbeg Dude over 7f longer. And he took 4.1 seconds longer to get from the last to the finish than Dynaste did in the novice chase over the same distance on the Friday. (I estimate that if the going had been the same on both days he'd have taken 3.6 seconds longer.) You could argue that it was the fast early pace that caused Al Ferof to tire so badly. But if he had serious prospects of staying three miles he would have finished his race out much more strongly. In addition the early pace is almost always seriously fast in the King George as well. Al Ferof has now won six of his last nine races. In the first of his losses he ran a good third when attempting to become the first novice to beat experienced rivals in a Grade 1 chase. In the second he faced an impossible task against the freakishly fast pair Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card in the Arkle where he stopped to get beat 32 lengths. And in his other loss he may well have been feeling the effects of that taxing effort when a disappointing third at the Aintree Festival. That's an impressive record. But it doesn't make Al Ferof a three mile chaser. It seems to me that the logical way to go with him is to stick to two and a half mile chases. My ratings say that the top two and a half mile chasers last season were truly dreadful They also indicate that we have some exceptional two and three mile chasers this season. So if Al Ferof stays at two and a half miles he'd have a shot of winning a Grade 1 chase this term. In any event, my ratings also indicate that Al Ferof is simply not fast enough to have a realistic chance in the King George even if he did stay the distance. On balance therefore it is surely a race to avoid with the horse. |
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glad i never read his stuff!!
load of old sh!te imo!!!! in particulat the bit about the Arkle,actually no,it was all cr&p. |
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interestingly See More Business, Kicking King, Best Mate and Long Run were all rated 159 when they first ran in the King George and all ended up that season rated at least a stone higher on marks in the mid to high 170s
so with AF and CC both already rated 165+ it will be interesting to see how much higher they can go. Of course there are other promising second season chasers like Sir Des Champs (162) in the race |
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cheers for the ratings judo
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cheers for the ratings judo
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