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@markphisto I have thought this for weeks. I have backed Bonfire at 8/1, 8/1, 11/2 and 5/1 all with the same firm and E/W. Didn't look like there was going to be a lot of runners and think he will be suited by the way the race is run. There are some very average horses in the derby and he isn't one of them.
Obviously Camelot could be anything and is still the top rated horse in the race but was happy to take a few decent place prices. May try and lay off in-running as the Guineas still looked a good trial to me and I can see a situation in which Bonfire is picked up by Camelot late on but trades shorter in-running. |
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i can see bonfire cruising 2 out, will trade shorter, im sure youll get out at around 5/2, im not saying he wont win
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Be a very tactical battle. Looking at Camelot's sectional times for the guineas he seems to have plenty left in the tank going into the last two furlongs, he really accelerates between 2f and the winning post. Be great if the same information was available for the Dante as well although ground was completely different.
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Camelot & Bonfire look the two class acts in the race, looks a gd 1/2 forecast.
I hope & expect Camelot to win well. |
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@elisjohn hard to know with Ballydoyle. Could be (1) Camelot much better than the rest at Ballydoyle (2) don't think they need a furious pace to bring out the best in him (and give him a harder race than may be necessary) (3) don't want to beat him with one their own (least likely IMO)
The only worry I can think of re Camelot (bar Bonfire possibly being better!) is that a lot of horses who ran well in both Guineas have disappointed since. Race times at Newmarket indicate that the ground was much softer than described and maybe these horses had very hard races. Not a fan of betting odds on unless I feel its absolutely nailed on and still provides value, therefore its Bonfire e/w for me |
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I'd think O'Briens two will fight it out for 1st and 2nd, with the Gosden horse filling the places. The main concern for any Astrology backers is whether or not all of their tools are in one box. Some will say that they aren't afraid to let their horses beat one another, but there are mitigating circumstances this time. We will see what happens.
1 - Camelot 2 & 3rd coming from Astrology & Thought Worthy |
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btw...thought worthy is still 16s which seems quite big. Incidentally, this race doesn't seem to be capturing anyones imagination. Has there ever been a derby with so little attention or care ?
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Have to agree graeme, as far as the betting goes. I have Camelot 7lbs clear. Think the only thing that can beat him is if the Guineas took the edge off him, I've seen it happen before which is why I wouldn't take such a short price, can't see anything worth taking him on with though either.
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Your 7lb clear may be right Figgis. I just can't see Bonfire or Main Sequence being anywhere near good enough. Astrology looks a good horse in his own right, and Thought Worthy should stay on. I'd have Camelot as 1/2, Astrology 11/2, Thought Worthy 8/1, Bonfire 10/1, Main Sequence 16/1 and 25s bar.
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PURE CLASS
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Different class alright
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Different class to the rest but then the rest are only Group 3 standard so doubt he can rated all that highly on the official figures.
Bar Camelot the 3 year old crop looks pretty dire (colts and fillies) and the trouble is most of the really good horses he could take on over 10-12f are owned by Coolmore (St Nicolas Abbey, So You Think etc) so unless something emerges from the French Derby tomorrow (and that may be another Coolmore horse in Imperial Monarch) the Irish Derby and St Leger are looking penalty kicks for him if that's how they choose to play it. |
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