Horse Antepost
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Seems to be a lot of weary looking performers entered , a number of whom will not run.
One horse who has this as a specific target is DOVERS HILL. Last time course win from Ballyfoy and Auroras Encoure has worked out well.
Expect this to be nearly favourite by Saturday.
One horse who has this as a specific target is DOVERS HILL. Last time course win from Ballyfoy and Auroras Encoure has worked out well.
Expect this to be nearly favourite by Saturday.
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Dovers Hill 16/1 - form of last win could nt have worked out any better, a 5lbs rise is fair
Swing Bill 40/1 - Droppin down a few lbs in the handicap and is priced on his last 2 runs in the GN and at Chelt - massively impressive winner at Chelt from just 4lbs less d end of last year As u say we are guessin with the runners but they are my 2 plays  |
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Swing bill found all sorts of trouble in the national and ran a cracker. I can't see it running well in this if it turns up so close to such a hard race.
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Since his win at the course last month Dover's Hill has been on my radar for this and under normal underfoot conditions I would agree about him starting favourite. However, with all the rain forecast, he could be vulnerable (definite good ground performer). I know the chase course does ride faster but there really is alot of the wet stuff on the way. Le Beau Bai could get his conditions and comes here a relatively fresh horse and could be the one to beat.
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I can remember when decent animals ran in this race and often won it.
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More rains gotta mean its Tidal Bay time
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Back it to place ir only!
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Tidal Bay (IRE) 16 11 11-4 P F Nicholls 154
Deep Purple 14 11 11-2 Evan Williams 152 West End Rocker (IRE) 14 10 10-13 A King 149 Rare Bob (IRE) 14 10 10-9 D T Hughes 145 Galaxy Rock (IRE) 7 8 10-8 Jonjo O'Neill 144 Tullamore Dew (IRE) 14 10 10-6 N J Gifford 142 Le Beau Bai (FR) 70 9 10-4 R Lee 140 Dover's Hill 49 10 10-3 Mrs Mary Hambro 134 Ouzbeck (FR) 35 10 10-2 Miss E C Lavelle 138 Swing Bill (FR) 14 11 10-2 D Pipe 138 Vic Venturi (IRE) 14 12 10-1 D T Hughes 144 Viking Blond (FR) 14 7 9-13 N A Twiston-Davies 135 Enter Paradise (IRE) 43 8 9-12 C J Mann 134 Roalco De Farges (FR) 14 7 9-12 P J Hobbs 134 Major Malarkey (IRE) 42 9 9-11 N A Twiston-Davies 128 Your Busy (IRE) 27 9 9-10 J A Nash 129 Any Currency (IRE) 7 9 9-9 M Keighley 131 Qianshan Leader (IRE) 91 8 9-9 Miss E C Lavelle 133 Aldertune (IRE) 49 8 9-7 P F Nicholls 126 Pilgrims Lane (IRE) 138 8 9-6 M Keighley 129 Knighton Combe 27 12 9-5 Jamie Snowden 127 Free World (IRE) 167 10 9-1 W J Greatrex 123 Ethiopia 11 9 8-10 R H Buckler 118 Upham Atom 23 9 8-10 Mrs K A Buckett 118 Mumbles Head (IRE) 13 11 7-7 P Bowen 101 |
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DOVERS HILL and LE BEAU BAI are my shortlisted two at this stage.
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Il av to add LBB with the forecast given!
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tidal bay must carry 11-12 surely
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Ya weights nt been adjusted yet, they are the remaining entries!
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Sodt or heavy ground would rule out most of the field imo. I would have it between West End Rocker and Le Beau Bai if that's the case. Tidal Bay does have a good soft ground record but I just can't be backing him.
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Have backed MAJOR MALARKEY @ 10/1, seems to handle most ground (won at chepstow on soft) and was a 6 lenth 5th in this race last year off 5lb lower, if it looks likely tobe heavy will add le beau bai also.
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No winning favourite for 11 years. 8 of last 11 winners priced in double figures. Highest rated winner - 153 (carried 10-13) - Monkerhostin, aged 11. Next highest; 152 (carried 11-5) Lacdoudal aged 7. 11-5 biggest weight to win this. Lowest rated winner - 129 (carried 10-0), next 132 (carried 10-7). 8 out of 10 carried less than 11 stone to win this. 8 out of 10 won at 3m+ Only 3 out of 10 had a top 2 finish last time. 4 out of 10 failed to finish last time. 5 out of 10 ran in a National last time. Longest gap since last run - 46 day - Monkerhostin - had run in the William Hill. |
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Monkerhostin
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Did the 4 who failed to finish LTO also run in the National last time?
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Aldertune looks to have been laid out for this. Given two prep runs at Sandown, last one over an unsuitable distance to help sharpen his jumping, will creep in off 10stone (possibly a pound wrong, but not worried about that). Has won on all types of ground and will be fresh. 16-1 first four at this stage, when likely to be about 13-15 runners is a good bet imo
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Looks soft at best with what's coming in over the week. Dovers Hill and Ouzbeck may as well stay at home on soft. Le Beau Bai is the standout and with the director of the sponsors having a share i can see him showing up on soft. A must bet at 12's. 6's likely sp. Roalco De Farges would have to be other one given the Hobbs record.
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If the weather forecast is to be believed, then LBB is a massive price, nothing else goes on Heavy, even soft will have most of them in trouble.
Also one I expect to shorten up massively from current prices is Aldertune, Nicholls & Walsh off bottom weight in a big handicap, surely that combination is enough to send it to the head of the market should it be declared? |
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You sure it will be heavy ground? It says good now and Wednesday is the only day with a lot of rain.
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I had Aldertune down as a bit of a non stayer over the extreme distance. Although horses around him that day at fontwell have gone on to win a race after. Major Marlarky is worse off with Planet of Sound now than when he finished behind him over CD.
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planet of sound isnt running
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I mean Deep Purple not Planet of Sound. Always get them mixed up. Prob coz his silks are purple.
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no problem i find it a very tricky handicap on genuine good ground i fancy dovers hill and at a big price your busy on soft ground i could see viking blond running a big race even though it looks as though major malarkey is their 1st string
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SANDOWN PARK - Flat (Updated:24/04/2012 at 10:21:32)
Going Soft Stalls Sprint Course - Far Side Weather 6mm rain Monday and overnight. Showers Tuesday then up to 10mm Wednesday. Remainder of week staying unsettled. |
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It will be at its softest on Wednesday night so we'll know Thursday morning how bad the ground will be, the showers on Thursday, Friday and Saturday are likely to keep the ground as it is from Thursday morning onwards, not making it any softer but preventing it from drying out.
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Could be up to an inch falling tomorrow
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Gd/sft, good places as of 4.30pm. Must be a real test this now. 10's Le Beau Bai still looks good value.
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Agreed
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Le Beau Bai added this mornin at 12s - will go off 5s if the expected weather arrives
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yep also added le beau bai at 12's this morning, have major malarkey also at 10-1, its also forcast to be pretty damp on thursday to.
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Le Beau Bai it is then ! We seem to be agreed. Is this another 'Merigo scenario'?
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Same result too hopefully
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isnt lbb best form all on left handed tracks,plus dont think the fences down the back will suit,just some thoughts,seems your backing him on ground only
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2 wins (in Class 1 and 2 races) in last 3 runs,is a good enough KPI for me.
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agree with '1st time poster', not sure Le Beau Bai will jump well enough out the back, no form on rh tracks. Had a long season as well - in terms of on the go since early. I will let this one run.
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is going right handed an issue for le beau bai?
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it has won RH before - but pretty sure trainer has maintained for a while he needs to go RH. Regardless its a big ask for a horse thats been on the go since October, and was probably ticking over in hope of a soft ground national so hardly had a break as such.
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LBB has been a big improver this year. This twaddle about having to go left handed is not how the form reads. The big problem is that he needs it bottomless to be seen at his best. He should race close to the pace and I don't see the track being an issue as he likes undulations and is a sound jumper (never fallen). The trainer had a winner last week and most of the field don't like the ground or its an after thought. Plenty of rain tomorrow and he will be favourite. I've taken the price based on a heavy, soft in places description. Lets be honest, Sandown is not a good drainer.
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