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El Apache
22 Apr 12 12:05
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Date Joined: 19 Jan 05
| Topic/replies: 667 | Blogger: El Apache's blog
Seems to be a lot of weary looking performers entered , a number of whom will not run.

One horse who has this as a specific target is DOVERS HILL. Last time course win from Ballyfoy and Auroras Encoure has worked out well.

Expect this to be nearly favourite by Saturday.
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Report proctor strikes April 24, 2012 8:55 PM BST
agree with '1st time poster', not sure Le Beau Bai will jump well enough out the back, no form on rh tracks. Had a long season as well - in terms of on the go since early. I will let this one run.
Report kingrat April 24, 2012 8:59 PM BST
is going right handed an issue for le beau bai?
Report proctor strikes April 24, 2012 9:11 PM BST
it has won RH before - but pretty sure trainer has maintained for a while he needs to go RH. Regardless its a big ask for a horse thats been on the go since October, and was probably ticking over in hope of a soft ground national so hardly had a break as such.
Report Reefer 2001 April 24, 2012 9:55 PM BST
LBB has been a big improver this year.  This twaddle about having to go left handed is not how the form reads.  The big problem is that he needs it bottomless to be seen at his best.  He should race close to the pace and I don't see the track being an issue as he likes undulations and is a sound jumper (never fallen). The trainer had a winner last week and most of the field don't like the ground or its an after thought. Plenty of rain tomorrow and he will be favourite.  I've taken the price based on a heavy, soft in places description.  Lets be honest, Sandown is not a good drainer.
Report Showrunner1 April 24, 2012 10:09 PM BST
going r h wont be a problem has won at carlisle and exeter but i am not sure the seven fences in quick succession will suit him
Report kingrat April 24, 2012 10:25 PM BST
i disagree,going rh is a serious negatinve and i am laying lbb for a place.
Report GoldCupWinner April 24, 2012 10:48 PM BST
His RH form doesn't seem to be worrying. Not ran that way too many times but has won and finished second. Won twice RH in bumpers too if that has any significance.
Report buddeliea April 25, 2012 7:41 AM BST
will it be on???
Report roobuck April 25, 2012 7:54 AM BST
I think LBB prefers going left handed though not too concerned about it. The likely going and distance look right up his street, as long as there a couple of showers after today's heavy rain to prevent the ground going sticky.

However the Railway fences will pose a problem as whilst he hasn't fallen, LBB is not the most fluent jumper and Sandown is very much a rhythm track. That being said as I love the horse still played at 10s to small stakes and as I cannot see anything else I shall leave it at that
Report BritBronco April 25, 2012 10:00 AM BST
I got on the 12s on Monday night, but I'm not convinced the ground will be soft enough.
There seems to be a big belief the ground will be heavy, but I think a lot of people are looking at the flat course going description (soft) and not the chase course. As of Tuesday 3.00pm the chase course was still G/S, Good in place. It was 1.4 better on the going stick than the flat course.
I eagerly await the updated going stick readings (hopefully later today), but I don't think heavy is a sure thing.
Report BJG April 25, 2012 10:05 AM BST
Bucketing down today
Report BJG April 25, 2012 11:15 AM BST
Mite nt be on at all Confused

Hereford and Epsom doubtful already today due to massive downpiurs
Report Facts April 25, 2012 11:28 AM BST
LBB now clear favourite in the betting.
Report BJG April 25, 2012 1:36 PM BST
Todays Sandown going report must be a secret, cant find any update!
Report GoldCupWinner April 25, 2012 2:27 PM BST
West End Rockers form going right handed doesn't look too clever.
Report BritBronco April 25, 2012 3:38 PM BST
I sent Sandown Park a tweet to ask about the going... no reply. I guess they will update later this afternoon, yesterday's update was at 4pm, so maybe the same today.
Report BJG April 25, 2012 3:46 PM BST
Ive sent a few and so have a few others too, all with no response either!
Report BritBronco April 25, 2012 4:20 PM BST
Could be too heavy to race on the flat course, but ok for the jumps. Would the card still go ahead with 4 races??

I think it will be ok, they won't cancel a meeting of this profile unless the course is underwater!
Report Reefer 2001 April 25, 2012 4:47 PM BST
Well the news is in and its not great for LBB backers.  24mm equates to gd/sft, sft places.  Hard to believe.
Report buddeliea April 25, 2012 4:56 PM BST
the race is on saturday,still 3 days of potential rain,and to be honest i too find it hard to believe,and the fact their is still good in the description amazes me.
Report John.W.Henry. April 25, 2012 5:01 PM BST
The going stick reading nor the description changed even after an inch of rain.... someone is telling a few porkies .. lol
Report Facts April 25, 2012 5:16 PM BST
No fear about ground not being right - LBB is the one.
Report BJG April 25, 2012 5:19 PM BST
Sandown Park ‏ @Sandownpark  Reply  Retweet  Favorite · Open
GOING UPDATE-Jump track good-soft, soft in places. Flat course heavy. Going has eased after the morning rain

Sandown Park ‏ @Sandownpark  Reply  Retweet  Favorite · Open
The worst of the rain has now passed through Esher @Sandownpark



PlainPlainSad
Report GoldCupWinner April 25, 2012 5:25 PM BST
Anyone give Tullamore Drew a chance? 1lb lower than when running Massini's Maguires. That race has worked out very well. Obv there are worries about him being over the top and also the distance but price compensates.
Report Meat Loaf April 25, 2012 5:28 PM BST
Tullamore Dew has possibly ran one too many races this year.

I would suggest Rare Bob is a decent bet at a price.
Report GoldCupWinner April 25, 2012 5:56 PM BST
Agree with Rare Bob. Only thing putting me off him was that I thought it was going to be heavy. If that doesn't turn out to be the case will probably back him. Esecially if good is in the description. I know he has some form on heavy but trainer been quoted as saying he wants better ground than that.
Report PFtrader April 25, 2012 5:57 PM BST
Shocking renewal, bad ground, best avoided
Report BJG April 25, 2012 7:36 PM BST
WE ALL needed our waterproofs on the gallops at Barbury on Wednesday, but neither Alan nor Wayne (Hutchinson) were complaining about getting soaked as they heard that Sandown, where the mud-loving West End Rocker is due to sign our season off in the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on Saturday, was also getting rain aplenty.
    Just 4mm fell overnight on the Esher slopes, but the word from clerk of the course Andrew Cooper at breakfast-time was that it had started raining heavily again and that anything between 10-15mm could hit Sandown by early afternoon.
Obviously, as always at Sandown the Flat course will ride much softer than the jumps track, but it looks like being ideal for ‘Rocker’, who was out on the gallops with Wayne this morning.
    Alan said: “‘Rocker’ has bounced back well from Aintree. He just got in too tight at the second fence and that was that, but there were 10 minutes or so of real anxiety as he ran loose and we did not know where he was.
“Happily, he was soon reunited with the team and came back unscathed, and he went fine this morning, so we just hope that it keeps on raining over the next 72 hours or so.”
    ‘Rocker’ has never won right-handed – he has run his best races at Aintree, Warwick and Newbury – but he ran well enough over hurdles at Taunton as a novice to suggest that it won’t be a problem.
Report harchibald April 25, 2012 8:34 PM BST
ROALCO DE FARGES for whom this is the plan, is 14/1. Would advise win bet.
Report IC superstar April 25, 2012 11:15 PM BST
This looks a really trappy race, pure and simple! I have looked over the field a number of times and I keep coming to the conclusion that it's the kind of race that will produce a surprise. But who will it be? Personally I think it might be Viking Blond, but I will address his chances in a moment.

I've backed Le Beau Bai in every race this season and he just strikes me as the sort to not relish the test that Sandown offers. He needs it bottomless and I'm not sure it will be (I live near the course and the heavy rain stopped at about 3. Since then it hasn't been heavy rain. Not raining as I write this, just very windy). He is a very talented horse and his form this season is rock solid. My issue lies with the view that I think the pace of the race will be too quick for him. I realise it is a marathon test but I just get the feeling that he will be getting niggled as they go out for the final time and the quick succession of railway fences will be his undoing. The more I think about it, he could do the job and I'd be happy for him. But from a betting perspective I'm going with my gut.

Vic Venturi could be interesting at 40/1 through his form with Follow The Plan, but his form has been patchy of late

I've always thought Viking Blond is capable of winning a decent prize this season and this could be it. While Sam is not on board which is a negative, he has been dropped to quite a workable mark of 135. He'll like the ground and the distance and his jumps like he did earlier in the season he will handle the railway fences. He makes for a fair degree of appeal at 25/1

Any Currency would be my idea of the winner had he not run at Ayr last weekend. For this reason I'm inclined to swerve him

Aldertune does look an interesting sort but watching his last few races this season he appears to be very ungenuine, he doesn't like going past horses


That is my view of the race. It does appear to be somewhat of a no bet race. However I just can't get the idea of Viking Blond winning out of my head
Report IC superstar April 25, 2012 11:17 PM BST
Apologies, my bit on the Viking should read as follows:

I've always thought Viking Blond is capable of winning a decent prize this season and this could be it. While Sam is not on board which is a negative, he has been dropped to quite a workable mark of 135. He'll like the ground and the distance and if he jumps like he did earlier in the season he will handle the railway fences. He makes for a fair degree of appeal at 25/1
Report kingrat April 26, 2012 1:16 AM BST
i cant have viking blond,i think hes over the top and any way ican c his jumping going to pot at this track.i agree with your reasons for opposing lbb plus i think going rh is a negative,i am laying him for a place.i really like aldertune,track ground trip no problem,jumps lovely.imo hes an e.w good thing and will have a decent cut on him.i wonder who will ride him?gl
Report boy wonder 07 April 26, 2012 7:45 AM BST
i agree i c s viking blond is overpriced at 25 his form early in the season gives him a big chance here dont forget he went off fav for the welsh nat twiston in rich vein of form i have already started nibbling at 28 on here
Report GoldCupWinner April 26, 2012 9:15 AM BST
Tidal Bay has a very good record on soft ground or worse. Has finished 2nd At Sandown before over 2 miles... shapes like he'll stay but hasn't proved it as such.
Report BritBronco April 26, 2012 12:29 PM BST
The going stick readings were updated on the bhb website this morning.

4.9 (Heavy) on the Flat course, but amazingly on 6.8 on the chase course! Still Good to Soft, soft in place.
Report GoldCupWinner April 26, 2012 3:11 PM BST
When do bookies go NRNB? Will it be now or tomorrow?
Report turnip turns April 26, 2012 3:34 PM BST
tomoz afternoon,after the final decs are announced .
Report Reefer 2001 April 26, 2012 6:05 PM BST
Now Soft, gd/sft in places after 4mm.  Not much rain forecast now.  So soft at worst.
Report SOULDANCER April 26, 2012 7:03 PM BST
Knighton Combe 33-1 e.w. won last time and 4lb lower now, only 9-10 on his back. Won the Summer National acts on soft and hasn't had a busy season so is fresher than most.
Report turnip turns April 26, 2012 7:06 PM BST
SANDOWN PARK - Mixed (Updated:26/04/2012 at 16:03:59)   
Going
Chase - Soft, Good to Soft in places
Hurdle - Soft, Good to Soft in places
Flat - Heavy
(GoingStick: Flat 4.9 Chase 6.2 Hurdle 5.3 on Thursday at 15:00)
Report El Apache April 26, 2012 7:53 PM BST
Given my wager on Dovers Hill appears to have gone down the Armitage Shanks, have saved on Knighton Combe. Love the jockey booking.
Report GoldCupWinner April 26, 2012 8:03 PM BST
Sorry for novice question but does jockey booking mean he will carry 9 st 9lb or has his allowance already been taken into account?
Report IC superstar April 26, 2012 8:14 PM BST
It has been a nice afternoon in Esher. No rain and plenty of wind so it may have taken a fair bit of the surface water off the track, and therefore it may not have got into the ground.

Even though the ground is not soft or heavy, it will still be testing as Sandown's drainage is usually pretty poor. Still don't think it is what Le Beau needs.
Report carvillshill April 27, 2012 12:20 AM BST
Agree with a lot you've said IC super. I think the soft ground horses have been overbet for a race likely to be run on no worse than good to soft going. Am also on Viking Blond- he got very buzzed up before the Welsh National and raced too keenly, forget that run. Good jumper, not out of this at 25/1. Had to back my National plunge Rare Bob as well at 20/1- has had a light season geared to the National and very well in compared to West End Rocker on more decent ground on their Beecher running.
Report apieceofcake April 27, 2012 12:26 AM BST
GoldCupWinner Joined: 16 Jun 11
Replies: 456 26 Apr 12 20:03   

Sorry for novice question but does jockey booking mean he will carry 9 st 9lb or has his allowance already been taken into account?


The allowance has not been taken off yet but after the race the formbook will show as 9st8lb carried, provided the jockey can do the weight
Report GoldCupWinner April 27, 2012 12:29 AM BST
Thank you!
Report apieceofcake April 27, 2012 12:42 AM BST
No prob, good luck btw
Report GoldCupWinner April 27, 2012 7:21 AM BST
Thx again and you too. I'm trying to learn as much about racing as some of the shrewdies on here.

Another question about Knighton if anyone will answer. It says long handicap 9-13 so I assume that mean he will be allotted 10 stone and be running 1lb out the handicap but the jockey brings that down 5lb to 9st 9lb. It also says he is officially rated 132 and he's running here off 127 does that mean he's effectively 10lb well in? That's assuming a competent jockey.

I personally think 132 is a high mark to assess him on since he is 12 and has never won off a mark that high but just wondering if that's how it works.
Report Facts April 27, 2012 9:39 AM BST
LBB - keep the faith Happy
Report turnip turns April 27, 2012 12:19 PM BST
No.         Form    Horse    Age    Wt    Trainer    Jockey    OR    NagMe
1        6U-3254    Tidal Bay (IRE) 16    11     11-12    P F Nicholls    D A Jacob     154   
2        U34-1FP    Deep Purple 14      11     11-10    Evan Williams    Paul Moloney     152   
3        1PB-P1F    West End Rocker (IRE) 14      10     11-7    A King    W Hutchinson     149   
4        45053B-    Rare Bob (IRE) 14    10     11-3 v1    D T Hughes    P J Brennan     145   
5        31P43P    Galaxy Rock (IRE) 7    8     11-2 b    Jonjo O'Neill    D C Costello     144   
6        94U20P-    Tullamore Dew (IRE) 14    10     11-0 p    N J Gifford    D F O'Regan     142   
7        0P7113    Le Beau Bai (FR) 70      9     10-12 b    R Lee    J E Moore     140   
8        11/U861-    Dover's Hill 49      10     10-11 t    Mrs Mary Hambro    S Thomas     139   
9        80/5432-    Ouzbeck (FR) 35    10     10-10    Miss E C Lavelle    D Elsworth     138   
10        13P200-    Swing Bill (FR) 14    11     10-10 p    D Pipe    T J Murphy     138   
11        B-2110R    Vic Venturi (IRE) 14    12     10-9 v1    D T Hughes    J M Maguire     137   
12        143P5F-    Viking Blond (FR) 14    7     10-7 b    N A Twiston-Davies    William Twiston-Davies (7)     135   
13        136251-    Roalco De Farges (FR) 14    7     10-6    P J Hobbs    R Johnson     134   
14        11-121U    Enter Paradise (IRE) 43    8     10-6    C J Mann    D Crosse     134   
15        U5/54P2-    Major Malarkey (IRE) 42    9     10-5    N A Twiston-Davies    S Twiston-Davies     133   
16        2-3P478    Any Currency (IRE) 7      9     10-3 e    M Keighley    Aidan Coleman     131   
17        24P222    Aldertune (IRE) 49    8     10-1 t1    P F Nicholls    Nick Scholfield     129   
18        148461    Knighton Combe 27    12     10-0 p    Jamie Snowden    Brendan Powell (5)     127   
19        7-412PP    Free World (IRE) 167    10     10-0    W Greatrex    T Scudamore     123   
20        413PF4-    Ethiopia 11    9     10-0 b    R H Buckler    James Best (5)     118
Report buddeliea April 27, 2012 12:47 PM BST
Reckon numbers 1,2 and 4 are the ones to be on TT.

Backed Rare Bob on here,and will look at the other 2 at the course.
Report turnip turns April 27, 2012 12:51 PM BST
Yeah you would ydcLaugh
Report boy wonder 07 April 27, 2012 12:54 PM BST
VIKING BLOND 7lb claim gives him massive chance
Report Wicketd April 27, 2012 12:55 PM BST
swing bill at 25s for me. gets trip, likes ground, low weight. Love
Report Racecaller08 April 27, 2012 1:18 PM BST
Trends for the past 10 runnings of Bet365 Gold Cup (http://tinyurl.com/dyww4pr), French bred horses do well:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-2-9
7yo: 1-6-22
8yo: 4-7-41
9yo: 1-3-38
10yo: 1-3-34
11yo: 2-6-19
12yo+: 0-1-8
Horses aged 6 to 8: 6-16-74
Horses aged 9+: 4-12-104
Younger horses have held the call in this, with 6 of 10 winners being aged 6 to 8.
Of the 4 winners aged 9+, 3 had won a grade 2 or 3 chase previously and the other had won the Grade B Troytown Chase and was runner-up in the Irish Grand National on previous start.

Breeding
French Bred: 4-19-60
Irish bred: 4-5-82
British bred: 1-4-23
USA bred: 1-0-4
Other: 0-0-2
Over past 8 years French breds have a record of 4-17-48, which compares well to horses bred in all other countries, combined record of 4-5-87. French bred horses have filled 21 of 30 places since 2004 and they represented only 35.6% of the total runners.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-7 or more: 7-17-90
Horses carrying 10-6 or less: 3-11-81
7 of 10 winners carried 10-7 or more from approximately 52.6% of total runners.
Top Weight: 07PF030P4P (0-2-10)
Both horses allotted top weight to make the frame were ridden by 7lb claimers

Official Ratings
Horses rated 146 or higher: 2-6-33
Horses rated 132 to 145: 8-17-104
Horses rated 131 or lower: 0-5-34
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 132 to 145, though they have represented approximately 60.8% of the total runners.
Horses racing from out of the handicap: 2-4-34

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in first 6 on last completed chase start
8 of 10 winners had last chase start in a graded contest (2 exceptions ran in class 2 chase worth 30K+)
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days.
10 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that season
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M 1F+
8 of 10 winners had run in 9 or fewer handicap chases (2 exceptions finished 4th in previous year's race)
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
7 of 10 winners had run in a novice chase that season or previous season
3 of 10 winners were novice chasers
9 of 10 winners won a race worth 20K+
7 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded race (2 of 3 exceptions had won a chase worth 40K+)

Other Races
Previous season's winner: 4659P (0-0-5)
Highest placed finisher from last year to return: 465F93P3P (0-3-9)
Rewards4Racing Handicap Chase winner (Galaxy Rock): 20P3 (0-2-4)
Mobile Betting At paddypower.com Handicap Chase winner (Dover's Hill): P02 (0-1-3)
London National winner (Deep Purple): 6 (0-0-1)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Scottish National last time out, finishing 1U
2 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Grand National last time out, both unseating
2 of 10 winners ran in JLT Specialty H'cap Chase, finishing 3P
2 of 3 novice winners ran in the Scilly Isles Novice Chase, finishing 35
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in the Charlie Hall finishing 34
2 of 10 winners ran in previous Bet365 Gold Cup, finishing 44
7 of 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (2 JLT H'cap Chase, 1 4M NH Novice Chase, 1 Cross-Country, 1 Ryanair, 1 Arkle & 1 World Hurdle)
8 of 10 winners had their last start in a Cheltenham chase or in Irish/Scottish/Aintree Grand National (both exceptions ran in a hurdle)

Trainers
Philip Hobbs (2-5-13) trained the winner in 2006 and 2008 and has filled 4 of the 11 places in past 3 years.
Paul Nicholls (1-8-25) saddled Ad Hoc to win this in 2001 & 2003.
Irish trained runners (2-1-15) have won 2 of last 10 runnings from 8.8% of total runners.

Price
7 of 10 winners were priced between 6/1 and 16/1
No strong trends on trends on the prices, though there have been a few upsets recently with winners at 20/1 and 25/1 in past 4 years.
Favourites (0-6-12) have failed to win this in past 10 year, level stakes loss of 10.00.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    French bred
•    Aged 6 to 8 (or placed in this race last year)
•    Carrying 10-7 to 11-5
•    Officially rated 132 to 145
•    Run in the past 50 days
•    Finished in first 6 on last completed chase start
•    Had last run at Cheltenham Festival, in a grand national or over hurdles
•    Ran in a race at 2012 Cheltenham Festival
•    Run at least 3 times this season
•    Won over 3M 1F+
•    Won a class 2 or higher chase worth 20K+
•    Run in no more than 9 handicap chases (won no more than 2)
•    Trained by Philip Hobbs or in Ireland
Report turnip turns April 27, 2012 1:22 PM BST
thanks racecallerCool
Report IC superstar April 27, 2012 2:34 PM BST
It is not raining in Esher at the moment. Not a clue if the forecast will be right but have put up Viking Blond on my blog. The link is below and a really important factor IMO is the following:

Nigel's form of late has been fantastic. It is a shame he is hitting peak form as the season is coming to a close but that will be irrelevant if he wins this. In the last 10 days he has had 28 runners. 13 of them have finished in the top three and of those 13, 7 won. There is no questioning he is on fire at the moment.

http://onetojump.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/bet-365-gold-cup-chase-ante-post.html  Hope it is of some interest
Report BritBronco April 27, 2012 2:55 PM BST
It's a tricky race for sure, I was expecting it to cut up a bit more, but at least it keeps the big prices and b364+1 are offering 5 places.

My shortlist is:

LBB (backed at 12/1)
Roalco (backed at 14/1)
Viking Blonde
Rare Bob

If it was heavy I would be confident in LBB, but my confidence is waining that it will be soft enough. I certainly wouldn't be backing him at the current prices.

Roalco and Viking certainly meet a lot of the trends, young, french bred in the OR and weight bands. Hobbs has a good record in the race.
As ICS highlighted, Viking Blond looks to have a good chance with that massive claim.

I backed Rare Bob in the National as it met all of my trends, so I am tempted to back him again 'just in case'. However it doesn't seem such a good fit this time, on account of his weight and age.

I'll be adding Viking Blonde, but I may wait until 10am tomorrow in case B366 have to match another firm offering 25/1
Report zilzal1 April 27, 2012 3:15 PM BST
Nice Blog Brit, looks like you have had quite a good season, as a fellow Son Of Flickerer id salute youMischief

Looking through some of the selections id say we have a similar view of the market and looking at a race(im on Tidal thoughLaugh)

although you might have just persuaded me into a punt at 25s on Viking
Report BJG April 27, 2012 3:19 PM BST
Swing Bill 40/1
Dovers Hill 16/1
Le Beau Bai 12/1


Final Team goin to War - Cool
Report turnip turns April 27, 2012 3:42 PM BST
Can't see the winner there^Mischief
Report Facts April 27, 2012 3:56 PM BST
LBB (nap)- and I agree, BJG, Dovers Hill is worth a saver.
Report zilzal1 April 27, 2012 3:59 PM BST
Dont you just feel that he's at the top end of his handicap rating though Facts??
Report IC superstar April 27, 2012 4:35 PM BST
thanks for having a look at the blog zilzal. It is the first time I've done this and thankfully a few head bobbers have gone my way! Am quite keen on Cornas tomorrow as I get the impression he is a bit of a sandown lover. but that isn't for this thread so I'll leave it there
Report zilzal1 April 27, 2012 4:41 PM BST
Bluddy hell we do think the sameLaugh last week i backed Merigo and Global Village!! Cornas has to be the bet at the price imo

Other races

Got to be with The Pier in the hcap hurdle and a Columbian/Poet rfc tommorrow provided they get the fractions right, they aint making a lot from the back on the flat course

all the best, ill be reading the blog each week, do you do the flat??
Report proctor strikes April 27, 2012 4:51 PM BST
I cannot believe Aldertune is still available to back at 20-1. This will have been the target I'm sure of, given a couple of sighters at Sandown last two runs. Has had a nice break, stayed away from the festivals. Many of these are running as an after thought, WER, RB, LBB, VV, VB, and so on. Doesnt mind the what the ground is according to the form book. Schofield knows him well and can just see a big run. Will be interesting to see what Nicholls says tomorrow.
Report IC superstar April 27, 2012 4:55 PM BST
Yeah I was on Cornas in the grand annual. slow ground will suit

I'm a NH man at heart but will probably keep blogging. With flat being relentless once it gets under way I'm thinking of sticking to the top level races and either sprints or long distance races (as close to jumps as flat gets!)

Was at Cheltenham when The Pier ran. he must have a big chance. Although I'd be worried about Tour D'argent who looks an improver. Plus nice form with attaglance!

cornas makes for huge appeal at 12s!
Report worcesterwilly April 27, 2012 4:58 PM BST
I agree 100% about ALDERTUNE and actually think Nicholls had him up his sleeve here had the trainers title gone to the wire...

MAJOR MALLARKEY is fresh and ran a cracker in the Midlands National on not dissimilar ground and SWING BILL looks a typical Pipe Saturday horse....

Had the race been earlier in the year I'd have gone LBB/WER but think both now too short!
Report zilzal1 April 27, 2012 5:00 PM BST
Im only a festival and weekend punter nowdays, far too much racing to take in for a start, no 2yo's, no maidens, hardly any below class 3s and dont bet at hardly any Northern meetings except at the very top level. Sprints im very careful on straight courses nowdays and most bets would be in class 3 plus handicaps from 7-10f.

You gotta have a break with all the racing though and id say i spend more time looking at results and replays than summing up a race

Good Luck!!
Report Facts April 27, 2012 5:08 PM BST
zilzal1

Convinced that LBB will run a huge race - and think he can so easily win this.
Agree price is now too short. But more than happy with my 12/1 Happy
Yes, he's rated high now - but still think he's better than these. And I think the going will be soft enough to bring out the best in him.GL everyone.
Report BritBronco April 27, 2012 5:37 PM BST
Some interesting market moves..

Boyles priced up the day of race market and made LBB 8/1 jf with WER. Didn't last long, into 6/1 now.

Rare Bob now best priced 16/1, missed the 20s there. Interesting, as he was weak in the market before the GN. Been tipped somewhere?

VB prices vary from 14/1 to 25/1, may have to snap that up before it goes!
Report zilzal1 April 27, 2012 6:41 PM BST
Cornas 16-1 with Laddies has had to be taken
Report booster April 27, 2012 7:53 PM BST
Can't really see how Le Beau Bai is badly handicapped, having been placed off 143 in a Welsh National and won by 21 lengths at Chepstow over 3 miles off 139. Last time he was third to Giles Cross and Neptune Collonges off 140 and is one of very few equipped to handle tomorrow's conditions and distance. Surely the ground will be soft and it takes a lot of getting at Sandown. Slight concern is going right handed but never noticed him jump left handed and has a good second over hurdles at Exeter (20 lengths clear of the third). Won a couple of reasonable chases over 3 miles to give hope he can keep up with these early and can't see anything coming home better than him.

A very solid horse when you consider all the negatives about most of the others all of whom a tenuous case can be made for.
Report GoldCupWinner April 27, 2012 11:20 PM BST
For those who ran in and completed the Scottish National, isn't it a bit much to ask them to race another marathon trip only a week later? Does that happen on the regular in this race?
Report BritBronco April 27, 2012 11:27 PM BST
2 winners in the last 10 years ran in the Scottish National prior. One of them won it!
I'm not sure if the races are normally just one week apart though.

More shortening going on in the market. Roalco now top priced 9/1 and Rare Bob is only available at 14/1. Looks like I missed the price on RB!
Report zilzal1 April 27, 2012 11:33 PM BST
There was a very small field when Hot Weld won the race, the Murphy one didnt last that long at Ayr last year before this race and was helped by the ones in front having a ding dong

Depends what kind of season they have had imo, a lot are kept away half the winter
Report GoldCupWinner April 27, 2012 11:44 PM BST
Thx. I was just looking at Any Currency. Is better off at the weight with Major Malarkey over CD. Softer ground may help as he has loads of stamina. Just that he ran last week and not very well but he was off for 3 months before that.
Report thieveslikeus April 28, 2012 7:36 AM BST
Cannot have LBB at all as I think this is too much of a speed track for him and the ground isn't going to be genuinely heavy enough to help him either.  So many of the others are old, exposed, out of form and/or need good ground that it is much less competitive than it first looks.

As much as I like Deep Purple as a horse, his win over this C & D was in a slow run race and I cannot see him getting home on this ground with that weight.  Tidal Bay is well in on old form but less so on this season's efforts.  His traditional late dash could be quite effective on this track though.   Major Malarkey is probably best of the exposed sorts but poor value.

Has t be the novices for me, 3pts Roalco DF 2pts Viking Blond
Report GoldCupWinner April 28, 2012 8:28 AM BST
Nicholls positive about Tidal Bay on the morning line if that's worth anything!
Report Duncster April 28, 2012 8:42 AM BST
So worth backing Aldertune then?
Report GoldCupWinner April 28, 2012 8:52 AM BST
Said Aldertune wouls struggle to stay in the ground. I'd agree with that looking at his form. I won't be backing Tidal either though haha.
Report BJG April 28, 2012 1:05 PM BST
Bucketing down
Report Facts April 28, 2012 1:31 PM BST
Happy
Report BJG April 28, 2012 2:08 PM BST
Going description clearly a load of cok all week as expected! Very tough goin
Report TINnotaTON April 28, 2012 2:21 PM BST
I'l say, is there still some good to soft places by any chance Grin
Report turnip turns April 28, 2012 2:30 PM BST
West end rocker @30 ap and Ouzbeck @34,gl allWink
Report BJG April 28, 2012 2:30 PM BST
A joke, givin out them description wen everyone knows they cant be accurate!
Report turnip turns April 28, 2012 3:04 PM BST
added Galaxy rock @27Mischief
Report zilzal1 April 28, 2012 3:20 PM BST
Cool
Report BJG April 28, 2012 3:20 PM BST
wd Tidal Bayers, never in doubt
Report turnip turns April 28, 2012 3:22 PM BST
ZilLaugh i tip my hat to youCool well done,well done all tidalsWink
Report zilzal1 April 28, 2012 3:22 PM BST
Mine either win or are tailed off TTLaugh
Report GoldCupWinner April 28, 2012 3:24 PM BST
Nice one! I left the run on heavy behind Joe Lively put me off. Glad he won though as always had a soft spot for the horse.
Report turnip turns April 28, 2012 3:40 PM BST
zilLaugh enjoyWink
Report Facts April 28, 2012 3:40 PM BST
WD Tidal Bay backers - sluiced up.
Report TINnotaTON April 28, 2012 6:31 PM BST
fantastic performance that, been called a few names in the past, but deserves to be called brilliant today, well done to all who backed him..
Report strontium April 28, 2012 8:17 PM BST
Well done backers. Most impressive the way he charged up the hill. What a crazy beast he is.
Report buddeliea April 29, 2012 8:21 AM BST
Absolutely chuffed to bits for the horse.
Hes had some stick on here and been called some names,and yes hes let me down a few times,but to run like that in those conditions on that ground carrying that weight was nothing short of brilliant.
Was a pleasure to be there and will go down as one of my most memorable days at the races.
Report layingisthewayforward April 29, 2012 9:17 AM BST
Well done backers, wouldn't have backed this woofer in a million years!
Report strontium April 29, 2012 1:40 PM BST
Laugh Sadly I have in the past but I decdied enough was enough half way through the season Plain
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