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harry callaghan
18 Mar 12 18:28
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Date Joined: 10 Nov 07
| Topic/replies: 6,139 | Blogger: harry callaghan's blog
Well thought this lovely filly deserves her own thread...sorry if there is already one but couldn't find it...

A january daughter of montjeu, out of Cherry Hinton a daughter of the great mare Urban Sea a beautiful pedigree for a classic horse.

Wading who was backward on debut in a large field maiden and also carrying plenty of condition found the more experienced madhmoonah to good on debut but rapid improvement since has seen her reach a very prominent position at the head of the 1000 guinneas and oaks betting...

Her next outing was just a mere maiden at dundalk when slamming subsequent winner Aloof by over 4 lengths in a time quite fast in comparison to other races ran that evening....

She then turned up at newmarket in the Rockfel Stakes a good and recognised guinneas trial...this was the first time we in england had seen the imposing daughter of montjeu, racing prominently as seems her want, the raking stride was there for all to see as she stamped her class against some decent fillies in what looked a very decent renewal of the race, it wasn't till the last furlong until she put the others to bed but in a race that was run at decent fractions she certainly doesn't lack gears and the extra furlong in the guinneas will suit as will the step up to at least a mile and a quarter....

I see some don't feel she has the necessary speed required to win a classic over a mile and she is outright favourite for the oaks but for me she has the speed as well as the stamina to mix it with the top milers before stepping up to a mile and a half in the oaks, the time she ran in the rockfel was faster than the dewhurst ran over the same course and distance and her prominent racing style will stand her in good stead at newmarket and at epsom

Maybe a stable mate of wading was pulled out of a subsequent run in the marcel boussac and obviously to me, all wasn't well with her, so for me now, has something to prove, also she will have to win where a huge amount of subsequent moyglare winners haven't or haven't gone on...the moyglare is a tough race for 2 year old fillies and it is no surprise there poor record in the year following guinneas...i maybe wrong about her and she is a top class filly but at the prices i would sooner take the 10's on the stable mate who for me has slightly better form anyway or at least on ratings anyway...

the good moving daughter of montjeu showed me at least, she is improving rapidly and the long raking stride shown at newmarket shows she is going to be a danger to all, come the classics...

hope others like her as much as i do and an investment has been had for both races....

just 2 months to go and thought she deserved her own thread as a future champion

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Replies: 94
By:
Howellsy
When: 18 Mar 12 19:57
I agree she was very impressive at Newmarket. I am on for the Oaks, as my only antepost investment, but I do fear she might lack the speed for the Guineas. Happy to be proved wrong though.
By:
the bairn
When: 19 Mar 12 01:03
harry, i agree also, your write up has made me even more confident, i have bet her and Lyric of Light, if they both train on i'm confident of a return. cheers.
By:
rhinestone
When: 19 Mar 12 18:02
I'm already on big for the Oaks harry Happy
By:
harry callaghan
When: 19 Mar 12 18:58
yes think she is a top class prospect rhinestone and is the one 2 year old i am looking forward to seeing as a 3 year old...lovely moverHappy
By:
roobuck
When: 19 Mar 12 19:02
Clearly a very nice filly with a pedigree to die for.

For me, Pimpernel's form in Dubai puts the Rockel in perspective with regards the Goldophin horses and the Guineas. I actually think that Maybe being pulled out of the Marcel Boussac is actually a positive, as she already had 5 races, was a Group 1 winner and actually had nothing to prove in that respect. As she had been on the go since early May, it was more likely that they didn't want to burn her out rather than there being a problem.

If you want to throw in stats like Moyglare winners, surely the Montjeu one with fillies and with 3yos at distances in Group races below 1M is more powerful. That being said, I am sure Coolmore are desperate to get Montjeu a Classic winner at a mile so a good chance she will pitch up.

I do like her chances for the Oaks but personally could not back her at the price. So many stables to play their hands yet and as I have not got any fancy prices, I would much rather back her at 4/5-1 after a run that proved her well being.

Good luck with your bets though Harry and I have no strong opinion on an alternative in either race yet
By:
harry callaghan
When: 19 Mar 12 20:42
Have to disagree with that a tad roobuck...

If you look at a lot of 2 year old filly form in general it is very easy to pick the bones out of there form moving forwards as a lot of fillies don't go on...

I know maybe is a top class filly but i could pick the bones out of a lot of her form as as with a lot of 2 year old fillies that have faced her haven't moved forward since, this is a basic fact when backing fillies moving forward...la collina has won since in group 1 company then disappointed as has the improver over shorter lightening pearl, but not a single winner apart from them and the ascot race she won wasn't a good edition of the race...no winners out of the moyglare...but because you cannot trust fillies form i'm not judging her on her collateral form this would be foolish because of what i said above...i don't see maybe missing the boussac as a positive myself as that was the aim and clearly this shows she wasn't right, which means we will be guessing her well being, but like you say if she preps we will, but if she doesn't 7-2 is short imo

Pimpernel who improved with every run last year went on to win a big field satisfactory listed race and has disappointed since, who knows she may not of trained on but looked a 2year old, mary fields beaten out of sight by pimpernel at newmarket has since turned round the form in dubai, this tells us all we need to know with fillies... the times ran at newmarket tells us the rockfel was well up to scratch and has been a recognised trial for many years, producing numerous guineas winners...

the thing you have to love about wading is the rapid improvement shown from one run to the next to the next improving almost a stone with each run, this makes me very confident that this filly will continue to improve, she wasn't the finished article at newmarket and think there is much more to come, like you say, maybe has had 5 runs already and that experience will be vital moving into the guineas but since the first renawal in 1982 the moyglare stud grade 1 hasn't produced a single guineas winner at newmarket...make what you will of stats but is worth baring in mind as it seems no coincidence to me...

agree on the montjeu angle but most of the progeny he has produced have been colts so we haven't been able to categorically say, he can't produce top class fillies...he has proved now to be able to produce top class horses at a range of distances but this filly showed plenty of toe and precocity for us to believe she can be affective at a true run mile at least early doors in the season and they will be training her to win the 1000 as well as the oaks moving forward...

personally roobuck you are looking at the race sensibly but just think this filly could be very special if she continues on the right track and don't by the montjeu angle as the sire continues to astound me...
By:
roobuck
When: 19 Mar 12 22:48
Harry, I think you have assumed I like Maybe for the race which actually I don't. Don't get me wrong I would be more than happy if I had backed her at 33s like some on the 1000 thread, but whilst she has very solid form, she has never appealed from a visual perspective.

I was referring to Maybe simply to disagree with your comment about her missing the Boussac as a negative. Perhaps it being a positive is a stretch, but a lot of fillies that don't train on have been over raced as 2yos.

At one stage last season, it looked like it was going to be a vintage year for the 2yo fillies but in the end I thought they were just an average lot. This may prove very wide of the mark, but I actually think that Maybe's price is a reflection of doubts about the rest of the Group 1 contenders last year and nothing else coming forward to stake a real claim.

That may mean that Wading does have a decent chance but again on what they have achieved, if 8-1 is okay for her, then 7-2 for Maybe is not unreasonable. However neither are of interest to me at this stage.

But what I will say is that I admire you putting forward your opinion. You have a gut feeling that Wading could be very special, have backed it up with good arguments and if you are right then the current prices are obviously going to seem very attractive - I genuinely wish you well.
By:
elisjohn
When: 20 Mar 12 06:11
having read this thread, ive asked a bookie friend to quote me wading for the oaks with a run , offered 5/1 ,  would anyone take that .
By:
roobuck
When: 20 Mar 12 07:16
I would be surprised if AOB did not aim her at the Oaks so if I wanted to back her I would do it at the bigger price.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 20 Mar 12 20:34
fair play roobuck and you have put my mind at rest to your original post...agree about the fillies but seems no different to any other year give or take a few pounds, agree though no stand out and i suppose thats why i like her so much as feel potentially she will improve past the others...time will tell but lots to like about her.
By:
liberator of the oppressed
When: 20 Mar 12 21:26
I thought WAS looked really really impressive to the eye and that's my Oaks filly. Just something very good about it. Don't know about pedigree mind you. Perhaps somebody could advise?
By:
sj
When: 21 Mar 12 13:49
loto

in my opinion although by Galileo her family are not crying out oaks filly,saying that,i am far from an expert on the breeding side of the sport
By:
DMCK
When: 21 Mar 12 21:04
really like this filly for the oaks, and if you were to ever breed a horse for epsom you'd get her. by an outandout epsom derby, sired pour moi, motivator and authorised,,, and from a family that excells at epsom STS and Galileo winners, dam cherry hinton was 5th at epsom oaks  in a career best performance, All Too Beautiful was second in epsom oaks  and black sam bellamy was 3rd in the cornation cup, all of these are the dams immediate famly, not to mention wonder of wonders was 2nd in the oask last year, i mean this is an epsom family through and through so im all over her fot the oaks and will back a full prother for the derby as soon as i see him declared or the racecource.
BUT the guineas is different, its about speed and turn of foot, while i really dont think montjeu will sire a G1 miler, i think if he was to it would be a similar profile to Wading, a group winner over 7f at 2 and showed great toe in doing so. however i cant be with her for the guineas and will be siding with a 6f group winner by a speeder sire.
By:
Rowley Mile
When: 21 Mar 12 21:15
I will be shot down completely for this but last year's rockfel looks nearly as bad as the previous years' which was won by cape dollar. Out of the ten strong field, there were only two fillies who won races sunsequently (3 between them), a 3yo conditions race at navan for hurrican havoc. Submission managed a handicap win in nottingham off 79 and one at doncaster off 83. The whole field had at least 50 subsequent attempts to win and that's all that was yielded.

Aidan O'Brien wasn't represented at that 'trial' and 3 handed he managed 2nd,11th and 15th in the guineas. His horse that finished 11th was a dual g1 winning 2yo also.
By:
DMCK
When: 21 Mar 12 21:32
Sunday Times form isnt tht bad 2nd to lightening pearl but maybe 7f was too far a a 2year old, Alsindi isa fair horse  and who knows how good Gamilati is and could be, Pimpernel shouldnt be written off she was clearly sent over the wrong trip last time out. not to say it was an outstanding g2 but iv seen far worse and in that year g2 filly contests not that many better
By:
Rowley Mile
When: 21 Mar 12 21:38
Sunday times form was great and obviously something was amiss given the betting rings view on her that day. I'm just using it as an example of how we can read a lot into the winner being the best horse in the race that day but who knows what course will be taken and how much of a battering will the formbook take along the way this seas if any of them are to trouble the judge at all.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 21 Mar 12 22:53
rowley mile how do you make out a comparison between cape dollars rockfel in comparison to wadings??

just explain to us, as i am perplexed by your analysis or should i say astonished. you then reel off about a load of form that doesn't concern us? what relevance does it have i mean to wading??
By:
Rowley Mile
When: 21 Mar 12 23:38
O.k, it's obviously different but always possible people are getting carried away, no offence meant.
By:
jamesp
When: 23 Mar 12 22:37
WADING is clearly a very smart prospect and I'm keen on her chances of picking up a major prize over middle distances this season (such as the Oaks), but there are several concerns that put me off backing her for the Guineas.  Firstly her pedigree screams middle distances (SEA THE STARS is her only close relative to have won over a mile or less at age 3+ in Europe, though to be fair not many have tried!) and I've no doubt that like all her family she will prove best at distances beyond a mile this season.  Secondly, I'm confident that MAYBE is still regarded by connections as their number one Guineas filly (and as such she merits considerable respect).  Thirdly, I'm sure that Godolphin do not regard their Rockfel runner-up PIMPERNEL in the same league as their main Guineas hopes (DISCOURSE, LYRIC OF LIGHT and GAMILATI).  Finally, whilst I was impressed by the manner of WADING's victory in the Rockfel, I have to say that the form looks a little shaky: the runner-up was a decent and progressive juvenile and went on to land a modest Listed race next time, but the third had only won a small-field maiden, the fourth had been beaten in two maidens, the fifth was unable to reproduce her Cheveley Park Stakes form and clearly ran below par, the sixth was well beaten in a Naas nursery next time, and the seventh had been well beaten in Listed and Group 3 races and has twice been trounced by GAMILATI at Meydan this year.  (Put it this way, I wouldn't want to back the Rockfel fourth BANA WU off her present handicap mark of 102!)

Having reeled off all those negatives, however, it would be folly to write off WADING's Guineas chances altogether.  As others have pointed out, the winning time for the Rockfel was fast and if she were to turn up at Newmarket for the Guineas she would command plenty of respect (even if jockey bookings and betting suggested that she was Ballydoyle's second string).  At around 12/1 (after the Rockfel) she was a cracking bet for the Oaks.

Harry, re: the record of Moyglare Stud Stakes runners in the Newmarket Guineas, SAYYEDATI won both races.  The Moyglare has varied enormously in quality over the years, but it has produced plenty of Group 1 (and Grade 1) winners at three, including CHIMES OF FREEDOM, SAYYEDATI, NICER, DANCE DESIGN, RYAFAN, TARASCON, SHAHTOUSH, HULA ANGEL, IMAGINE, SOPHISTICAT, SAOIRE, SIMPLY PERFECT, AGAIN, LILLIE LANGTRY and MISTY FOR ME.  It has also produced QUARTER MOON (runner-up in three Group 1's), TOGETHER (runner-up in three Group 1's, including the 1000 Guineas) and WANNABE GRAND (runner-up in the 1000 Guineas).  Many of these were trained by Aidan O'Brien...

Good luck with the bets!
By:
jamesp
When: 24 Mar 12 08:21
Andrew Fletcher published an in-depth article on WADING earlier this month:
http://horseracingtavern.com/2012/03/1000-guineas-spotlight-ante-post-tips-pedigree/
I wouldn't disagree with anything in his write-up.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 26 Mar 12 19:18
James there are bound to be plenty of group 1 winners from the moyglare as so many decent fillies contest it but it has been a graveyard for guineas winners apart from the top class sayyedati in 1990...personally since i have followed form it has always been a race to be wary of...agreed there have been varying degrees of quality down the years but the fact still remains it has a deplorable record with guineas runners, don't know why this is but the race appears to take a lot out of them...time may prove this wrong and maybe certainly looks a top class filly but considering she wasn't right to contest the marcel boussac, she is short enough here imo...and i will be taking her on with the stablemate who for me is not a slow horse who looks open to more improvement.
By:
rubyisgodinthesaddle
When: 26 Mar 12 20:37
From what i say yesterday, Maybe hacked all all over Wading yesterday over that 7f or what ever they did.

Can be no doubt in my mind under no circumstance will Wading beat Maybe over 1 mile.

Wading had to be shaken to get up the backside of Maybe which was desperate effort if anyone is even considering her for the Guineas.

Oaks would be interest but plenty of ability with Was and Kissed to consider as well as Maybe.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 26 Mar 12 21:11
interesting that maybe was sweating and tail swishing in the parade ring...

also of interest was o'briens comments after she galloped

1000 Guineas and Oaks favourite Maybe pleased in her work, with O'Brien saying: "She has done very well physically, it will be interesting to see what she is like when she comes home but she seems fine after today and we are very happy with where she is at the moment.

read what you will into these comments, it says to me he has had problems with her and is hoping she is alright when she gets home



wading has done very well physically by all accounts...interesting that you chose to base your reasoning around one gallop you have seen over a distance you are also not sure about...

got to love the pocket talking on here, brilliant...
By:
rubyisgodinthesaddle
When: 26 Mar 12 21:21
How am I pocket talking i havenet backed Maybe but I am seriously considering it now after that Gallop.

Wading had to pushed to get up with with Maybe who was swinging away on the Bridle. I don't know how you can gleam a positive about the 1000 Guineas re Wading. She looked either slow, lazy or a mixture of both. She could barely have done anything and i accept your point on one gallop. But a Montjeu Filly sets out all alarm bells, she looked like she was not interested. I be thinking she may head for the Musidora or something like that. She will not be ready for 1000 Guineas IMHO and I believe Maybe has by far the best form with a Group 1 wins.

I don't believe she will run now after that, she needs more time and clearly plenty of work to do. Maybe look far more furnished and professional.

AOB Can say she has 5 legs and I would not believe a word he says. Joseph rode her and rode the best in each lot, not that matters but for me its a indication that he will not get off her for anything what so ever.

Look at this operation in there History, everyone is always looking for potential and ignoring the one that has the best form in the book. Unbeaten Group 1 Winner, Galileo, Galloped all over her good group. I can not name a negative other than she is a Filly.

3/1 looks right!!!, I would not want to lay that price that is for sure
By:
harry callaghan
When: 26 Mar 12 21:36
well fair play good luck with your bet...i for one would never take complete notice of an early season gallop...but each to there own...you don't know how much work they have done or who is a better worker...

of course joseph is not going to get off the favourite for the guineas...ryan was there to ride wading after winning the rockfel on her and i am also happy he will be on, come the big day...

if she doesn't turn up for the guineas i will be astonished, there is no better trial for the oaks than the guineas and she will not be out of place i can assure you, read into an early season gallop what you will.
By:
rubyisgodinthesaddle
When: 26 Mar 12 21:57
harry certainly not writing Wading for the Oaks and she is fav for a reason but I wonder could she go completely go the wrong way if they rush her. Filly's are difficult to predict at the best of times and I hate to see him rush her just for the sake of it. Just look at Wonders of Wonders last year all the ability in the World as she went sour quick and gave up the game. I hate to see them rush a filly for no reason just wait and be patient with her for me.

If she places and runs that be a excellent effort and really could put her on tune for the Oaks but for a race that is barely 4 weeks away I would have wanted to see a hell of a lot more personally.

Could be a very small field race if it cuts up, could be a field of 10 or less. Godolphin early season form woeful and already one on the sidelines but Ballydoyle arent exactly hot out of the blocks.  It may be a Guineas that may not take much winning just looking thru the field.

I believe Maybe has been underrated and I think the way she races suits a big galloping track like Newmarket and The Curragh. She can make her on running which may be very important come the race and really put these Fillies to the sword.

Once she is 100% confirmed for the race I am certainly on her. Hopefully she do the business and backing antepost especially Fillies is very very dangerous game but willing to make an exception Excited
By:
harry callaghan
When: 26 Mar 12 22:18
it is 6 weeks to the race not 4? so how are they rushing her?? your reasoning doesn't make sense to me, and have no wish to argue with you...

one other thing godolphin are in the best form i have seen them ever in meydan and al zarooni did a super job last year with his horses...good luck with maybe she is a worthy fav
By:
rubyisgodinthesaddle
When: 26 Mar 12 22:34
I just believe there after the gallop yesterday she didn't show enough to warrant her running in the 1000 guineas when the stable have the rock solid favorite. She has not got the anywhere near the tacital pace to win a guineas. I be surprised if she runs. But we will see soon enough what happens.and that is the beauty if having an opinion
By:
the bairn
When: 26 Mar 12 23:32
Ruby, you are definitely kidding us on, Wading followed Maybe all the way, never put to the sword at all, and could have passed her at anytime, Kissed did the same, all three looked to have flourished over the winter, but Wading was the one to impress. cheers.
By:
roobuck
When: 27 Mar 12 09:38
I agree with ruby that looking at that gallop I would much rather be with Maybe for the Guineas.

Very dangerous to draw any firm conclusions from a 1/2 speed workout, but what Maybe did was effortless. Whilst I think Ryan did need to ask Wading a small question she did respond and confirms the impression from last year that she could be a very good filly...but imo over a distance greater than 1 mile
By:
jamesp
When: 27 Mar 12 09:47
Harry, you mentioned earlier that MAYBE "wasn't right to contest the marcel boussac", but the yard never gave any reason for pulling her out of the race, so it's pure conjecture to state that she 'wasn't right'.  O'Brien routinely leaves horses in races until the final declaration stage and I have not heard or read anything to suggest that there was anything amiss with MAYBE.  Perhaps she had started to go in her coat or come into season, there could have been any number of reasons why they decided to call it a day for the season.  Anyway, the trip to the racecourse will have done both fillies the world of good and they're likely to be more forward (I hope) than MISTY FOR ME was last year!!
By:
harry callaghan
When: 27 Mar 12 12:11
jamesp listen all maybe well with her and hope she is as want to see if my theory is right on her...

what did you make of aiden's comments in regards to getting her home and hoping she is alright...



1000 Guineas and Oaks favourite Maybe pleased in her work, with O'Brien saying: "She has done very well physically, it will be interesting to see what she is like when she comes home but she seems fine after today and we are very happy with where she is at the moment.

what did you make of that...i made it out to mean, hope she is ok after the gallop.
By:
sintonian
When: 27 Mar 12 12:50
She is the applye of aidans eye. Every footstep is on an eggshell when you have a special horse so his comments reflect that,imo.
By:
sintonian
When: 27 Mar 12 12:51
*apple
By:
sintonian
When: 27 Mar 12 12:56
Agree with those who believe Wading wants a trip. In an ordinary year she might have a solid chance in a Guineas, a bit like Blue Bunting last year, but for me Maybe looks a powerhouse of a filly and will take all the beating. There is no guarantee Aidan will have Wading tuned-up, if she runs, either. Maybe on the other hand has an unbeaten record to protect.

Fwiw, the Maybe/Wading Guineas/Oaks double pays 40/1 at current prices if you want a £10 speculator.
By:
roobuck
When: 27 Mar 12 13:29
harry I really believe that if there had been a problem with Maybe before the Boussac, it would have come out. As I said earlier in the thread I think her missing that race was a positive and though it is a complete guess, probably because she was showings signs of 'I've had enough for this season'. Her Moyglare run showed no real improvement to my mind than her previous form with Rubina and perhaps they just decided it was time to stop.

Maybe never particularly appealed to me in her racing last year though her form was consistent and very solid. However I watched the gallop today with a view to Wading but eye was consistently drawn to Maybe and there is no doubt she looked fantastic.

Remember AOB was happy to mention the problem with Power - don't envisage any issues with Maybe and it was a stock answer that 'we'll see how they come out of today before making plans'

I have no financial interest but I think its going to take a very serious horse to beat Maybe though of course you think it will be Wading - and you may be right obviously
By:
sintonian
When: 27 Mar 12 13:42
I was surprised they even entered Maybe for the Boussac tbh. She had done all her running/winning and had nothing more to prove at that stage.
By:
jamesp
When: 27 Mar 12 15:25
The only thing I can think of, with regard to Aidan's comments, is that the filly has perhaps been showing signs of freshness or fizziness at home.  If so, the racecourse work-out will hopefully have dealt with the freshness and brought her on.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 27 Mar 12 15:26
Simply on form I think Wading's price for both classics is absymal value.Shocked

She obviously has the breeding and connections to go far (and the Oaks definitely looks a much more realsitic target than the 1,000) but that has been well and truely incorporated into her odds.
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