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Wading dual classic winner...
Wading dual classic winner...
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What was bad value unclepunkle was when you put up noble prince at 6-1 for the ryanair chase...that was abysmal value...
well all the maybe fans have piped up and thats fair enough personally i am all over wading for the guineas and actually think on pedigree she is not guaranteed to get over a mile and a quarter... I have been wrong before but am quite prepared to take maybe on at the 10-1 that is available as think she is a most progressive filly who doesn't lack pace...maybe is much more flashy and like i say she is a worthy fav jamesp i am not sure and have scouring the net to try and find what i heard aiden say...I believe it was on breeders cup night but cannot back it up so apologies. I'm sure she is perfectly ok and like you say it is just freshness... |
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''piped up'' ? Christ, Harry. We are discussing the merits of each horse. Clearly you wont have a bad word said against Wading, most probably because you have backed her, but she still has plenty to prove at this stage whether you choose to believe it or not.
The fact you are mentioning minor issues such as sweating and tail swishing in the paddock prior to the gallop suggests to me you are trying to find anything to give as a negative towards Maybe. Anyway, as a Maybe fan I wont ''pipe up''. |
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I feel the need to back my reasons for fancing her so much so will...
Like I have said in this thread about wading so won't back that up anymore... I believe maybe has had training problems so am keen to get her as she is eating the market...just my opinion and like I say i could be wrong...she is a top class filly but that is shown in her price... Lyric of light is an interesting filly but she is a march filly which is something always to bare in mind when betting a 1000 guineas horse...her form with samitar just worries me a tad and also feel she could be a better filly with cut...she is respected but her price is about right... Discourse who looked a real tool when we last saw her, but had a training set back which forced her to miss the rest of the season is by street cry who is yet to produce a really top class turf horse imo...her pedigree is mixed and I cannot get an angle on her personally...one thing is for sure though, if she turns up her trainer can definitely ready one and she will warrant serious respect come the day if all is well with her again... Elusive Kate was disappointing in the states and how much that has taken out of her who know's but until then she had been progressive...got to prove herself now, hope she runs in a trial so we can find out how she has trained on... lightening pearl won a weak renawal of the cheveley park for me but she is quite a likeable type and is slightly overpriced for this...not sure if she will be good enough but there are worse 20-1 shots... La Collina is interesting as she beat the colts in the phoenix and was still a tad backward when running maybe close at leopardstown...I am happy to forgive her her run in the moyglare as it may have come a tad to soon after her run in the phoenix and for me is the value at around 20-1 if turning up...I have had a small saver on her as think she is to big for this. she is an april filly which is against her however. I see there is money for the april filly diala and she looks progressive...she appeals for the season to come but not here... Well that is where i am at, wadings raking stride will win the day... we hope  |
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Sint no need to be like that...
but most of the feed back I have had on here is from people that have backed maybe... I am against maybe, yes she is my angle into the race from a betting perspective...I don't have fancy prices on maybe so can look at the race subjectively... like i said to you before sint i have no problems with picking the bones out of the horses i have backed and this helps, keep me honest...else you go into a race biased and unable to make a profit from it... believe you me sint i will have no problems picking the bones out of wading after the race but for now, for me she is progressing at a rate of knots...there hasn't been much positive feed back from folk on here for the guineas but disagree with some who think she is just an oaks horse...we will see but apologies for seeming to have a go but when people come on here telling me the race will come to soon when they don't even know how long it is to the race that is just amateur night and feel like i'm wasting my time... |
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but apologies for seeming to have a go but when people come on here telling me the race will come to soon when they don't even know how long it is to the race that is just amateur night
That is aimed at me and I will explain myself. In training a race horse Wading will do no work until next week at the earliest after Sunday at The Curragh, she will have no serious Work the week before the race. So they have 4 weeks to work her into form, I can't believe you are even bringing this up as issue. Clearly training racehorses would not be your fortay, would you work the bollocks of them the week of the race for goodness sake no. She need to progress every week and take her work and eat up every week for the next 4. She did not make it out to the track until Sep last year Maybe was early May. Nearly 4 months between the 2 debuts. What does that tell you, Wading took time to come to hand, Maybe didn't? What do they also say Guineas is the last 2yr old race of the season. Wading ran at Dundalk FFS ,when has a Classic winner ever run won a 2yr old Maiden at Dundalk. Her Rockfel victory was decent but no Group 1 Horses in there. She is a Montjeu Filly, she looked lethargic at The Curragh, No Montjeu winners over 1 mile, Montjeu Filly's are horrific to deal with. Cherry Hinton was a Group 3 Horse at best. At best she have a solid e/w chance in The Oaks. You talk about Maybe fans looking with tinted glasses, every single negative against Wading we bring up you ignore. You say she is progressing at a rate of knots but that is pure conjecture with no fact form or substance to back it up. Wading may win the Oaks she may improve past Maybe come Autumn but there is no way she can win a 1000 Guineas and for my money she won't turn up to the show. |
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She need to progress every week and take her work and eat up every week for the next 4.
To be fair ruby so will any horse that is going to win the Guineas Wading ran at Dundalk FFS ,when has a Classic winner ever run won a 2yr old Maiden at Dundalk. Were similar things said about Ghanaati before the Guineas win? |
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Even look at her form, nothing came from behind so Wading had the complete run of the race in the Rockfel she sat behind the rags and the Rag from Hills yard finished only 2 and bit lengths behind her. Pimpernal was given a horrific ride gave her what 5l from the start. There can be holes in that form, look at the cash even lining up to lay her between 400 odd to lay her from 8.5-9.5. The Stable Lads obviously are keen to take her on as there is what 30 quid to back her.
If you look at the Oaks she is falling in price and Maybe is going the other way. The Vibes don't look good. Roobuck Aidan O Brien is a creature of Habit, I have no seen a 2yr old Maiden winner at Dundalk from this stable ever do anything as a 3yr old to warrant Classic hype. DO you not agree roobuck that she did not look good in comparsion to Maybe in terms of travelling on the Bridle. Her fortay is here ability to hit top gear and stay there rather than quicken in a few strides. If the stable have the fav I don't see why they have to start throwing darts at the board like they do when they have loads of fillies and none of them are any good. Wading as I have said before and will repeat did not look like she was ready to win a 1000 Guineas there and its pure speculation to say Maybe had a hiccup to boot. Its all about opinions and I respect Harry's very much as he had rightly pointed out how impressive she has been but there is a very strong counter to that in the 1000 Guineas picture. Good Debate tho Even the form looks dodgy, just because it was a Future Champions Day Race doesn't mean it was the best Filly race in Europe. Good Debate tho |
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Post got messed around there last lads. Lines moved on me.
My Bad And before some says it yes i have described that both horses are different in terms of there race style but my point is if Wading had to push to get to Maybe backside what would stop Maybe from quickening in a heartbeat and putting daylight between the 2. Thats my big point, Maybe should get 1 mile, she can quicken and can stay(fingers crossed) she is not a Rainbow View type a small framed horse who may not train on. Wading for me can not quicken as well and has a staying style of racing, Big top cruising gear when she gets going but will the race be over before she hits top stride and she showed this when she keep up a fairly good gallop in the Rockfel all the way to the post and past. |
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Harry - no need to be so touchy.
 I seem to remember you being equally touchy when I told you in no uncertain terms that Peddlars Cross wasn't fit to lick Sprinter Scares shoes (over hurdles or fences) well before Christmas. And I obviously won't mention Gan Amhras again  |
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I'm pleased (and a tad surprised) that I've managed to lay WADING for the Guineas at 9.2 and 9.4 this evening, considering she can still be backed at 9/1 (10.0) with at least one of the major bookmakers... The 10/1 seems to have dried up. Clearly she has her supporters for the Guineas.
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For what it's worth, and this is not a personal attack Harry so stay calm
 , I'd suggest on actual form and breeding she should be about 20/1 for the Guineas. Her single figure price for the Guineas now is either down to some seriously impressive homework (which obviously I have no knowledge of so can't take into account), perhaps also combined with the knowledge that her stablemate and Guineas favourite Maybe is not 100% which will clearly have a big impact on the stables plans and the market (again nothing I have any knowledge of) all of which has seen her supported by those in the know. Or it's just the usual bookie games that happen at this time of year with horses shortening for no real financial reason. For he record my only antepost bets are on Discourse at 16/1 (glad to see she is solid enough in the market but I haven't read anything about her wellbeing since her injury so I'm still half tempted to lay off), and a throw away bet on Lightening Pearl at 25/1 simple because I felt she was too big a price for a Cheverly Park winner, and while there are stamina doubts her breeding certainly suggests a mile is likely to suit. |
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Slashed across the High Street bookies boards the last 2 days. Hills 7 into 5, Lads 8 into 6, 365 9 into 13/2 etc etc. Thats in the Oaks market
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Just checked the guineas market. Same story there.
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The market move for WADING (in both races) is interesting, but I'll remain opposed to her in the Guineas market until there is some definite news. There aren't too many opportunities for Guineas fillies in Ireland before the big race, so Aidan may be forced to bring MAYBE and/or WADING over for the trial races at Newmarket and Newbury if he wants to get a run into them. Aidan said after the racecourse gallops on Sunday that plans would be made in the next 10 days (i.e. next week), as the horses start getting into faster work. This will indicate whether WADING has the speed to enter the Guineas picture. My guess is that MAYBE, as the speedier of the two fillies, will remain at the forefront of Guineas plans, provided all is well with her at home...
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BANA WU failed to enhance the Rockfel form this afternoon at Kempton. Beaten nearly 4 lengths when fourth behind WADING last October, she was beaten by a similar margin today in the fillies' conditions race over a mile, finishing 7th behind six fillies who are all officially rated between 80 and 92. It's just one piece of evidence, admittedly, but the Rockfel form desperately needs a boost!
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I don't think the Rockfel needs a boost to validate Wading as a top class prospect; indeed considering her pedigree and the trip I think you can only see positives. We sometimes consider too much the form of the animals in behind. You can only beat what is in front of you. It was a quicker time than the Dewhurst and Wading was green when hitting the front and could have won by further. I agree with James that she is potentially better over the Oaks trip but I would think she will line up at Newmarket. They usually go quick in the guineas and Wading will certainly be finishing imo. IF Maybe is considered vastly superior (which if the betting is any indication, she is not) I would expect Wading to take in York on route to Epsom.
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Going purely on breeding doesn't always work out though. Given the nature of recent results in the Oaks I think the current singlefigure price about Wading is bad value to be honest.
The Oaks is often a race where a leading contender can sprout from nowhere. |
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I do agree about the current price for both races being poor. I am on at 12s for the Oaks which I felt was good value. Take your point about breeding but when Montjeu is there we do have a bit more to hang an opinion on. Wading is shorter now than Alexandrova was at this point in her year which does add weight to a general picture antepost value being squeezed by the bookies. The Coolmore boys did get well and truely stuck into her before her reappearance and after (defeat to Short Skirt at York) I think Sintonians point about an Oaks filly coming from nowhere is very valid but at this stage its Wading for me.
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Maybe working the gallops down at Ballydoyle....price has crashed from near 4/1 into a strong 5/2 now.
Wading on the drift out to 20s for a liability of 2k. Game up fella's |
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But for the Oaks
She has fallen in price to clear 11/2 fav. Seems very logical the plans now. Maybe out to near 15/1 for the Oaks. Wading Oaks Maybe Guineas(Irish English and Royal Ascot) |
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maybe on the move in oaks market , £200 someone wants to nback her, ive just layed over a ton at 8.4
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my lay went in seconds
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Maybe very strong for the oaks today indeed
 Problems with Wading?? Think she is tailor made for the oaks tbh |
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seeing the 1000 market with wading, and support for maybe for 1000 and oaks , surely problem with wading, but its ridicilous that 2 weeks away from classics no info from coolmore, i could get more out of n korea
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Drifter on the Oaks market on here, with Maybe moving in the opposite direction. Injured perhaps?
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Out of the 1000G
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Ok, is it that they are going for the Oaks preparation via York as with Alexandrova, or has there been a setback? Answers on a postcard.......
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Injury setback or will we never know?
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badblokes have removed her from the Oaks market - must be injured
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the signs on here for 2 weeks now, why couldnt obrien tell us last sunday instead of waffling
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Think you have seen the reason for the Oaks drift this afternoon. She's called Kissed
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Devastating performance by Kissed
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Yep certainly impressive. Dont think she beat much but you'd have to be one eyed to ignore the manner of her win. A sister to Pour Moi.
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did aiden obrien actually say that wading wouldnt be running in 1000, and unlikely in oaks, or in last 2 weeks the info was on here.shocking coolmore with 4th fav in 1000 and oaks fav
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thats my 20-1 Guineas voucher banjoed....
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I knew ryan moore would win the first classic of the season
 knew it...damn it |
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i'd be worried that kissed wouldn't like the better ground at epsom, looked to have a bit of knee action last time.... to my untrained eye of course that is.
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anyone know the latest on this filly, 3 fav for 1000, fav for oaks, and as far as i know friendless in the markets yet not a word from obrien about her.
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