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harry callaghan
18 Mar 12 18:28
Date Joined: 10 Nov 07
| Topic/replies: 6,078 | Blogger: harry callaghan's blog
Well thought this lovely filly deserves her own thread...sorry if there is already one but couldn't find it...

A january daughter of montjeu, out of Cherry Hinton a daughter of the great mare Urban Sea a beautiful pedigree for a classic horse.

Wading who was backward on debut in a large field maiden and also carrying plenty of condition found the more experienced madhmoonah to good on debut but rapid improvement since has seen her reach a very prominent position at the head of the 1000 guinneas and oaks betting...

Her next outing was just a mere maiden at dundalk when slamming subsequent winner Aloof by over 4 lengths in a time quite fast in comparison to other races ran that evening....

She then turned up at newmarket in the Rockfel Stakes a good and recognised guinneas trial...this was the first time we in england had seen the imposing daughter of montjeu, racing prominently as seems her want, the raking stride was there for all to see as she stamped her class against some decent fillies in what looked a very decent renewal of the race, it wasn't till the last furlong until she put the others to bed but in a race that was run at decent fractions she certainly doesn't lack gears and the extra furlong in the guinneas will suit as will the step up to at least a mile and a quarter....

I see some don't feel she has the necessary speed required to win a classic over a mile and she is outright favourite for the oaks but for me she has the speed as well as the stamina to mix it with the top milers before stepping up to a mile and a half in the oaks, the time she ran in the rockfel was faster than the dewhurst ran over the same course and distance and her prominent racing style will stand her in good stead at newmarket and at epsom

Maybe a stable mate of wading was pulled out of a subsequent run in the marcel boussac and obviously to me, all wasn't well with her, so for me now, has something to prove, also she will have to win where a huge amount of subsequent moyglare winners haven't or haven't gone on...the moyglare is a tough race for 2 year old fillies and it is no surprise there poor record in the year following guinneas...i maybe wrong about her and she is a top class filly but at the prices i would sooner take the 10's on the stable mate who for me has slightly better form anyway or at least on ratings anyway...

the good moving daughter of montjeu showed me at least, she is improving rapidly and the long raking stride shown at newmarket shows she is going to be a danger to all, come the classics...

hope others like her as much as i do and an investment has been had for both races....

just 2 months to go and thought she deserved her own thread as a future champion
Pause Switch to Standard View Wading dual classic winner...
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Report Howellsy March 18, 2012 7:57 PM GMT
I agree she was very impressive at Newmarket. I am on for the Oaks, as my only antepost investment, but I do fear she might lack the speed for the Guineas. Happy to be proved wrong though.
Report the bairn March 19, 2012 1:03 AM GMT
harry, i agree also, your write up has made me even more confident, i have bet her and Lyric of Light, if they both train on i'm confident of a return. cheers.
Report rhinestone March 19, 2012 6:02 PM GMT
I'm already on big for the Oaks harry Happy
Report harry callaghan March 19, 2012 6:58 PM GMT
yes think she is a top class prospect rhinestone and is the one 2 year old i am looking forward to seeing as a 3 year old...lovely moverHappy
Report roobuck March 19, 2012 7:02 PM GMT
Clearly a very nice filly with a pedigree to die for.

For me, Pimpernel's form in Dubai puts the Rockel in perspective with regards the Goldophin horses and the Guineas. I actually think that Maybe being pulled out of the Marcel Boussac is actually a positive, as she already had 5 races, was a Group 1 winner and actually had nothing to prove in that respect. As she had been on the go since early May, it was more likely that they didn't want to burn her out rather than there being a problem.

If you want to throw in stats like Moyglare winners, surely the Montjeu one with fillies and with 3yos at distances in Group races below 1M is more powerful. That being said, I am sure Coolmore are desperate to get Montjeu a Classic winner at a mile so a good chance she will pitch up.

I do like her chances for the Oaks but personally could not back her at the price. So many stables to play their hands yet and as I have not got any fancy prices, I would much rather back her at 4/5-1 after a run that proved her well being.

Good luck with your bets though Harry and I have no strong opinion on an alternative in either race yet
Report harry callaghan March 19, 2012 8:42 PM GMT
Have to disagree with that a tad roobuck...

If you look at a lot of 2 year old filly form in general it is very easy to pick the bones out of there form moving forwards as a lot of fillies don't go on...

I know maybe is a top class filly but i could pick the bones out of a lot of her form as as with a lot of 2 year old fillies that have faced her haven't moved forward since, this is a basic fact when backing fillies moving collina has won since in group 1 company then disappointed as has the improver over shorter lightening pearl, but not a single winner apart from them and the ascot race she won wasn't a good edition of the winners out of the moyglare...but because you cannot trust fillies form i'm not judging her on her collateral form this would be foolish because of what i said above...i don't see maybe missing the boussac as a positive myself as that was the aim and clearly this shows she wasn't right, which means we will be guessing her well being, but like you say if she preps we will, but if she doesn't 7-2 is short imo

Pimpernel who improved with every run last year went on to win a big field satisfactory listed race and has disappointed since, who knows she may not of trained on but looked a 2year old, mary fields beaten out of sight by pimpernel at newmarket has since turned round the form in dubai, this tells us all we need to know with fillies... the times ran at newmarket tells us the rockfel was well up to scratch and has been a recognised trial for many years, producing numerous guineas winners...

the thing you have to love about wading is the rapid improvement shown from one run to the next to the next improving almost a stone with each run, this makes me very confident that this filly will continue to improve, she wasn't the finished article at newmarket and think there is much more to come, like you say, maybe has had 5 runs already and that experience will be vital moving into the guineas but since the first renawal in 1982 the moyglare stud grade 1 hasn't produced a single guineas winner at newmarket...make what you will of stats but is worth baring in mind as it seems no coincidence to me...

agree on the montjeu angle but most of the progeny he has produced have been colts so we haven't been able to categorically say, he can't produce top class fillies...he has proved now to be able to produce top class horses at a range of distances but this filly showed plenty of toe and precocity for us to believe she can be affective at a true run mile at least early doors in the season and they will be training her to win the 1000 as well as the oaks moving forward...

personally roobuck you are looking at the race sensibly but just think this filly could be very special if she continues on the right track and don't by the montjeu angle as the sire continues to astound me...
Report roobuck March 19, 2012 10:48 PM GMT
Harry, I think you have assumed I like Maybe for the race which actually I don't. Don't get me wrong I would be more than happy if I had backed her at 33s like some on the 1000 thread, but whilst she has very solid form, she has never appealed from a visual perspective.

I was referring to Maybe simply to disagree with your comment about her missing the Boussac as a negative. Perhaps it being a positive is a stretch, but a lot of fillies that don't train on have been over raced as 2yos.

At one stage last season, it looked like it was going to be a vintage year for the 2yo fillies but in the end I thought they were just an average lot. This may prove very wide of the mark, but I actually think that Maybe's price is a reflection of doubts about the rest of the Group 1 contenders last year and nothing else coming forward to stake a real claim.

That may mean that Wading does have a decent chance but again on what they have achieved, if 8-1 is okay for her, then 7-2 for Maybe is not unreasonable. However neither are of interest to me at this stage.

But what I will say is that I admire you putting forward your opinion. You have a gut feeling that Wading could be very special, have backed it up with good arguments and if you are right then the current prices are obviously going to seem very attractive - I genuinely wish you well.
Report elisjohn March 20, 2012 6:11 AM GMT
having read this thread, ive asked a bookie friend to quote me wading for the oaks with a run , offered 5/1 ,  would anyone take that .
Report roobuck March 20, 2012 7:16 AM GMT
I would be surprised if AOB did not aim her at the Oaks so if I wanted to back her I would do it at the bigger price.
Report harry callaghan March 20, 2012 8:34 PM GMT
fair play roobuck and you have put my mind at rest to your original post...agree about the fillies but seems no different to any other year give or take a few pounds, agree though no stand out and i suppose thats why i like her so much as feel potentially she will improve past the others...time will tell but lots to like about her.
Report liberator of the oppressed March 20, 2012 9:26 PM GMT
I thought WAS looked really really impressive to the eye and that's my Oaks filly. Just something very good about it. Don't know about pedigree mind you. Perhaps somebody could advise?
Report sj March 21, 2012 1:49 PM GMT

in my opinion although by Galileo her family are not crying out oaks filly,saying that,i am far from an expert on the breeding side of the sport
Report DMCK March 21, 2012 9:04 PM GMT
really like this filly for the oaks, and if you were to ever breed a horse for epsom you'd get her. by an outandout epsom derby, sired pour moi, motivator and authorised,,, and from a family that excells at epsom STS and Galileo winners, dam cherry hinton was 5th at epsom oaks  in a career best performance, All Too Beautiful was second in epsom oaks  and black sam bellamy was 3rd in the cornation cup, all of these are the dams immediate famly, not to mention wonder of wonders was 2nd in the oask last year, i mean this is an epsom family through and through so im all over her fot the oaks and will back a full prother for the derby as soon as i see him declared or the racecource.
BUT the guineas is different, its about speed and turn of foot, while i really dont think montjeu will sire a G1 miler, i think if he was to it would be a similar profile to Wading, a group winner over 7f at 2 and showed great toe in doing so. however i cant be with her for the guineas and will be siding with a 6f group winner by a speeder sire.
Report Rowley Mile March 21, 2012 9:15 PM GMT
I will be shot down completely for this but last year's rockfel looks nearly as bad as the previous years' which was won by cape dollar. Out of the ten strong field, there were only two fillies who won races sunsequently (3 between them), a 3yo conditions race at navan for hurrican havoc. Submission managed a handicap win in nottingham off 79 and one at doncaster off 83. The whole field had at least 50 subsequent attempts to win and that's all that was yielded.

Aidan O'Brien wasn't represented at that 'trial' and 3 handed he managed 2nd,11th and 15th in the guineas. His horse that finished 11th was a dual g1 winning 2yo also.
Report DMCK March 21, 2012 9:32 PM GMT
Sunday Times form isnt tht bad 2nd to lightening pearl but maybe 7f was too far a a 2year old, Alsindi isa fair horse  and who knows how good Gamilati is and could be, Pimpernel shouldnt be written off she was clearly sent over the wrong trip last time out. not to say it was an outstanding g2 but iv seen far worse and in that year g2 filly contests not that many better
Report Rowley Mile March 21, 2012 9:38 PM GMT
Sunday times form was great and obviously something was amiss given the betting rings view on her that day. I'm just using it as an example of how we can read a lot into the winner being the best horse in the race that day but who knows what course will be taken and how much of a battering will the formbook take along the way this seas if any of them are to trouble the judge at all.
Report harry callaghan March 21, 2012 10:53 PM GMT
rowley mile how do you make out a comparison between cape dollars rockfel in comparison to wadings??

just explain to us, as i am perplexed by your analysis or should i say astonished. you then reel off about a load of form that doesn't concern us? what relevance does it have i mean to wading??
Report Rowley Mile March 21, 2012 11:38 PM GMT
O.k, it's obviously different but always possible people are getting carried away, no offence meant.
Report jamesp March 23, 2012 10:37 PM GMT
WADING is clearly a very smart prospect and I'm keen on her chances of picking up a major prize over middle distances this season (such as the Oaks), but there are several concerns that put me off backing her for the Guineas.  Firstly her pedigree screams middle distances (SEA THE STARS is her only close relative to have won over a mile or less at age 3+ in Europe, though to be fair not many have tried!) and I've no doubt that like all her family she will prove best at distances beyond a mile this season.  Secondly, I'm confident that MAYBE is still regarded by connections as their number one Guineas filly (and as such she merits considerable respect).  Thirdly, I'm sure that Godolphin do not regard their Rockfel runner-up PIMPERNEL in the same league as their main Guineas hopes (DISCOURSE, LYRIC OF LIGHT and GAMILATI).  Finally, whilst I was impressed by the manner of WADING's victory in the Rockfel, I have to say that the form looks a little shaky: the runner-up was a decent and progressive juvenile and went on to land a modest Listed race next time, but the third had only won a small-field maiden, the fourth had been beaten in two maidens, the fifth was unable to reproduce her Cheveley Park Stakes form and clearly ran below par, the sixth was well beaten in a Naas nursery next time, and the seventh had been well beaten in Listed and Group 3 races and has twice been trounced by GAMILATI at Meydan this year.  (Put it this way, I wouldn't want to back the Rockfel fourth BANA WU off her present handicap mark of 102!)

Having reeled off all those negatives, however, it would be folly to write off WADING's Guineas chances altogether.  As others have pointed out, the winning time for the Rockfel was fast and if she were to turn up at Newmarket for the Guineas she would command plenty of respect (even if jockey bookings and betting suggested that she was Ballydoyle's second string).  At around 12/1 (after the Rockfel) she was a cracking bet for the Oaks.

Harry, re: the record of Moyglare Stud Stakes runners in the Newmarket Guineas, SAYYEDATI won both races.  The Moyglare has varied enormously in quality over the years, but it has produced plenty of Group 1 (and Grade 1) winners at three, including CHIMES OF FREEDOM, SAYYEDATI, NICER, DANCE DESIGN, RYAFAN, TARASCON, SHAHTOUSH, HULA ANGEL, IMAGINE, SOPHISTICAT, SAOIRE, SIMPLY PERFECT, AGAIN, LILLIE LANGTRY and MISTY FOR ME.  It has also produced QUARTER MOON (runner-up in three Group 1's), TOGETHER (runner-up in three Group 1's, including the 1000 Guineas) and WANNABE GRAND (runner-up in the 1000 Guineas).  Many of these were trained by Aidan O'Brien...

Good luck with the bets!
Report jamesp March 24, 2012 8:21 AM GMT
Andrew Fletcher published an in-depth article on WADING earlier this month:
I wouldn't disagree with anything in his write-up.
Report harry callaghan March 26, 2012 8:18 PM BST
James there are bound to be plenty of group 1 winners from the moyglare as so many decent fillies contest it but it has been a graveyard for guineas winners apart from the top class sayyedati in 1990...personally since i have followed form it has always been a race to be wary of...agreed there have been varying degrees of quality down the years but the fact still remains it has a deplorable record with guineas runners, don't know why this is but the race appears to take a lot out of them...time may prove this wrong and maybe certainly looks a top class filly but considering she wasn't right to contest the marcel boussac, she is short enough here imo...and i will be taking her on with the stablemate who for me is not a slow horse who looks open to more improvement.
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle March 26, 2012 9:37 PM BST
From what i say yesterday, Maybe hacked all all over Wading yesterday over that 7f or what ever they did.

Can be no doubt in my mind under no circumstance will Wading beat Maybe over 1 mile.

Wading had to be shaken to get up the backside of Maybe which was desperate effort if anyone is even considering her for the Guineas.

Oaks would be interest but plenty of ability with Was and Kissed to consider as well as Maybe.
Report harry callaghan March 26, 2012 10:11 PM BST
interesting that maybe was sweating and tail swishing in the parade ring...

also of interest was o'briens comments after she galloped

1000 Guineas and Oaks favourite Maybe pleased in her work, with O'Brien saying: "She has done very well physically, it will be interesting to see what she is like when she comes home but she seems fine after today and we are very happy with where she is at the moment.

read what you will into these comments, it says to me he has had problems with her and is hoping she is alright when she gets home

wading has done very well physically by all accounts...interesting that you chose to base your reasoning around one gallop you have seen over a distance you are also not sure about...

got to love the pocket talking on here, brilliant...
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle March 26, 2012 10:21 PM BST
How am I pocket talking i havenet backed Maybe but I am seriously considering it now after that Gallop.

Wading had to pushed to get up with with Maybe who was swinging away on the Bridle. I don't know how you can gleam a positive about the 1000 Guineas re Wading. She looked either slow, lazy or a mixture of both. She could barely have done anything and i accept your point on one gallop. But a Montjeu Filly sets out all alarm bells, she looked like she was not interested. I be thinking she may head for the Musidora or something like that. She will not be ready for 1000 Guineas IMHO and I believe Maybe has by far the best form with a Group 1 wins.

I don't believe she will run now after that, she needs more time and clearly plenty of work to do. Maybe look far more furnished and professional.

AOB Can say she has 5 legs and I would not believe a word he says. Joseph rode her and rode the best in each lot, not that matters but for me its a indication that he will not get off her for anything what so ever.

Look at this operation in there History, everyone is always looking for potential and ignoring the one that has the best form in the book. Unbeaten Group 1 Winner, Galileo, Galloped all over her good group. I can not name a negative other than she is a Filly.

3/1 looks right!!!, I would not want to lay that price that is for sure
Report harry callaghan March 26, 2012 10:36 PM BST
well fair play good luck with your bet...i for one would never take complete notice of an early season gallop...but each to there don't know how much work they have done or who is a better worker...

of course joseph is not going to get off the favourite for the guineas...ryan was there to ride wading after winning the rockfel on her and i am also happy he will be on, come the big day...

if she doesn't turn up for the guineas i will be astonished, there is no better trial for the oaks than the guineas and she will not be out of place i can assure you, read into an early season gallop what you will.
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle March 26, 2012 10:57 PM BST
harry certainly not writing Wading for the Oaks and she is fav for a reason but I wonder could she go completely go the wrong way if they rush her. Filly's are difficult to predict at the best of times and I hate to see him rush her just for the sake of it. Just look at Wonders of Wonders last year all the ability in the World as she went sour quick and gave up the game. I hate to see them rush a filly for no reason just wait and be patient with her for me.

If she places and runs that be a excellent effort and really could put her on tune for the Oaks but for a race that is barely 4 weeks away I would have wanted to see a hell of a lot more personally.

Could be a very small field race if it cuts up, could be a field of 10 or less. Godolphin early season form woeful and already one on the sidelines but Ballydoyle arent exactly hot out of the blocks.  It may be a Guineas that may not take much winning just looking thru the field.

I believe Maybe has been underrated and I think the way she races suits a big galloping track like Newmarket and The Curragh. She can make her on running which may be very important come the race and really put these Fillies to the sword.

Once she is 100% confirmed for the race I am certainly on her. Hopefully she do the business and backing antepost especially Fillies is very very dangerous game but willing to make an exception Excited
Report harry callaghan March 26, 2012 11:18 PM BST
it is 6 weeks to the race not 4? so how are they rushing her?? your reasoning doesn't make sense to me, and have no wish to argue with you...

one other thing godolphin are in the best form i have seen them ever in meydan and al zarooni did a super job last year with his horses...good luck with maybe she is a worthy fav
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle March 26, 2012 11:34 PM BST
I just believe there after the gallop yesterday she didn't show enough to warrant her running in the 1000 guineas when the stable have the rock solid favorite. She has not got the anywhere near the tacital pace to win a guineas. I be surprised if she runs. But we will see soon enough what happens.and that is the beauty if having an opinion
Report the bairn March 27, 2012 12:32 AM BST
Ruby, you are definitely kidding us on, Wading followed Maybe all the way, never put to the sword at all, and could have passed her at anytime, Kissed did the same, all three looked to have flourished over the winter, but Wading was the one to impress. cheers.
Report roobuck March 27, 2012 10:38 AM BST
I agree with ruby that looking at that gallop I would much rather be with Maybe for the Guineas.

Very dangerous to draw any firm conclusions from a 1/2 speed workout, but what Maybe did was effortless. Whilst I think Ryan did need to ask Wading a small question she did respond and confirms the impression from last year that she could be a very good filly...but imo over a distance greater than 1 mile
Report jamesp March 27, 2012 10:47 AM BST
Harry, you mentioned earlier that MAYBE "wasn't right to contest the marcel boussac", but the yard never gave any reason for pulling her out of the race, so it's pure conjecture to state that she 'wasn't right'.  O'Brien routinely leaves horses in races until the final declaration stage and I have not heard or read anything to suggest that there was anything amiss with MAYBE.  Perhaps she had started to go in her coat or come into season, there could have been any number of reasons why they decided to call it a day for the season.  Anyway, the trip to the racecourse will have done both fillies the world of good and they're likely to be more forward (I hope) than MISTY FOR ME was last year!!
Report harry callaghan March 27, 2012 1:11 PM BST
jamesp listen all maybe well with her and hope she is as want to see if my theory is right on her...

what did you make of aiden's comments in regards to getting her home and hoping she is alright...

1000 Guineas and Oaks favourite Maybe pleased in her work, with O'Brien saying: "She has done very well physically, it will be interesting to see what she is like when she comes home but she seems fine after today and we are very happy with where she is at the moment.

what did you make of that...i made it out to mean, hope she is ok after the gallop.
Report sintonian March 27, 2012 1:50 PM BST
She is the applye of aidans eye. Every footstep is on an eggshell when you have a special horse so his comments reflect that,imo.
Report sintonian March 27, 2012 1:51 PM BST
Report sintonian March 27, 2012 1:56 PM BST
Agree with those who believe Wading wants a trip. In an ordinary year she might have a solid chance in a Guineas, a bit like Blue Bunting last year, but for me Maybe looks a powerhouse of a filly and will take all the beating. There is no guarantee Aidan will have Wading tuned-up, if she runs, either. Maybe on the other hand has an unbeaten record to protect.

Fwiw, the Maybe/Wading Guineas/Oaks double pays 40/1 at current prices if you want a £10 speculator.
Report roobuck March 27, 2012 2:29 PM BST
harry I really believe that if there had been a problem with Maybe before the Boussac, it would have come out. As I said earlier in the thread I think her missing that race was a positive and though it is a complete guess, probably because she was showings signs of 'I've had enough for this season'. Her Moyglare run showed no real improvement to my mind than her previous form with Rubina and perhaps they just decided it was time to stop.

Maybe never particularly appealed to me in her racing last year though her form was consistent and very solid. However I watched the gallop today with a view to Wading but eye was consistently drawn to Maybe and there is no doubt she looked fantastic.

Remember AOB was happy to mention the problem with Power - don't envisage any issues with Maybe and it was a stock answer that 'we'll see how they come out of today before making plans'

I have no financial interest but I think its going to take a very serious horse to beat Maybe though of course you think it will be Wading - and you may be right obviously
Report sintonian March 27, 2012 2:42 PM BST
I was surprised they even entered Maybe for the Boussac tbh. She had done all her running/winning and had nothing more to prove at that stage.
Report jamesp March 27, 2012 4:25 PM BST
The only thing I can think of, with regard to Aidan's comments, is that the filly has perhaps been showing signs of freshness or fizziness at home.  If so, the racecourse work-out will hopefully have dealt with the freshness and brought her on.
Report unclepuncle March 27, 2012 4:26 PM BST
Simply on form I think Wading's price for both classics is absymal value.Shocked

She obviously has the breeding and connections to go far (and the Oaks definitely looks a much more realsitic target than the 1,000) but that has been well and truely incorporated into her odds.
Report harry callaghan March 27, 2012 7:01 PM BST
What was bad value unclepunkle was when you put up noble prince at 6-1 for the ryanair chase...that was abysmal value...

well all the maybe fans have piped up and thats fair enough personally i am all over wading for the guineas and actually think on pedigree she is not guaranteed to get over a mile and a quarter...

I have been wrong before but am quite prepared to take maybe on at the 10-1 that is available as think she is a most progressive filly who doesn't lack pace...maybe is much more flashy and like i say she is a worthy fav

jamesp i am not sure and have scouring the net to try and find what i heard aiden say...I believe it was on breeders cup night but cannot back it up so apologies. I'm sure she is perfectly ok and like you say it is just freshness...
Report sintonian March 27, 2012 7:41 PM BST
''piped up'' ? Christ, Harry. We are discussing the merits of each horse. Clearly you wont have a bad word said against Wading, most probably because you have backed her, but she still has plenty to prove at this stage whether you choose to believe it or not.

The fact you are mentioning minor issues such as sweating and tail swishing in the paddock prior to the gallop suggests to me you are trying to find anything to give as a negative towards Maybe.

Anyway, as a Maybe fan I wont ''pipe up''.
Report harry callaghan March 27, 2012 7:44 PM BST
I feel the need to back my reasons for fancing her so much so will...

Like I have said in this thread about wading so won't back that up anymore...

I believe maybe has had training problems so am keen to get her as she is eating the market...just my opinion and like I say i could be wrong...she is a top class filly but that is shown in her price...

Lyric of light is an interesting filly but she is a march filly which is something always to bare in mind when betting a 1000 guineas horse...her form with samitar just worries me a tad and also feel she could be a better filly with cut...she is respected but her price is about right...

Discourse who looked a real tool when we last saw her, but had a training set back which forced her to miss the rest of the season is by street cry who is yet to produce a really top class turf horse imo...her pedigree is mixed and I cannot get an angle on her thing is for sure though, if she turns up her trainer can definitely ready one and she will warrant serious respect come the day if all is well with her again...

Elusive Kate was disappointing in the states and how much that has taken out of her who know's but until then she had been to prove herself now, hope she runs in a trial so we can find out how she has trained on...

lightening pearl won a weak renawal of the cheveley park for me but she is quite a likeable type and is slightly overpriced for this...not sure if she will be good enough but there are worse 20-1 shots...

La Collina is interesting as she beat the colts in the phoenix and was still a tad backward when running maybe close at leopardstown...I am happy to forgive her her run in the moyglare as it may have come a tad to soon after her run in the phoenix and for me is the value at around 20-1 if turning up...I have had a small saver on her as think she is to big for this. she is an april filly which is against her however.

I see there is money for the april filly diala and she looks progressive...she appeals for the season to come but not here...

Well that is where i am at, wadings raking stride will win the day...

we hopeGrin
Report harry callaghan March 27, 2012 7:58 PM BST
Sint no need to be like that...

but most of the feed back I have had on here is from people that have backed maybe...

I am against maybe, yes she is my angle into the race from a betting perspective...I don't have fancy prices on maybe so can look at the race subjectively...

like i said to you before sint i have no problems with picking the bones out of the horses i have backed and this helps, keep me honest...else you go into a race biased and unable to make a profit from it...

believe you me sint i will have no problems picking the bones out of wading after the race but for now, for me she is progressing at a rate of knots...there hasn't been much positive feed back from folk on here for the guineas but disagree with some who think she is just an oaks horse...we will see

but apologies for seeming to have a go but when people come on here telling me the race will come to soon when they don't even know how long it is to the race that is just amateur night and feel like i'm wasting my time...
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle March 27, 2012 8:15 PM BST
but apologies for seeming to have a go but when people come on here telling me the race will come to soon when they don't even know how long it is to the race that is just amateur night

That is aimed at me and I will explain myself. In training a race horse Wading will do no work until next week at the earliest after Sunday at The Curragh, she will have no serious Work the week before the race. So they have 4 weeks to work her into form, I can't believe you are even bringing this up as issue. Clearly training racehorses would not be your fortay, would you work the bollocks of them the week of the race for goodness sake no. She need to progress every week and take her work and eat up every week for the next 4.

She did not make it out to the track until Sep last year Maybe was early May. Nearly 4 months between the 2 debuts. What does that tell you, Wading took time to come to hand, Maybe didn't? What do they also say Guineas is the last 2yr old race of the season. Wading ran at Dundalk FFS ,when has a Classic winner ever run won a 2yr old Maiden at Dundalk. Her Rockfel victory was decent but no Group 1 Horses in there.

She is a Montjeu Filly, she looked lethargic at The Curragh, No Montjeu winners over 1 mile, Montjeu Filly's are horrific to deal with. Cherry Hinton was a Group 3 Horse at best.

At best she have a solid e/w chance in The Oaks.

You talk about Maybe fans looking with tinted glasses, every single negative against Wading we bring up you ignore. You say she is progressing at a rate of knots but that is pure conjecture with no fact form or substance to back it up.

Wading may win the Oaks she may improve past Maybe come Autumn but there is no way she can win a 1000 Guineas and for my money she won't turn up to the show.
Report roobuck March 27, 2012 8:26 PM BST
She need to progress every week and take her work and eat up every week for the next 4.

To be fair ruby so will any horse that is going to win the Guineas

Wading ran at Dundalk FFS ,when has a Classic winner ever run won a 2yr old Maiden at Dundalk.

Were similar things said about Ghanaati before the Guineas win?
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle March 27, 2012 8:33 PM BST
Even look at her form, nothing came from behind so Wading had the complete run of the race in the Rockfel she sat behind the rags and the Rag from Hills yard finished only 2 and bit lengths behind her. Pimpernal was given a horrific ride gave her what 5l from the start. There can be holes in that form, look at the cash even lining up to lay her between 400 odd to lay her from 8.5-9.5. The Stable Lads obviously are keen to take her on as there is what 30 quid to back her.

If you look at the Oaks she is falling in price and Maybe is going the other way. The Vibes don't look good.

Roobuck Aidan O Brien is a creature of Habit, I have no seen a 2yr old Maiden winner at Dundalk from this stable ever do anything as a 3yr old to warrant Classic hype.

DO you not agree roobuck that she did not look good in comparsion to Maybe in terms of travelling on the Bridle. Her fortay is here ability to hit top gear and stay there rather than quicken in a few strides. If the stable have the fav I don't see why they have to start throwing darts at the board like they do when they have loads of fillies and none of them are any good.

Wading as I have said before and will repeat did not look like she was ready to win a 1000 Guineas there and its pure speculation to say Maybe had a hiccup to boot.

Its all about opinions and I respect Harry's very much as he had rightly pointed out how impressive she has been but there is a very strong counter to that in the 1000 Guineas picture.

Good Debate tho

Even the form looks dodgy, just because it was a Future Champions Day Race doesn't mean it was the best Filly race in Europe.

Good Debate tho
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle March 27, 2012 8:38 PM BST
Post got messed around there last lads. Lines moved on me.

My Bad

And before some says it yes i have described that both horses are different in terms of there race style but my point is if Wading had to push to get to Maybe backside what would stop Maybe from quickening in a heartbeat and putting daylight between the 2. Thats my big point, Maybe should get 1 mile, she can quicken and can stay(fingers crossed) she is not a Rainbow View type a small framed horse who may not train on.

Wading for me can not quicken as well and has a staying style of racing, Big top cruising gear when she gets going but will the race be over before she hits top stride and she showed this when she keep up a fairly good gallop in the Rockfel all the way to the post and past.
Report unclepuncle March 27, 2012 9:40 PM BST
Harry - no need to be so touchy.Cry

I seem to remember you being equally touchy when I told you in no uncertain terms that Peddlars Cross wasn't fit to lick Sprinter Scares shoes (over hurdles or fences) well before Christmas. And I obviously won't mention Gan Amhras again Laugh
Report jamesp March 27, 2012 10:34 PM BST
I'm pleased (and a tad surprised) that I've managed to lay WADING for the Guineas at 9.2 and 9.4 this evening, considering she can still be backed at 9/1 (10.0) with at least one of the major bookmakers... The 10/1 seems to have dried up.  Clearly she has her supporters for the Guineas.
Report unclepuncle March 28, 2012 10:19 AM BST
For what it's worth, and this is not a personal attack Harry so stay calmLove, I'd suggest on actual form and breeding she should be about 20/1 for the Guineas.

Her single figure price for the Guineas now is either down to some seriously impressive homework (which obviously I have no knowledge of so can't take into account), perhaps also combined with the knowledge that her stablemate and Guineas favourite Maybe is not 100% which will clearly have a big impact on the stables plans and the market (again nothing I have any knowledge of) all of which has seen her supported by those in the know.

Or it's just the usual bookie games that happen at this time of year with horses shortening for no real financial reason.

For he record my only antepost bets are on Discourse at 16/1 (glad to see she is solid enough in the market but I haven't read anything about her wellbeing since her injury so I'm still half tempted to lay off), and a throw away bet on Lightening Pearl at 25/1 simple because I felt she was too big a price for a Cheverly Park winner, and while there are stamina doubts her breeding certainly suggests a mile is likely to suit.
Report Lance in France March 30, 2012 12:01 PM BST
Slashed across the High Street bookies boards the last 2 days. Hills 7 into 5, Lads 8 into 6, 365 9 into 13/2 etc etc.  Thats in the Oaks market
Report Lance in France March 30, 2012 12:02 PM BST
Just checked the guineas market. Same story there.
Report jamesp March 30, 2012 7:06 PM BST
The market move for WADING (in both races) is interesting, but I'll remain opposed to her in the Guineas market until there is some definite news.  There aren't too many opportunities for Guineas fillies in Ireland before the big race, so Aidan may be forced to bring MAYBE and/or WADING over for the trial races at Newmarket and Newbury if he wants to get a run into them.  Aidan said after the racecourse gallops on Sunday that plans would be made in the next 10 days (i.e. next week), as the horses start getting into faster work.  This will indicate whether WADING has the speed to enter the Guineas picture.  My guess is that MAYBE, as the speedier of the two fillies, will remain at the forefront of Guineas plans, provided all is well with her at home...
Report jamesp April 7, 2012 5:26 PM BST
BANA WU failed to enhance the Rockfel form this afternoon at Kempton.  Beaten nearly 4 lengths when fourth behind WADING last October, she was beaten by a similar margin today in the fillies' conditions race over a mile, finishing 7th behind six fillies who are all officially rated between 80 and 92.  It's just one piece of evidence, admittedly, but the Rockfel form desperately needs a boost!
Report lobster luck April 7, 2012 6:15 PM BST
I don't think the Rockfel needs a boost to validate Wading as a top class prospect; indeed considering her pedigree and the trip I think you can only see positives.  We sometimes consider too much the form of the animals in behind.  You can only beat what is in front of you.  It was a quicker time than the Dewhurst and Wading was green when hitting the front and could have won by further.  I agree with James that she is potentially better over the Oaks trip but I would think she will line up at Newmarket.  They usually go quick in the guineas and Wading will certainly be finishing imo. IF Maybe is considered vastly superior (which if the betting is any indication, she is not) I would expect Wading to take in York on route to Epsom.
Report sintonian April 8, 2012 9:39 AM BST
Going purely on breeding doesn't always work out though. Given the nature of recent results in the Oaks I think the current singlefigure price about Wading is bad value to be honest.

The Oaks is often a race where a leading contender can sprout from nowhere.
Report lobster luck April 8, 2012 10:49 AM BST
I do agree about the current price for both races being poor.  I am on at 12s for the Oaks which I felt was good value.  Take your point about breeding but when Montjeu is there we do have a bit more to hang an opinion on.  Wading is shorter now than Alexandrova was at this point in her year which does add weight to a general picture antepost value being squeezed by the bookies.  The Coolmore boys did get well and truely stuck into her before her reappearance and after (defeat to Short Skirt at York)  I think Sintonians point about an Oaks filly coming from nowhere is very valid but at this stage its Wading for me.
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle April 19, 2012 10:05 PM BST
Maybe working the gallops down at Ballydoyle....price has crashed from near 4/1 into a strong 5/2 now.

Wading on the drift out to 20s for a liability of 2k. Game up fella's
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle April 19, 2012 10:07 PM BST
But for the Oaks

She has fallen in price to clear 11/2 fav. Seems very logical the plans now. Maybe out to near 15/1 for the Oaks.

Wading Oaks
Maybe Guineas(Irish English and Royal Ascot)
Report elisjohn April 21, 2012 7:47 PM BST
maybe on the move in oaks market , £200 someone wants to nback her, ive just layed over a ton at 8.4
Report elisjohn April 21, 2012 7:48 PM BST
my lay went in seconds
Report BJG April 21, 2012 8:14 PM BST
Maybe very strong for the oaks today indeed Shocked

Problems with Wading?? Think she is tailor made for the oaks tbh
Report elisjohn April 21, 2012 8:30 PM BST
seeing the 1000 market with wading, and support for maybe for 1000 and oaks , surely problem with wading, but its ridicilous that 2 weeks away from classics no info from coolmore, i could get more out of n korea Grin
Report Lance in France April 24, 2012 9:04 AM BST
Drifter on the Oaks market on here, with Maybe moving in the opposite direction. Injured perhaps?
Report lives with his mum April 25, 2012 2:52 PM BST
Out of the 1000G
Report unclepuncle April 25, 2012 3:20 PM BST
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Report Lance in France April 25, 2012 3:58 PM BST
Ok, is it that they are going for the Oaks preparation via York as with Alexandrova, or has there been a setback? Answers on a postcard.......
Report sintonian April 25, 2012 3:59 PM BST
Injury setback or will we never know?
Report lobster luck April 27, 2012 7:51 PM BST
badblokes have removed her from the Oaks market - must be injured
Report elisjohn April 27, 2012 8:29 PM BST
the signs on here for 2 weeks now, why couldnt obrien tell us last sunday instead of waffling
Report BJG April 29, 2012 4:02 PM BST
Report alanc1 April 29, 2012 4:20 PM BST
Think you have seen the reason for the Oaks drift this afternoon. She's called Kissed
Report Masterminded April 29, 2012 4:42 PM BST
Devastating performance by Kissed
Report sintonian April 29, 2012 5:40 PM BST
Yep certainly impressive. Dont think she beat much but you'd have to be one eyed to ignore the manner of her win. A sister to Pour Moi.
Report elisjohn April 30, 2012 1:00 PM BST
did aiden obrien actually say that wading wouldnt be running in 1000, and unlikely in oaks, or in last 2 weeks the info was on here.shocking coolmore with 4th fav in 1000 and oaks fav
Report Roger De Bris April 30, 2012 3:33 PM BST
thats my 20-1 Guineas voucher banjoed....Cry
Report harry callaghan May 6, 2012 4:33 PM BST
I knew ryan moore would win the first classic of the seasonCrySadGrinknew it...damn it
Report duffy May 6, 2012 10:26 PM BST
i'd be worried that kissed wouldn't like the better ground at epsom, looked to have a bit of knee action last time.... to my untrained eye of course that is.
Report elisjohn May 9, 2012 2:36 PM BST
anyone know the latest on this filly, 3 fav for 1000, fav for oaks, and as far as i know friendless in the markets yet not a word from obrien about her.
Report lobster luck May 9, 2012 4:38 PM BST
Has to have had a setback.  Probable race against time that they appear to have lost judging by 1/2 the bookies no-longer quoting and the weakness on here.  Would have been nice to have been told although some blame must lie with the tv interviewrs who have not asked the question!
Report duffy May 9, 2012 5:25 PM BST
agreed lobster, nick luck was talking to o'brien today about his oaks fillies and didn't ask him where they are at with wadingCry
Report elisjohn May 9, 2012 5:28 PM BST
thats absolutely pathetic , duffy. god what do they get paid for. do you know what obrien did tell him ?
Report sintonian May 9, 2012 5:33 PM BST
I am going to tweet Nick Luck & Lydia Hislop to inform them of the drift on here and the fact she is still prominant in the betting with the bookies who have her quoted so they can try and find out.
Report lobster luck May 9, 2012 5:44 PM BST
Nice one Sintonian; I have seen Mrs o'brien reply to Nick Luck before.  In the past couple of weeks a few hundred has been "traded" on here but I suspect that has been fishing by those in the know.
Report Lance in France May 10, 2012 7:52 PM BST
Not entered in the Musidora. The final nail one would think.
Report duffy May 11, 2012 12:17 AM BST
the conversation between o'brien and luck for information purposes was a non-event, usual old stuff , she'll come on blah blah, earlier in the day though they had mike dillon on and he went as far as to say it didn't look like wading was going to make it and as it is ladbrokes of all the bookies that we associate with having a direct line to ballydoyle, it looks like curtains.
Report jimq May 11, 2012 9:14 AM BST
I e-mailed the AOB fansite about Wadings going for the Oaks & if she was injured. The reply was "on course for Epsom". I then asked what prep race she was going for & the reply was that she is not entered in anything yet but wont be going to the Irish 1000 guineas.
Report sintonian May 11, 2012 1:21 PM BST
No reply from twitter.
Report BJG May 14, 2012 7:54 PM BST
O'Brien could have three representatives in the Investec Oaks and added: "Maybe and Kissed will go straight for Epsom and we could look at the race for Was, who we might run at Naas on Thursday, as well. Wading didn't come right in the spring and I don't want to force her so I'd be surprised if she makes Epsom."
Report liberator of the oppressed June 1, 2012 6:14 PM BST
20th March thread go on Lib go on WAS. Just watched it on fast forward (x30) and nearly had an MI. Topped up at 65 and it is sooo good.
Report LionelHutz July 22, 2012 1:58 PM BST
What has happened to this filly?
it's looking increasingly like we'll never see her on a race course again.
Report elisjohn July 22, 2012 9:59 PM BST
fav for oaks at one stage, yet not a murmur from coolmore about her, disgraceful
Report LionelHutz July 22, 2012 11:12 PM BST
agreed elis,ive no doubt she's been retired (and they haven't bothered telling the public)
Been a daughter of the great Montjeu and given he's passed away this year and she already has some black type to her name.
ive no doubt we've seen the last of her on a race course.
Report BJG July 25, 2012 4:52 PM BST
Entered for Irish Champion Stakes
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