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BJG
02 Mar 12 22:23
Joined:
Date Joined: 20 Aug 07
| Topic/replies: 29,810 | Blogger: BJG's blog
1     65127-     Premio Loco168     8     9-5     Chris Wall         113     109     117
2     111-     Beaten Up154     4     9-3     William Haggas         119     121     134
3     54-080     Fanunalter23     6     9-3     Marco Botti         —     87     109
4     1/81-6     All The Winds56J     7     9-0     Shaun Lycett         83     75     102
5     0841-1     Billyford78     7     9-0     Liam Roche         —     84     101
6     83634-     Black Spirit189     5     9-0     Clive Cox         104     106     118
7     23701-     Cai Shen199     4     9-0     Richard Hannon         105     111     123
8     1/219-     Charles Camoin282     4     9-0     Sylvester Kirk         90     108     109
9     64620-     Circumvent98     5     9-0     Paul Cole         98     98     121
10     1-1100     Emerald Wilderness23     8     9-0     Robert Cowell         —     109     114
11     7033-6     Field Of Dream64     5     9-0     Jamie Osborne         —     90     116
12     02261-     Glor Na Mara127     4     9-0     J S Bolger         —     90     98
13     12-141     Junoob28     4     9-0     Tom Dascombe         95     102     116
14     121-73     Loyalty28     5     9-0     Derek Shaw         102     99     120
15     78-278     Lyssio44     5     9-0     Michael Attwater         98     102     114
16     63-900     Mantoba23     4     9-0     Brian Meehan         —     99     116
17     005-3     Mataaleb23     5     9-0     Lydia Pearce         83     —     —
18     03-503     Mister Green24     6     9-0     David Flood         62     76     89
19     2318-7     Our Joe Mac28     5     9-0     Richard Fahey         101     50     103
20     199-31     Reachforthebucks40     4     9-0     Jane Chapple-Hyam         82     84     101
21     60815-     Riggins122     8     9-0     Ed Walker         98     99     119
22     0235-4     Suits Me64     9     9-0     David Barron         —     106     120
23     224-16     Tappanappa28     5     9-0     Andrew Balding         79     87     105
24     118-15     True To Form28     5     9-0     Ronald Harris         92     95     111
25     5361-4     War Is War41     4     9-0     E J O´Neill         —     —     114
26     2-U119     Emma´s Gift28     4     8-11     Julia Feilden         92     102     113
27     2-1539     Flavia Tatiana29     4     8-11     A P O´Brien         —     83     107
28     26845-     Myplacelater183     5     8-11     Richard Fahey         102     94     119
29     170-30     Oceanway28     4     8-11     Mark Johnston         95     84     102
30     472-81     Sooraah37     5     8-11     William Haggas         —     114     125
31     11-422     Tinshu28     6     8-11     Derek Haydn Jones         94     111     116
32     45726-     Vivacious Vivienne237     6     8-11     Donal Kinsella         —     71     121



Favourites:    Beaten Up (2) , Premio Loco (9/2) , Fanunalter (8) , Junoob (8) , Circumvent (12) , Myplacelater (12) , Black Spirit (14) , Cai Shen (14) , Emerald Wilderness (14) , Loyalty (14) , Field Of Dream (16) , Our Joe Mac (16) , Sooraah (16) , Suits Me (18) , Flavia Tatiana (20) , Oceanway (20) , Riggins (20) , Vivacious Vivienne (20) , War Is War (20) , All The Winds (25)  - Others  25 or more
Pause Switch to Standard View **Blue Square Winter Derby (Group 3)**
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Report Rowley Mile March 2, 2012 10:40 PM GMT
Beaten up obviously didn't head to dubai ???
Report BJG March 2, 2012 11:05 PM GMT
Nt sure - looks a weak renewal with 3/4 standouts, nothin else can win
Report BJG March 2, 2012 11:05 PM GMT
I wont say weak renewal actually - it lacks depth is a better way to put it Silly
Report Rowley Mile March 2, 2012 11:47 PM GMT
Safe to say fanunalter and most of luca's string have lost it, might be tempted with premio loco when more firms price it up.
Report Rowley Mile March 2, 2012 11:47 PM GMT
Junoob also seriously on the improve but probably not up to this class.
Report BJG March 3, 2012 12:07 AM GMT
Beaten Up - Premio Loco - Junoob and Fanunalter if he finds some form


Between the 4 of them - id be interested in Junoob ew, wait for a few more firms to price up tho - will get bigger i reckon
Report sintonian March 3, 2012 11:18 AM GMT
Agreed.
Report BJG March 5, 2012 3:26 PM GMT
At The Races ‏ @AtTheRaces  Reply  Retweet  Favorite · Open
News: Fanunalter takes a break: Fanunalter is to miss the Blue Square Winter Derby at Lingfield later this month
Report taffy March 7, 2012 5:53 PM GMT
If Beaten Up shows up its game over. This thing is Group One and will be better again over a longer trip.
Report stevo1 March 9, 2012 8:27 AM GMT
Got winner i think will tell after Cheltenham, when i have taken price if any money left after Festival lol!
Report stevo1 March 16, 2012 10:53 PM GMT
Looks like 2 have gone already?
Report TheDoc March 17, 2012 4:20 PM GMT
What do you fancy Stevo1? I think it's a good betting heat at the moment, Premio Loco looks like the class horse if he turns up (I'm ignoring Beaten Up who won't run)but doesn't really stay 1m2f and had his chance a couple of years ago. Does he carry a penalty as a group 2 winner last year?

Junoob shouldn't be good enough, the Trial for this was a woeful race with Tinshu the yardstick there showing the form was nothing great. I fancy two at slightly bigger prices who should be good enough (horses rated in double figures need not apply really).

How many bookies do we think will price this up? I don't want to get too involved until the draw as a double figure draw will be a massive disadvantage.
Report stevo1 March 19, 2012 3:56 PM GMT
Billies and Badblokes priced up now amongst others, will wait tbc, jockey booked.
Report BJG March 19, 2012 6:04 PM GMT
Premio Loco (USA) 8    9 5
All The Winds (GER) 7    9 0
Black Spirit (USA) 5    9 0
Cai Shen (IRE) 4    9 0
Charles Camoin (IRE) 4    9 0
Circumvent (GB) 5    9 0
Emerald Wilderness (IRE) 8    9 0
Junoob (GB) 4    9 0
Loyalty (GB) 5    9 0
Lyssio (GER) 5    9 0
Mister Green (FR) 6    9 0
Our Joe Mac (IRE) 5    9 0
Riggins (IRE) 8    9 0
Suits Me (GB) 9    9 0
War Is War (IRE) 4    9 0
Emma's Gift (IRE) 4    8 11
Myplacelater (GB) 5    8 11
Sooraah (GB) 5    8 11
Tinshu (IRE) 6    8 11
Vivacious Vivienne (IRE) 6    8 11
Report BJG March 21, 2012 11:15 AM GMT
Cai Shen bein absolutely smashed upShocked
Report TheDoc March 21, 2012 11:24 AM GMT
Looks like Cai Shen will be running then, very happy about that as I've backed Cai Shen and Circumvent. They look two of the more likely sorts to give their running but their chances can still be massively compromised by the draw so 1 and 2 would be nice!
Report stevo1 March 21, 2012 5:44 PM GMT
As long as not double figure draw,dependant on how many show.
Report bestmate March 21, 2012 5:50 PM GMT
Who rides Cai Shen?
Report TheDoc March 21, 2012 5:59 PM GMT
Pretty sure Richard Hughes said on Twitter that he takes the ride. None of Hannon's are jocked up yet on Saturday so assume he'll be on all of them.
Report twm. March 21, 2012 6:04 PM GMT
Jamie Spencer is down to ride Cai Shen.
Report TheDoc March 21, 2012 6:06 PM GMT
Where did you find that out twm? Think that's a good booking as long as he rides him prominently.
Report twm. March 21, 2012 6:09 PM GMT
On the BHA racing admin site.
Report Dark Destroyer March 22, 2012 12:35 PM GMT
Cal Shen (13) & Premio Loco (11) done no favours by the draw.

Junoob for me (2) even though he is held up more often than not.

1(11)
765127-
Full form    PREMIO LOCO (USA) 168 CATR Tracker
ch g Prized - Crazee Mental    8 9 - 5   
G Baker
C F Wall
113
2(6)
283634-
Full form    BLACK SPIRIT (USA) 189 ATR Tracker
b g Black Minnaloushe - L'extra Honor    5 9 - 0t   
A Kirby
C G Cox
104
3(13)
323701-
Full form    CAI SHEN (IRE) 199 DATR Tracker
ch c Iffraaj - Collada    4 9 - 0   
J P Spencer
R Hannon
105
4(12)
164620-
Full form    CIRCUMVENT 98 DATR Tracker
ch g Tobougg - Seren Devious    5 9 - 0   
J Fortune
P F I Cole
98
5(5)
21-1100
Full form    EMERALD WILDERNESS (IRE) 23 CDATR Tracker
b g Green Desert - Simla Bibi    8 9 - 0p   
Jim Crowley
R M H Cowell
95
6(2)
112-141
Full form    JUNOOB 28 CDATR Tracker
ch g Haafhd - Faydah    4 9 - 0b   
R Kingscote
Tom Dascombe
99
7(1)
121-738
Full form    LOYALTY 14 CATR Tracker
b g Medicean - Ecoutila    5 9 - 0v   
J Fanning
D Shaw
97
8(7)
378-278
Full form    LYSSIO (GER) 44 DATR Tracker
b g Motivator - Lysuna    5 9 - 0h1   
T P Queally
M J Attwater
98
9(8)
32318-7
Full form    OUR JOE MAC (IRE) 28 DATR Tracker
b g Celtic Swing - Vade Retro    5 9 - 0v1   
T Hamilton
R A Fahey
100
10(9)
060815-
Full form    RIGGINS (IRE) 122 CATR Tracker
b g Cape Cross - Rentless    8 9 - 0   
J-P Guillambert
Ed Walker
98
11(14)
0235-48
Full form    SUITS ME 21 CDBFATR Tracker
ch g Bertolini - Fancier Bit    9 9 - 0   
T E Durcan
T D Barron
96
12(3)
826845-
Full form    MYPLACELATER 183 DBFATR Tracker
ch m Where Or When - Star Welcome    5 8 - 11   
P Hanagan
R A Fahey
102
13(4)
472-819
Full form    SOORAAH 14 ATR Tracker
b m Dubawi - Al Persian    5 8 - 11   
R L Moore
W J Haggas
108
14(10)
45726-3
Full form    VIVACIOUS VIVIENNE (IRE) 22 DATR Tracker
b m Dubai Destination - Epistoliere    6 8 - 11   
L Morris
D Kinsella
101
Report roobuck March 22, 2012 1:24 PM GMT
Though she had a realtively poor season last year, on the pick of her form at this distance, Myplacelater has as good a chance as anything.

Decent draw, new stable may freshen her up and 14s is worth a small interest e/w
Report stevo1 March 22, 2012 4:56 PM GMT
Bad draws doc.
Report TheDoc March 22, 2012 5:47 PM GMT
Yeah I hoped at least one would get a good draw! My third choice was Vivacious Vivienne and she's in 10 so my tricast doesn't look too hot. Having said that you can do alright from out there, just need to break fast and get a good position. Most of the pace seems high this year so might not be a disaster if the low drawn horses take a pull and the high drawn horses shuffle across.

I think it's impossible to find a perfect horse for the race this year, the better horses are coming into it without a run, the draw has hit some strong fancies, quite a few are better over shorter, a couple are better over further. Even Junoob, who looks pretty solid, doesn't exactly look the winner if you look at his formlines with Tinshu who was 25/1 for this race before being withdrawn. Probably means a length will separate about six horses.
Report Pinza March 23, 2012 12:19 AM GMT
Tom Dascombe has improved Junoob from a class 6 gelding to a Listed winner in only four races.
Also similarly improved the filly Libys Dream from class 5 to Listed winner in five races.

I'm not sure what has changed at Manor House Stables (the swimming pool?) but he has certainly made his mark this year with those two.

Amy Weaver and Mike Mullineax are probably wondering what they missed in those two.

I'm taking the improvement to continue on Saturday. Check out the similarities with previous winner Adiemus in 2002.
Report Racecaller08 March 23, 2012 12:16 PM GMT
Trends for the past 10 runnings (http://tinyurl.com/6q35egc):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-1-1
4yo: 5-5-48
5yo: 0-8-35
6yo: 4-1-25
7yo+: 1-5-25
Since the inauguration of this race in 1998, 13 of 14 winners were aged 4 to 6.
The only winner aged 7+ was a multiple listed winner that was trained in Italy, having his first run in GB.

Official Rating
Horses rated 100 or higher: 8-14-69
Horses rated 99 or lower: 1-5-44
Horses with no rating: 1-1-20
9 of last 10 winners were officially rated 100 or higher and the exception did not have an official rating as it was his first start in Britain but did win a listed race by 2 lengths on previous start.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 others finished 2nd & 4th in listed, other was 10th in group 1)
10 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 all-weather starts
7 of 10 winners had already run that year (3 of last 4 were having first run that year)
9 of 10 winners won over 1M 2F or further
8 of 10 winners had previously run 1 to 5 times on the all-weather
10 of 10 winners had previously won on the all-weather
6 of 10 winners had won at Lingfield (2 of 4 exceptions were having first course start)
10 of 10 winners had won at class 2 level or above
Since the race became a group 3, 5 of 6 winners had won a listed or group race
10 of 10 winners had won a race worth 14K+

Other Races
Lingfield Winter Derby Trial winner (Junoob): 1191296 (3-1-7)
lingfieldpark.co.uk Handicap winner (Emerald Wilderness): 161620 (2-1-6)
4 of 10 winners had run in the Lingfield Winter Derby Trial, finishing 1113
3 of 10 winners had won Lingfield handicap over 1M 2F to 1M 4F in Jan/Feb
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in the Quebec Stakes, finishing 51
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in the Churchill Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in the Wildflower Stakes, finishing 92
2 of 10 winners ran in the James Seymour Stakes, finishing 23

Trainers
Richard Hannon (1-1-6) is the only trainer with a runner this year to have trained the winner in the past 10 years.
Clive Cox (0-1-1) saddled the runner-up last year. David Barron hasn’t saddled a runner in this in past 10 years, his last runner in the race was Sergeant York in 2001, who won at 25/1.

Draw
Horses drawn 1 to 7: 7-8-70
Horses drawn 8 to 14: 3-12-64
There is slight preference for horses drawn 7 or lower.

Price
8 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below.
No very strong trend on the prices with 8 of the 10 winners coming from the first 5 in the betting but there have been a few surprises at 25/1 and 14/1 in last 10 years.
Favourites (5-1-12) have won of 5 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 4.25.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 4 to 6
•    Officially rated 100+
•    Won last time out (or ran well in a class 1 race)
•    Won over 1M 2F+
•    Won 1 of last 2 all-weather starts
•    Previously run 1 to 5 times on the all-weather
•    Course winner (or having first start at Lingfield)
•    Won at listed or group race worth 14K+
•    Drawn 1 to 7
•    Priced 8/1 or below
Report Racecaller08 March 23, 2012 12:34 PM GMT
Official Ratings should read:
Horses rated 100 or higher: 9-15-70
Horses rated 99 or lower: 0-4-43
Horses with no rating (in GB): 1-1-21
Report stevo1 March 24, 2012 5:51 PM GMT
Was on Circumvent e/w ran a cracker despite drifting for last 2 days in market,little saver on Loco as was too big a price.
So much for draw, as higher nos got in position due to lack of pace.
Report li March 24, 2012 6:19 PM GMT
Stevo 1, Congratulations on backing the winner and the big odds third each way. Shame you didn't see fit to name either of them on this thread until two hours after they crossed the line.
Report stevo1 March 25, 2012 3:18 PM BST
Li was on hols mate at Festival sure you were? Sorry bout that,if you read thread correctly think you may have been able to work out horse i backed.
So not on here as regular as usual,fwiw only had little saver on Loco just about made profit as main bet on Circumvent to win!
Report li March 26, 2012 7:30 AM BST
Stevo1, I was still smarting from having backed Cai Shen (before the draw came out) when posting the above. Thanks for a more gracious reply than it merited. Got one for the Lincoln yet?
Report stevo1 March 27, 2012 5:06 PM BST
Fine Li he was bit unlucky tbh,waiting for draw re Lincoln not my fav race, at moment Smarty Socks fwiw big improver last season, maybe too high in handicap now?
Report stevo1 March 29, 2012 11:47 AM BST
Smarty Socks drawn 22 of 22, have also backed Cocozza @ 10s. Good luck with any selections, cant wait for Aintree tbh.
Report li March 29, 2012 10:22 PM BST
Have backed Light From Mars ew. Agree Cocozza an intriguing runner.
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