Horse Antepost
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1 65127- Premio Loco168 8 9-5 Chris Wall 113 109 117
2 111- Beaten Up154 4 9-3 William Haggas 119 121 134
3 54-080 Fanunalter23 6 9-3 Marco Botti — 87 109
4 1/81-6 All The Winds56J 7 9-0 Shaun Lycett 83 75 102
5 0841-1 Billyford78 7 9-0 Liam Roche — 84 101
6 83634- Black Spirit189 5 9-0 Clive Cox 104 106 118
7 23701- Cai Shen199 4 9-0 Richard Hannon 105 111 123
8 1/219- Charles Camoin282 4 9-0 Sylvester Kirk 90 108 109
9 64620- Circumvent98 5 9-0 Paul Cole 98 98 121
10 1-1100 Emerald Wilderness23 8 9-0 Robert Cowell — 109 114
11 7033-6 Field Of Dream64 5 9-0 Jamie Osborne — 90 116
12 02261- Glor Na Mara127 4 9-0 J S Bolger — 90 98
13 12-141 Junoob28 4 9-0 Tom Dascombe 95 102 116
14 121-73 Loyalty28 5 9-0 Derek Shaw 102 99 120
15 78-278 Lyssio44 5 9-0 Michael Attwater 98 102 114
16 63-900 Mantoba23 4 9-0 Brian Meehan — 99 116
17 005-3 Mataaleb23 5 9-0 Lydia Pearce 83 — —
18 03-503 Mister Green24 6 9-0 David Flood 62 76 89
19 2318-7 Our Joe Mac28 5 9-0 Richard Fahey 101 50 103
20 199-31 Reachforthebucks40 4 9-0 Jane Chapple-Hyam 82 84 101
21 60815- Riggins122 8 9-0 Ed Walker 98 99 119
22 0235-4 Suits Me64 9 9-0 David Barron — 106 120
23 224-16 Tappanappa28 5 9-0 Andrew Balding 79 87 105
24 118-15 True To Form28 5 9-0 Ronald Harris 92 95 111
25 5361-4 War Is War41 4 9-0 E J O´Neill — — 114
26 2-U119 Emma´s Gift28 4 8-11 Julia Feilden 92 102 113
27 2-1539 Flavia Tatiana29 4 8-11 A P O´Brien — 83 107
28 26845- Myplacelater183 5 8-11 Richard Fahey 102 94 119
29 170-30 Oceanway28 4 8-11 Mark Johnston 95 84 102
30 472-81 Sooraah37 5 8-11 William Haggas — 114 125
31 11-422 Tinshu28 6 8-11 Derek Haydn Jones 94 111 116
32 45726- Vivacious Vivienne237 6 8-11 Donal Kinsella — 71 121
Favourites: Beaten Up (2) , Premio Loco (9/2) , Fanunalter (8) , Junoob (8) , Circumvent (12) , Myplacelater (12) , Black Spirit (14) , Cai Shen (14) , Emerald Wilderness (14) , Loyalty (14) , Field Of Dream (16) , Our Joe Mac (16) , Sooraah (16) , Suits Me (18) , Flavia Tatiana (20) , Oceanway (20) , Riggins (20) , Vivacious Vivienne (20) , War Is War (20) , All The Winds (25) - Others 25 or more
2 111- Beaten Up154 4 9-3 William Haggas 119 121 134
3 54-080 Fanunalter23 6 9-3 Marco Botti — 87 109
4 1/81-6 All The Winds56J 7 9-0 Shaun Lycett 83 75 102
5 0841-1 Billyford78 7 9-0 Liam Roche — 84 101
6 83634- Black Spirit189 5 9-0 Clive Cox 104 106 118
7 23701- Cai Shen199 4 9-0 Richard Hannon 105 111 123
8 1/219- Charles Camoin282 4 9-0 Sylvester Kirk 90 108 109
9 64620- Circumvent98 5 9-0 Paul Cole 98 98 121
10 1-1100 Emerald Wilderness23 8 9-0 Robert Cowell — 109 114
11 7033-6 Field Of Dream64 5 9-0 Jamie Osborne — 90 116
12 02261- Glor Na Mara127 4 9-0 J S Bolger — 90 98
13 12-141 Junoob28 4 9-0 Tom Dascombe 95 102 116
14 121-73 Loyalty28 5 9-0 Derek Shaw 102 99 120
15 78-278 Lyssio44 5 9-0 Michael Attwater 98 102 114
16 63-900 Mantoba23 4 9-0 Brian Meehan — 99 116
17 005-3 Mataaleb23 5 9-0 Lydia Pearce 83 — —
18 03-503 Mister Green24 6 9-0 David Flood 62 76 89
19 2318-7 Our Joe Mac28 5 9-0 Richard Fahey 101 50 103
20 199-31 Reachforthebucks40 4 9-0 Jane Chapple-Hyam 82 84 101
21 60815- Riggins122 8 9-0 Ed Walker 98 99 119
22 0235-4 Suits Me64 9 9-0 David Barron — 106 120
23 224-16 Tappanappa28 5 9-0 Andrew Balding 79 87 105
24 118-15 True To Form28 5 9-0 Ronald Harris 92 95 111
25 5361-4 War Is War41 4 9-0 E J O´Neill — — 114
26 2-U119 Emma´s Gift28 4 8-11 Julia Feilden 92 102 113
27 2-1539 Flavia Tatiana29 4 8-11 A P O´Brien — 83 107
28 26845- Myplacelater183 5 8-11 Richard Fahey 102 94 119
29 170-30 Oceanway28 4 8-11 Mark Johnston 95 84 102
30 472-81 Sooraah37 5 8-11 William Haggas — 114 125
31 11-422 Tinshu28 6 8-11 Derek Haydn Jones 94 111 116
32 45726- Vivacious Vivienne237 6 8-11 Donal Kinsella — 71 121
Favourites: Beaten Up (2) , Premio Loco (9/2) , Fanunalter (8) , Junoob (8) , Circumvent (12) , Myplacelater (12) , Black Spirit (14) , Cai Shen (14) , Emerald Wilderness (14) , Loyalty (14) , Field Of Dream (16) , Our Joe Mac (16) , Sooraah (16) , Suits Me (18) , Flavia Tatiana (20) , Oceanway (20) , Riggins (20) , Vivacious Vivienne (20) , War Is War (20) , All The Winds (25) - Others 25 or more
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Replies: 36
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Beaten up obviously didn't head to dubai ???
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Nt sure - looks a weak renewal with 3/4 standouts, nothin else can win
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I wont say weak renewal actually - it lacks depth is a better way to put it
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Safe to say fanunalter and most of luca's string have lost it, might be tempted with premio loco when more firms price it up.
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Junoob also seriously on the improve but probably not up to this class.
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Beaten Up - Premio Loco - Junoob and Fanunalter if he finds some form
Between the 4 of them - id be interested in Junoob ew, wait for a few more firms to price up tho - will get bigger i reckon |
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Agreed.
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At The Races @AtTheRaces Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
News: Fanunalter takes a break: Fanunalter is to miss the Blue Square Winter Derby at Lingfield later this month |
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If Beaten Up shows up its game over. This thing is Group One and will be better again over a longer trip.
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Got winner i think will tell after Cheltenham, when i have taken price if any money left after Festival lol!
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Looks like 2 have gone already?
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What do you fancy Stevo1? I think it's a good betting heat at the moment, Premio Loco looks like the class horse if he turns up (I'm ignoring Beaten Up who won't run)but doesn't really stay 1m2f and had his chance a couple of years ago. Does he carry a penalty as a group 2 winner last year?
Junoob shouldn't be good enough, the Trial for this was a woeful race with Tinshu the yardstick there showing the form was nothing great. I fancy two at slightly bigger prices who should be good enough (horses rated in double figures need not apply really). How many bookies do we think will price this up? I don't want to get too involved until the draw as a double figure draw will be a massive disadvantage. |
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Billies and Badblokes priced up now amongst others, will wait tbc, jockey booked.
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Premio Loco (USA) 8 9 5
All The Winds (GER) 7 9 0 Black Spirit (USA) 5 9 0 Cai Shen (IRE) 4 9 0 Charles Camoin (IRE) 4 9 0 Circumvent (GB) 5 9 0 Emerald Wilderness (IRE) 8 9 0 Junoob (GB) 4 9 0 Loyalty (GB) 5 9 0 Lyssio (GER) 5 9 0 Mister Green (FR) 6 9 0 Our Joe Mac (IRE) 5 9 0 Riggins (IRE) 8 9 0 Suits Me (GB) 9 9 0 War Is War (IRE) 4 9 0 Emma's Gift (IRE) 4 8 11 Myplacelater (GB) 5 8 11 Sooraah (GB) 5 8 11 Tinshu (IRE) 6 8 11 Vivacious Vivienne (IRE) 6 8 11 |
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Cai Shen bein absolutely smashed up
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Looks like Cai Shen will be running then, very happy about that as I've backed Cai Shen and Circumvent. They look two of the more likely sorts to give their running but their chances can still be massively compromised by the draw so 1 and 2 would be nice!
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As long as not double figure draw,dependant on how many show.
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Who rides Cai Shen?
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Pretty sure Richard Hughes said on Twitter that he takes the ride. None of Hannon's are jocked up yet on Saturday so assume he'll be on all of them.
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Jamie Spencer is down to ride Cai Shen.
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Where did you find that out twm? Think that's a good booking as long as he rides him prominently.
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On the BHA racing admin site.
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Cal Shen (13) & Premio Loco (11) done no favours by the draw.
Junoob for me (2) even though he is held up more often than not. 1(11) 765127- Full form PREMIO LOCO (USA) 168 CATR Tracker ch g Prized - Crazee Mental 8 9 - 5 G Baker C F Wall 113 2(6) 283634- Full form BLACK SPIRIT (USA) 189 ATR Tracker b g Black Minnaloushe - L'extra Honor 5 9 - 0t A Kirby C G Cox 104 3(13) 323701- Full form CAI SHEN (IRE) 199 DATR Tracker ch c Iffraaj - Collada 4 9 - 0 J P Spencer R Hannon 105 4(12) 164620- Full form CIRCUMVENT 98 DATR Tracker ch g Tobougg - Seren Devious 5 9 - 0 J Fortune P F I Cole 98 5(5) 21-1100 Full form EMERALD WILDERNESS (IRE) 23 CDATR Tracker b g Green Desert - Simla Bibi 8 9 - 0p Jim Crowley R M H Cowell 95 6(2) 112-141 Full form JUNOOB 28 CDATR Tracker ch g Haafhd - Faydah 4 9 - 0b R Kingscote Tom Dascombe 99 7(1) 121-738 Full form LOYALTY 14 CATR Tracker b g Medicean - Ecoutila 5 9 - 0v J Fanning D Shaw 97 8(7) 378-278 Full form LYSSIO (GER) 44 DATR Tracker b g Motivator - Lysuna 5 9 - 0h1 T P Queally M J Attwater 98 9(8) 32318-7 Full form OUR JOE MAC (IRE) 28 DATR Tracker b g Celtic Swing - Vade Retro 5 9 - 0v1 T Hamilton R A Fahey 100 10(9) 060815- Full form RIGGINS (IRE) 122 CATR Tracker b g Cape Cross - Rentless 8 9 - 0 J-P Guillambert Ed Walker 98 11(14) 0235-48 Full form SUITS ME 21 CDBFATR Tracker ch g Bertolini - Fancier Bit 9 9 - 0 T E Durcan T D Barron 96 12(3) 826845- Full form MYPLACELATER 183 DBFATR Tracker ch m Where Or When - Star Welcome 5 8 - 11 P Hanagan R A Fahey 102 13(4) 472-819 Full form SOORAAH 14 ATR Tracker b m Dubawi - Al Persian 5 8 - 11 R L Moore W J Haggas 108 14(10) 45726-3 Full form VIVACIOUS VIVIENNE (IRE) 22 DATR Tracker b m Dubai Destination - Epistoliere 6 8 - 11 L Morris D Kinsella 101 |
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Though she had a realtively poor season last year, on the pick of her form at this distance, Myplacelater has as good a chance as anything.
Decent draw, new stable may freshen her up and 14s is worth a small interest e/w |
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Bad draws doc.
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Yeah I hoped at least one would get a good draw! My third choice was Vivacious Vivienne and she's in 10 so my tricast doesn't look too hot. Having said that you can do alright from out there, just need to break fast and get a good position. Most of the pace seems high this year so might not be a disaster if the low drawn horses take a pull and the high drawn horses shuffle across.
I think it's impossible to find a perfect horse for the race this year, the better horses are coming into it without a run, the draw has hit some strong fancies, quite a few are better over shorter, a couple are better over further. Even Junoob, who looks pretty solid, doesn't exactly look the winner if you look at his formlines with Tinshu who was 25/1 for this race before being withdrawn. Probably means a length will separate about six horses. |
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Tom Dascombe has improved Junoob from a class 6 gelding to a Listed winner in only four races.
Also similarly improved the filly Libys Dream from class 5 to Listed winner in five races. I'm not sure what has changed at Manor House Stables (the swimming pool?) but he has certainly made his mark this year with those two. Amy Weaver and Mike Mullineax are probably wondering what they missed in those two. I'm taking the improvement to continue on Saturday. Check out the similarities with previous winner Adiemus in 2002. |
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Trends for the past 10 runnings (http://tinyurl.com/6q35egc):
Age (Win-Place-Runners) 3yo: 0-1-1 4yo: 5-5-48 5yo: 0-8-35 6yo: 4-1-25 7yo+: 1-5-25 Since the inauguration of this race in 1998, 13 of 14 winners were aged 4 to 6. The only winner aged 7+ was a multiple listed winner that was trained in Italy, having his first run in GB. Official Rating Horses rated 100 or higher: 8-14-69 Horses rated 99 or lower: 1-5-44 Horses with no rating: 1-1-20 9 of last 10 winners were officially rated 100 or higher and the exception did not have an official rating as it was his first start in Britain but did win a listed race by 2 lengths on previous start. Recent/Past Form 7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 others finished 2nd & 4th in listed, other was 10th in group 1) 10 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 all-weather starts 7 of 10 winners had already run that year (3 of last 4 were having first run that year) 9 of 10 winners won over 1M 2F or further 8 of 10 winners had previously run 1 to 5 times on the all-weather 10 of 10 winners had previously won on the all-weather 6 of 10 winners had won at Lingfield (2 of 4 exceptions were having first course start) 10 of 10 winners had won at class 2 level or above Since the race became a group 3, 5 of 6 winners had won a listed or group race 10 of 10 winners had won a race worth 14K+ Other Races Lingfield Winter Derby Trial winner (Junoob): 1191296 (3-1-7) lingfieldpark.co.uk Handicap winner (Emerald Wilderness): 161620 (2-1-6) 4 of 10 winners had run in the Lingfield Winter Derby Trial, finishing 1113 3 of 10 winners had won Lingfield handicap over 1M 2F to 1M 4F in Jan/Feb 2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in the Quebec Stakes, finishing 51 2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in the Churchill Stakes, finishing 11 2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in the Wildflower Stakes, finishing 92 2 of 10 winners ran in the James Seymour Stakes, finishing 23 Trainers Richard Hannon (1-1-6) is the only trainer with a runner this year to have trained the winner in the past 10 years. Clive Cox (0-1-1) saddled the runner-up last year. David Barron hasn’t saddled a runner in this in past 10 years, his last runner in the race was Sergeant York in 2001, who won at 25/1. Draw Horses drawn 1 to 7: 7-8-70 Horses drawn 8 to 14: 3-12-64 There is slight preference for horses drawn 7 or lower. Price 8 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below. No very strong trend on the prices with 8 of the 10 winners coming from the first 5 in the betting but there have been a few surprises at 25/1 and 14/1 in last 10 years. Favourites (5-1-12) have won of 5 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 4.25. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: • Aged 4 to 6 • Officially rated 100+ • Won last time out (or ran well in a class 1 race) • Won over 1M 2F+ • Won 1 of last 2 all-weather starts • Previously run 1 to 5 times on the all-weather • Course winner (or having first start at Lingfield) • Won at listed or group race worth 14K+ • Drawn 1 to 7 • Priced 8/1 or below |
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Official Ratings should read:
Horses rated 100 or higher: 9-15-70 Horses rated 99 or lower: 0-4-43 Horses with no rating (in GB): 1-1-21 |
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Was on Circumvent e/w ran a cracker despite drifting for last 2 days in market,little saver on Loco as was too big a price.
So much for draw, as higher nos got in position due to lack of pace. |
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Stevo 1, Congratulations on backing the winner and the big odds third each way. Shame you didn't see fit to name either of them on this thread until two hours after they crossed the line.
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Li was on hols mate at Festival sure you were? Sorry bout that,if you read thread correctly think you may have been able to work out horse i backed.
So not on here as regular as usual,fwiw only had little saver on Loco just about made profit as main bet on Circumvent to win! |
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Stevo1, I was still smarting from having backed Cai Shen (before the draw came out) when posting the above. Thanks for a more gracious reply than it merited. Got one for the Lincoln yet?
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Fine Li he was bit unlucky tbh,waiting for draw re Lincoln not my fav race, at moment Smarty Socks fwiw big improver last season, maybe too high in handicap now?
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Smarty Socks drawn 22 of 22, have also backed Cocozza @ 10s. Good luck with any selections, cant wait for Aintree tbh.
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Have backed Light From Mars ew. Agree Cocozza an intriguing runner.
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