Newbury Denman Chase

Lets hope this meet goes ahead. Cracking card!

Paul Nicholls rates What A Friend a good bet at Newbury on Saturday

• Trainer has high hopes of Sir Alex Ferguson-owned runner
• Empire Levant is a lively Betfair Hurdle outsider


Greg Wood at Ditcheat

guardian.co.uk, Monday 6 February 2012


Paul Nicholls talked extensively on Monday about the horses he plans to run this weekend at Betfair's Super Saturday meeting and is expecting the Sir Alex Ferguson-owned What A Friend to run very well in the Denman Chase. Here are his thoughts on that runner and all his other hopes on the Newbury card.


What A Friend

He runs in the Denman Chase on Saturday. He was beaten a head in it last year with a 10lb penalty by Noland and then ran an absolutely corking race in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, only just failing to beat Kauto Star on the run-in, finishing fourth. The idea this year was to train him for two races, one being the Cheltenham Gold and the other is the Guinness Gold Cup at Punchestown in April.

The idea is to go for the Denman Chase, which he doesn't have a penalty for this year, and then go on to Cheltenham. We couldn't run him after [the John Smith's Hurdle at] Wetherby in October, which has probably worked in his favour as he goes well fresh. He's way more forward in his coat than he was this time last year, so I can see him running really well on Saturday.

He's 40-1 for the Gold Cup and, when you look at some of the horses in behind Long Run and Kauto Star, I think he's a massive each-way bet. If the ground's quick and dry like last year, he's a lively outsider.


Tidal Bay


He ran a really good race in the Argento [Chase at Cheltenham] the other day and stayed on really strongly. If I could get him jumping a bit better he'd be finishing a lot closer in his races.

I was going to go straight to the Gold Cup with him, and then go on to something like the Totesport Bowl at Aintree, but he came out of last week very fresh and well and worked nicely on Saturday, so we've stuck him in the Denman Chase on Saturday to see what's in it. We're not saving him now for anything, so he might well run this weekend. He gets no penalty and the race should suit him.


Zarkandar

He is favourite for the Betfair Hurdle on Saturday, unbeaten last year winning the Adonis, the Triumph and then at Aintree, and he's on a mark from the end of last season based on what he did last season. Whether he's well in or not, we'll know this weekend.

He did have a breathing operation in the summer, because he was always making a noise last year and I did say to the owners before the Adonis that, if he didn't win that day, we'd put him away and do the breathing operation then, so he'd be a novice this season. Of course, he won, so we carried on.

He had a bit of a setback earlier in the season. He was cast in his box which meant that I missed two or three weeks' work. I said to his owners that he wasn't going to be ready for Christmas, so we should give him one run and go for the Champion Hurdle, which has always been our target. So that's why he hasn't run; it was nothing major. He's done lots of work and had a racecourse gallop but first and foremost I haven't trained him just for Saturday. That is his prep race for the Champion Hurdle and that is when I want him at his very best for obvious reasons.

He could have a nice handicap mark on Saturday. It doesn't necessarily mean he's going to win, he could win a blinder and improve. Look at Long Run last year, he was beaten in the Paddy Power off 158 and then won the King George on his next start. Because they're well in, it doesn't always mean that they're certainties.

A race like this is going to be competitive and it's obviously a bit of a disadvantage that he's not had a run since April, so whatever he does on Saturday, he will improve. I pray to God it's on, as it would give us a headache as to what to do with him [if Newbury is called off], as I do need to give him a run before Cheltenham.


Brampour

He runs on Saturday in the Betfair Hurdle, he'll have top weight so it will be quite handy to have Harry [Derham] taking 7lb off him. He stops the weights going up a bit, so people seem to think I'm keeping him in to keep the weights right for [my] others but it probably suits everybody else really.

I need to give him a run before the Champion Hurdle and it's perfect to run him in this with 7lb off him. He was beaten only four lengths by Grandouet in the International Hurdle and he could run a really nice race on Saturday and pick up some crumbs in fourth or fifth.

He's done nothing but improve this year, he's had a break since Christmas and after Saturday and he'll go to the Champion Hurdle with Harry keeping the ride. Later on I'd look at something like the Scottish Champion and he'll hopefully improve again over the summer and contest all the good hurdle races next year.


Empire Levant


He's a big, scopey, rangey horse and I'm looking forward to him jumping fences next year. I still think he needs another summer but he's done nothing wrong this year. He won first time up at Newbury when he had a really nice handicap mark. He absolutely hosed in, then we ran him again two days later and he was second to Rock On Ruby with Rayo Star in third. Rayo Star then won the Ladbroke Hurdle [at Ascot] so that's good form.

He had a few little problems over Christmas but the intention is to run on Saturday and he'll have 10st 4lb, which is a great weight for a handicap like that. Then he'll probably run in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham.

He loves Newbury, as he's shown in his two runs there. With soft ground and a good gallop he's definitely not without a chance on Saturday. He's a really good outsider, a great each-way bet. He'll be a good chaser next year but there's another good hurdle in him before that.


Dodging Bullets


He's got an entry on Saturday in the novice hurdle at Newbury and he's also in at Taunton on Thursday and will run in one of those two races. He came from Ireland, did well on the Flat last summer and won his last two, and was quite impressive.

He's taken a little while to come to himself but he goes nicely enough at home and we're very much looking forward to running him. I need to get a run into him and then decide what we're going to do with him later in the season.


Silviniaco Conti

He's entered in the three-mile chase at Newbury but that doesn't mean he's going to run as he's got other options. He could go for the Reynoldstown Chase [at Ascot] or the Pendil or a race at Fontwell. We haven't decided for definite if he's going to run at Cheltenham, he's in the 2½-mile [novice chase] and also the three-mile [novice chase]. He ran an absolute blinder in the Feltham [Novice Chase] at Christmas, where he beat Bobs Worth. I still don't know why Bobs Worth is a shorter price than he is [for the RSA Chase at Cheltenham next month], because he beat him fair and square.

He jumps really well and he's improving, he's strengthening up all the time but I still see him as next year's horse, hence I don't really want to do the wrong thing. I want to mind him a little bit and, if we don't go to Cheltenham, we'll go to Aintree and then we'll be looking after him because next year I can see him contesting all the top three-mile races.

If Grands Crus runs on Saturday, I don't see any reason to take him on at this stage, so we might go elsewhere, but I'm sure he's going to do really well as a chaser.


Join Together


He's done really well this year and won at Cheltenham both times he's been there. He's in the RSA Chase [next month] and he's entered on Saturday at Newbury as well, again with an alternative in the Reynoldstown at Ascot the following week.

There is also a nice race at Fontwell in a few weeks' time that I won with Star De Mohaison en route to [winning] the RSA. Again all options are open with him and I don't want to give him that hard a race before Cheltenham. He goes well fresh and it wouldn't be the end of the world if he went straight there. A big galloping track like Newbury would suit him really well, and Denman won the same race en route to the RSA, but we'll just see what the opposition is and weigh it all up and see what we're going to do.

He was particularly impressive last time and I'm hoping he will progress to run in the Hennessy and the top chases next year. He's a typical [son of] Old Vic, who will just get stronger as he gets older.


Hold Fast

He's got an entry for the Champion Chase and also the Grand Annual Chase at Cheltenham. He's in the Betfair Super Saturday Chase [formerly the Game Spirit], which looks like being a hot race, but he won very nicely at Sandown last time.

We thought we'd run him at Newbury which will tell us whether he's good enough for the Champion Chase in which he might hopefully get a place. Master Minded took that same route, from Sandown to the Game Spirit and then the Champion Chase. I'm not saying he's Master Minded or anything like that but Saturday will tell us where we go at Cheltenham, if it's the Grand Annual or to be a lively outsider for the Champion Chase.

Ruby [Walsh] keeps telling me that he needs to go right-handed but then he used to keep saying that about Master Minded as well. I suspect he'll end up in a handicap at Cheltenham but, bar the top two or three in the Champion Chase, it's looking fairly open

AD: Many thanks.

This bulletin from Paul Nicholls is typical of those received from my wine merchant.
Bin Ends & En Primeur come to mind.

Thanks AD interesting read. The Denman looks like Long Run's for the taking.Hope What a Friend and Carruthers can make him work
for it,having backed them both at big prices for the Gold Cup

I take it Long Run will have a Grade 1 penalty and What a Friend et al won't?

Medermit might like this race - not certain he will run but I am hoping he will

anyways will see the weights and the final decs soon enough

Any chance of Burton Port running?

Think he's a high class animal

They say Burton Port is not certain to run as there is a race at Ascot the following week which they are also interested in

Are there any NRNB markets available for this race?

It seems slightly unlikley Burton Port will take on Long Run. IIRC he's also entered in a hurdle on the same card. As noted above there's the 2 m 5f Grade 1 at Ascot next week that Hendo likes (though he might want to get a run in to him at any meeting that survives the weather).

yes that's why I want to get on nrnb before he is withdrawn and the other prices drop

Oscar Whisky is among the names entered for the provisional all-weather National Hunt Flat meeting at Kempton on Friday.

The so-called bumpers-for-jumpers fixture has been pencilled in should the turf card at the Sunbury venue fall to the weather.

Trained by Nicky Henderson, Oscar Whisky was due to run in last weekend's abandoned Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las, and is second-favourite for the Ladbrokes World Hurdle behind Big Buck's.

The seven-year-old is among 42 entries for the two-mile Better Prices On Betfair Mobile 'Jumpers Bumper' National Hunt Flat Race. Olofi and Marodima feature in the same race.

How many do you think will actually line up for this?

Long Run
What a Friend
The Giant Bolster
Little Josh
Mr Moonshine

Probables imo, any more?

Carruthers maybe?

I doubt very much they will get 8 runners anyway.

just bet medermit at 14's too many with questions to answer i think he is a definite runner in a race which may only have 5 or 6 runners

Medermit at 14/1 e/w 1, 2, 3 is absolutely massive imo.  I'd almost have him in 2nd fav.

lads,hes never been 3m.Thats a question to answer,and a fair reason hes the price he is.

And hes up against the Gold Cup 1st and 4th.

he wasnt stopping at cheltenham last time i bet quantitiveasing that day and it was only his acceleration that won the day i thought it was a very good run under a big weight and this may be just what he needs i hope the giant bolster doesnt run as he could improve again had large bet last time but that was a steering job different test this time

The man who once said 'never back a horse to do something he hasn't done before' either had no idea of value or was a complete mug. Or both. Fact.

lol spot on sir

Couldn't agree more, 'boy wonder'.  I'm more than happy to have taken 14/1 about a horse that some people think might not stay.  I actually think it'll bring him on. If there's a handicap that's working out better than the spoilsports I haven't found it yet.  Also agree The GB is the fly in the ointment.  Barring the fav, who would not be suited to a small field 3 mile race unless the tempo's brisk, the rest have major holes in them imo.

It was a good run,but it dont mean he will stay 3m.
I suspect had he already proved he stays then he would not be 14.

I suspect had he already proved he stays then he would not be 14.

I think we're getting there.

Slowly

Point i am making is that he has to prove he stays,and thats built in his price i would think.
Whether he does stay or not,i aint sure,but until he does it remains a doubt.
If one thinks 14 is worth a go to find out then thats fine.

And its a question to answer!!

According to yesterdays post 1833 is a definite runner as Paul Barber wanted a runner at the meeting.Fan of Medermit myself but I have serious doubts about him staying,the same applies to Little Josh. Cant see any reason why Carruthers dosen't take his chance as he acts on the course,ground etc. I think this horse has improved since 2010. Trainer states that he was never right all last season and I still thing his Hennessey win is the best form on offer apart from
Long Run's.
He beat the Giant Bolster 15 lenghts in the Hennessey off of levels.They meet on the same terms on Saturday and unbelievebly Carruthers is the bigger price
He was beaten twice by What a Friend a few seasons ago,once by just over a lenght and on the other occasion by 3.5 lenghts
He does have it all to do against the top two but I think his the best of the rest and 20/1 is huge IMO

14 cannot be massive for a doubtful stayer up against stayers of Gold Cup standard imo.
And that mug would not have backed Captain Chris at Kempton Boxing Day i reckon.

See i can take the p!ss too Headmaster,but unlike you i dont think its that funny,or clever.

I've taken the 14/1 and I fully believe he will stay (Medermit) or at least well enough to reach the frame

Your Captain Chris reference is pointless...the mug wouldn't have backed Desert Orchid in his first King George either but neither has anything to do with Medermit....and I already know you can take the p!ss otherwise you wouldn't have told us that Medermit hadn't run over 3 miles before.  Good job you pointed that out, I hadn't checked myself

I think this race is pretty simple to evaluate anyway.

What A Friend is a complete twicer who I'm more than happy to let win at 4/1 if he wants to.  He threw away a Hennessy, threw away an Aon, tried to throw away a Bowl and has a career highlight of scrambling home from Money Trix.  Yes he's got a high rating because he's more than happy to be dragged along by class horses and not get involved imo. To actually win a race he needs a stone in hand.  No thanks.

Burton Port has options at Ascot next weekend and as he's got a serious National entry do any of us think the plan is to go out and win an Aon on the last weekend the handicapper can use racecourse evidence to compile the weights?  I certainly don't.

Tidal Bay is Tidal Bay and rather unlikely to suddenly find the toe to win this.

Little Josh has given connections plenty of evidence that he doesn't stay this trip.

Carruthers has to come back from a nasty injury in the Welsh National.

1833 has lost it.  Young enough to bounce back and would be worth a sheckle at 50s on the day, I suppose.  Hardly inspiring though.

It's not working out for Halley and Mr Moonshine isn't good enough.

That leaves Long Run, Medermit and The Giant Bolster.  Although by far the most likely winner I do have serious doubts that this race will play to Long Run's strengths and, if an element of tactics comes into this, I'd panic with SWC on my side, who appears to be going backwards as a jockey.

Of the other two, I have healthy respect for The Bolster but he hasn't been confirmed for this yet, unlike Medermit, who the trainer has nominated for this race from some way out, looks as though he'll improve again for 3 miles, has age on his side, is from a yard in form, is coming out of the hottest handicap of the season to date and is wildly overpriced (imo). You can wait till decs and get a quarter 1, 2 or wait till next year and potentially be backing him at 11/4 after he's won over 3 miles.  Personally I'm more than happy to take the plunge now 14/1 e/w 1, 2, 3.  Win, lose or draw on Saturday these are the types of bets that offer value long term.

The fact of the matter is, Medermitt has around a stone to find with the front two in the betting.

Gl to all you backers, but I can't see it myself.

excellent post by the Headmaster! Sums up how I feel precisely

"Of the other two, I have healthy respect for The Bolster but he hasn't been confirmed for this yet, unlike Medermit, who the trainer has nominated for this race from some way out, looks as though he'll improve again for 3 miles, has age on his side, is from a yard in form, is coming out of the hottest handicap of the season to date and is wildly overpriced (imo). You can wait till decs and get a quarter 1, 2 or wait till next year and potentially be backing him at 11/4 after he's won over 3 miles.  Personally I'm more than happy to take the plunge now 14/1 e/w 1, 2, 3.  Win, lose or draw on Saturday these are the types of bets that offer value long term."

This paragraph in particular is superb!

I have also backed the horse for the Gold Cup and the w/o LR & KS markets at massive prices

I agree its an excellent post,i like that Spinal race too,and he may well stay,but....

Anyway,i wish you good luck Headmaster and i do hope he stays for you,and anyone else who backs him.

And i do mean that,no p!ss taking this time.
Even if i have backed him in the Ryannair.

I have backed him the Ryan Air too Budd at 16s

listen this is a very similar type of bet to Arctic Cosmos in the Leger and Poet's Voice in the QEII Stakes which I put up very early on olbg for very similar reasons to why I am following Medermit (improving, underestimated form, opposition dodgy)- I dunno if those two threads are still on olbg but they are worth a read

there were lots of people on those threads saying "have lots to find" and "won't stay" and such like but like the Headmaster says this is how you find massive value bets. I'm not saying Medermit is any certainty by any means - just that at the prices he is massive value especially if he improves for the longer distance (he may well do) and if the Spinal race turns out to have been under rated (and it may well have as Calgary Bay has improved 16lbs since according to RPR)

and I will be trading out anyway as long as he shortens up enough

Well we've always seen eye-to-eye so same to you, budd.  Must admit I didn't wake up this morning expecting to have a love-in with judorick, though! Good man, judo - I do like a chap who doesn't hold grudges.  Life's too short and all that, old boy, eh?

no grudges at all, what's the point?

I just had a quick look at Medermit's sire Medaaly on the RP website. From what I can gather on there the best horse he sired apart from Medermit is The Sky's the limit who never won over further than 2.6m under rules but is now winning over 3m in Hunter Chases.
It would appear that this horse has never sired a 3m winner at all under NH rules.
Thats not to say that Medermit wont buck that trend as he is by far and away his best offspring,but not for me at any price

HM Do you know anymore about Carruthers injury? I had know idea he had sustained an injury and was gutted that he never took his chance in the Argento.Obviously his injury was the problem.If
you can enlighten me further it would be appreciated. Thank You!

Judo - on the National Hunt Chase thread you called me a **** and I retorted by calling you a pea-brained fakhwit.  Rather sorry I mentioned it now

Giddy - from "Grantham Today"
(No, I'm not a subscriber )

Carruthers could be back in action at Newbury on Saturday week after escaping serious injury in the Coral Welsh National.

The Hennessy hero needed several stitches after being badly struck into in the Chepstow marathon.

Mark Bradstock's popular nine-year-old, owned and bred by Lord Oaksey, claimed a famous success when making most of the running at Newbury in November and may be fit enough to return there for the Betfair Denman Chase.

"He's OK now, but we were extremely lucky in that melee at the first bend at Chepstow because a centimetre either way could have been structural damage and fatal, but it was nasty and through to the bone," said trainer Mark Bradstock's wife and assistant Sara.

"That would have gone a long way to explaining the run. He hated been stuck in the middle of the bunch anyway, but he would have been lacking power off one back leg.

"Probably the fact he went a circuit doing that has been a bit of an overstrain on a hamstring. It's not bad, but he's not lame, it's just a tweak.

"He gives his all, so he has to be perfect.

"He's back in training and the plan is to go to Newbury. Whether he will make that or not we don't know at this stage. We'll see how he is at the end of the week."

Thanks very much HM. I would imagine that they wont rush him and get him to HQ fit and well
Good luck

I wouldn't run Carruthers in here if he were mine. He really is over matched. He has had his big win this season and now an injury to overcome - surely some of those marathon handicaps would be better options? Races like the Midlands National, Eider etc where he is going to get soft ground and can at least race off his mark

Judo - except he's very much a family horse (owned, trained, bred, ridden, iirc), and Newbury is very much the family's local track with which they have a strong affinity. You see Lady Oaksey on the IJF stall at most Newbury meetings.

yes but he has no chance mate

just coz they are local doesn't make it the right race for him and that's what should count first

I agree he seems unlikely to beat Long Run but there are doubts about almost all the other runners so he could place. He's also 2 from 3 at the track. He's unlikley to be done any harm by the race assuming he's recovered from Chepstow. "the right race" is an incredibly subjective consideration. As an owner/trainer seeing your horse run at your favourite track might make it "the right race". Why should such people view racing through the prism of punters?

no, no don't get me wrong I wasn't thinking about punters at all.

I just think he is so badly in facing Long Run, What a Friend, Medermit, TB and the Bolster that the risks are not worth it - coming off injury in this race he would be lucky to be 4th

I've owned horses for 20 years and yes sometimes we run them at local tracks for convenience but this is a different kettle of fish

That's one way of looking at it, but another is that in his last Newbury race he won one of the premier handicaps of the season.

I accept he won't beat Long Run if LR stands up, but let's look at the others. Note that I'm not saying what I think of these horses, just putting one interpretation on their records.

WAF - bottler (see your discussion above)
Tidal Bay - crazy, inconsistent
Medermit - doubtful stayer
Giant Bolster - Dodgy jumper (though in fairness may have sorted that out)
1833 - Lost it
Mr Moonshine - Not good enough
Halley - no good/hates England
Little Josh - non stayer
Burton Port - probable NR, wouldn't want to ruin a workable mark for the National

If your perspective is like that, there'd be no reason not to run Carruthers in this prestigious race on ground he'll like - he could place. I would add, if he is not 100% recovered from his injury he should not run. I also agree with you that other races (staying, soft ground) give him a much better chance of winning.

(That said, I don't think I'd ever run a horse of mine in the Eider - it's a horrific race, painful to watch last season).

What to do with a problem like Carruthers....???

Saturday week's 3m Ltd H'cap Chase at Ascot wouldn't be a bad starting point.

...and I'd have definitely put him in the old Greenhalls GC at Haydock.

Trainer hasn't though.

yes there have to better options than running against the Gold Cup winner and giving weight to higher rated horses on going that is quicker than he likes

don't forget he won the Hennessey off 146

all the 14 gone now, jumped on the last remaining with Victors this morning and they now go 11... must be a certain runner

I'm slightly concerned that there are a few certain runners, judo - guess you can be too cute in this game.  Looks like Nicholls runs three and Hendo two - maybe we will get 1, 2, 3, on the day?  At least the 14s has gone anyway.

Alan King - Medermit has been crying out for a step up in trip and I think he could be quite interesting over Saturday's 3m.

I wouldn't care if all the current entries turn up - if he produces the level of performance he needs it won't matter. He needs to continue that progression he has had in 3 runs this season 158, 162 and 164 RPR and hopefully will improve and run nearer 170

would be nice to see Burton Port drop out because he is an unknown due to the lay off

Lads,
Re my Ryannair bet,
whats your thoughts on Medermit running in the Gold Cup should he stay 3m on Sat?
Extra 2f on a track like Cheltenham??

If he does Long Run over 3m he must run in the Gold Cup, I'd have thought budd.

I think if he stays on well enough and the jock gets off and says he needs further then there is a good chance he will go for Gold. I have had to bet him in all markets to cover the eventualities

I really think he only produces his best on good ground so they might take that into account too - it's tricky to cover now because all the really big prices have gone for the Gold Cup

You definitely want to see him emptying out sharply from two out!

yes if he wins the Aon he will surely go for the GC

why wouldn't you?

Geraghty jocked up on BP now - Rodney Masters saying he's geared up for a big run on Saturday.  If they're at all serious about the Nash they must be mad imo.....???

i dont think it matters about whether burton port wins or not on saturday he is already 160 ie gauranteed top weight in national lets hope he's a little rusty on saturday

Well if he wins fair enough Judo,but he can stay and not win.
What im saying is even if he stays 3m,they may not want to go extra 2f when they have a race that could suit him better,maybe.

that's why i am on both races budd

Albertas is my main Ryannair bet,i only backed Medermit after he won at Exeter cos his price was too big and he looked an improver,but i would be happy with that back up for sure.

Personally think he would struggle a tad behind the likes of Kauto Star,especially if KS is in the form of his last 2 runs.
Still,this is the Gold Cup we are talking about,and the owners may well give it a go if he stays ok on Saturday,and i guess you could'nt blame them,as long as they think the horse will be ok.

Personally think he would struggle a tad behind the likes of Kauto Star,especially if KS is in the form of his last 2 runs.
Still,this is the Gold Cup we are talking about,and the owners may well give it a go if he stays ok on Saturday,and i guess you could'nt blame them,as long as they think the horse will be ok.

yes he has got to improve a good 10lbs or more and show he stays - but that is why he has been huge prices

It will be good to see Burton Port back - its always nice to see good horses fit, well and running. Presumably Geraghty will ride him in the Gold Cup as well.

of course judo.
ive a few at big prices,but must admit hes one i never thought of as a GC contender this season,so he slipped the net.
Quel Esprit is the one of mine im most hopeful of,and ive got him for the Ryannair as well,so im in a similar position as you with Medermit.

ORs
Synchro (National top-weight) - 167
Burton - 160

Long Run is on 182.  I would advise extreme caution if I was on the Burton Port team.  In fact, I would be telling them not to run unless we knew he wasn't going to trouble the judge.

That is all based on him being the big National hope, of course.  If it's Gold Cup all the way none of the above is relevant.

Love the Medermit logic and am on for both the Ryanair 20+ and the GC 250s in rubbish , but what decided me was his jumping last time where buried amongst horses he was good , plus he accelerated away from his fences , both he hadnt really shown previously .
Re his sire Medaaly , Skys the Limit put up one of the best ever Coral Cup performances winning as easily as you like under 11-12 as a five year old and burying the trenders . OK disappointing since but only ran over fences once at 3m (25f actually ) , pre his recent PTP successes .
The only caveat in my book is that it looked too obvious he needs a trip ...........why did it take so long ? not another Somersby .

Meeting lost to the weather. Gutted

Really don't like what I'm seeing here.  King has jocked up Thornton on the horse at Ascot.  There is no jockey currently engaged at Newbury.  You can read too much into these things but at the moment that's a pretty heavy hint.

With the race now due to take place after the National weights are set, I am of the opinion the 12/1 Burton Port e/w 1, 2, 3 is the way to jump.

HM - what's your opinion on whether Burton will run in the National with that lump of weight and Ballabriggs going for Hemmings? I must say I was a touch surprised by how much weight BP has been allocated.

Be careful HM as Burton Port is entered in 2.25 Ascot Saturday.  Am not Sure Henderson would want BP and LR battling out a finish.

Very good point, shockster.  Hendo doesn't appear to have done his Saturday bookings yet (barring putting David Bass on Grandouet) so he could go to Ascot .  Small field at Newbs might be more the ticket though?

As long as there's a leg in each corner he defo runs at Aintree, I'd have thought, stront, no?  Only injury, total loss of form or, conversely, winning the Gold Cup might prompt a rethink?

King has stated he wants to try Medermit at 3 miles so  I expect him to run at Newbury

Ascot Chase looks very winnable though, wouldn't you say?

well it is a grade 1 so it is tough and it doesn't answer the question of whether he stays or not

newbury for me, they have been talking about it over the weekend, be surprised if they change the plan

I would say Ascot Chase is very winnable if he is anywhere near his peak.  Trouble is, we don't know.  Re national weight, I think it's very fair.  Will back once it is confirmed, depending on price, will be favourite if he goes close in Gold Cup.

shock

I was talking about Medermit, you are talking about Burton Port I guess

Yes Judo

choc thornton said medermit is going to ascot and then the ryanair

makes sense imo,he been running at that sort of distance and runnning well.
Plus ive backed him in the Ryanair

I think they should stick to the original plan.

I've backed him for the Gold Cup

Henderson:  Burton Port will probably run at Newbury on Friday against Long Run, otherwise he'll go to Ascot at the weekend.

NRNB HM??

On 'ere budd.

I am now hoping he gets thoroughly done for toe by Kauto Stone and they chuck him in the big one anyway......

Tbh, the ante-post Cheltenham portfolio is shaping up to be a right old horlicks.  2011 was a stellar year across the board, flat and jumps, but we now seem to be encountering the dreaded 'correction'.  What goes up...etc.etc.

Yeh,mines taken a knock or 2 last couple of weeks,fingers crossed for not too many more!!
Its always gonna happen mate,still bl00dy annoying when it does though.

gah trainers!

grow a pair King you mug! We know he can run well at 2 miles 5 what are you gonna learn by running at Ascot? What a ****

I have a big bet on for the Ryan Air at 16s but I have 180 for the Gold Cup which I was looking forward to trading lol. Ah well....

ooh maybe they will go the for the 3 miler at Aintree/Punchestown and then build him up to the Gold Cup next year

hmm... that sounds like a plan

that ***** was  p u s s y

Guess hes decided to go Ryanair,so it all makes sense.
Win some you lose some,anyway you still have a bet going.

yes I got stuck into the Rtan Air as soon as the spinal research race started throwing up winners, long before it entered my head that he would go for the gold cup

and if you look on the multiple bets thread you will see if have done two trixies with GE and Med in the Ryan Air

i think WHAT A FRIEND is the one to be on here, with a saver on burton port. he was a "sick horse" after his last run while he was clearly a non stayer in the grand national. his attitude is questionable at times and i think more is often made of this than is deserved. if official figures are to be believed he has just 3 lbs to find on long run and lr is hardly ultra consistent. hes 11/2 and while i think hes an e/w steal, im more of a win only punter so im hoping he puts his best foot forward. Burton port has the form to compete but its a huge ask after his problems and time off the track. tidal bay needless to say will run on all to late. medermit doesnt go and while the giant bolster ran a screamer lto, i think he may well have been flattered. gl all

Have to agree reve. Have taken the 11/2 ew 1/5 1,2,3 and can't see him out of the frame

PS- Am absolutely gutted at your namesake's injury. Had already taken the 25/1 ew for the Festival Chase and am convinced he would have ran a massive race. Next year hopefully

didnt hear about that, im no longer as fond of him now as i was when he was a hurdler. where did u hear that?

Story from Sporting Life bro:

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/12/02/12/RACING_Sivola.html&BID=465

Still think he has a big one in him. Not the tidiest of jumpers but masssssseeve engine

thanks!