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06 Feb 12
12:11
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05 Jan 10
What A Friend - a massive ew bet for Gold Cup says Paul Nicholls - to take on Long Run in Denman Chase at Newbury
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Lets hope this meet goes ahead. Cracking card!
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Paul Nicholls rates What A Friend a good bet at Newbury on Saturday
• Trainer has high hopes of Sir Alex Ferguson-owned runner • Empire Levant is a lively Betfair Hurdle outsider Greg Wood at Ditcheat guardian.co.uk, Monday 6 February 2012 Paul Nicholls talked extensively on Monday about the horses he plans to run this weekend at Betfair's Super Saturday meeting and is expecting the Sir Alex Ferguson-owned What A Friend to run very well in the Denman Chase. Here are his thoughts on that runner and all his other hopes on the Newbury card. What A Friend He runs in the Denman Chase on Saturday. He was beaten a head in it last year with a 10lb penalty by Noland and then ran an absolutely corking race in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, only just failing to beat Kauto Star on the run-in, finishing fourth. The idea this year was to train him for two races, one being the Cheltenham Gold and the other is the Guinness Gold Cup at Punchestown in April. The idea is to go for the Denman Chase, which he doesn't have a penalty for this year, and then go on to Cheltenham. We couldn't run him after [the John Smith's Hurdle at] Wetherby in October, which has probably worked in his favour as he goes well fresh. He's way more forward in his coat than he was this time last year, so I can see him running really well on Saturday. He's 40-1 for the Gold Cup and, when you look at some of the horses in behind Long Run and Kauto Star, I think he's a massive each-way bet. If the ground's quick and dry like last year, he's a lively outsider. Tidal Bay He ran a really good race in the Argento [Chase at Cheltenham] the other day and stayed on really strongly. If I could get him jumping a bit better he'd be finishing a lot closer in his races. I was going to go straight to the Gold Cup with him, and then go on to something like the Totesport Bowl at Aintree, but he came out of last week very fresh and well and worked nicely on Saturday, so we've stuck him in the Denman Chase on Saturday to see what's in it. We're not saving him now for anything, so he might well run this weekend. He gets no penalty and the race should suit him. Zarkandar He is favourite for the Betfair Hurdle on Saturday, unbeaten last year winning the Adonis, the Triumph and then at Aintree, and he's on a mark from the end of last season based on what he did last season. Whether he's well in or not, we'll know this weekend. He did have a breathing operation in the summer, because he was always making a noise last year and I did say to the owners before the Adonis that, if he didn't win that day, we'd put him away and do the breathing operation then, so he'd be a novice this season. Of course, he won, so we carried on. He had a bit of a setback earlier in the season. He was cast in his box which meant that I missed two or three weeks' work. I said to his owners that he wasn't going to be ready for Christmas, so we should give him one run and go for the Champion Hurdle, which has always been our target. So that's why he hasn't run; it was nothing major. He's done lots of work and had a racecourse gallop but first and foremost I haven't trained him just for Saturday. That is his prep race for the Champion Hurdle and that is when I want him at his very best for obvious reasons. He could have a nice handicap mark on Saturday. It doesn't necessarily mean he's going to win, he could win a blinder and improve. Look at Long Run last year, he was beaten in the Paddy Power off 158 and then won the King George on his next start. Because they're well in, it doesn't always mean that they're certainties. A race like this is going to be competitive and it's obviously a bit of a disadvantage that he's not had a run since April, so whatever he does on Saturday, he will improve. I pray to God it's on, as it would give us a headache as to what to do with him [if Newbury is called off], as I do need to give him a run before Cheltenham. Brampour He runs on Saturday in the Betfair Hurdle, he'll have top weight so it will be quite handy to have Harry [Derham] taking 7lb off him. He stops the weights going up a bit, so people seem to think I'm keeping him in to keep the weights right for [my] others but it probably suits everybody else really. I need to give him a run before the Champion Hurdle and it's perfect to run him in this with 7lb off him. He was beaten only four lengths by Grandouet in the International Hurdle and he could run a really nice race on Saturday and pick up some crumbs in fourth or fifth. He's done nothing but improve this year, he's had a break since Christmas and after Saturday and he'll go to the Champion Hurdle with Harry keeping the ride. Later on I'd look at something like the Scottish Champion and he'll hopefully improve again over the summer and contest all the good hurdle races next year. Empire Levant He's a big, scopey, rangey horse and I'm looking forward to him jumping fences next year. I still think he needs another summer but he's done nothing wrong this year. He won first time up at Newbury when he had a really nice handicap mark. He absolutely hosed in, then we ran him again two days later and he was second to Rock On Ruby with Rayo Star in third. Rayo Star then won the Ladbroke Hurdle [at Ascot] so that's good form. He had a few little problems over Christmas but the intention is to run on Saturday and he'll have 10st 4lb, which is a great weight for a handicap like that. Then he'll probably run in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham. He loves Newbury, as he's shown in his two runs there. With soft ground and a good gallop he's definitely not without a chance on Saturday. He's a really good outsider, a great each-way bet. He'll be a good chaser next year but there's another good hurdle in him before that. Dodging Bullets He's got an entry on Saturday in the novice hurdle at Newbury and he's also in at Taunton on Thursday and will run in one of those two races. He came from Ireland, did well on the Flat last summer and won his last two, and was quite impressive. He's taken a little while to come to himself but he goes nicely enough at home and we're very much looking forward to running him. I need to get a run into him and then decide what we're going to do with him later in the season. Silviniaco Conti He's entered in the three-mile chase at Newbury but that doesn't mean he's going to run as he's got other options. He could go for the Reynoldstown Chase [at Ascot] or the Pendil or a race at Fontwell. We haven't decided for definite if he's going to run at Cheltenham, he's in the 2½-mile [novice chase] and also the three-mile [novice chase]. He ran an absolute blinder in the Feltham [Novice Chase] at Christmas, where he beat Bobs Worth. I still don't know why Bobs Worth is a shorter price than he is [for the RSA Chase at Cheltenham next month], because he beat him fair and square. He jumps really well and he's improving, he's strengthening up all the time but I still see him as next year's horse, hence I don't really want to do the wrong thing. I want to mind him a little bit and, if we don't go to Cheltenham, we'll go to Aintree and then we'll be looking after him because next year I can see him contesting all the top three-mile races. If Grands Crus runs on Saturday, I don't see any reason to take him on at this stage, so we might go elsewhere, but I'm sure he's going to do really well as a chaser. Join Together He's done really well this year and won at Cheltenham both times he's been there. He's in the RSA Chase [next month] and he's entered on Saturday at Newbury as well, again with an alternative in the Reynoldstown at Ascot the following week. There is also a nice race at Fontwell in a few weeks' time that I won with Star De Mohaison en route to [winning] the RSA. Again all options are open with him and I don't want to give him that hard a race before Cheltenham. He goes well fresh and it wouldn't be the end of the world if he went straight there. A big galloping track like Newbury would suit him really well, and Denman won the same race en route to the RSA, but we'll just see what the opposition is and weigh it all up and see what we're going to do. He was particularly impressive last time and I'm hoping he will progress to run in the Hennessy and the top chases next year. He's a typical [son of] Old Vic, who will just get stronger as he gets older. Hold Fast He's got an entry for the Champion Chase and also the Grand Annual Chase at Cheltenham. He's in the Betfair Super Saturday Chase [formerly the Game Spirit], which looks like being a hot race, but he won very nicely at Sandown last time. We thought we'd run him at Newbury which will tell us whether he's good enough for the Champion Chase in which he might hopefully get a place. Master Minded took that same route, from Sandown to the Game Spirit and then the Champion Chase. I'm not saying he's Master Minded or anything like that but Saturday will tell us where we go at Cheltenham, if it's the Grand Annual or to be a lively outsider for the Champion Chase. Ruby [Walsh] keeps telling me that he needs to go right-handed but then he used to keep saying that about Master Minded as well. I suspect he'll end up in a handicap at Cheltenham but, bar the top two or three in the Champion Chase, it's looking fairly open |
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AD: Many thanks.
This bulletin from Paul Nicholls is typical of those received from my wine merchant. Bin Ends & En Primeur come to mind. |
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Thanks AD interesting read. The Denman looks like Long Run's for the taking.Hope What a Friend and Carruthers can make him work
for it,having backed them both at big prices for the Gold Cup |
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I take it Long Run will have a Grade 1 penalty and What a Friend et al won't?
Medermit might like this race - not certain he will run but I am hoping he will anyways will see the weights and the final decs soon enough |
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Any chance of Burton Port running?
Think he's a high class animal |
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They say Burton Port is not certain to run as there is a race at Ascot the following week which they are also interested in
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Are there any NRNB markets available for this race?
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It seems slightly unlikley Burton Port will take on Long Run. IIRC he's also entered in a hurdle on the same card. As noted above there's the 2 m 5f Grade 1 at Ascot next week that Hendo likes (though he might want to get a run in to him at any meeting that survives the weather).
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yes that's why I want to get on nrnb before he is withdrawn and the other prices drop
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Oscar Whisky is among the names entered for the provisional all-weather National Hunt Flat meeting at Kempton on Friday.
The so-called bumpers-for-jumpers fixture has been pencilled in should the turf card at the Sunbury venue fall to the weather. Trained by Nicky Henderson, Oscar Whisky was due to run in last weekend's abandoned Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las, and is second-favourite for the Ladbrokes World Hurdle behind Big Buck's. The seven-year-old is among 42 entries for the two-mile Better Prices On Betfair Mobile 'Jumpers Bumper' National Hunt Flat Race. Olofi and Marodima feature in the same race. |
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How many do you think will actually line up for this?
Long Run What a Friend The Giant Bolster Little Josh Mr Moonshine Probables imo, any more? |
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Carruthers maybe?
I doubt very much they will get 8 runners anyway. |
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just bet medermit at 14's too many with questions to answer i think he is a definite runner in a race which may only have 5 or 6 runners
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Medermit at 14/1 e/w 1, 2, 3 is absolutely massive imo. I'd almost have him in 2nd fav.
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lads,hes never been 3m.Thats a question to answer,and a fair reason hes the price he is.
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And hes up against the Gold Cup 1st and 4th.
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he wasnt stopping at cheltenham last time i bet quantitiveasing that day and it was only his acceleration that won the day i thought it was a very good run under a big weight and this may be just what he needs i hope the giant bolster doesnt run as he could improve again had large bet last time but that was a steering job different test this time
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The man who once said 'never back a horse to do something he hasn't done before' either had no idea of value or was a complete mug. Or both. Fact.
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lol spot on sir
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Couldn't agree more, 'boy wonder'. I'm more than happy to have taken 14/1 about a horse that some people think might not stay. I actually think it'll bring him on. If there's a handicap that's working out better than the spoilsports I haven't found it yet. Also agree The GB is the fly in the ointment. Barring the fav, who would not be suited to a small field 3 mile race unless the tempo's brisk, the rest have major holes in them imo.
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It was a good run,but it dont mean he will stay 3m.
I suspect had he already proved he stays then he would not be 14. |
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I suspect had he already proved he stays then he would not be 14.
I think we're getting there. Slowly  |
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Point i am making is that he has to prove he stays,and thats built in his price i would think.
Whether he does stay or not,i aint sure,but until he does it remains a doubt. If one thinks 14 is worth a go to find out then thats fine. |
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And its a question to answer!!
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According to yesterdays post 1833 is a definite runner as Paul Barber wanted a runner at the meeting.Fan of Medermit myself but I have serious doubts about him staying,the same applies to Little Josh. Cant see any reason why Carruthers dosen't take his chance as he acts on the course,ground etc. I think this horse has improved since 2010. Trainer states that he was never right all last season and I still thing his Hennessey win is the best form on offer apart from
Long Run's. He beat the Giant Bolster 15 lenghts in the Hennessey off of levels.They meet on the same terms on Saturday and unbelievebly Carruthers is the bigger price He was beaten twice by What a Friend a few seasons ago,once by just over a lenght and on the other occasion by 3.5 lenghts He does have it all to do against the top two but I think his the best of the rest and 20/1 is huge IMO |
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14 cannot be massive for a doubtful stayer up against stayers of Gold Cup standard imo.
And that mug would not have backed Captain Chris at Kempton Boxing Day i reckon. See i can take the p!ss too Headmaster,but unlike you i dont think its that funny,or clever. |
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I've taken the 14/1 and I fully believe he will stay (Medermit) or at least well enough to reach the frame
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Your Captain Chris reference is pointless...the mug wouldn't have backed Desert Orchid in his first King George either but neither has anything to do with Medermit....and I already know you can take the p!ss otherwise you wouldn't have told us that Medermit hadn't run over 3 miles before. Good job you pointed that out, I hadn't checked myself
 I think this race is pretty simple to evaluate anyway. What A Friend is a complete twicer who I'm more than happy to let win at 4/1 if he wants to. He threw away a Hennessy, threw away an Aon, tried to throw away a Bowl and has a career highlight of scrambling home from Money Trix. Yes he's got a high rating because he's more than happy to be dragged along by class horses and not get involved imo. To actually win a race he needs a stone in hand. No thanks. Burton Port has options at Ascot next weekend and as he's got a serious National entry do any of us think the plan is to go out and win an Aon on the last weekend the handicapper can use racecourse evidence to compile the weights? I certainly don't. Tidal Bay is Tidal Bay and rather unlikely to suddenly find the toe to win this. Little Josh has given connections plenty of evidence that he doesn't stay this trip. Carruthers has to come back from a nasty injury in the Welsh National. 1833 has lost it. Young enough to bounce back and would be worth a sheckle at 50s on the day, I suppose. Hardly inspiring though. It's not working out for Halley and Mr Moonshine isn't good enough. That leaves Long Run, Medermit and The Giant Bolster. Although by far the most likely winner I do have serious doubts that this race will play to Long Run's strengths and, if an element of tactics comes into this, I'd panic with SWC on my side, who appears to be going backwards as a jockey. Of the other two, I have healthy respect for The Bolster but he hasn't been confirmed for this yet, unlike Medermit, who the trainer has nominated for this race from some way out, looks as though he'll improve again for 3 miles, has age on his side, is from a yard in form, is coming out of the hottest handicap of the season to date and is wildly overpriced (imo). You can wait till decs and get a quarter 1, 2 or wait till next year and potentially be backing him at 11/4 after he's won over 3 miles. Personally I'm more than happy to take the plunge now 14/1 e/w 1, 2, 3. Win, lose or draw on Saturday these are the types of bets that offer value long term. |
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The fact of the matter is, Medermitt has around a stone to find with the front two in the betting.
Gl to all you backers, but I can't see it myself. |
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excellent post by the Headmaster! Sums up how I feel precisely
"Of the other two, I have healthy respect for The Bolster but he hasn't been confirmed for this yet, unlike Medermit, who the trainer has nominated for this race from some way out, looks as though he'll improve again for 3 miles, has age on his side, is from a yard in form, is coming out of the hottest handicap of the season to date and is wildly overpriced (imo). You can wait till decs and get a quarter 1, 2 or wait till next year and potentially be backing him at 11/4 after he's won over 3 miles. Personally I'm more than happy to take the plunge now 14/1 e/w 1, 2, 3. Win, lose or draw on Saturday these are the types of bets that offer value long term." This paragraph in particular is superb! I have also backed the horse for the Gold Cup and the w/o LR & KS markets at massive prices |
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I agree its an excellent post,i like that Spinal race too,and he may well stay,but....
Anyway,i wish you good luck Headmaster and i do hope he stays for you,and anyone else who backs him. And i do mean that,no p!ss taking this time. Even if i have backed him in the Ryannair. |
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I have backed him the Ryan Air too Budd at 16s
listen this is a very similar type of bet to Arctic Cosmos in the Leger and Poet's Voice in the QEII Stakes which I put up very early on olbg for very similar reasons to why I am following Medermit (improving, underestimated form, opposition dodgy)- I dunno if those two threads are still on olbg but they are worth a read there were lots of people on those threads saying "have lots to find" and "won't stay" and such like but like the Headmaster says this is how you find massive value bets. I'm not saying Medermit is any certainty by any means - just that at the prices he is massive value especially if he improves for the longer distance (he may well do) and if the Spinal race turns out to have been under rated (and it may well have as Calgary Bay has improved 16lbs since according to RPR) and I will be trading out anyway as long as he shortens up enough |
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Well we've always seen eye-to-eye so same to you, budd. Must admit I didn't wake up this morning expecting to have a love-in with judorick, though! Good man, judo - I do like a chap who doesn't hold grudges. Life's too short and all that, old boy, eh?
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no grudges at all, what's the point?
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I just had a quick look at Medermit's sire Medaaly on the RP website. From what I can gather on there the best horse he sired apart from Medermit is The Sky's the limit who never won over further than 2.6m under rules but is now winning over 3m in Hunter Chases.
It would appear that this horse has never sired a 3m winner at all under NH rules. Thats not to say that Medermit wont buck that trend as he is by far and away his best offspring,but not for me at any price HM Do you know anymore about Carruthers injury? I had know idea he had sustained an injury and was gutted that he never took his chance in the Argento.Obviously his injury was the problem.If you can enlighten me further it would be appreciated. Thank You! |
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Judo - on the National Hunt Chase thread you called me a **** and I retorted by calling you a pea-brained fakhwit. Rather sorry I mentioned it now
  Giddy - from "Grantham Today" (No, I'm not a subscriber  )Carruthers could be back in action at Newbury on Saturday week after escaping serious injury in the Coral Welsh National. The Hennessy hero needed several stitches after being badly struck into in the Chepstow marathon. Mark Bradstock's popular nine-year-old, owned and bred by Lord Oaksey, claimed a famous success when making most of the running at Newbury in November and may be fit enough to return there for the Betfair Denman Chase. "He's OK now, but we were extremely lucky in that melee at the first bend at Chepstow because a centimetre either way could have been structural damage and fatal, but it was nasty and through to the bone," said trainer Mark Bradstock's wife and assistant Sara. "That would have gone a long way to explaining the run. He hated been stuck in the middle of the bunch anyway, but he would have been lacking power off one back leg. "Probably the fact he went a circuit doing that has been a bit of an overstrain on a hamstring. It's not bad, but he's not lame, it's just a tweak. "He gives his all, so he has to be perfect. "He's back in training and the plan is to go to Newbury. Whether he will make that or not we don't know at this stage. We'll see how he is at the end of the week." |
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Thanks very much HM. I would imagine that they wont rush him and get him to HQ fit and well
Good luck |
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I wouldn't run Carruthers in here if he were mine. He really is over matched. He has had his big win this season and now an injury to overcome - surely some of those marathon handicaps would be better options? Races like the Midlands National, Eider etc where he is going to get soft ground and can at least race off his mark
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