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shockster
23 Jan 12 16:44
Joined:
Date Joined: 26 Oct 05
| Topic/replies: 2,625 | Blogger: shockster's blog
NO.    FORM    HORSE    AGE    WGT    TRAINER RTF%    JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR
1     32-3P4        Any Currency 21    9        Martin Keighley    A P Cawley     131     101     139
2     11-1U3        Captain Chris 33      8        Philip Hobbs         164     158     168
3     49-31P        Carruthers 32    9        Mark Bradstock         152     149     157
4     1P/1-4        Diamond Harry 70      9        Nick Williams         166     143     167
5     2-6111        Grands Crus 33      7        David Pipe         159     159     168
6     45-026        Knockara Beau 33      9        George Charlton         140     116     153
7     1155-        Little Josh 364      10        Nigel Twiston-Davies         154     95     135
8     16F-1R        Master Of The Hall 21      8        Nicky Henderson         148     109     158
9     115-F3        Midnight Chase 33      10        Neil Mulholland         158     144     167
10     13P-11        The Minack 42      8        Paul Nicholls         159     127     161
11     45534        The Sawyer 7      12        Bob Buckler         131     111     137
12     226U-3        Tidal Bay 27      11        Paul Nicholls         —     141     166
13     15-251        Time For Rupert 45      8        Paul Webber         156     138     163


Looks like it could be a cracker.
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Report Desmond Orchard • January 23, 2012 5:09 PM GMT
Yup, it's the CGC without Long Run or Kauto. If you think that neither of them will win, then it should be hugely informative.
Report sintonian • January 23, 2012 6:34 PM GMT
A couple in here to test Grand Crus. 9/4 currently for him.

TFR probably the eachway shout given his course form figures. The 4th home in his last race has come out and Won.

How did Tidal Bay run lto ? PFN a good record in this race, won it last two years with Neptune and Taranis.
Report FOYLESWAR • January 23, 2012 6:38 PM GMT
cracking looking race should be informative !
Report heezagoodoperator • January 24, 2012 1:09 AM GMT
GC seems like a poor price compared to CC and DH, can't have the fav at 9/4, 2/1.
Report unclepuncle • January 24, 2012 9:10 AM GMT
Time For Rupert, at just over 6/1 on here, is the bet for me.
Report sintonian • January 24, 2012 9:13 AM GMT
yeah was thinking the same, jumps great loves Cheltenham. EW.
Report sintonian • January 24, 2012 11:46 AM GMT
Have backed TFR eachway at 11/2. He jumps great, a confidence booster last time out, 4th home has won, love Cheltenham and was 9/4 fav for this race last year. He'll love this trip aswell.

Captain Chris is is obviously top class, but needs to prove he gets 3m1f, which he might, but i'd rather watch.

Grand Crus is top class aswell obviously and gave Big Bucks a harder race than TFR did, but for me he shows a lot pace and not convinced he wants an extended 3 miles tbh. He's obviously a noivce aswell.

PFN's runners have to be respected. Tidal Bay could win this, IF he wants to. The Minack is a progressive handicapper whos best form is on different tracks going right-handed.

Diamond Harry something to prove and probably best on flatter tracks.
Report hhfggf • January 24, 2012 2:30 PM GMT
Going with the unpredictable old rogue and arkle winner tidal bay EW at 11/1 for a bit of fun.

Won the cleeve in 2010 at this meeting (beating time for rupert 5l) and finished 2nd in this last year after running on too late again. Had a breathing operation in the summer and is getting 5 and 6 pounds from all the market leaders. First time out this season was a respectable 3rd place, in which he was running off a big hurdles mark of 160.

Big question is, can he actually be bothered?

Saying all that, i'd love to see the young Grands Crus win by a distance and very exciting gold cup with Long Run.
Report VikingRidge • January 24, 2012 11:03 PM GMT
Potentially a bigger field than last season, so the old Rogue Tidal Bay may get a stronger pace which will help his cause.

Dont think I would back Captain Chris at 100's, Time for Ruppert has been exposed imo. I reckon (as much as I hate to say it) Midnight Chase will win the race if Grand Crus doesn't live up to the reputation.

For me Grand Crus, Midnight Chase and Tidal Bay in that order.
Report Rod Tidwell • January 24, 2012 11:52 PM GMT
I think Brian Hughes did a wonderful job cajoling Tidal Bay into races last year - puts me off backing him for anything now if anyone else is on board
Report Giddy • January 25, 2012 12:35 AM GMT
Am i missing something with Carruthers?? Always thought him to be very useful but a tad short of top class.Most horses in this event are exposed and are also short of top class with the possible exception of Capt Chris and Grand Crus. Grand Crus could prove himself to be the real deal but still a novice and slight doubts about the trip.Capt Chris serious doubts about the trip,jumping and going lefthanded.

Bradstock stated that Carruthers was wrong all last season and has proved his wellbeing this season by winning the Hennessey,which is the best piece of form on offer imo. He beat the Giant Bolster by 15 lenghts off of levels and subsequantly The Giant Bolster was beaten 1.5 lenghts by Time for Rupert off of levels

I cant believe that Carruthers is 4 times the price of TFR and for me is overpriced and has sound claims in this race
Report racingguru • January 25, 2012 9:24 AM GMT
Giddy - tend to agree with you that he's overpriced relative to TFR but is he overpriced relative to MC? Both lead and whilst I don't give give much credence to OR's at this level MC chase seems to be sort of competitive of 161 whereas Carruthers never been n that league.

MC for me is the one thats overpriced but obvious vunerable if theres a GC contender in the race. I don't see one but could be wrong about GC and CC.
Report sintonian • January 25, 2012 9:32 AM GMT
The Giant Bolster runs in the race prior to the Argention at 2.00pm, so hopefully he will put up a good show for TFR fans.

He did get closer to TFR than Carruthers but the races were chalk & cheese in reality and TFR was eased at the finish.

Carruthers is an admirable horse and his 5th place finish in the GC from 2 years ago is a decent piece of form. But he had 3 tough races in quick succession, Cheltenham,Newbury,Chepstow, where none of them were easy imo.
Report sintonian • January 25, 2012 9:33 AM GMT
Agree re Midnight Chase, ran a cracker lto giving weight.
Report sintonian • January 25, 2012 9:36 AM GMT
Should say Carruthers beat TGB further than TFR did, agree, but the races were totally different .. i.e a 4 runner graduation chase where everything was in single file, and then a 20 runners handicap when TGB was out the back all the while with Carruthers up front blazing a trail.
Report bazzar • January 25, 2012 10:05 AM GMT
WHY ALL THESE INITIALS INSTEAD PART OR ALL OF THE NAME OF THE HORSE OR TRAINER, WE NEED AN INTERPRETER TO UNDERSTAND, MAYBE THE FORUM HAS BEEN TAKEN OVER BY THE C.I.A.
Report stevo1 • January 25, 2012 11:01 AM GMT
Lazy,if not getting soft Captain Chris was overpriced at 11/2 e/w, hopefully jumps bit better on goodish ground.
Report racingguru • January 25, 2012 11:43 AM GMT
CC is a bad jumper period and does he stay? Hard to call a grade 1 wina fluke but CC Arkle win was as close to fluke as you'll see. He's never jumped like that b4 or since.
Report stevo1 • January 25, 2012 11:59 AM GMT
Find out Saturday wont we,  you are the Guru after all.Not sure how you can call his Arkle win a fluke maybe you didnt watch the race? Agree jumping isnt the best since,slighty right-handed.
And all best form is shown after xmas imo,was Punchestown Grade 1 a fluke as well?
Report Giddy • January 25, 2012 12:16 PM GMT
I'm interested to see how Capt Chris goes as I have followed his career quite closely since I was told before he had seen a racecourse that he was very special.I have big reservations about him being happy going lefthanded and for me his just not a natural jumper of a fence.
I would not be in the least surprised to see this doing a Big Bucks and going back over hurdles at some point,unless of course he wins this
Midnights first run back at Down Royal was extremely lacklustre,and ran well round Wetherby under top weight. Does he prefer decent ground? If so, and he can reproduce his best form must have a decent claim.
Very tough race and wouldnt be surprised if anyone of half a dozen won it. But at the odds i'm
more tha happy to stay with Carruthers
Report racingguru • January 25, 2012 12:28 PM GMT
As I said I could be wrong about CC and GC but am happy to take them on. Tidal Bay worries me somewhat getting weight. Anyone know Nichols riding arrangements. I'm guessing Mahon who won't be able to claim.
Report judorick • January 25, 2012 1:22 PM GMT
Guru

the winner probably mentioned in your post - Grands Crus, Captain Chris and Tidal Bay
Report racingguru • January 25, 2012 3:24 PM GMT
Prolly be on Midnight Chase with a saver on Tidal. Respect TFR but he's plenty short enough given his form.
Report shockster • January 25, 2012 3:38 PM GMT
Guru - Midnight Chase and Tidal Bay for me also. Grands Crus could be anything though?
Report judorick • January 25, 2012 3:44 PM GMT
yes Midnight Chase would be my 4th choice

TFR is not on the radar for me
Report sageform • January 25, 2012 4:20 PM GMT
I would not be surprised to see Grand Cru win but he needs to beat this lot easily to threaten Kauto or Long Run. It will be a very poor Gold Cup if any of these apart from Grand Cru end up winning that.
Report apolo80 • January 25, 2012 7:02 PM GMT
grand crus has to win not another horse in the race can win a gold cup and thats the truth a hope grand crus wins and goes for the big one against kauto and long run.a would be surprised if grand grus is beaten.it can beat itself by not settling that would bemy only worry
Report VikingRidge • January 25, 2012 9:55 PM GMT
For me Captain Chris wont win if he jumps off tomorrow. Cannot have that horse for love nor money, dont jump well enough for me, wont stay either...

If Grand Crus is upto winning a Gold Cup this year, he HAS to win this by over 10 lengths imo. Would be quite interested if Nicholls put Timmy on board tidal bay tbh.
Report buddeliea • January 26, 2012 7:51 AM GMT
More i look at this race the more i can see only 2 winners,GC and TB.
With a doubt over GC running i think it makes sense to back TB now and if he runs i will back GC when declared.
Report stevo1 • January 26, 2012 9:04 AM GMT
Viking why would Crus have to win by over 10 lengths, last thing they want would be hard race before Sun Alliance/ Gold Cup.Imo he is a lay at the prices if all line up,and i backed him in Sun Alliance at 6s.
Maybe we find out how good he is on Saturday, at present not 100% he will show.
Report VikingRidge • January 26, 2012 9:16 AM GMT
Agreed they dont want to give him a hard race, but Kauto or Long Run would win this race carrying half the field. Nothing outside of Grand Crus has any hope of being near them in the final furlong come march.

I thinks its not a good race to run him in, as I dont think it will prove that much. If they were serious about the Gold Cup I think they should wait for the Aon Chase tbh. This that would teach them a lot more.
Report liam the lips • January 26, 2012 9:30 AM GMT
Timmy's on Wayward prince at Donny Viking.
Report shockster • January 26, 2012 9:40 AM GMT
I don't think this race will show if Grands Crus can win The Gold Cup or Captain Chris for that matter, but it will let them know if they have a sniff.  Midnight Chase was beaten 16L in the GC last season and aspirations of these and all the runners probably surround him given that he gives his running on his favourite track. Tidal Bay was a further 10L back in the GC and we will see if Nicholls has got any improvement out of him and he is 6LB better off.
Report sintonian • January 26, 2012 9:55 AM GMT
Grand Crus would face Long Run in the Aon Chase.

The best solution is to not run GC here at all imo. Just stick to the Noivce route.
Report shockster • January 26, 2012 10:24 AM GMT
Apols Midnight Chase beaten 19L and Tidal Bay 23L in last years Gold Cup. Will get my facts straight. But the same point applies.
Report shockster • January 26, 2012 10:32 AM GMT
Grands Crus does NOT run on Saturday.
Report sintonian • January 26, 2012 10:35 AM GMT
Yup. Wise move.
Report stevo1 • January 26, 2012 11:04 AM GMT
I did mention above not 100% going, on another forum yesterday someone stated Chester Barnes allegedly stated wont be running.
At least they have seen sense back down the novice route.
Report VikingRidge • January 26, 2012 11:57 AM GMT
Liam, yeah I just think it could be worth trying as Timmy is an exceptional horseman I just think he might be able to unlock the talent the horse clearly has. I know he's not everyones favourite Jock, but personally I am a big fan. Thought the ride he gave in the Vetrans Chase at haydock over Xmas (on the pipe horse, my minds gone blank) was exceptional.

I think its a wise move to stick to Novices, I hate novices running in championship races personally. Is interesting that there not running him Saturday because Cheltenham is so close, yet he may run at Newbury in 2-3 weeks time?!?!? That makes perfect sense.
Report Lance in France • January 26, 2012 12:58 PM GMT
Viking, I'd say its to do with how hard a race they think he will have rather than the actual timing involved. The other race option they are considering is a novice chase at Newbury, not the Aon, so I guess they are thinking the novice race won't be as taxing.
Report VikingRidge • January 26, 2012 1:10 PM GMT
True, tbh I kind of always thought the talk of the Gold Cup could of been to inflate the price for the RSA a shade? That could be me being slightly cycnical but would be a total shock?

Would imagine the race at Newbury will be a school round tbh... Im not so keen on this approach, sometimes I think english novices to often arrive at Cheltenham without actually being in a race? And it's a big disadvantage... Bostons Angels was very battle hardened last year and he seem to just out battle everyone.

Is a huge difference from winning a couple 7 or less runner novices, to go into a 14+ runner RSA. Not saying he wont win, because at present he is by far the form choice.
Report El Apache • January 26, 2012 8:02 PM GMT
Little Josh

Chucked a few quid e/w at 40/1 at Sid James.

This lad thrashed Long Run amongst others in last season`s Paddy Power. Twisty has confirmed it will run.
Report Meat Loaf • January 27, 2012 4:10 PM GMT
I think Little Josh could be the Grand National winner.
Report Giddy • January 28, 2012 2:45 PM GMT
excellant call Viking
Report judorick • January 28, 2012 3:29 PM GMT
how does the market keep making Time for Rupert so short? I know he had beaten the Giant Bolster last time but that didn't really mean he should be favourite for this. I know the market got it right with Captain Chris but honestly TFR just keeps getting over bet
Report sintonian • January 28, 2012 4:01 PM GMT
Wd Midnihgt Chase backers. A good performance from him. Travelled real nice.

Captain Chris ... I doubt if he'll even be back for the festival, jumpsing so bad today.
Report buddeliea • January 28, 2012 4:08 PM GMT
CC injured?
TFR not good enough at all
DH did not stay

MC and TB have place claims in the Gold Cup,personally i would forget the rest.
Report sintonian • January 28, 2012 4:32 PM GMT
He's is fine according to Hobbsy. Was pulled-up because of the way he jumped.
Report buddeliea • January 28, 2012 4:37 PM GMT
yeh,just seen that.
Thats good news,still dont see him running in the Gold Cup though,but yer never know.
Report strontium • January 28, 2012 6:39 PM GMT
Good news - but WHY did he jump like that? Some sort of injury? (Reminded me of Masterminded when he broke his rib). In any case, must be a huge negative for the Gold Cup.
Report buddeliea • January 28, 2012 6:59 PM GMT
That plus the big doubt about him staying anyway,thats 2 major negatives.
It looked to me that something was amiss,and they may find something in the next few days,but whatever, i think hes shown enough for me to count him out of the GC reckoning.
Report sintonian • January 28, 2012 7:17 PM GMT
He's jumped like that before.

He also won a noivce hurdle at Cheltenham when he hung badly around the bend.
Report stevo1 • January 28, 2012 10:49 PM GMT
Also drifted like a barge since friday night,someone knew as mentioned by another poster, re paddock and going to start very late,something wasnt right.
Report racingguru • January 29, 2012 7:13 AM GMT
As i've described him b4 CC is a fluke G1 winner. I feel gutted as I was 2nd to the fluke but at least gained recompense this season by continually opposing him. Just an inherently bad jumper. Sure if he happens to meet them right he can jump them but clueless when he has to adjust. If they were sure he stays they could go World Hurdle route but just thinks he's a lost horse at present. Maybe stick him the CH or save him for a flat campaign for the cup races or big staying handicaps.
Report racingguru • January 29, 2012 7:14 AM GMT
Shame cos he's got a great engine.
Report Giddy • January 29, 2012 11:58 AM GMT
Guru. Completly agree with your sentiments re CC  I dont think he will go lefthanded over fences again.Problem is there very limited decent righthanded races and his not a natural jumper so I can see him back over hurdles in the future.
BTW Great call on this race.Hope you had the forecast?
Report racingguru • January 29, 2012 2:53 PM GMT
No fc but got 9's MC.
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