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shockster
23 Jan 12 16:44
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Date Joined: 26 Oct 05
| Topic/replies: 2,625 | Blogger: shockster's blog
NO.    FORM    HORSE    AGE    WGT    TRAINER RTF%    JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR
1     32-3P4        Any Currency 21    9        Martin Keighley    A P Cawley     131     101     139
2     11-1U3        Captain Chris 33      8        Philip Hobbs         164     158     168
3     49-31P        Carruthers 32    9        Mark Bradstock         152     149     157
4     1P/1-4        Diamond Harry 70      9        Nick Williams         166     143     167
5     2-6111        Grands Crus 33      7        David Pipe         159     159     168
6     45-026        Knockara Beau 33      9        George Charlton         140     116     153
7     1155-        Little Josh 364      10        Nigel Twiston-Davies         154     95     135
8     16F-1R        Master Of The Hall 21      8        Nicky Henderson         148     109     158
9     115-F3        Midnight Chase 33      10        Neil Mulholland         158     144     167
10     13P-11        The Minack 42      8        Paul Nicholls         159     127     161
11     45534        The Sawyer 7      12        Bob Buckler         131     111     137
12     226U-3        Tidal Bay 27      11        Paul Nicholls         —     141     166
13     15-251        Time For Rupert 45      8        Paul Webber         156     138     163


Looks like it could be a cracker.

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Replies: 57
By:
Desmond Orchard
When: 23 Jan 12 17:09
Yup, it's the CGC without Long Run or Kauto. If you think that neither of them will win, then it should be hugely informative.
By:
sintonian
When: 23 Jan 12 18:34
A couple in here to test Grand Crus. 9/4 currently for him.

TFR probably the eachway shout given his course form figures. The 4th home in his last race has come out and Won.

How did Tidal Bay run lto ? PFN a good record in this race, won it last two years with Neptune and Taranis.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 23 Jan 12 18:38
cracking looking race should be informative !
By:
heezagoodoperator
When: 24 Jan 12 01:09
GC seems like a poor price compared to CC and DH, can't have the fav at 9/4, 2/1.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 24 Jan 12 09:10
Time For Rupert, at just over 6/1 on here, is the bet for me.
By:
sintonian
When: 24 Jan 12 09:13
yeah was thinking the same, jumps great loves Cheltenham. EW.
By:
sintonian
When: 24 Jan 12 11:46
Have backed TFR eachway at 11/2. He jumps great, a confidence booster last time out, 4th home has won, love Cheltenham and was 9/4 fav for this race last year. He'll love this trip aswell.

Captain Chris is is obviously top class, but needs to prove he gets 3m1f, which he might, but i'd rather watch.

Grand Crus is top class aswell obviously and gave Big Bucks a harder race than TFR did, but for me he shows a lot pace and not convinced he wants an extended 3 miles tbh. He's obviously a noivce aswell.

PFN's runners have to be respected. Tidal Bay could win this, IF he wants to. The Minack is a progressive handicapper whos best form is on different tracks going right-handed.

Diamond Harry something to prove and probably best on flatter tracks.
By:
hhfggf
When: 24 Jan 12 14:30
Going with the unpredictable old rogue and arkle winner tidal bay EW at 11/1 for a bit of fun.

Won the cleeve in 2010 at this meeting (beating time for rupert 5l) and finished 2nd in this last year after running on too late again. Had a breathing operation in the summer and is getting 5 and 6 pounds from all the market leaders. First time out this season was a respectable 3rd place, in which he was running off a big hurdles mark of 160.

Big question is, can he actually be bothered?

Saying all that, i'd love to see the young Grands Crus win by a distance and very exciting gold cup with Long Run.
By:
VikingRidge
When: 24 Jan 12 23:03
Potentially a bigger field than last season, so the old Rogue Tidal Bay may get a stronger pace which will help his cause.

Dont think I would back Captain Chris at 100's, Time for Ruppert has been exposed imo. I reckon (as much as I hate to say it) Midnight Chase will win the race if Grand Crus doesn't live up to the reputation.

For me Grand Crus, Midnight Chase and Tidal Bay in that order.
By:
Rod Tidwell
When: 24 Jan 12 23:52
I think Brian Hughes did a wonderful job cajoling Tidal Bay into races last year - puts me off backing him for anything now if anyone else is on board
By:
Giddy
When: 25 Jan 12 00:35
Am i missing something with Carruthers?? Always thought him to be very useful but a tad short of top class.Most horses in this event are exposed and are also short of top class with the possible exception of Capt Chris and Grand Crus. Grand Crus could prove himself to be the real deal but still a novice and slight doubts about the trip.Capt Chris serious doubts about the trip,jumping and going lefthanded.

Bradstock stated that Carruthers was wrong all last season and has proved his wellbeing this season by winning the Hennessey,which is the best piece of form on offer imo. He beat the Giant Bolster by 15 lenghts off of levels and subsequantly The Giant Bolster was beaten 1.5 lenghts by Time for Rupert off of levels

I cant believe that Carruthers is 4 times the price of TFR and for me is overpriced and has sound claims in this race
By:
racingguru
When: 25 Jan 12 09:24
Giddy - tend to agree with you that he's overpriced relative to TFR but is he overpriced relative to MC? Both lead and whilst I don't give give much credence to OR's at this level MC chase seems to be sort of competitive of 161 whereas Carruthers never been n that league.

MC for me is the one thats overpriced but obvious vunerable if theres a GC contender in the race. I don't see one but could be wrong about GC and CC.
By:
sintonian
When: 25 Jan 12 09:32
The Giant Bolster runs in the race prior to the Argention at 2.00pm, so hopefully he will put up a good show for TFR fans.

He did get closer to TFR than Carruthers but the races were chalk & cheese in reality and TFR was eased at the finish.

Carruthers is an admirable horse and his 5th place finish in the GC from 2 years ago is a decent piece of form. But he had 3 tough races in quick succession, Cheltenham,Newbury,Chepstow, where none of them were easy imo.
By:
sintonian
When: 25 Jan 12 09:33
Agree re Midnight Chase, ran a cracker lto giving weight.
By:
sintonian
When: 25 Jan 12 09:36
Should say Carruthers beat TGB further than TFR did, agree, but the races were totally different .. i.e a 4 runner graduation chase where everything was in single file, and then a 20 runners handicap when TGB was out the back all the while with Carruthers up front blazing a trail.
By:
bazzar
When: 25 Jan 12 10:05
WHY ALL THESE INITIALS INSTEAD PART OR ALL OF THE NAME OF THE HORSE OR TRAINER, WE NEED AN INTERPRETER TO UNDERSTAND, MAYBE THE FORUM HAS BEEN TAKEN OVER BY THE C.I.A.
By:
stevo1
When: 25 Jan 12 11:01
Lazy,if not getting soft Captain Chris was overpriced at 11/2 e/w, hopefully jumps bit better on goodish ground.
By:
racingguru
When: 25 Jan 12 11:43
CC is a bad jumper period and does he stay? Hard to call a grade 1 wina fluke but CC Arkle win was as close to fluke as you'll see. He's never jumped like that b4 or since.
By:
stevo1
When: 25 Jan 12 11:59
Find out Saturday wont we,  you are the Guru after all.Not sure how you can call his Arkle win a fluke maybe you didnt watch the race? Agree jumping isnt the best since,slighty right-handed.
And all best form is shown after xmas imo,was Punchestown Grade 1 a fluke as well?
By:
Giddy
When: 25 Jan 12 12:16
I'm interested to see how Capt Chris goes as I have followed his career quite closely since I was told before he had seen a racecourse that he was very special.I have big reservations about him being happy going lefthanded and for me his just not a natural jumper of a fence.
I would not be in the least surprised to see this doing a Big Bucks and going back over hurdles at some point,unless of course he wins this
Midnights first run back at Down Royal was extremely lacklustre,and ran well round Wetherby under top weight. Does he prefer decent ground? If so, and he can reproduce his best form must have a decent claim.
Very tough race and wouldnt be surprised if anyone of half a dozen won it. But at the odds i'm
more tha happy to stay with Carruthers
By:
racingguru
When: 25 Jan 12 12:28
As I said I could be wrong about CC and GC but am happy to take them on. Tidal Bay worries me somewhat getting weight. Anyone know Nichols riding arrangements. I'm guessing Mahon who won't be able to claim.
By:
judorick
When: 25 Jan 12 13:22
Guru

the winner probably mentioned in your post - Grands Crus, Captain Chris and Tidal Bay
By:
racingguru
When: 25 Jan 12 15:24
Prolly be on Midnight Chase with a saver on Tidal. Respect TFR but he's plenty short enough given his form.
By:
shockster
When: 25 Jan 12 15:38
Guru - Midnight Chase and Tidal Bay for me also. Grands Crus could be anything though?
By:
judorick
When: 25 Jan 12 15:44
yes Midnight Chase would be my 4th choice

TFR is not on the radar for me
By:
sageform
When: 25 Jan 12 16:20
I would not be surprised to see Grand Cru win but he needs to beat this lot easily to threaten Kauto or Long Run. It will be a very poor Gold Cup if any of these apart from Grand Cru end up winning that.
By:
apolo80
When: 25 Jan 12 19:02
grand crus has to win not another horse in the race can win a gold cup and thats the truth a hope grand crus wins and goes for the big one against kauto and long run.a would be surprised if grand grus is beaten.it can beat itself by not settling that would bemy only worry
By:
VikingRidge
When: 25 Jan 12 21:55
For me Captain Chris wont win if he jumps off tomorrow. Cannot have that horse for love nor money, dont jump well enough for me, wont stay either...

If Grand Crus is upto winning a Gold Cup this year, he HAS to win this by over 10 lengths imo. Would be quite interested if Nicholls put Timmy on board tidal bay tbh.
By:
buddeliea
When: 26 Jan 12 07:51
More i look at this race the more i can see only 2 winners,GC and TB.
With a doubt over GC running i think it makes sense to back TB now and if he runs i will back GC when declared.
By:
stevo1
When: 26 Jan 12 09:04
Viking why would Crus have to win by over 10 lengths, last thing they want would be hard race before Sun Alliance/ Gold Cup.Imo he is a lay at the prices if all line up,and i backed him in Sun Alliance at 6s.
Maybe we find out how good he is on Saturday, at present not 100% he will show.
By:
VikingRidge
When: 26 Jan 12 09:16
Agreed they dont want to give him a hard race, but Kauto or Long Run would win this race carrying half the field. Nothing outside of Grand Crus has any hope of being near them in the final furlong come march.

I thinks its not a good race to run him in, as I dont think it will prove that much. If they were serious about the Gold Cup I think they should wait for the Aon Chase tbh. This that would teach them a lot more.
By:
liam the lips
When: 26 Jan 12 09:30
Timmy's on Wayward prince at Donny Viking.
By:
shockster
When: 26 Jan 12 09:40
I don't think this race will show if Grands Crus can win The Gold Cup or Captain Chris for that matter, but it will let them know if they have a sniff.  Midnight Chase was beaten 16L in the GC last season and aspirations of these and all the runners probably surround him given that he gives his running on his favourite track. Tidal Bay was a further 10L back in the GC and we will see if Nicholls has got any improvement out of him and he is 6LB better off.
By:
sintonian
When: 26 Jan 12 09:55
Grand Crus would face Long Run in the Aon Chase.

The best solution is to not run GC here at all imo. Just stick to the Noivce route.
By:
shockster
When: 26 Jan 12 10:24
Apols Midnight Chase beaten 19L and Tidal Bay 23L in last years Gold Cup. Will get my facts straight. But the same point applies.
By:
shockster
When: 26 Jan 12 10:32
Grands Crus does NOT run on Saturday.
By:
sintonian
When: 26 Jan 12 10:35
Yup. Wise move.
By:
stevo1
When: 26 Jan 12 11:04
I did mention above not 100% going, on another forum yesterday someone stated Chester Barnes allegedly stated wont be running.
At least they have seen sense back down the novice route.
By:
VikingRidge
When: 26 Jan 12 11:57
Liam, yeah I just think it could be worth trying as Timmy is an exceptional horseman I just think he might be able to unlock the talent the horse clearly has. I know he's not everyones favourite Jock, but personally I am a big fan. Thought the ride he gave in the Vetrans Chase at haydock over Xmas (on the pipe horse, my minds gone blank) was exceptional.

I think its a wise move to stick to Novices, I hate novices running in championship races personally. Is interesting that there not running him Saturday because Cheltenham is so close, yet he may run at Newbury in 2-3 weeks time?!?!? That makes perfect sense.
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