I agree with Jonibake about ATD being under priced. With the fillies allowance I have him only a couple of pounds above Midday (about 1 length on my scale). He's run a couple of fast final times for the conditions already this year and his latest win was a bit of a slog, even though he's had a couple of months off there's no guarantee he will be at his peak again. Midday, on the other hand, looked on the way back to her best last time and had a very easy race. The prices should be closer, imo.

I think jamesp is quite correct concerncing Fort Bastion in the Acomb. He has arguably the single best piece of form in the race from the Chesham second to Maybe.

Ballydoyle/Coolmore will be trying hard with Battle of Saratoga and Furner’s Green to raise the Dylan Thomas profile.

Entifaadha deserves respect having beaten the impressive Washington Singer winner Fencing on debut. But the Fencing price of 14/1 on debut, then 5/4 fav. For the Washington tells its own story in my opinion , I wouldn’t take the form too literally.

Of the others, nothing has franked the Zumbi form. The same applies to Archbishop. Either might well win, but the prices are too short. The horse who was second to Al Khan has been beaten into second off a mark of 75 in a nursery.  Balty Boys is another who looks to short, probably the Hills factor.

That leaves me with my long shot fancy Moon Pearl. The second and third in his debut have both won since. The extra furlong looks to be in his favour and seems overpriced at mid 20s to me, worth a speculative each way bet.

sint

what do you mean by if Seville improves for the extra distance?

It's purely because of the price: anything shorter than 3/1 about this horse is a lay in my book.  That's not to say that he won't win, but it's a Class 2 handicap with 17 runners, several of them in good form.

Trev, I thought he ran a good race at Goodwood (I backed him), where he made the running and then tired out of it. He had not run for 70 odd days either so could have needed it. The form of the Greenham with Excellebration and co, and as you say his 4 length thumping of Lexis Hero, see Shropshire very well handicapped at the mo. It's hard to tell if he is in form though so undecided whether to back him yet.

SJ - got confused with the Leger trip itself so ignore that. AOB has won this race twice in the last decade.

Wed - Shropshire & Campanology
Fri - Bapak chinta (warming to Wizz kid)
Sat - Tominator

Good luck with those northern birds LOTO, nice thread

Liam .. I'm also a very happily married man however the report in the RP this morning was interesting and made me smile (was it Steve Dennis) about wobbly binoculars. I've no doubt there will be some exceptionally pretty women at York (as there always are) and it might just be me but I think they are usually more than (all) girlie (not a lot of artificially stuffed breasts and the genuine article).

Sint

Looking at the prices so far, cannot see me backing Vita Nova. On the book she has so much to find, and really was expecting her to be closer to double figures. Again this is a very tight race that his hard to form a strong opinion about, may well leave it alone.

As far as tomorrow is concerned I also like Shropshire, think he will appreciate the softer ground. Also backing Racy in that race.

Interesting that a couple of people like Moon Pearl and I am playing that one

I wasn't sure if I'd be laying Seville but at the prices it's a no brainer for me how to play the race and Namibian has to be backed. If the 8 runners remain intact then the 9/2 quarter the odds will also look very tempting as it's difficult to see him out of the first 3, even if it turns into one of those falsely run Voltigeurs we've seen in the past. I've also been tempted to back him for the Leger, I'm sure he's good enough to take an average one, but I'm not a trader and I'm worried that he will leave his race behind today. I'd be more inclined to back him there if today's race was slowly run and he got narrowly beaten.

I regard myself as a pretty poor assessor of sprints, I would be interested in the views of forumites on the chances of David Wachman's two year old Requinto.

He is very well bred, the dam was a top two year old sprinter, and Dansili gets them over a variety of distances.

Shropshire ran a shocker. I thought he was worth a go under todays conditions but clearly regressing quicker than Rooneys hairline.

well, I tried to say re: Seville. 
Just wish i'd put the forecast in!

SHort road to the poor house is Seville.

Bad luck Figgis.  I said earlier that for Seville to get beaten it would require either something else to make considerable improvement or for Seville himself to run below his best.  In the event, both things happened: the winner showed dramatic improvement (which was always going to be a possibility) and in my opinion the disappointing Seville appeared to run some way below his previous best efforts - perhaps he hadn't recovered from a hard race in the Grand Prix de Paris.  The winner is clearly very smart.

well done Jair.

Snow Fairy a NR tomorrow and instead heads to France on Sunday. Perhaps the ground is softer than it seems.

jamesp Joined: 05 Jan 02
Replies: 1058 17 Aug 11 15:25   

Bad luck Figgis.  I said earlier that for Seville to get beaten it would require either something else to make considerable improvement or for Seville himself to run below his best.  In the event, both things happened: the winner showed dramatic improvement (which was always going to be a possibility) and in my opinion the disappointing Seville appeared to run some way below his previous best efforts - perhaps he hadn't recovered from a hard race in the Grand Prix de Paris.  The winner is clearly very smart.

Yeah, when Sea Moon became such a big price I was tempted to back him too, but unfortunately I resisted. No excuse for Namibian, he just looked knackered. No doubts that Seville ran below form too, but I still contend that his form was overrated. As for Sea Moon, he has definitely improved but he ran a very good time giving 6lbs to the Godolphin horse last time, pulling well clear of the rest, so I don't think it was such a huge step up. The slow ground exaggerated the beaten distances but I have him improving 7lbs.


sintonian Joined: 21 Sep 04
Replies: 14379 17 Aug 11 15:28   

Sea Moon looked so good you could have a tilt at the Arc but obviously they have Workforce.


Actually, sint, if he was mine I wouldn't bother with the Leger, I'd go straight to France.

I am firmly against ATD at the prices and backed TO and Midday last week when it became clear they were both likely runners. ATD did NOT look like a horse who wanted to step down in trip at R Ascot and IMO he is way too short for a horse having his first run in Group 1 company and up against proven Group 1 winners. I would admit that he is still unexposed and could just be a cut above these but happy to take him on. When AOB is REALLY confident he only runs one so the fact that ROC is in there is another reason to be wary I think.

The race will be run at a decent clip to play to ATD's stamina but I think this will favour Midday as well. She is so classy and so consistent and I can't see her being out of the first 2. Twice Over has perhaps seen better days but he did show a return to form last time out and goes well here. 8-1 was too big and he has been such a great benefactor to me over the years I almost HAD to back him!

WHat a lovely race and the perfect result for me!!

Well the day started horrendously when carvillshill texted me the Bapak chinta news . Shropshire (fray bentos bound) and Kanaf(not fray bentos bound) made it first blood to the books. I managed to bail out on Fort bastion in the next @evens. Sea moon redressed the balance somewhat with a visually impressive performance (125 rpr) in the GV and TO put me in profit for the day with a v.game show in the JI. Who would have thought 2 runs back TO would be winning that race ! Take a bow sir. On the hoof just got the place money in the nursery despite hanging markedly left under pressure, races to be won with him soon. Gave some back in the last,despite carvills telling me OJM was his best bet !!

Trust you had a good day LOTO

Early pickings for 2mrw are Mont Agel, Crystal capella and Mirror lake. Im also on Wizz kid and Swiss diva in the Nunthorpe, these two are overpriced imo.

Good luck everyone.

just the 1 for tomorrow so far,Laughing Lashes-yorkshire oaks 10/1

sint 'It gives an opportunity to younger racing fans, like myself'

18-28 5/4
28-38 3/1
38+   10/1

i will take a 2pt win at 18-28 please

9/4 with c0rals

she will take alot of beating,only the fact that she has the penalty to carry put me off backing her