Sint, Figgis, Headmaster dude and other bright (> than average) people ..

I've not really looked at much just yet Liberator but do think Await The Dawn is progressive. If the going is Good him and Midday should have a great battle but i'll be backing ATD provided he is odds-against.

Bapak Chinta has the assistance of Paul Hanagan and he'd be my pick for the Nunthorpe, provided again the going is Good. Requinto has been supplemented which is an interesing consideration also.

Not looked at the Ebor or any anything else yet...

Figgis and Co are the people for times etc ..

Bapak Chinta - Nunthorpe
Tazahum - Strensall
Modun - Ebor

The opening day (Wednesday) looks very difficult for backers.  In the Acomb Stakes (2.30) I'm prepared to give Fort Bastion another chance, especially if he's a decent each-way price: on the face of it he disappointed last time in the Superlative Stakes (where he started favourite), but I thought that Peslier gave him a poor ride that day and he was never given a proper chance to get into the race.  He's up against no fewer than seven once-raced maiden winners and three other last-time-out winners, and it's anyone's guess which of them will turn out to be the best, but the pick may prove to be Brian Meehan's Archbishop, a lovely sort who won a slowly-run Sandown maiden but looks to have a touch of class.

In the Great Voltigeur (3.05) Al Kazeem and Sea Moon (an erstwhile Derby fancy) are interesting lightly-raced handicap winners, but it's a long time since a horse won this race on the back of a handicap win, so it's best to focus on the runners with solid Group race form and the best of those (by some margin) is Seville, runner-up in two Group 1's and taking a drop in class.  He's probably not going to be a backable price but he's very hard to oppose.  The only concern is the fact that O'Brien has a dreadful record with his three-year-olds over here this season (just two winners from 29 runners).  Namibian is a typically tough Mark Johnston horse, who's won a couple of Group 3 races, but more is needed here.  Genius Beast has some decent bits of form but seems to lack a change of gear.

In the Juddmonte International (3.40) Await The Dawn will be a short price to gain his first Group 1 victory.  He's been impressive in both starts this year and it's hard to pick holes in his form, but if he's too short a price he might be worth taking on with the ultra-consistent Midday, who loves the track and is a proven Group 1 performer.

The opening sprint handicap (2.00) and the nursery (4.15) look impossible to fathom, but in the concluding 10f handicap I'm interested in Barren Brook, a previous York winner who is progressing nicely, has a good turn of foot, seemed to idle in front when winning last time at Doncaster, and this time benefits from the services of Kieren Fallon.  However, a good run from Thimaar in the Great Voltigeur earlier on the card would be a clear pointer to the chances of once-raced maiden winner Eagles Peak, who beat him at Newmarket last month.

Thank - you. That's me sorted. Is appreciated.

I agree re Al Kazeem. Yes it was a handicap, but beat what has turned out to be a field of very progressive horses easily and giving weight. On the book Seville clearly is the one to beat but wouldn't want to take 11/8 about a horse that while has been Group 1 placed, has only one a maiden.

On Thursday I want to be with Vita Nova as likely to be an e/w price. Clearly a lot to find, but again very progressive and whilst the 3yo's will be very hard to beat, Cecil would not pitch her at this level if he didn't think she had a chance.

If it comes up soft for Ebor, then Montaff e/w for me

Good luck all

I think the Voltigeur is extremely tight between the top 3 in the betting. I know many form students will have Seville well on top here but I have only 1 pound between each of them, Namibian, Sea Moon, Seville, in that order. Seville undoubtedly has the most potential judged on what he did as a 2yo but this year, even though he's been running in supposedly better class races, I don't think he's achieved any more than the other two. Like I say, it's possible he could improve here and the margins are so close there's really nothing between them, the pace of the race could make all the difference but the value definitely lies with the other two.

TheFormMan

A touch of paranoia me thinks. I think you'll find if you look back on most threads it is you that has popped up to oppose and even try to ridicule my points of view, Misty For Me and Pisco Sour spring to mind.

As for those races you mention, the Derby excepted (in which Seville performed abysmally), they were nothing special and typical of many 3yo only group races.

It looks like I also need to explain to you that my aim is to make money at this game, whatever that takes. Strange as it may seem laying 7/2 about available 11/8 chances is not part of my modus operandi. Occasionally I have a strong view and I make that clear, as with Pisco Sour, but many other times I don't know for sure which horse will win, however, this does not stop me from seeking and often finding value in a race. I find this is a better approach for me than crowing to all and sundry that the next short priced favourite cannot possibly get beat, then looking a right **** when it does just that [;)]

not at all figgs,when i post on here i'm the same with eveyone,my abuse is just my playful manor,i actually think you have excellent knowledge for racing and betting from what i have read,i just dont think the opinion you posted about this race is an honest one is all

My approach is similar, Figgis - I like to find a horse that is bigger odds than it deserves to be.  But on this occasion I can't find a value alternative to Seville and so won't be having a bet (unless there is a gamble on the Stoute horse, in which case I will either lay the Stoute horse or back Seville).  If Seville reproduces either of his last two performances he will win (in my opinion).

LMFAO at the title of this thread.

Have a great meeting OP ... York is the best flat day out in the country.

'sint' now starts a thread every time a horse with any slight Guineas aspirations farts so he can bring it to the top next May ... clueless idiot.

TFM, I hope you're right, it'll mean more value. Incidentally, I did agree with you today about Golden Lilac, more's the pity [;)]. I wish I'd taken more notice of my figures as she obviously not as good as she appeared. She did win for us both the previous time though so she owes us nothing. My small Arc bet on her has been binned though.

Maybe, it's just a bit worrying that even though her other wins looked impressive they were achieved off early crawls and today when she was properly tested she failed to deliver. What was that all about with Galikova's pacemaker? Looked like he wanted another snail pace.

TFM
Just out of curiosity, do you subscribe to Timeform? I see on the ATR website their pick is Sea Moon. Do they often pick horses that have 11lbs to find? It's a genuine question, as while I certainly don't automatically back my top rated horses I would very rarely back one that fell 11lbs short.

Totally disagree with that analysis TheFormMan.

Think Golden Lilac got found out today and would happily back Galikova to beat her every time from now on.

Horses with a turn of foot will always look classy in a slow run race but given a true pace, will have to be superlative to pitch a 11s final furlong on the end.  That's not to say she isn;t classy, more that she's won races that have suited her and has come up short off a decent pace today.

Re the Voltigeur

It's far too simplistic to take a look at the entrants and purely react to the seemingly 'obvious' form.

Sure Seville has been competing at a high level, but the horse has developed a severe case of seconditis.  Add this to the fact that he's dropping down in class here but clearly prepping and his trainer's miserable recent record in the race and you've got too many questions to answer at very short odds.

I would have full respect for Sea Moon and Al Kazeem here as horses that haven't shown their hand yet; particularly for Sea Moon, this has most likely been the plan for some while and both can show themselves to be much better than their form currently suggests.

Amongst the rest of the field Namibian is clearly a tough sort and i'd not be ruling out Regent Street to outrun his odds, though pacemaking duties possible.

This race is often more competatiove than first appears on paper and this year is no exception IMO

Really, in no way is Seville a good bet at the prices.

I would hardly call it a miserable recent record,

2010 2 runners,MIDAS TOUCH 2ND
               JOSHUAS TREE 3RD
2009 no runners
2008 no runners
2007 4 runners,YELLOWSTONE 2ND
               MACARTHUR 3RD
               ACAPULCO 4TH
               MAHLER 5TH
2006 2 runners,PUERTO RICO 3RD
               FIRE AND RAIN 6TH
as you can see,its not a race he targets every year and they have all run ok,the only of the above to go off favorite was Yellowstone,the rest were all fair prices and ran upto there form,i would certainlly suggest that Seville is a better horse than any of the above and very much merits his current price

Jair

dont wont to put you off Al Kazeem(esp at these prices),but he had a slight setback after Newbury.I e-mailed Mr Charlton as he was down to run last weekend(i fancied him if he ran think it was at Newmarket) and he informed me of this,but did say he would be back for the GV.

Agree - great stuff this.

FWIW I think Seville is by far the most likely winner of the race and I have always been a big fan (he is in my TTTF). However I wouldnt be wanting to back him at the price. I think Namibian is rather under-rated coming from the less fashionable Mark Johnston stable. I agree he has only scraped home the last twice but he is a horse who always seems to find that litle bit more and I think he could give the fav something to think about. I backed Solar Sky at R Ascot and was counting my money a furlong out until this one rallied really well. I think the race will be run to suit and, in SDS, he has arguably the strongest jockey out there at the moment.

Not much of a fan of Sea Moon but have heard he is working the house down on the gallops and has certainly been given a campaign aimed at the second half of the season.

So my bet would probably be a win on Namibian with a reverse forecast cover with the fav.

I am firmly against ATD at the prices and backed TO and Midday last week when it became clear they were both likely runners. ATD did NOT look like a horse who wanted to step down in trip at R Ascot and IMO he is way too short for a horse having his first run in Group 1 company and up against proven Group 1 winners. I would admit that he is still unexposed and could just be a cut above these but happy to take him on. When AOB is REALLY confident he only runs one so the fact that ROC is in there is another reason to be wary I think.

The race will be run at a decent clip to play to ATD's stamina but I think this will favour Midday as well. She is so classy and so consistent and I can't see her being out of the first 2. Twice Over has perhaps seen better days but he did show a return to form last time out and goes well here. 8-1 was too big and he has been such a great benefactor to me over the years I almost HAD to back him!

I love this meeting and can't wait for it to all kick off tomorrow.