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The St Leger (G1)
The St Leger (G1)
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For those that like things in the correct order:
134 SO YOU THINK 133 WORKFORCE 128p SEA MOON 127 BEHKABAD 127 NATHANIEL 126 SARAFINA 126 ST NICHOLAS ABBEY 124p POUR MOI 123 MEANDRE 120 RELIABLE MAN |
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Too many imponderables from that race, (ground, rivals running their race) to be giving Sea Moon a 128P just yet! Of the 3yo, it would have to be Pour Moi for me. Derby form is holding up well and he looked really impressive that day, plus has been given a proper Arc prep - trainer knows his onions.... etc
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I have to agree, DO. 128p seems very high when compared with the winners of the Derby, King George, French Derby and GP de Paris. The top 3-y-o Yank is still Animal Kingdom on 125 and the best Aussies clock in at 124.
So, is Sea Moon really the best 3-y-o colt in the world right now??? And, if so, is the best 3-y-o colt in the world going to unleash his fury in the Leger of all races??? As a 'supporter' of the old race, I'd be delighted if that was the case, Betfair book aside..... |
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I expect that the trainer 'knows' how good he is and ratings not withstanding has prepped him for the Leger and he'll go there. He'll have his hands full with the godolphin filly if they send her mind, she is as tough as old boots and not easily for passing. Would be a great match up.
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Yes, an absolute classic in every sesne of the word, Des. Game on.
I should, of course, point out that Sea Moon is the best 3-y-o MIDDLE DISTANCE colt in the world right now, according to Timeform. Wouldn't wish to upset any Frankel fans. |
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This "BOUNCE" theory which has wended it's way from America, is
NOT a fact, it is just a theory. Consider this fact, BRIGADIER GERARD was unbeaten at 2, went into winter quarters and won fist time out as a 3yo, so the theory says that he should have bounced after winning the 2000 guineas, but he didn't, nor did as a 4yo. There are many examples of this pattern especially amongst classy horses. |
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My understanding of the bounce theory is that it's a lot deeper than the old 'second run back off a break' line that is trotted out ad infinitum (in the UK). Might be wrong though!
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The 'bounce factor' only concerns horses who have come back from being off the track a long time (mainly due to injury) had one run and are abot to take there second run back from injury.nothing at all to do with healthy horses just having extended breaks between races or first runs back of a new season
also as stated above by bazz,the whole theory may just be a myth |
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will Slumber run now the fav is hot ......wonder will K Abdulla run the Hills Horse
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I think there are major doubts about the reliability of the Gt V form myself.
Real gutsy horses like Namibian were beaten on the home turn and Seville in third ran massively below his best form. To give Sea Moon a rating of 119 you would have to assume that the second, Al Khazeem, ran a pound better than he ever has before in his life, and he seems to quite like winning on good to firm! Although he has won on good ground, Sea Moon may be inconvenienced by ground quicker than that. He is a perhaps doubtful runner and whilst he is undoubtedly very good, with scope to improve further, he is not for me at 6/4. I would think the filly, Blue Bunting, who ran 120 at York, with scope to improve and in receipt of 3 lbs is a very viable alternative. She is progressive, stays very well and seems to have, a bit like his rider, a dislike of losing in close finishes. she will provide Sea Moon with a test, even if he does run, which is, as I say far from certain. |
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Sea Moon 121
Blue Bunting 118 O/Rs after York. |
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A bit more realistic than Timeforms 128p HM, although I suspect that both marks are possible underestimating the horses by a pound or two. Nonetheless, with the fillies allowance and her ability to battle and grind, BB makes much more appeal at the prices - whether the favourite swerves the race or not (I expect he'll line up, personally).
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I'd agree, DO. My 'three off the tee' were Memphis Tennessee, Masked Marvel and Blue Bunting. Seems like we'll get two to post and Masked Marvel still strikes me as the value atm...but Bunting looks rock-solid to these eyes.
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Nobody like Census??
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I definitely do, alex. Just think the relative prices of Census and Masked Marvel have got out of sync after Newbury.
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Timeform Top 3-y-os has been updated now. That is NOT a provisional figure next to Sea Moon, it's really what they think the horse is worth - and if Stoute thinks the same I'd say it's a proper coin toss between Doncaster and the Prix Niel.
THREE YEAR OLDS 142 FRANKEL 129 DREAM AHEAD 128p SEA MOON 128 EXCELEBATION 127 IMMORTAL VERSE 127 NATHANIEL 124p POUR MOI 124 STRONG SUIT 123 MEANDRE 123 MISTY FOR ME 123 TREASURE BEACH 122 BLUE BUNTING 122 CARLTON HOUSE 122 ELZAAM 122 MARGOT DID 122 MOONLIGHT CLOUD 122 MUTUAL TRUST 122 SEVILLE 122 WIZZ KID 121 PATHFORK 121 ZOFFANY |
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HM - understand your thinking but he does look to have improved since Newmarket and seemed unlucky there in any case?
Not sure what to make of the Newbury form. On a line through the third looks pretty decent but less so through the fourth. He does look progressive though and very likely to be suited by the step up in trip. |
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personally..i think sea moon will go for the leger...but could still turn up for the arc...depends on how workforce is...if he's all systems go...then i think not for this yr.
HM..but with that voucher..i can see why your fingers are crossed.[;)] |
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Yes, I suspect you're right trev and I should also apologise. Quite clear that I'm big red for the Leger and (much) bigger green in France and all posts since the Voltigeur have been made from that standpoint! Hardly a considered view.
 Tbh, I'm highly dubious of the race and to give a horse a 'p' next to 128 is very bold imo. Would be interested to know the biggest rating Timeform has ever given a horse that was followed by a 'p'. There are surely limitations on how fast any horse can run so to expect him to improve again off 128 makes you wonder where Timeform think Sea Moon will ultimately slot in. They've already said Frankel is one big run away from being the highest horse they've ever rated and now, given the 'likely to improve' rating, Sea Moon appears to be bearing down on some all-time greats too. Alarm bells imo! |
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Don't wish to crab Census at all, alex. Looks like he's "man'd up" since Newmarket, although I thought he was a little flattered at the time to get so close to MM (who looked like he was going to bolt up at one stage) with Fortune just nudging him along through the last half-furlong. I like MM's bottom line too - plenty of stout german blood swilling around in there. But the Leger is often won by the 'momentum' horse and your lad fits the bill there, no doubt.
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Anyone know when the latest entries will be released to the undeserving unwashed?
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Midday tomorrow, Sankara.
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HM...dont feel to bad...i would imagine 99% of all comments made...are somewhat pocket based..including mine with 20s ,SM, for the leger
 its a punters natural instinct...erics..made an art of it  |
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I`m on Blue Bunting at 14s.
Still think 6/1 is great value. |
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Census is better on a flat track, particularly left handed,imo.
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17 remain
Apache (IRE) Brown Panther Buthelezi (USA) Census (IRE) Dordogne (IRE) Freedom (IRE) Genius Beast (USA) Masked Marvel Namibian (IRE) Regent Street (IRE) Sea Moon Seville (GER) Thimaar (USA) Well Sharp Whiplash Willie Blue Bunting (USA) Wonder of Wonders (USA) |
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19 horses were scratched: Admiral Of The Red (Ire), Aloeil (Fr), Casamento (Ire), Eternal Heart (Ire), Fiorente (Ire), French Navy, Laatafreet (Ire), Lyric Street (Ire), Marksmanship (Ire), Memphis Tennessee (Ire), Monte Carlo (Ire), Nathaniel (Ire), Pivotman, Sadler's Risk (Ire), Slumber, Solar Sky, Treasure Beach, Wild Coco (Ger), Zain Al Boldan
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Fiorent out then. Amazing he was trading at 12's on here after Stoute all but ruled him out.
I think Lataafreet must have had a setback as he had a host of entries after his maiden win but nothing currently. |
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Like Blue Bunting as seems just the 'type' for the Leger. Had a little at 5/1 today
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Headmaster .. a few sleepless nights but good ones. Be a cracking race (Leger that is) and I think Blue will just outstay them. We have this consideration every year however usually 6 - 10 go to post and maybe 3 maximum 4 stay if there is pace and that's how it is. You need a classy animal but you also need a real gutsy animal and Bunting looks exactly that even though I've not backed it. Nevertheless good luck. Wish I was in you position.
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Some confidence in BB
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I have thought for some time that The Leger is the absolute perfect race for Blue Bunting! Even now she seems to be an each way bet to nothing.
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Masked Marvel also appears overpriced based on his beating of Census where, imo, he was just idling rather than getting tired.
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As far am I'm aware connections of Sea Moon and Blue Bunting haven't committed to running in the race and
in sea Moon's case they've expressed it's only an option. Its difficult to see what else Blue Bunting could run in and it would be a surprise if she didn't but she's no certain starter. |
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The Prix Vermeille for BB would be a very viable option. Could then decide on Arc or Breeder's Cup if won and came out of race well. If she went to St Leger, then think it will be her final race this year as no doubt will be a tough race.
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Why would Blue Bunting even be considered for the Breeders Cup sharp US tracks obviously would not suit her!! Doubt a slow run French Arc Trial would suit her either and would tell them nothing imo. Think they are too shrewd to consider these options. Can always keep her in training next year and then plan a campaign around top 12f races. Winning the St Leger wouldn't preclude them from doing that
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Straight to the Arc for BB imo
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 [smiley:crazy] |
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im still fascninated by Wonder of Wonders. She doesn't appear to have the pace, or perhaps the ability, to be winning group 1s over 12f. When she won at Chester over 11.5f, albeit beating trees, she looked better the further she went. At 100/1 and 95/1 i've had £15 on to win. It is totally speculative as she might not even run.
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In an ordinary year I would like your bet a lot Sint, notwithstanding the fact that Chester and Donny are about as disimilar as two tracks could be. I've always considered the Leger to be the Stayers Hurdle of Classics, generally contested by those not quite good enough at the top level to have made a mark elsewhere. In that the filly fits the bill. However, with Sea Moon and BB most likely in oppo (with the latter being a multiple G1 winner already) I think this is too strong a renewal and if lining up am supremely confident that the winner will come from one of those two, my preference being BB at the prices.
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