Pretty Polly Stakes (25/07/11)

june/ not july barthezz

Haha, thanks elis! My bad.

Korral were 11/10, utter madness imo. Midday is more like a 4/6 shot here.

I am not going to bother backing her in s ingle but will stick her in a double with Sarafina on Sunday.

A race to savour. Snow Fairy looked every inch the superstar in the Far East last winter but this is a big ask first time out.

Winner receives automatic entry to the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf + a $20,000 travel allowance.

Misty For Me

Ticks all the boxes. Classic winner , course form , ground , trainer nearly unbeatable in Group 1`s at the Curragh. Also gets a hefty weight for age allowance.

Snow Fairy unlikely to be fully wound up. Any cut in the ground will hinder Midday.

13/2 looks value.

Doubled up with Deauville Flyer @ 14s in Plate.

If snow fairy is fully fit 5/2 looks big, her form in Asia over this trip is better than anything the others
have achieved. If the grounds fast her turn of foot will be too much for these, i cann't see it being quick
though.

they are predicting Good ground.

Snow Fairy is entered for France on Sunday also, so depending on the ground etc.

Price update after decs:

Midday (4/5) , Snow Fairy (11/4) , Misty for Me (6) , Claiomh Solais (25) , Chrysanthemum (28) , Aoife Alainn (33) , Empowering (40) , Obama Rule (66)

Aoife Alainn is a nice horsie and just the type to keep one of the top3 out the places.

Snow Fairy's a non-runner

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/ground-rules-snow-fairy-out-of-pretty-polly/875984/top/

Misty For Me

looks a cert

Jog On

Midday will urinate on this

why do people make the assumption that Midday is vulnerable on soft ground when she is already a 2 time group 1 winner on 'soft ground' and impressive at that,not only travelling beautifuly on it but also being able to quicken on it.

Irish soft is different to English soft.

But much the same as French soft..

If irish soft is softer then english soft - what is irish heavy equivalent
to in england?

that should be - If english soft is softer then irish soft

12lb WFA on Soft ground could make things interesting.

Whilst Midday handles soft very well and has been pretty awesome on it in the past, it makes the weight concession a little harder.

Anyway, with Snow Fiary now out of the race the prices are phucked and it is one for watching imo

no french soft is more gluey and sticky like Newbury Soft on a midweek jumps meeting but not like York soft or Royal Ascot Soft but softer than Shergar Cup Soft which is just soft. Its like German soft but softer than Italian soft which isnt as soft as Irish Soft.

Soft lad

Midday is the obvious worthy fav but MFM has to be value at the prices. She'll need to bounce back from a poor run in the Oaks but she'd just had a hard race in the Irish 1,000 and the race at Epsom was a bit of a farce. She handled soft ground very well in last year's Boussac, where, for me, she looked very much a middle distance type. 12lbs is a big concession to a decent 3yo and on my figures that puts MFM only 2lbs behind Midday. Taking into account MFM has the potential to improve a bit more, whereas Midday has probably already peaked, there is too big a difference between the prices.

Utter rubbish,how can MFM be value at the prices in a race that she cant possibly win and at 7/2 when you will lose money backing her each way even if she places,if she gets Midday off the bridle then i will be hugely surprised

TheFormMan
All you always seem to go for the short priced favs and every races appear black and white to you, I have never known anybody with such a viewpoint win money long term, but if you do, well done. I have backed her win, not each way, win or lose I'm happy with my bet.

* are the short priced favs

I would only ever bet on races that are black and white to my eyes and yes the magority are short price favorites usally ranging between 1/2 and 3/1 shots and personally over the years i have found that is the only way to win money long term,but what works for some may not work for others,i guess its each to there own.
But you seriously cant have much confidence in MFM turning over Midday,the current crop of 3 yo fillys in britain this year are the worst in a long time and set a very poor standard,her form stacks upto nothing and she will be comprehensively put in her place today by a multiple global group 1 winning mare,but i wish you luck all the same

TFM
I'm not saying I have the utmost confidence MFM will beat Midday. Gun to my head, Midday would be my pick, obviously 2/5 shots win more than 7/2 chances. However, my objective is not to pick the most winners, it's to make an overall profit. I don't believe the outcome is as much in Midday's favour as the prices suggest. MFM has to bounce back from a poor effort, she might not do, leaving Midday to hose up, but at 7/2 I'll gladly take the risk.

you say that MFM has to bounce back from a poor effort and it sounds as tho you believe if she does run to the best of her ability, (which i truely expect that she will) then she has a chance of winning,but the truth is that MFM's best ever performance will not even be enough to get Midday off the bridle,the gulf in class is huge here and as much as i am a huge ballydoyle fan,there really is only one outcome here and the prices are correct

TFM, so approximately how many pounds do you think Midday has in hand?

Also, TFM, if there really is only one outcome then surely the prices are incorrect, as Midday would be a gift of a price?

She can't handle Irish Soft.

More poignantly ELG, MFM seems to absolutely love it.

sensational performance from the winner... no excuses for midday.

2nd time Curragh soft has found out midday :(

top stuff Figgis. One for the TTF lists

theFormMan, eat some humble pie.

top stuff Figgis. One for the TTF lists

theFormMan, eat some humble pie.

the ground today Elg was nowhwere near like the Heavy from 2 years ago in the Oaks, Elg. That was officially Heavy and genuinely aquaplaning!

Suns out now. Curragh a massive place. wide open. get a good breeze and should be better ground tomorrow.

[:x] i was already down and out by race time anyway as had her doubled up with regal parade

But congrats to Figgs,good call

hard luck FormMan...backed Regal Parade myself. odd day....few odd performances formwise.

started this morning with Beaded getting nutted in the Tattersalls Tiara G1 at EagleFarm when seemingly the best horse in the race by a long way. could kill corey brown. useless. how he won a melbourne cup is beyond me.

you on Sarafina tomorrow TFM ? She should oblige but no idea what price she is..

4/7

Ta, Sint, TFM.

As previously stated , it is very difficult to beat O`Brien in Group 1`s on his own patch.
Think the Queen will find this out tomorrow,

sprint races can turn up odd results very often,think i will steer clear of them from now and i am indeed on Sarafina sinton,would have liked a few of the raiders to stay in and give us a price,but not to be,so have just doubled her up with Seville in the derby and hoping the curragh does not dry out to much