Dancing Rain Oaks

tt has put it up as a max e/w bet

And if anyone knows, the turnip does

Nick Mordin thinks it should be favourite too.

One problem for Dancing Rain, quite aside from the fact that she has a huge amount to find on form, is that she is not actually bred to stay 12 furlongs. Her sister seemed to be best at 10 and she is by a miler out of a sprint sired 7 furlong bred mare.

I have backed her as a decent saver because of the stable confidence suggesting she's improved a lot. Occasionally horses do get trips they are not bred for but it does seem a bit far fetched to think Dancing Rain will need 12 furlongs to be seen at her very best.

The oaks is quite a good renewal this year I would say, with the 2 Guineas winners both having pretentions to stay, the Michael Stoute filly definitely having a good chance and Aiden's apparent first string a pretty impressive winner of the Cheshire Oaks.

fallon on wonder of wonders

Did Eswarah win her final start before Oaks ?

^^^^^^ amateur

Only messing, think it was the same maiden they won and definitely same listed race, although she was beaten lto i think she's streets ahead of izzi top and distance to suit.

Intersting booking. One of Haggas' go to Men when he is in the UK. Think they have a very decent LSP together.

how is dancing rain streets ahead of izzi top please?

by Danehill Dancer (8.1)  out of Rain Flower by Indian Ridge (7.8) -  definitely doesn't look anything like 12 furlong breeding to me!

Rainflower was out of an Alleged mare though. She gets 10 furlongs okay and does run  like she might stay.

She needs to improve by around a stone (at the very least) on what she has done on the racecourse yet though; and though I think she is interesting, she very probably just isn't good enough, even for a place.

The ground will probably be firm for the Oaks (I know the official going will be "good") so that might help the doubtful stayers to get home.

Just some bits from my analysis of the Oaks runners pedigrees.

Dancing Rain:
Dosage Index for 5 generations pedigree 2.28 (average for 1991 to 2010 1.48)
Past winners with a similar high number:
Fair Salinia 1978 2.48; Blue Wind 1981 2.00; Time Charter 1982 2.38; Unite 1987 2.25;
Balanchine 1994 2.36; Shahtoush 1998 2.23; Ouija Board 2004 2.67; Snow Fairy 2010 2.00.

I'm not a fan of AWD (average winning distance) of a sire's progeny.  I like to look at the most common winning distance.
Now that number is not published but I gathered numbers from a publication of 40k+ wins (it was a summary report with totals for each sire).

Dancing Rain:
You can see from the Racing Post website that her sire Danehill Dancer has these progeny stats:
5f-6f 2430 wins; 7f-9f 4186; 10f-11f 872; 12f-13f 432; 14f+ 151.  You would guess from that that most of the wins are at 7f.

I used my summary to give me numbers for the sires further back in Dancing Rain's pedigree to see if she got help from them to stay further.
Sire side:  sire Danehill Dancer probably 7f (see above);  sire's sire Danehill 8f: sire's sire's sire Danzig 7f.  Sire's dam sire Sharpen Up 8f.
Dam side: dam sire Indian Ridge 7f; dam's sire sire Ahonoora 6f; dam's dam sire Alleged 12f.

Sire side: a short runner probably not good for 12f.
Dam side: the only staying sire here is Alleged.
Of the six sires in her first three generations 1 x 6f; 3 x 7f; 2 x 8f; 1 x 12f

The other two sires on her bottom line (dam line) are Northern Dancer (4th gen) 10f; Sicambre (5th gen) has produced quality middle-distance winners.

I don't see a racing record for Dancing Rain's dam Rain Flower so no clue there on possible staying distance.
Rain Flower's dam Rose Of Jericho was the dam of Derby winner Dr Devious (who was by Ahonoora 6f).

Having said all that my bet on the Oaks is Beatrice Aurore, also sired by Danehill Dancer.  Her dam side sires give her a chance of staying.
Dancing Rain:  DS 7f; DSS 6f; DDS 12f
Beatrice Aurore: DS 12f; DSS 12f; DDS 12f.  DS Rainbow Quest; DSS Blushing Groom 12f; Mill Reef 12f.

The most common winning distances quoted above are at a point in time and may not cover all of a sire's career at stud.

kinskem

amazing diligence and a good read - thanks.

Having done all that work - do you think Dancing Rain will stay?

I think she might (maybe) but am about 55% that's all.

The course is fast so having a staying pedigree might mean **** all.
The stayers might finish in mid-division.
Then people will say the stayers didn't stay.
The course might not be a stiff enough test today to slow down the non-stayers.

On pedigree Misty For Me; Dancing Rain look like the non-stayers.

Pros and Cons

Beatrice Aurore:
(-) Has won against lower grade opposition. Her sire Danehill Dancer was a sprinter and sires typically 7f horses.
(+) She is agile as she showed twice at Goodwood.  She has a turn of foot.  He damside pedigree has good staying sires: Rainbow Quest; Blushing Groom; Mill Reef.

Blaise Chorus:
(-) Has not won a pattern race (G1,G2,G3, listed).  Poor finishing kick imo.  Still a maiden.
(+) A staying pedigree.

Blue Bunting:
(-) Has only raced on straight courses (?).  imo won 1000 Guineas by outstaying others into headwind.  Epsom uphill, turns, camber might not suit.
(+) A staying pedigree.  A half-sister won over 2m2f.

Dancing Rain:
(-) a non-staying pedigree imo.  Similar level to Beatrice Aurore (both beat Highest 1 1/2l)
(+) Nick Mordin picks her.

Eirnin:
(-) Only a narrow maiden win.   Well beaten / never up with pace.
(+) Mostly raced on soft.  Firm ground might help.

Fork Handles:
(-) Damsire Ballacashtal was a sprinter iirc.  Her sire Doyen has yoet to produce a G1 winner.  Held by Wonder Of Wonders on form.
(+) Has raced in four group races so has experience.

Havant:
(-) Said to prefer soft and it isn't soft.
(+) A good 6th in the 1000 Guineas, and a good G3 winner.  More a 10f filly imo.

Izzi Top:
(-) Looks like a non-staying pedigree, sire and damsire both milers.
(+) Good enought to narrowly beat Dancing Rain, but beaten by Charleston Lady who is withdrawn.

Misty For Me;
(-) Storm Cat as her damsire says to me she will not stay.  Also Mr Prospector on her dam side not a staying influence.
(+) Easily the best form in the race with three G1 wins.

Siren's Song:
(-) Might / might not stay.  No evidence of a turn of foot.  Has only raced twice so lacks experience.
(+) Her only two runs were at 1m2f.

Why:
(-) Well beaten in 5 of 6 races - no impression (2); never a factor(1)
(+) Her dam won two G1s.

Wonder Of Wonders:
(-) "looked ill at ease on track" at Chester.  A big filly and may not like the downhill and camber of Epsom.
(+) won on 28th April and then six days later over 1m3 1/2f at Chester.  She has a wonderful pedigree well suited to 1m4f.  Her dam was 2nd in the Oaks.  She is a full sister to Derby winner Galileo.  She is "bred in the purple" and should be in the royal box with the Queen.
She wins on pedigree by a distance.  But will she win on the course?

Zain Al Boldan:
(-) Her sire Poliglote has not sire a G1 winner.  The pedigree is a little weak.
(+) She is unbeaten and won the trial at Lingfield by 6 lengths.

Beatrice Aurore; Wonder Of Wonders; Havant in that order would please me.

Props to winners.

Cryoftruth want to give some to Nick Mordin ?

tt once more pulls a belter of of the bag for clients

Some fine displays of tactical nous from those jockeys in behind, Fallon excepted. Must have clocks in their heads

I've watched the race again on the Sporting Life website.

The commentator mentions Dancing Rain leading in the first few furlongs at a "dawdling pace".

The leading five for most of the way were Dancing Rain, Wonder Of Wonders, Blaise Chorus, Misty For Me, Izzy Top.  When they turned into the straight Johnny Murtagh sprinted for home.  He (1) got the jump on the field (2) had saved energy by the slow pace (3)  he was on one of the speediest pedigrees in the field (Misty For Me the other).  It was impossible for the mid-field horses to peg back the lead as the whole field sprinted.   The leading five into the straight finished 1,2,3,5,11.   Blaise Chorus finished out of the first fourin 11th with her staying pedigree (she couldn't sprint). 

Frankie Dettori actually got Blue Bunting into 3rd just before the line and then stopped riding allowing Izzy Top to snatch 3rd.

I'd oppose any of the first four if they run over 12f again.

Good question Jair. Although it obviously looks simply as if he thought they would win it from a slower pace. He simply didn't count on one being better. There can be no other explanation. He had two potential pacemakers in there, whom he said had a right to run their own race. He got it wrong.

Well done to Dancing Rain supporters. I know it was a slow pace, but over the years I have learned its not always easy to discount winning form, or dismiss it as a fluke. Dancing Rain was going away again at the finish. She was well ridden but was a worthy winner imo.