Dancing Rain Oaks

tt has put it up as a max e/w bet

And if anyone knows, the turnip does

Cheers BJG that explains the market move. Excuse my ignorance, tt?

Nick Mordin thinks it should be favourite too.

Damn it. I backed Dancing Rain. I had no idea Mordin had jinxed it for me!

One problem for Dancing Rain, quite aside from the fact that she has a huge amount to find on form, is that she is not actually bred to stay 12 furlongs. Her sister seemed to be best at 10 and she is by a miler out of a sprint sired 7 furlong bred mare.

I have backed her as a decent saver because of the stable confidence suggesting she's improved a lot. Occasionally horses do get trips they are not bred for but it does seem a bit far fetched to think Dancing Rain will need 12 furlongs to be seen at her very best.

The oaks is quite a good renewal this year I would say, with the 2 Guineas winners both having pretentions to stay, the Michael Stoute filly definitely having a good chance and Aiden's apparent first string a pretty impressive winner of the Cheshire Oaks.

I dissagree about her not staying the trip. In fact I think she will improve loads over 12f. Breeding aside, if you watch her races you will see she stays very well and travels extremely well which makes me think she could be a class horse. Her form is standing up well and on Friday she will be ridden prominently avoiding any possible trouble.(16 decs) I am hoping Fallon can ride as he did in her maiden at Newbury 2 runs back.

fallon on wonder of wonders

Think she is a definite stayer, i'm pretty sure also that she's had an identical prep this year to what Eswaarah had in 2005.

Did Eswarah win her final start before Oaks ?

I'm not sure, i was only 8 years of age in 2005 ffs

Just wondered how she has had an identical prep if she did not win last time out.

I cant remember Eswarah either, I was only 7 in 2005.laugh:]

^^^^^^ amateur

Only messing, think it was the same maiden they won and definitely same listed race, although she was beaten lto i think she's streets ahead of izzi top and distance to suit.

J P Murtagh to ride

Intersting booking. One of Haggas' go to Men when he is in the UK. Think they have a very decent LSP together.

BJ,y d c

how is dancing rain streets ahead of izzi top please?

Will be on friday with the extra distance to suit here more and also DR lost her chance early in the race lto by not settling under poor enough riding from EA and i think even a blind man could tell you which of the two fillies was the one to take out of the race at Newbury.

by Danehill Dancer (8.1)  out of Rain Flower by Indian Ridge (7.8) -  definitely doesn't look anything like 12 furlong breeding to me!

Rainflower was out of an Alleged mare though. She gets 10 furlongs okay and does run  like she might stay.

She needs to improve by around a stone (at the very least) on what she has done on the racecourse yet though; and though I think she is interesting, she very probably just isn't good enough, even for a place.

I can't disagree with you cot, i have a habit of reading too much into things like when did willie haggas last have an english oaks runner and i can't remember his last and i don't see him as a trainer who over enters his horses and the jockey booking must be significant, but as you say, she could easily finish well out of the places

The ground will probably be firm for the Oaks (I know the official going will be "good") so that might help the doubtful stayers to get home.

Just some bits from my analysis of the Oaks runners pedigrees.

Dancing Rain:
Dosage Index for 5 generations pedigree 2.28 (average for 1991 to 2010 1.48)
Past winners with a similar high number:
Fair Salinia 1978 2.48; Blue Wind 1981 2.00; Time Charter 1982 2.38; Unite 1987 2.25;
Balanchine 1994 2.36; Shahtoush 1998 2.23; Ouija Board 2004 2.67; Snow Fairy 2010 2.00.

I'm not a fan of AWD (average winning distance) of a sire's progeny.  I like to look at the most common winning distance.
Now that number is not published but I gathered numbers from a publication of 40k+ wins (it was a summary report with totals for each sire).

Dancing Rain:
You can see from the Racing Post website that her sire Danehill Dancer has these progeny stats:
5f-6f 2430 wins; 7f-9f 4186; 10f-11f 872; 12f-13f 432; 14f+ 151.  You would guess from that that most of the wins are at 7f.

I used my summary to give me numbers for the sires further back in Dancing Rain's pedigree to see if she got help from them to stay further.
Sire side:  sire Danehill Dancer probably 7f (see above);  sire's sire Danehill 8f: sire's sire's sire Danzig 7f.  Sire's dam sire Sharpen Up 8f.
Dam side: dam sire Indian Ridge 7f; dam's sire sire Ahonoora 6f; dam's dam sire Alleged 12f.

Sire side: a short runner probably not good for 12f.
Dam side: the only staying sire here is Alleged.
Of the six sires in her first three generations 1 x 6f; 3 x 7f; 2 x 8f; 1 x 12f

The other two sires on her bottom line (dam line) are Northern Dancer (4th gen) 10f; Sicambre (5th gen) has produced quality middle-distance winners.

I don't see a racing record for Dancing Rain's dam Rain Flower so no clue there on possible staying distance.
Rain Flower's dam Rose Of Jericho was the dam of Derby winner Dr Devious (who was by Ahonoora 6f).

Having said all that my bet on the Oaks is Beatrice Aurore, also sired by Danehill Dancer.  Her dam side sires give her a chance of staying.
Dancing Rain:  DS 7f; DSS 6f; DDS 12f
Beatrice Aurore: DS 12f; DSS 12f; DDS 12f.  DS Rainbow Quest; DSS Blushing Groom 12f; Mill Reef 12f.

The most common winning distances quoted above are at a point in time and may not cover all of a sire's career at stud.

i hope you are making the game pay kincsem, you certainly deserve to, all that research and detail must take time and patience, it certainly is another angle to weigh up when narrowing down the field, along with going and stable form. good luck with your selections. cheers.

kinskem

amazing diligence and a good read - thanks.

Having done all that work - do you think Dancing Rain will stay?

I think she might (maybe) but am about 55% that's all.

cryoftruth
I think Dancing Rain will stay on the course longer than the other runners.

The course is fast so having a staying pedigree might mean **** all.
The stayers might finish in mid-division.
Then people will say the stayers didn't stay.
The course might not be a stiff enough test today to slow down the non-stayers.

On pedigree Misty For Me; Dancing Rain look like the non-stayers.

Pros and Cons

Beatrice Aurore:
(-) Has won against lower grade opposition. Her sire Danehill Dancer was a sprinter and sires typically 7f horses.
(+) She is agile as she showed twice at Goodwood.  She has a turn of foot.  He damside pedigree has good staying sires: Rainbow Quest; Blushing Groom; Mill Reef.

Blaise Chorus:
(-) Has not won a pattern race (G1,G2,G3, listed).  Poor finishing kick imo.  Still a maiden.
(+) A staying pedigree.

Blue Bunting:
(-) Has only raced on straight courses (?).  imo won 1000 Guineas by outstaying others into headwind.  Epsom uphill, turns, camber might not suit.
(+) A staying pedigree.  A half-sister won over 2m2f.

Dancing Rain:
(-) a non-staying pedigree imo.  Similar level to Beatrice Aurore (both beat Highest 1 1/2l)
(+) Nick Mordin picks her.

Eirnin:
(-) Only a narrow maiden win.   Well beaten / never up with pace.
(+) Mostly raced on soft.  Firm ground might help.

Fork Handles:
(-) Damsire Ballacashtal was a sprinter iirc.  Her sire Doyen has yoet to produce a G1 winner.  Held by Wonder Of Wonders on form.
(+) Has raced in four group races so has experience.

Havant:
(-) Said to prefer soft and it isn't soft.
(+) A good 6th in the 1000 Guineas, and a good G3 winner.  More a 10f filly imo.

Izzi Top:
(-) Looks like a non-staying pedigree, sire and damsire both milers.
(+) Good enought to narrowly beat Dancing Rain, but beaten by Charleston Lady who is withdrawn.

Misty For Me;
(-) Storm Cat as her damsire says to me she will not stay.  Also Mr Prospector on her dam side not a staying influence.
(+) Easily the best form in the race with three G1 wins.

Siren's Song:
(-) Might / might not stay.  No evidence of a turn of foot.  Has only raced twice so lacks experience.
(+) Her only two runs were at 1m2f.

Why:
(-) Well beaten in 5 of 6 races - no impression (2); never a factor(1)
(+) Her dam won two G1s.

Wonder Of Wonders:
(-) "looked ill at ease on track" at Chester.  A big filly and may not like the downhill and camber of Epsom.
(+) won on 28th April and then six days later over 1m3 1/2f at Chester.  She has a wonderful pedigree well suited to 1m4f.  Her dam was 2nd in the Oaks.  She is a full sister to Derby winner Galileo.  She is "bred in the purple" and should be in the royal box with the Queen.
She wins on pedigree by a distance.  But will she win on the course?

Zain Al Boldan:
(-) Her sire Poliglote has not sire a G1 winner.  The pedigree is a little weak.
(+) She is unbeaten and won the trial at Lingfield by 6 lengths.

Beatrice Aurore; Wonder Of Wonders; Havant in that order would please me.

I decided to look at the Racing Post website to find horses sired by Danehill Dancer with Indian Ridge as the damsire to see what distances they ran over.


Horse____________________Runs (furlongs)
A Mind Of Her Own________6,6,8,7,6
Captain Dancer___________7,7,7,7,7,7,7,8,8,8,10,10,10
Dance To The Blues________5,5,5,5,6,6,5,5,6,5,6,5,5,5,6,6,5,5,6,6,6,6,6,,7,6
Dancing Rain_____________8,10,10
Danseuse Corse___________11
Furbeseta_________________7,7,7,10,8,8,7,8,8
Harvest Dancer____________7,7,8
Luna Danza_______________7,8,9,10
Medicine Path_____________7,7,8,8,10,11,9,8,8,8,8,
Ooh Aah Camara___________5,5,5,5,5,5,6,6,5,5,7,7,8,6,5,6,6,6,7,6,5,6,6,
Street Entertainer___________8,8,8,10,10,11,10,11,12,14,12,16,17,17,14 Hurdles

Props to winners.

Cryoftruth want to give some to Nick Mordin ?

Greta ride by Murtagh and the 2nd horse didn't seem to handle the track (or perhaps just wasn't putting it all in)

Please accept my apologies.  I'm eating a very large slice of humble pie.

tt once more pulls a belter of of the bag for clients

Oaks time 2:41:73.  Johnny Murtagh put them to sleep.  The Coronation Cup was 4.55 seconds faster.

Some fine displays of tactical nous from those jockeys in behind, Fallon excepted. Must have clocks in their heads

props

I've watched the race again on the Sporting Life website.

The commentator mentions Dancing Rain leading in the first few furlongs at a "dawdling pace".

The leading five for most of the way were Dancing Rain, Wonder Of Wonders, Blaise Chorus, Misty For Me, Izzy Top.  When they turned into the straight Johnny Murtagh sprinted for home.  He (1) got the jump on the field (2) had saved energy by the slow pace (3)  he was on one of the speediest pedigrees in the field (Misty For Me the other).  It was impossible for the mid-field horses to peg back the lead as the whole field sprinted.   The leading five into the straight finished 1,2,3,5,11.   Blaise Chorus finished out of the first fourin 11th with her staying pedigree (she couldn't sprint). 

Frankie Dettori actually got Blue Bunting into 3rd just before the line and then stopped riding allowing Izzy Top to snatch 3rd.

I'd oppose any of the first four if they run over 12f again.

You'd oppose Wonder of Wonders?

She's surely a 12f horse through and through.

In truth what was O'Brien doing not employing a pacemaker for her?

Good question Jair. Although it obviously looks simply as if he thought they would win it from a slower pace. He simply didn't count on one being better. There can be no other explanation. He had two potential pacemakers in there, whom he said had a right to run their own race. He got it wrong.

Anyway, well done to Johnny Murtagh. He's a guy i like a lot. He foresaw the lack of pace and gave a great dictorial ride. That was proper jockeyship. He done his homework.

Well done to Dancing Rain supporters. I know it was a slow pace, but over the years I have learned its not always easy to discount winning form, or dismiss it as a fluke. Dancing Rain was going away again at the finish. She was well ridden but was a worthy winner imo.

It was a brilliant ride by Murtagh and congratulations to all who backed Dancing Rain, but what on earth were the other jockeys (with the exception of Fallon on the runner-up) doing?  They went no pace and the winning time was about 4½ seconds slower than St Nicholas Abbey's winning time in the Coronation Cup.  I'm not normally critical of jockeys, but Frankie Dettori rode a shocker on Blue Bunting, allowing his mount to get shuffled back when he should have been hard on the heels of Wonder Of Wonders, he was still lengths behind Fallon's filly entering the straight and never managed to close the gap (he was four or five lengths behind the runner-up when he finally barged his way out of trouble and finished four lengths behind WOW at the line).  All in all, this was a farcical race (by English Classic standards).  The result gives no true indication of the merit of the beaten fillies and the form is likely to prove misleading.

I agree with COT that Dancing Rain was a worthy winner and may well confirm in due course that she is a very smart filly, but jockeyship had a lot to do with the result on this occasion.

BJ

Awful to watch. And I am surprised Dettori only got 10 days ban for losing 3rd on the line. Blue Bunting was favourite and it would have been very costly for punters, and he should have also got 10 days for barging Havant.

Rowley Mile, tremendous stuff, hope you made plenty. The LSP for Murtagh/Haggas builds!

Yes I thoiught she was "interesting" and saved on her as a result.

Her form looked inadequate. However when the stable have a top class horse, they tend to lump on, and she kept on shortening inexplicably to me, so I just joined in. I ended up taking 14/1 in doubles with the French Derby horses. Taking the price will cost me hundreds if Vadamar wins!

Go on COT, say thankyou to Mordin! 

Totally agree with what's been said about the jockeys today.  Watching it (as a WOW backer) I could not believe how slowly they were going and the O'Brien rags were at the back!  Talk about beating yourself.

I'd be surprised if the winner confirmed form in a truly run race but you have to respect her all the same.  Oaks winners tend to be decent amongst their peers however they win their races.

Form wise: we didn't learn a lot

Thanks Sint

i read Nick Mordin's article when he noted a system that pointed to the chances of Dancing Rain. This was interesting because it started with a system selection based on some very interesting theories. I began to think Dancing Rain was particularly interesting when the stable began to back her. although this is not part of Nick's system, I got caught out by the stable years ago when they had a real touch on Shaamit and he won the Derby first time out. I thought they were mad and that his price (16 or less from  memory) was stupidly short for what he had done. That was a lesson well learned.

So I would say to Nick Mordin and his disciples - very well done. I certainly won a bit more because of Mordin on the Oaks than I would have, although the doubles I am sitting on with her and Vadamar and her and Pour Moi will be really rewarding.

The one thing to Mordin, aside from "thank you" is:

why do you sometimes spoil your original thought and objectivity, buy overstating so dramatically your assessments. Its like the Carlton House stuff. Of course he has never run in a race that has had any pace in it, and he has been (now still is) bad value. But to imply he should be 12/1 and is a slow deformed type unlikely to act at Epsom, all dressed up in intemperate language likely to cause the naive to indulge in "biblical place laying" .

Still no-one's perfect even me.

Now if Fido wins the Derby, Nick's disciples will be demanding more blood and humble pie - not as good prospect at all!

jair1970

I shot off at the mouth there.
I'd oppose Dancing Rain, Izzi Top, Misty For me over 12f.  Wonder Of Wonders is a classy 12f filly designed for the race.

does anyone know if Fallon had the choic of WOW or Dancing Rain given he rode the winner to her maiden win at Newbury ..