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Dancing Rain Oaks

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Replies: 49
By:
jamesp
When: 03 Jun 11 19:31
It was a brilliant ride by Murtagh and congratulations to all who backed Dancing Rain, but what on earth were the other jockeys (with the exception of Fallon on the runner-up) doing?  They went no pace and the winning time was about 4½ seconds slower than St Nicholas Abbey's winning time in the Coronation Cup.  I'm not normally critical of jockeys, but Frankie Dettori rode a shocker on Blue Bunting, allowing his mount to get shuffled back when he should have been hard on the heels of Wonder Of Wonders, he was still lengths behind Fallon's filly entering the straight and never managed to close the gap (he was four or five lengths behind the runner-up when he finally barged his way out of trouble and finished four lengths behind WOW at the line).  All in all, this was a farcical race (by English Classic standards).  The result gives no true indication of the merit of the beaten fillies and the form is likely to prove misleading.
By:
jamesp
When: 03 Jun 11 19:32
I agree with COT that Dancing Rain was a worthy winner and may well confirm in due course that she is a very smart filly, but jockeyship had a lot to do with the result on this occasion.
By:
turnip turns
When: 03 Jun 11 19:40
BJLaugh
By:
sintonian
When: 03 Jun 11 19:40
Awful to watch. And I am surprised Dettori only got 10 days ban for losing 3rd on the line. Blue Bunting was favourite and it would have been very costly for punters, and he should have also got 10 days for barging Havant.

Rowley Mile, tremendous stuff, hope you made plenty. The LSP for Murtagh/Haggas builds! Cool
By:
cryoftruth
When: 03 Jun 11 19:49
Yes I thoiught she was "interesting" and saved on her as a result.

Her form looked inadequate. However when the stable have a top class horse, they tend to lump on, and she kept on shortening inexplicably to me, so I just joined in. I ended up taking 14/1 in doubles with the French Derby horses. Taking the price will cost me hundreds if Vadamar wins!
By:
jair1970
When: 03 Jun 11 21:06
Go on COT, say thankyou to Mordin!  Happy

Totally agree with what's been said about the jockeys today.  Watching it (as a WOW backer) I could not believe how slowly they were going and the O'Brien rags were at the back!  Talk about beating yourself.

I'd be surprised if the winner confirmed form in a truly run race but you have to respect her all the same.  Oaks winners tend to be decent amongst their peers however they win their races.

Form wise: we didn't learn a lot
By:
Rowley Mile
When: 03 Jun 11 21:57
Thanks Sint
By:
cryoftruth
When: 04 Jun 11 08:57
i read Nick Mordin's article when he noted a system that pointed to the chances of Dancing Rain. This was interesting because it started with a system selection based on some very interesting theories. I began to think Dancing Rain was particularly interesting when the stable began to back her. although this is not part of Nick's system, I got caught out by the stable years ago when they had a real touch on Shaamit and he won the Derby first time out. I thought they were mad and that his price (16 or less from  memory) was stupidly short for what he had done. That was a lesson well learned.

So I would say to Nick Mordin and his disciples - very well done. I certainly won a bit more because of Mordin on the Oaks than I would have, although the doubles I am sitting on with her and Vadamar and her and Pour Moi will be really rewarding.

The one thing to Mordin, aside from "thank you" is:

why do you sometimes spoil your original thought and objectivity, buy overstating so dramatically your assessments. Its like the Carlton House stuff. Of course he has never run in a race that has had any pace in it, and he has been (now still is) bad value. But to imply he should be 12/1 and is a slow deformed type unlikely to act at Epsom, all dressed up in intemperate language likely to cause the naive to indulge in "biblical place laying" .

Still no-one's perfect even me.

Now if Fido wins the Derby, Nick's disciples will be demanding more blood and humble pie - not as good prospect at all!Sad
By:
kincsem
When: 04 Jun 11 12:58
jair1970

I shot off at the mouth there.
I'd oppose Dancing Rain, Izzi Top, Misty For me over 12f.  Wonder Of Wonders is a classy 12f filly designed for the race.
By:
sintonian
When: 04 Jun 11 16:41
does anyone know if Fallon had the choic of WOW or Dancing Rain given he rode the winner to her maiden win at Newbury ..
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