Carlton House - Surely severe doubts about ability to stay 12 furlongs on pedigree

You tell em Eric

When I saw you had £40 Frankel the Derby I knew we were watching a serious punter with you Mayweather unafraid to have a large wedge on when an all time great comes along unlike the gang on here with there 2 quids. Enjoy the weather and money, get it, put plenty of cream on.

This is sad.

Carlton House won a farce of a trial in the Dante due in large part to his superior turn of foot. In a fast run race at Epsom I doubt he will get home especially if he takes a lot out of himself in the prelims/parade etc...I agree with the original poster.

Dante was over 5 secs slower for first 7f than Midday's race, so C House illustrated that he has the best turn of foot. He may simply be the best horse full stop, or a much greater emphasis on stamina in the Derby may put a different complexion on things.

straws at clutching

In a weak year you don't have to see out every yard of 12f - see Motivator as a prime example.

shocking won a melbourne cup for the sire.

that said think his future lies at a mile and a quarter.

when he won the first thing I thought was the DWC.

finishing kick off a slow pace, brave busting through horses, street cry....

To doubt Carlton House's chances of staying furlongs is as Sultan admits (to his credit) the doubts of someone who does not understand breeding.

Generally the current orthodoxy is that you need stamina on the dam's side. So like Sea The Stars, Sariska, and Midday, to name but 3 recent champions, its a perfect 12 furlong pedigree when you have a horse by a miler or in Sariska and Midday's cases a sprinter, out of a mare by a stayer.

Carlton House is bred to stay very well. Street Cry imparts 8 furlong stamina but the dam has both Mill Reef and Bustino in the pedigree, both major influences for stamina.

There are some you maybe doubt will get 12 furlongs but Carlton House would be a major shock if stamina was an issue.

Until they go 12 furlongs at a decent pace you never really know, but all the indications are that he'll stay. Connections as astute as Sir  Michael Stoute would not have decided the route of Dante then Derby half a year ago if he was a non-stayer.

It's hardly a 'perfect' 12f pedigree and if you work out the dosage you will find out why. Also, none of the sires of the last 10 winners Derby winners (and a lot more before that) had a stamina index of less than 8.6 regardless of what has been on the dam side, so of course there are stamina doubts in a race where Ballydoyle will make this a thorough test.
Sure there is stamina on the dam side but it's not a given looking at the overall balance of all the progeny she has produced, he could well produce his turn of foot and hang on but it's certainly not a 2/1 shot that he will and be able to repel late finishers like Recital or others who have a more suitable middle distance pedigree and less stamina doubts in their overall breeding profile.

COT mentioned Sea The Stars, Sariska and Midday.  It's not insignificant that two of those are fillies/mares - it's quite common for female progeny of dams who were effective over middle distances to inherit the stamina from the distaff side of the family, regardless of the sire.  Sariska and Midday were sired by, respectively, the speedy Pivotal and Oasis Dream, but clearly inherited their stamina from their dams, who won over distances up to 11-14f.  Cape Cross (the sire of Sea The Stars) is a bit of a freak - despite his breeding (by the speedy Green Desert out of Park Appeal) he has produced several top class 12f horses including not only Sea The Stars, but also Behkabad and Ouija Board.  (Perhaps Cape Cross' stamina influence comes from his grand-dam Balidaress, dam of the Ribblesdale and Irish Oaks winner Alydaress.) 

I'd be more willing to give the benefit of the doubt, as far as untested stamina is concerned, to a filly by a speed influence from a staying family than to a colt with similar breeding.  It's not an exact science and Carlton House may now go and prove the doubters wrong, but if he shortens significantly in the betting on the day of the race he will certainly be a 'lay' in my book.

I had assumed that the average winning distance stats on Racing Post site were from 3YO + races from Europe. Did not realise that they included US races.

the only other really decent horse out Carlton House's mare, Talented, was Friston Forest, who was by a miler. Friston Forest needed 2 miles and soft going to be seen at his best.

Street Cry would have a much higher stamina index if he was a European sire, as was stated above. Street Cry actually stayed 10 furlongs very well and may have got further as well - he is quite stoutly bred - by Machiavellian out of a good mare (and influence for stamina) Helen Street who was by brilliant derby winner Troy.

Of course its not an exact science and you do get odd results like stoutly bred sprinters and stayers with no reason to stay on pedigree. Red Rum got 40 furlongs and he was by a miler!

However on the whole horses will stay the trip they are bred to stay. Carlton House is certainly bred to stay 12 furlongs and actually would probably get the leger trip if the Queen wanted him to win that as well.

I have studied breeding for around 30 years. Its almost certain that staying the trip will not be a cause of Carlton House failing to stay. he might not be able to run as fast as some others in the race of course,  or might get bad luck in running. He might boil over before the start. All of these are straws that are more likely as being grasped successfully by those hoping to see the Queen's colt well stuffed than any lack of stamina.

i actually disagree that Cape Cross is a freak jamesp (and I tend to agree with you on most things too). He was a miler and imparts stamina as you would expect him to. Sea The Stars (this is an old argument) was very stoutly bred indeed on the dam's side. His dam won the Arc in a bog and had stamina in her pedigree going back  at l;east 3 generations. It would have been amazing to me if Sea The Stars had failed to get 12 furlongs, as I repeatedly stated when this sort of argument started prior to his derby romp. Similarly Ouija Board was out of a Welsh Pageant mare which had simply tons of stamina in her make up. Similarly Behkabad was out of a Kris S mare who had both Bustino and Mill Reef in her pedigree.

Like all or nearly all milers, Cape cross will get stayers if he is put to staying m,ares.

So if not Carlton House what's the Derby winner?
In all probability now Henry wont run Frankel - but then again he's not out of it - yet.
If Henry decides to pit his superstar in the Derby.......... some are saying now that Carlton House 'aint a stayer (or has the stamina for 12 f, does H C take a chance?)
Now in probability he wont run him but I reckon Henry may well be musing and wondering would Frankel take a chance.
I'd reckon if Henry runs him, he'll win - and I've him at 10s.
Henry might decide and think and 'well, what's in there to beat?' and let Frankel run.


Just a thought really......

Remember Jim Bolger a few years ago and New Approach?

sintonian

I backed him before the Dante and immediately after the Dante at 5/2, 5/2 is about the right price and 7/4 is not great value - I have laid him a bit at 2/1 to be honest.

I thinks it's valid talk tbh. He has a nice turn of foot and could see him being more suited to the 10f Group 1's than the Derby.

Somewhat late, I have just used the "block user" facility. What a blessed relief it is to lock out such irritating , borish contributors such as Mayweather and eric-morris. It's like turning-off a rubbish band in the background that keeps getting in the way of a good conversation so that you can't concentrate.

Sandown
I blocked the same two "experts" and the quality of the posts has shot up.

Mayweather and eric_morris are one and the same - nap !