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Sire's average winnning distance of progeny 8 furlongs. Sire's progeny record over 12-13 furlongs 2 wins from 39 attempts for 5.1%. Most of sire's progeny compete over 7-9 furlongs(396 runners). Dam is by Bustino who could impart stamina but of the 3 offspring who have ran enough times for a distance preference to become apparant has produced 1 sprinter 1 miler and 1 stayer. I am not a breeding expert but you do not need to be one to see Carlton House is far from sure to stay 12 furlongs.
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As I've said, I think Carlton House is poor value but I'd be surprised if he fails due to lack of stamina. Stoute appeared to have no concerns debuting him over a mile on soft ground and he then went on to clock a very good time in the same conditions next time out.
I agree with Mayweather you lot will be clinging on to the hope Carlton House's pecker is exceptionally long leading to a chance of him tripping over it as him and Frankel go clear of O'Brien's dart machine up the straight next.
Mayweather is a poster I have a lot of time for on here you should all listen to him he knows more than you all put together and it is good he keeps the swollen headed guessers in their place on here.
Mayweather is a poster I have a lot of time for on here you should all listen to him he knows more than you all put together and it is good he keeps the swollen headed guessers in their place on here.
When I saw you had £40 Frankel the Derby I knew we were watching a serious punter with you Mayweather unafraid to have a large wedge on when an all time great comes along unlike the gang on here with there 2 quids. Enjoy the weather and money, get it, put plenty of cream on.
The Melbourne Cup winner Shocking is the only genuinely top class horse by Street Cry who stayed further than 10f. There must be a slight doubt about Carlton House getting a strongly run 12f in Group 1 company.
Carlton House won a farce of a trial in the Dante due in large part to his superior turn of foot. In a fast run race at Epsom I doubt he will get home especially if he takes a lot out of himself in the prelims/parade etc...I agree with the original poster.
Probably worth noting also that the win of Shocking in the Melbourne Cup came off fairly slow tempo with a very light weight and it was hardly a vintage running of the race.
Since that win his best form has come over 10f.
So really Street Cry is yet to produce a real stayer and I'm guessing that Coolmore are going to ensure that whatever wins the Derby will have to show plenty of stamina.
Since that win his best form has come over 10f.
So really Street Cry is yet to produce a real stayer and I'm guessing that Coolmore are going to ensure that whatever wins the Derby will have to show plenty of stamina.
Dante was over 5 secs slower for first 7f than Midday's race, so C House illustrated that he has the best turn of foot. He may simply be the best horse full stop, or a much greater emphasis on stamina in the Derby may put a different complexion on things.
The more I look at the pedigree the less convinced I become there are stamina issues but obviously it's what the Coolmore tag-team is going to work on.
Four pronged scatter-gun approach imo - Recital, Seville, Treasure Beach and Pour Moi (2 Galileos, 2 Montjeus).
Four pronged scatter-gun approach imo - Recital, Seville, Treasure Beach and Pour Moi (2 Galileos, 2 Montjeus).
How can one stable be so useless with so many darts each year for so many years?
In a weak year you don't have to see out every yard of 12f - see Motivator as a prime example.
shocking won a melbourne cup for the sire.
that said think his future lies at a mile and a quarter.
when he won the first thing I thought was the DWC.
finishing kick off a slow pace, brave busting through horses, street cry....
that said think his future lies at a mile and a quarter.
when he won the first thing I thought was the DWC.
finishing kick off a slow pace, brave busting through horses, street cry....
To doubt Carlton House's chances of staying furlongs is as Sultan admits (to his credit) the doubts of someone who does not understand breeding.
Generally the current orthodoxy is that you need stamina on the dam's side. So like Sea The Stars, Sariska, and Midday, to name but 3 recent champions, its a perfect 12 furlong pedigree when you have a horse by a miler or in Sariska and Midday's cases a sprinter, out of a mare by a stayer.
Carlton House is bred to stay very well. Street Cry imparts 8 furlong stamina but the dam has both Mill Reef and Bustino in the pedigree, both major influences for stamina.
There are some you maybe doubt will get 12 furlongs but Carlton House would be a major shock if stamina was an issue.
Until they go 12 furlongs at a decent pace you never really know, but all the indications are that he'll stay. Connections as astute as Sir Michael Stoute would not have decided the route of Dante then Derby half a year ago if he was a non-stayer.
Generally the current orthodoxy is that you need stamina on the dam's side. So like Sea The Stars, Sariska, and Midday, to name but 3 recent champions, its a perfect 12 furlong pedigree when you have a horse by a miler or in Sariska and Midday's cases a sprinter, out of a mare by a stayer.
Carlton House is bred to stay very well. Street Cry imparts 8 furlong stamina but the dam has both Mill Reef and Bustino in the pedigree, both major influences for stamina.
There are some you maybe doubt will get 12 furlongs but Carlton House would be a major shock if stamina was an issue.
Until they go 12 furlongs at a decent pace you never really know, but all the indications are that he'll stay. Connections as astute as Sir Michael Stoute would not have decided the route of Dante then Derby half a year ago if he was a non-stayer.
Question to cryoftruth
If dam impart so much stamina how do you explain that the dams other 2 offspring produced by mating with other sires whose average winning distance was around 8 furlongs produced a sprinter and a miler.
If dam impart so much stamina how do you explain that the dams other 2 offspring produced by mating with other sires whose average winning distance was around 8 furlongs produced a sprinter and a miler.
It's hardly a 'perfect' 12f pedigree and if you work out the dosage you will find out why. Also, none of the sires of the last 10 winners Derby winners (and a lot more before that) had a stamina index of less than 8.6 regardless of what has been on the dam side, so of course there are stamina doubts in a race where Ballydoyle will make this a thorough test.
Sure there is stamina on the dam side but it's not a given looking at the overall balance of all the progeny she has produced, he could well produce his turn of foot and hang on but it's certainly not a 2/1 shot that he will and be able to repel late finishers like Recital or others who have a more suitable middle distance pedigree and less stamina doubts in their overall breeding profile.
Sure there is stamina on the dam side but it's not a given looking at the overall balance of all the progeny she has produced, he could well produce his turn of foot and hang on but it's certainly not a 2/1 shot that he will and be able to repel late finishers like Recital or others who have a more suitable middle distance pedigree and less stamina doubts in their overall breeding profile.
Three slow wins for Carlton House means his stamina has not been tested.
COT mentioned Sea The Stars, Sariska and Midday. It's not insignificant that two of those are fillies/mares - it's quite common for female progeny of dams who were effective over middle distances to inherit the stamina from the distaff side of the family, regardless of the sire. Sariska and Midday were sired by, respectively, the speedy Pivotal and Oasis Dream, but clearly inherited their stamina from their dams, who won over distances up to 11-14f. Cape Cross (the sire of Sea The Stars) is a bit of a freak - despite his breeding (by the speedy Green Desert out of Park Appeal) he has produced several top class 12f horses including not only Sea The Stars, but also Behkabad and Ouija Board. (Perhaps Cape Cross' stamina influence comes from his grand-dam Balidaress, dam of the Ribblesdale and Irish Oaks winner Alydaress.)
I'd be more willing to give the benefit of the doubt, as far as untested stamina is concerned, to a filly by a speed influence from a staying family than to a colt with similar breeding. It's not an exact science and Carlton House may now go and prove the doubters wrong, but if he shortens significantly in the betting on the day of the race he will certainly be a 'lay' in my book.
I'd be more willing to give the benefit of the doubt, as far as untested stamina is concerned, to a filly by a speed influence from a staying family than to a colt with similar breeding. It's not an exact science and Carlton House may now go and prove the doubters wrong, but if he shortens significantly in the betting on the day of the race he will certainly be a 'lay' in my book.
My 2 cents Street Cry has got his best books in Kentucky so far with his best books in Oz only hitting the track now.
I dont think any sire on the US list is going to have outstanding middle distance stats like European based sires because US racing is based around speed with majority going to 10f max, the Belmont is basically their Leger at only 12f. Taking graded races US v Europe as an example, European graded races average is longer than the US by a good way.
AP Indy a Belmont winner sired himself by a Belmont winner his offspring have an average max distance of 8.72f and an average race distance of 8.19f. Street Cry has an average max of 7.86f and an average race distance[/i] of 7.95f. From memory Galileos average race distance is high 9's
So basically what Im saying is I wouldnt get hung up translating sire stats for US based sires because looking at them you would think no horse stays but the races aint there.
BTW those stats you posted Sultan are from the RP tbh I find that they can be a bit incorrect when it comes to sires based outside of the UK and Eire
I dont think any sire on the US list is going to have outstanding middle distance stats like European based sires because US racing is based around speed with majority going to 10f max, the Belmont is basically their Leger at only 12f. Taking graded races US v Europe as an example, European graded races average is longer than the US by a good way.
AP Indy a Belmont winner sired himself by a Belmont winner his offspring have an average max distance of 8.72f and an average race distance of 8.19f. Street Cry has an average max of 7.86f and an average race distance[/i] of 7.95f. From memory Galileos average race distance is high 9's
So basically what Im saying is I wouldnt get hung up translating sire stats for US based sires because looking at them you would think no horse stays but the races aint there.
BTW those stats you posted Sultan are from the RP tbh I find that they can be a bit incorrect when it comes to sires based outside of the UK and Eire
I had assumed that the average winning distance stats on Racing Post site were from 3YO + races from Europe. Did not realise that they included US races.
Everyone thought Ballydoyle would ensure a strong pace for Fame & Glory when he took on Sea The Stars but they didn't. A strong pace is not a given.
the only other really decent horse out Carlton House's mare, Talented, was Friston Forest, who was by a miler. Friston Forest needed 2 miles and soft going to be seen at his best.
Street Cry would have a much higher stamina index if he was a European sire, as was stated above. Street Cry actually stayed 10 furlongs very well and may have got further as well - he is quite stoutly bred - by Machiavellian out of a good mare (and influence for stamina) Helen Street who was by brilliant derby winner Troy.
Of course its not an exact science and you do get odd results like stoutly bred sprinters and stayers with no reason to stay on pedigree. Red Rum got 40 furlongs and he was by a miler!
However on the whole horses will stay the trip they are bred to stay. Carlton House is certainly bred to stay 12 furlongs and actually would probably get the leger trip if the Queen wanted him to win that as well.
I have studied breeding for around 30 years. Its almost certain that staying the trip will not be a cause of Carlton House failing to stay. he might not be able to run as fast as some others in the race of course, or might get bad luck in running. He might boil over before the start. All of these are straws that are more likely as being grasped successfully by those hoping to see the Queen's colt well stuffed than any lack of stamina.
i actually disagree that Cape Cross is a freak jamesp (and I tend to agree with you on most things too). He was a miler and imparts stamina as you would expect him to. Sea The Stars (this is an old argument) was very stoutly bred indeed on the dam's side. His dam won the Arc in a bog and had stamina in her pedigree going back at l;east 3 generations. It would have been amazing to me if Sea The Stars had failed to get 12 furlongs, as I repeatedly stated when this sort of argument started prior to his derby romp. Similarly Ouija Board was out of a Welsh Pageant mare which had simply tons of stamina in her make up. Similarly Behkabad was out of a Kris S mare who had both Bustino and Mill Reef in her pedigree.
Like all or nearly all milers, Cape cross will get stayers if he is put to staying m,ares.
Street Cry would have a much higher stamina index if he was a European sire, as was stated above. Street Cry actually stayed 10 furlongs very well and may have got further as well - he is quite stoutly bred - by Machiavellian out of a good mare (and influence for stamina) Helen Street who was by brilliant derby winner Troy.
Of course its not an exact science and you do get odd results like stoutly bred sprinters and stayers with no reason to stay on pedigree. Red Rum got 40 furlongs and he was by a miler!
However on the whole horses will stay the trip they are bred to stay. Carlton House is certainly bred to stay 12 furlongs and actually would probably get the leger trip if the Queen wanted him to win that as well.
I have studied breeding for around 30 years. Its almost certain that staying the trip will not be a cause of Carlton House failing to stay. he might not be able to run as fast as some others in the race of course, or might get bad luck in running. He might boil over before the start. All of these are straws that are more likely as being grasped successfully by those hoping to see the Queen's colt well stuffed than any lack of stamina.
i actually disagree that Cape Cross is a freak jamesp (and I tend to agree with you on most things too). He was a miler and imparts stamina as you would expect him to. Sea The Stars (this is an old argument) was very stoutly bred indeed on the dam's side. His dam won the Arc in a bog and had stamina in her pedigree going back at l;east 3 generations. It would have been amazing to me if Sea The Stars had failed to get 12 furlongs, as I repeatedly stated when this sort of argument started prior to his derby romp. Similarly Ouija Board was out of a Welsh Pageant mare which had simply tons of stamina in her make up. Similarly Behkabad was out of a Kris S mare who had both Bustino and Mill Reef in her pedigree.
Like all or nearly all milers, Cape cross will get stayers if he is put to staying m,ares.
so you have backed Carlton House at the current 7/4 then COT ?
So if not Carlton House what's the Derby winner?
In all probability now Henry wont run Frankel - but then again he's not out of it - yet.
If Henry decides to pit his superstar in the Derby.......... some are saying now that Carlton House 'aint a stayer (or has the stamina for 12 f, does H C take a chance?)
Now in probability he wont run him but I reckon Henry may well be musing and wondering would Frankel take a chance.
I'd reckon if Henry runs him, he'll win - and I've him at 10s.
Henry might decide and think and 'well, what's in there to beat?' and let Frankel run.
Just a thought really......
Remember Jim Bolger a few years ago and New Approach?
In all probability now Henry wont run Frankel - but then again he's not out of it - yet.
If Henry decides to pit his superstar in the Derby.......... some are saying now that Carlton House 'aint a stayer (or has the stamina for 12 f, does H C take a chance?)
Now in probability he wont run him but I reckon Henry may well be musing and wondering would Frankel take a chance.
I'd reckon if Henry runs him, he'll win - and I've him at 10s.
Henry might decide and think and 'well, what's in there to beat?' and let Frankel run.
Just a thought really......
Remember Jim Bolger a few years ago and New Approach?
Everyone thought Ballydoyle would ensure a strong pace for Fame & Glory when he took on Sea The Stars but they didn't. A strong pace is not a given.
Sint, did they not mess that up by trying to win it with Rip Van Winkle?
Obviously, no tactics were gonna beat STS but still they ballsed them up.
Sint, did they not mess that up by trying to win it with Rip Van Winkle?
Obviously, no tactics were gonna beat STS but still they ballsed them up.
sintonian
I backed him before the Dante and immediately after the Dante at 5/2, 5/2 is about the right price and 7/4 is not great value - I have laid him a bit at 2/1 to be honest.
I backed him before the Dante and immediately after the Dante at 5/2, 5/2 is about the right price and 7/4 is not great value - I have laid him a bit at 2/1 to be honest.
"Both his parents were 10-furlong horses, so it wouldn't surprise me if he was just as happy over a mile and a quarter as he will be over further."
Get your excuses in early, John Warren?
Get your excuses in early, John Warren?
I thinks it's valid talk tbh. He has a nice turn of foot and could see him being more suited to the 10f Group 1's than the Derby.
Carlton House stays all day long so be quiet Sintonian you muppet.
This is exactly why you people lose! You cannot judge a race horse like I can. I am different class to you muppets.
This is exactly why you people lose! You cannot judge a race horse like I can. I am different class to you muppets.
Somewhat late, I have just used the "block user" facility. What a blessed relief it is to lock out such irritating , borish contributors such as Mayweather and eric-morris. It's like turning-off a rubbish band in the background that keeps getting in the way of a good conversation so that you can't concentrate.
Sandown - I am also glad you used the block facility. Because I don't want to listen to your garbage.
When the black bin men come around every two weeks they look for you too you know.
You wally lol
When the black bin men come around every two weeks they look for you too you know.
You wally lol
Sandown
I blocked the same two "experts" and the quality of the posts has shot up.
I blocked the same two "experts" and the quality of the posts has shot up.
kincsem
There have been many irritating cretins over the years but I must say these two, especially Mayweather,top the lot. As I said, a blessed relief to be shot of their inane comments.
There have been many irritating cretins over the years but I must say these two, especially Mayweather,top the lot. As I said, a blessed relief to be shot of their inane comments.
Mayweather and eric_morris are one and the same - nap !
of course.
for what it's worth (and admittedly my opinion isn't a patch on the immensely modest gayweather's
) I don't think carlton house will have any problem staying a mile and half. he could end up being a specialist 10 furlong horse, but I don't think so, if you look at his newbury maiden win for example he doesn't exactly do them for speed, just grinds the opposition more and more into the ground with relentless galloping and extra stamina.
for what it's worth (and admittedly my opinion isn't a patch on the immensely modest gayweather's
) I don't think carlton house will have any problem staying a mile and half. he could end up being a specialist 10 furlong horse, but I don't think so, if you look at his newbury maiden win for example he doesn't exactly do them for speed, just grinds the opposition more and more into the ground with relentless galloping and extra stamina.
I think he'll stay ok. I tipped him up for the Dante but honestly think his price in the Derby is a joke.
As far as middle distance races go nothing has shone so far. The Dante looked a suspiciously ordinary affair this year and the Derby is a lot more open that what the betting indicates.
I do like Native Khan but in all honesty I reckon it's just about certain the winner will come from a horse showing sudden improvement and probably in double figures in the betting.
As far as middle distance races go nothing has shone so far. The Dante looked a suspiciously ordinary affair this year and the Derby is a lot more open that what the betting indicates.
I do like Native Khan but in all honesty I reckon it's just about certain the winner will come from a horse showing sudden improvement and probably in double figures in the betting.
Ocean War is decent but not a Group 1 horse. He could be 3rd or 4th but he won't challenge Carlton House.
Regarding the breeding issue, last years' Derby was significant in that Workforce was the first derby winner ever to have a sire coming from the Mr Prospector line. You used to be able to draw a line through any Derby runner with Mr Prospector in the top half but he changed all that. However I'm working on the theory that Workforce's sire King's Best is an exception (out of Allegretta who is German-bred - ie. ultra stamina laden influences). Street Cry is nothing like so stoutly-bred so I'm opposing Carlton House. With trepidation. One of the reasons I think some pedigree students are looking at Ocean War is because his sire is from the traditional Derby-friendly Shirley Heights line. He's a decent horse but is he good enough? Apparently he's surprised Zarooni. I think it was John Oxx who once said that if a horse was 100% guaranteed to get the trip then they were too slow. I like Recital 'cos he's quick and I'm a Mordin man at heart! Nathaniel looks a nice type physically too and he should enjoy a strongly run 12f.
chico a really interesting post.
I think John Oxx was right and I would translate his view as follows.
"A horse that is by a 12 furlong horse out of a mare that was bred to stay 12 furlongs very well may have insufficient speed to win a Derby". So let's have a look!
2010 Workforce by a miler out of a 12 furlong bred mare; clearly not too slow
2009 Sea The Stars see comments about Workforce
2008 New Approach by Galileo out of mare by Ahonoora ( a sprinter) so again not too slow
2007 Authorized by Miontjeu out of a very stoutly bred mare - should have been too slow but wasn't!!
2006 Sir Percy by a miler out of staying mare - no too slow
2005 Motivator (IRE) by Monjeu out of a miler - not to slow
2004 North Light (IRE) by Danelhill (miler) out of staying mare - not too slow
2003 Kris Kin (USA) by Kris S out of s staying mare - too slow
2002 High Chaparral (IRE) sadly too slow again
2001 Galileo dam was by a miler (Miswaki) not too slow.
2000 Sinndar by Grand Lodge (miler) out of staying mare - not too slow
1999 Oath by Fairy King (stamina index 7 furlongs) out of staying mare - not too slow
1998 High Rise by High Estate (stamina index 9 furlongs) out of staying mare - not too slow
1997 Benny the Dip by Silver Hawk (stamina) out of Ack Ack mare (miler) not too slow
1996 Shaamit by Mtoto out of a mare by Habitat (sprinter) not too slow
1995 Lammtarra by Nijinsky out of a Blushing Groom mare - too slow!
1994 Erhaab by Choefs Crown out of a Riverman mare not to slow (how did he stay?)
1993 Commander in Chief by Dancing Brave out of a mare by Roberto maybe just too slow
1992 Dr Devious by a sprinter not too slow
So in 20 years there have been 15 horses with a sprinter or miler in the sire, dam or dam's sire; and 5 with pretty much wall to wall 12 furlong blood in the pedigree.
Of the 5 Authorized was the only really good Derby winner, Commander in Chief (being by Dancing Brave is a dubious case as although he was a 12 furlong star he was a freak able to win group 1 races at a mile), Kris Kin is a dubious one too as his USA sire Kris S may be less of stamina influence than I think, Lammtara was pretty slow and may not have been a very good Derby winner, and High Chaperal outstayed Hawkwing in softish ground.
I am not a fan of statistics but the quick look back at the last 20 years Derby winners seems to generally justify the very shrewd John Oxx's view that if a horse is sure to stay he may be too slow to win a Derby.
Looking at this year's field:
Carlton House is not too slow being by a miler
Recital is "too slow" on the above scale - he would be the stoutest bred Derby winner in 21 years if he does win.
Seville is nearly as stoutly bred as Recital and too slow
Pour Moi is too slow also (blast it - I backed him!)
Native Khan is perfect not too slow but by Azamour (10 furlongs) out of a 12 furlong mare
Ocean War is not too slow but out of a Royal Academy mare and related to sprinters there is a real chance he will struggle to get 12 furlongs imo
frankel is not too slow and is bred to stay okay but this is somewhat academic as he seems destined not to run.
So there you are. Carlton House seems to have the ideal balance of speed and stamina, the sort of breeding that gives just a bit of "he won't stay" encouragement to those who missed the juicy prices.
Native Khan is next best .
I think John Oxx was right and I would translate his view as follows.
"A horse that is by a 12 furlong horse out of a mare that was bred to stay 12 furlongs very well may have insufficient speed to win a Derby". So let's have a look!
2010 Workforce by a miler out of a 12 furlong bred mare; clearly not too slow
2009 Sea The Stars see comments about Workforce
2008 New Approach by Galileo out of mare by Ahonoora ( a sprinter) so again not too slow
2007 Authorized by Miontjeu out of a very stoutly bred mare - should have been too slow but wasn't!!
2006 Sir Percy by a miler out of staying mare - no too slow
2005 Motivator (IRE) by Monjeu out of a miler - not to slow
2004 North Light (IRE) by Danelhill (miler) out of staying mare - not too slow
2003 Kris Kin (USA) by Kris S out of s staying mare - too slow
2002 High Chaparral (IRE) sadly too slow again
2001 Galileo dam was by a miler (Miswaki) not too slow.
2000 Sinndar by Grand Lodge (miler) out of staying mare - not too slow
1999 Oath by Fairy King (stamina index 7 furlongs) out of staying mare - not too slow
1998 High Rise by High Estate (stamina index 9 furlongs) out of staying mare - not too slow
1997 Benny the Dip by Silver Hawk (stamina) out of Ack Ack mare (miler) not too slow
1996 Shaamit by Mtoto out of a mare by Habitat (sprinter) not too slow
1995 Lammtarra by Nijinsky out of a Blushing Groom mare - too slow!
1994 Erhaab by Choefs Crown out of a Riverman mare not to slow (how did he stay?)
1993 Commander in Chief by Dancing Brave out of a mare by Roberto maybe just too slow
1992 Dr Devious by a sprinter not too slow
So in 20 years there have been 15 horses with a sprinter or miler in the sire, dam or dam's sire; and 5 with pretty much wall to wall 12 furlong blood in the pedigree.
Of the 5 Authorized was the only really good Derby winner, Commander in Chief (being by Dancing Brave is a dubious case as although he was a 12 furlong star he was a freak able to win group 1 races at a mile), Kris Kin is a dubious one too as his USA sire Kris S may be less of stamina influence than I think, Lammtara was pretty slow and may not have been a very good Derby winner, and High Chaperal outstayed Hawkwing in softish ground.
I am not a fan of statistics but the quick look back at the last 20 years Derby winners seems to generally justify the very shrewd John Oxx's view that if a horse is sure to stay he may be too slow to win a Derby.
Looking at this year's field:
Carlton House is not too slow being by a miler
Recital is "too slow" on the above scale - he would be the stoutest bred Derby winner in 21 years if he does win.
Seville is nearly as stoutly bred as Recital and too slow
Pour Moi is too slow also (blast it - I backed him!)
Native Khan is perfect not too slow but by Azamour (10 furlongs) out of a 12 furlong mare
Ocean War is not too slow but out of a Royal Academy mare and related to sprinters there is a real chance he will struggle to get 12 furlongs imo
frankel is not too slow and is bred to stay okay but this is somewhat academic as he seems destined not to run.
So there you are. Carlton House seems to have the ideal balance of speed and stamina, the sort of breeding that gives just a bit of "he won't stay" encouragement to those who missed the juicy prices.
Native Khan is next best .
you dont think high chaparral was a good derby winner?
He was okay I think from memory - maybe he never beat a 130 rating, or if he did it wasn't by much. I sort of have him down as a staying sort without real brilliance. Hardy useless though and better than Sir Percy for sure. Just not a very good Derby winner.
Lammtarra not a good Derby winner and was too slow hence why he broke the track record which lasted until up last year and subsequently won a King George and Arc...please.
Harsh on High Chapparal.
Only defeated in 2 Arcs after his maiden
Derby, Irish Derby, 2 Breeders Cups and a fantastic win in the Irish Champion against a good field; hardly a the hallmark of a 'staying sort'. Consistent (seasonal debut apart, 7 RPRs of 124+ in a row), tough and versatile.
Take that back!
Only defeated in 2 Arcs after his maiden
Derby, Irish Derby, 2 Breeders Cups and a fantastic win in the Irish Champion against a good field; hardly a the hallmark of a 'staying sort'. Consistent (seasonal debut apart, 7 RPRs of 124+ in a row), tough and versatile.
Take that back!
Christ almighty High Chaparral was a class horse.Only better Derby winner since been Sea the Stars.
Only two defeats after maiden came in the Arc which were attributed to a slight shoulder problem which hindered the horse going right handed if I recall correctly. An outstanding middle distance horse IMHO.
Agreed John - Anytime the horse put his head in front in the final 2F he was never passed
No offence but the problem here is that cryoftruth's pedigree analysis is too simplistic, chiefly cos in some instances the stamina of the dam is judged solely by the dam sire. Obviously there is always 2 sides to every horse's pedigree.
'Recital is "too slow" on the above scale - he would be the stoutest bred Derby winner in 21 years if he does win.'....looking at his siblings, notably his similarly free-going brother Corres Caminos and the classy miler Racinger (by Spectrum), i'd have to doubt whether he'll stay 12f let alone be too slow for it (i'd quite happily go 16s for the Leger if anyone's interested!)
'Recital is "too slow" on the above scale - he would be the stoutest bred Derby winner in 21 years if he does win.'....looking at his siblings, notably his similarly free-going brother Corres Caminos and the classy miler Racinger (by Spectrum), i'd have to doubt whether he'll stay 12f let alone be too slow for it (i'd quite happily go 16s for the Leger if anyone's interested!)
I won't knock cryoftruth's post as there is truth in it. You do need a bit of zip in a pedigree. An important quality in the Derby is having the pace to get a good position early in the race.
High Chaparral was a Jeykll and Hyde betting horse for me: I had him in an Oaks/Derby double with Kazzia, and the Derby trifecta, but he beat Falbrav (my bet) twice luckily imo (Irish Champion and Breeders Cup). High Chaparral imo needed the slow Derby ground.
Physically Carlton House in the Dante looked a Derby horse, Seville looked a little burly imo, a bit like Yeats.
High Chaparral was a Jeykll and Hyde betting horse for me: I had him in an Oaks/Derby double with Kazzia, and the Derby trifecta, but he beat Falbrav (my bet) twice luckily imo (Irish Champion and Breeders Cup). High Chaparral imo needed the slow Derby ground.
Physically Carlton House in the Dante looked a Derby horse, Seville looked a little burly imo, a bit like Yeats.
Good breakdown there cryoftruth, although I have to weigh in with a few defending Lammtarra and High Chaparral, both top horses that I backed in the Derby. Not that there was any pedigree analysis with Lammtarra I was 11 and just picked it out of the paper. I generally look one generation back with sires so would look at Benny The Dip and Kris Kin together as from the 'Roberto' line which is a fantastic line for classic horses year after year. Didn't realise how much stamina there was in Recital's pedigree till you pointed that out so cheers for that although he showed so much ability over 10f in the Derrinstown that if he runs to his pedigree and improves for the trip he's a monster bet at 8 or 9/1 at this stage by my reckoning. Also interesting how many Derby winner's dams have French or German relatives and Recital fits the bill there. I just hope he's not too green to do himself justice.
Good breakdown there cryoftruth, although I have to weigh in with a few defending Lammtarra and High Chaparral, both top horses that I backed in the Derby. Not that there was any pedigree analysis with Lammtarra I was 11 and just picked it out of the paper. I generally look one generation back with sires so would look at Benny The Dip and Kris Kin together as from the 'Roberto' line which is a fantastic line for classic horses year after year. Didn't realise how much stamina there was in Recital's pedigree till you pointed that out so cheers for that although he showed so much ability over 10f in the Derrinstown that if he runs to his pedigree and improves for the trip he's a monster bet at 8 or 9/1 at this stage by my reckoning. Also interesting how many Derby winner's dams have French or German relatives and Recital fits the bill there. I just hope he's not too green to do himself justice.
eric_morris Joined: 27 Jun 10
Replies: 3131 13 May 11 12:13
weather and may, get it
PMSL
Replies: 3131 13 May 11 12:13
weather and may, get it
PMSL
At Newbury as 2yo i was impressed with the way Carlton House demolished his rivals by a long looking 9l on soft ground, winning his race along way out. At York the race was not run to suit him or World domination in fact to my eye Seville had the run of the race. The way he quickened through the gap when it appeared and then quickened again when Seville came back at him only bodes well for the future. On pedigree nothing is crtain but we must remember Nashwan whos dam was out of a Bustino mare and his sire was the miler Blushing groom who failed to stay the Derby trip finishing 3rd Nashwan won the derby. Blushing grooms sire was Red God a speed influence as is Street Cry Machavellian. Blushing grooms dam was out of the exceptional stamina sire Wild Risk where as Street Cry dam is out of Troy derby winnerby 7l. Street Cry dam Helen Street won the Irish Oaks and further back inthe dams line you will find a Park Hill Stakes winner. Talented the dam of Carlton House won over a mile and a quarter and the best she did over a mmile and a half was to finish 3rd beaten a length and a half. The 3rd dam came 3rd in the Oaks and her 6th dam Singing Grass produced Never Say Die who won the Derby. Will history repeat itself, I believe it wll.
At Newbury as 2yo i was impressed with the way Carlton House demolished his rivals by a long looking 9l on soft ground, winning his race along way out. At York the race was not run to suit him or World domination in fact to my eye Seville had the run of the race. The way he quickened through the gap when it appeared and then quickened again when Seville came back at him only bodes well for the future. On pedigree nothing is crtain but we must remember Nashwan whos dam was out of a Bustino mare and his sire was the miler Blushing groom who failed to stay the Derby trip finishing 3rd Nashwan won the derby. Blushing grooms sire was Red God a speed influence as is Street Cry Machavellian. Blushing grooms dam was out of the exceptional stamina sire Wild Risk where as Street Cry dam is out of Troy derby winnerby 7l. Street Cry dam Helen Street won the Irish Oaks and further back inthe dams line you will find a Park Hill Stakes winner. Talented the dam of Carlton House won over a mile and a quarter and the best she did over a mmile and a half was to finish 3rd beaten a length and a half. The 3rd dam came 3rd in the Oaks and her 6th dam Singing Grass produced Never Say Die who won the Derby. Will history repeat itself, I believe it wll.
I never said High Chaparral was a poor Derby winner just not in the "very good" class. Having done some research he ran a Racing Post rating of over 130 once (130 exactly in the Derby), so I think he was a top class consistent horse but not a "very good" Derby winner; but its how you classify these things.
In respect to Lammtara, he only ran 4 times I think and never ran above 129. He was a bit lucky to beat Pentire in the King George I seem to remember. Of course he was game and tough and obviously was loaded with stamina, but he was certainly not as good even as High Chaparral. He would have made a cracking Cup horse at 4 though with all that stamina in his pedigree!
Duncan Idaho; the analysis is simplistic. If the 3 immediate relatives in a Derby winner's pedigree were 12 furlong pedigrees or stamina influences then I called them or classified them as "too slow". A bit hypocritical as its the sort of half baked theory the loony Mordin tends to try out with all has data bases.
What I showed is that in the last 20 years, the Derby winners with at least one of the three primary ancestors having 8 furlong pedigrees or less won 15 of the last 20 Derbies.
I am not saying (as the tossspot Mordin seems to do too often) anything dogmatic about what that will mean for the next 20 Derbies, but my guess is that the speed is necessary and that there was more than a grain of truth in the John Oxx claim that someone referred to earlier and started me off.
In respect to Recital, his pedigree is by Montjeu, stamina index 11.6, out of a mare by Kendor (stamina index 12). Its exactly the sort of pedigree that seems logically to suggest that 12 furlongs would be ideal, but does seem to be too stout for the Derby in 3 out of 4 years. I would though, as Duncan points out, have to insert a word of caution and retract my initial superficial observations about Recital's stamina as some half sibs that would give him half a chance of actually not staying, so its not as clear cut as it might be. The grand sire Kendor was actually a french guineas winner so his stamina index of 12 may be seriously misleading and he could in fact, as Duncan sort of points out, be in the "not too slow" category after all. personally I suspect Recital is hard to fancy for the Derby as he does seem to do a pretty passable impersonation of a very talented dog; hanging, head in air and unco-operative with the jockeys. I really cannot remember a "dog" winning the Derby - ever.
I have always myself liked 2 things about my major Derby fancies. First is a horse I am pretty certain on breeding must stay 12 furlongs but who show top class form over shorter particularly over a mile in the 2000 Guineas. Nashwan, Sea The Stars, Nijinsky, Mill Reef, Generous, Sir Percy and New Approach (& others) fit this profile.
Then there are the ones who show real promise in trials (like Galileo, Shergar, Troy, etc etc). These are the ones I worry about when they seem to have too much 12 furlong blood in sire, dam and dam;s sire. They always look like they will need 14 furlongs to me, a bit like Soldieroffortune did imo (sorry soldier to call you slow again!).
This year aside from Native Khan there is nothing from the Guineas; and Native Khan although bred to stay I think, may just not be quite good enough. The reason I worry about him is that the Guineas as a matter of form was just destroyed by frankel, as everything that was supposed to have a chance knackkered themselves utterly by trying to keep tabs on Frankel, whereas the ones who let him clear off and then come through at the end did easily the best. It just makes the form of the beaten horses very dicey indeed and I am almost sure that if Frankel had not done his Tudor Minstrel impersonation, the result would have looked a bit different. I mean look at the distances - they were much more like the ones you see at the end of a Sedgefield heavy ground 3 mile chase.
To me this leaves my choice as Carlton House. Its boring and I personally did not get much by way of fancy odds, having to top up my book at the 5/2 after the Dante. I do though think he has a very good chance. Whether he's value at 2/1 as Tom Segal suggests is another matter.
Good luck to you all though.
In respect to Lammtara, he only ran 4 times I think and never ran above 129. He was a bit lucky to beat Pentire in the King George I seem to remember. Of course he was game and tough and obviously was loaded with stamina, but he was certainly not as good even as High Chaparral. He would have made a cracking Cup horse at 4 though with all that stamina in his pedigree!
Duncan Idaho; the analysis is simplistic. If the 3 immediate relatives in a Derby winner's pedigree were 12 furlong pedigrees or stamina influences then I called them or classified them as "too slow". A bit hypocritical as its the sort of half baked theory the loony Mordin tends to try out with all has data bases.
What I showed is that in the last 20 years, the Derby winners with at least one of the three primary ancestors having 8 furlong pedigrees or less won 15 of the last 20 Derbies.
I am not saying (as the tossspot Mordin seems to do too often) anything dogmatic about what that will mean for the next 20 Derbies, but my guess is that the speed is necessary and that there was more than a grain of truth in the John Oxx claim that someone referred to earlier and started me off.
In respect to Recital, his pedigree is by Montjeu, stamina index 11.6, out of a mare by Kendor (stamina index 12). Its exactly the sort of pedigree that seems logically to suggest that 12 furlongs would be ideal, but does seem to be too stout for the Derby in 3 out of 4 years. I would though, as Duncan points out, have to insert a word of caution and retract my initial superficial observations about Recital's stamina as some half sibs that would give him half a chance of actually not staying, so its not as clear cut as it might be. The grand sire Kendor was actually a french guineas winner so his stamina index of 12 may be seriously misleading and he could in fact, as Duncan sort of points out, be in the "not too slow" category after all. personally I suspect Recital is hard to fancy for the Derby as he does seem to do a pretty passable impersonation of a very talented dog; hanging, head in air and unco-operative with the jockeys. I really cannot remember a "dog" winning the Derby - ever.
I have always myself liked 2 things about my major Derby fancies. First is a horse I am pretty certain on breeding must stay 12 furlongs but who show top class form over shorter particularly over a mile in the 2000 Guineas. Nashwan, Sea The Stars, Nijinsky, Mill Reef, Generous, Sir Percy and New Approach (& others) fit this profile.
Then there are the ones who show real promise in trials (like Galileo, Shergar, Troy, etc etc). These are the ones I worry about when they seem to have too much 12 furlong blood in sire, dam and dam;s sire. They always look like they will need 14 furlongs to me, a bit like Soldieroffortune did imo (sorry soldier to call you slow again!).
This year aside from Native Khan there is nothing from the Guineas; and Native Khan although bred to stay I think, may just not be quite good enough. The reason I worry about him is that the Guineas as a matter of form was just destroyed by frankel, as everything that was supposed to have a chance knackkered themselves utterly by trying to keep tabs on Frankel, whereas the ones who let him clear off and then come through at the end did easily the best. It just makes the form of the beaten horses very dicey indeed and I am almost sure that if Frankel had not done his Tudor Minstrel impersonation, the result would have looked a bit different. I mean look at the distances - they were much more like the ones you see at the end of a Sedgefield heavy ground 3 mile chase.
To me this leaves my choice as Carlton House. Its boring and I personally did not get much by way of fancy odds, having to top up my book at the 5/2 after the Dante. I do though think he has a very good chance. Whether he's value at 2/1 as Tom Segal suggests is another matter.
Good luck to you all though.
You slate Mordin then proceed to do some very Mordin-esque research.
Get a grip, ignore Mordin's dogmatic predictions and understand why he approaches analysis as he does. Because without him there'd be a pretty big void in racing research and he gets credit for inspiring a lot of people IMO
Get a grip, ignore Mordin's dogmatic predictions and understand why he approaches analysis as he does. Because without him there'd be a pretty big void in racing research and he gets credit for inspiring a lot of people IMO
"In respect to Lammtara, he only ran 4 times I think and never ran above 129. He was a bit lucky to beat Pentire in the King George I seem to remember. Of course he was game and tough and obviously was loaded with stamina, but he was certainly not as good even as High Chaparral. He would have made a cracking Cup horse at 4 though with all that stamina in his pedigree!"
Sorry but this is just dreamland stuff and you should really not place too much faith into official/timeform figures as they are seriously flawed when it compares to time and other analysis...'lucky' to beat Pentire lol ? Lammtarra was 4/4 in his lifetime including a listed race at 2yo, Derby, King George and Arc...you just don't get that kind of horse come around every year...Sea The Stars has been the best since with his Guineas win added into the mix for his versatility although I believe Lammtarra beat better horses in his races...but those two stand head and shoulders above everything since Dancing Brave and Nashwan, the rest were just 'good' Derby winners...although I am still waiting with bated breath to see what Workforce does this season.
All you have done is fit your 'analysis' in around the misguided concept that 'slow' or rather horses bred to get a trip, don't win the Derby.
As for the 'slating' of Mordin...I agree wih jair1970...I think the man has done more for alternative handicapping and ideas in this country than most other 'experts'. Certainly better than the tosh you have just spouted on the Derby and the pedigree 'analysis'...and I use that term loosely.
Sorry but this is just dreamland stuff and you should really not place too much faith into official/timeform figures as they are seriously flawed when it compares to time and other analysis...'lucky' to beat Pentire lol ? Lammtarra was 4/4 in his lifetime including a listed race at 2yo, Derby, King George and Arc...you just don't get that kind of horse come around every year...Sea The Stars has been the best since with his Guineas win added into the mix for his versatility although I believe Lammtarra beat better horses in his races...but those two stand head and shoulders above everything since Dancing Brave and Nashwan, the rest were just 'good' Derby winners...although I am still waiting with bated breath to see what Workforce does this season.
All you have done is fit your 'analysis' in around the misguided concept that 'slow' or rather horses bred to get a trip, don't win the Derby.
As for the 'slating' of Mordin...I agree wih jair1970...I think the man has done more for alternative handicapping and ideas in this country than most other 'experts'. Certainly better than the tosh you have just spouted on the Derby and the pedigree 'analysis'...and I use that term loosely.
disagree about lammtara. he was clearly an exceptional horse. to say he was "lucky" to beat pentire is clearly wrong, as he outbattled and outstayed that horse. watch a replay of that race and you'll see what I mean. pentire comes there hacking all over him and it takes an exceptional display to wrest the race off the geoff wragg animal, a point which was emphasised the following year in the same race when pentire absolutely hacked up. ok we will never know for sure how good he could have become because like most good horses he was retired to early.
however I agree completely with the whole thing that you can have too stout a pedigree to win a derby. of course it doesn't work every year, but if you go with that type of horse that can have the speed to be competitive over a mile, but looks like it might stay further, you'll always have the edge over those backers who prefer horses that are sure to stay the trip.
however I agree completely with the whole thing that you can have too stout a pedigree to win a derby. of course it doesn't work every year, but if you go with that type of horse that can have the speed to be competitive over a mile, but looks like it might stay further, you'll always have the edge over those backers who prefer horses that are sure to stay the trip.
Pentire had to go widest of all, mainly cos Lammatarra looked like he was too slow to get out of his way approaching home turn, then used his energy up too soon hitting the front 2f out...i have little doubt Pentire would have done Lammtarra for speed if he had been held on to and not gone via car park
Obviously Duncan I agree with you. Pentire hit the front too soon and Lammtara, to his credit, did rally.
Lammtara was very much the same sort of hose, hardly an ounce in it, as Pentire, who was another good, very worthy, honest group 1 horse. But to describe either of them as "exceptional" is a bit silly. Every season since i can remember there has been at least 1 or 2 horses as good or better than either of them. Lammtara was certainly one of the toughest and determined horses though - a sort of staying version of Giant's Causeway; so I certaibly wouldn't knock him. I wished I had owned him that's for sure.
Okay so I had another pop at Mordin. His disciples don't like it - fair enough. I did say I was being a bit hypocritical doing the same sort of thing that he does even if my efforts took a few minutes and were just for a bit of a laugh, but he gets paid loads and has a massive data base and uses Raceform (not doubt tax deductible expenses too). I actually quite like some of Mordin's theories. The stuff about analysing top class and inexperienced horses who did not run straight on a previous run was actually very interesting and intelligent stuff. On occasions though he relies on statistics that are neither intelligent or interesting and he is irritating when getting too dogmatic - like all that blather about Frankel not liking a strong early pace; and he never seems to come back and hold his hands up.
In respect to the guff about form and ratings and reliance on times, I guess I would just have to agree to disagree, albeit amicably of course with secretgambler. I actually believe that comparing the form of horses with eachother is the only really sound method for evaluating the merit of racehorses. The use of times in particular is fraught with problems if they are to be used for anything other than a confirmation of the merits of a form performance. The reasons for this assertion in respect to times is from an essay I read years ago by the guru of timefigures - the great Ken Hussey (Split Second), who used to write so well in the old Sporting Chronicle Handicap book. He, even back then, bemoaned the practice of false going reports from racecourses, changes to the positions of the starts of races, changes to the position of the running rails that made for example mile races longer or shorter than a mile etc etc. The problems of calculating going allowances were believed by Mr Hussey, to be extremely difficult. He was a genius who tipped about a zillion winners a season based on time figures and if he thought they were unreliable then I think they are probable just that - unreliable.
Lammtara was very much the same sort of hose, hardly an ounce in it, as Pentire, who was another good, very worthy, honest group 1 horse. But to describe either of them as "exceptional" is a bit silly. Every season since i can remember there has been at least 1 or 2 horses as good or better than either of them. Lammtara was certainly one of the toughest and determined horses though - a sort of staying version of Giant's Causeway; so I certaibly wouldn't knock him. I wished I had owned him that's for sure.
Okay so I had another pop at Mordin. His disciples don't like it - fair enough. I did say I was being a bit hypocritical doing the same sort of thing that he does even if my efforts took a few minutes and were just for a bit of a laugh, but he gets paid loads and has a massive data base and uses Raceform (not doubt tax deductible expenses too). I actually quite like some of Mordin's theories. The stuff about analysing top class and inexperienced horses who did not run straight on a previous run was actually very interesting and intelligent stuff. On occasions though he relies on statistics that are neither intelligent or interesting and he is irritating when getting too dogmatic - like all that blather about Frankel not liking a strong early pace; and he never seems to come back and hold his hands up.
In respect to the guff about form and ratings and reliance on times, I guess I would just have to agree to disagree, albeit amicably of course with secretgambler. I actually believe that comparing the form of horses with eachother is the only really sound method for evaluating the merit of racehorses. The use of times in particular is fraught with problems if they are to be used for anything other than a confirmation of the merits of a form performance. The reasons for this assertion in respect to times is from an essay I read years ago by the guru of timefigures - the great Ken Hussey (Split Second), who used to write so well in the old Sporting Chronicle Handicap book. He, even back then, bemoaned the practice of false going reports from racecourses, changes to the positions of the starts of races, changes to the position of the running rails that made for example mile races longer or shorter than a mile etc etc. The problems of calculating going allowances were believed by Mr Hussey, to be extremely difficult. He was a genius who tipped about a zillion winners a season based on time figures and if he thought they were unreliable then I think they are probable just that - unreliable.
cryoftruth
I think that you are wrong if you see comparative form ratings as merely a (superior)alternative to time ratings instead of as one being a complement to the other, with each having different advantages and disadvantages, and which help to add light and shade to a single bare figure.It is not necessary to discard one over the other with one being more "right" than the other.
I have no doubt that collateral ratings are very solid and reliable when assessing past form especially when used for horses with plenty of form in the book.
Their greatest weakness however,is when assessing lightly raced horses, and here time analysis can add another dimension. As you know, I have spent many years delving into the use of sectional times, and whilst I accept that errors can abound, their usefulness for getting a fix on how much improvement there is to come or perhaps more accurately, how much a rating may be under or over-rated is beyond dispute for me.
The main limitation of relying solely on collateral form, to my mind, is that European markets are largely founded upon the collateral ratings and therefore the chances indicated by collateral ratings are reflected in the prices and finding the value depends upon interpretation of other factors.
I certainly don't profess to get it right every time,but by and large manage to get ahead of the game, especially at the top level.So, I must be doing something right.
I think that you are wrong if you see comparative form ratings as merely a (superior)alternative to time ratings instead of as one being a complement to the other, with each having different advantages and disadvantages, and which help to add light and shade to a single bare figure.It is not necessary to discard one over the other with one being more "right" than the other.
I have no doubt that collateral ratings are very solid and reliable when assessing past form especially when used for horses with plenty of form in the book.
Their greatest weakness however,is when assessing lightly raced horses, and here time analysis can add another dimension. As you know, I have spent many years delving into the use of sectional times, and whilst I accept that errors can abound, their usefulness for getting a fix on how much improvement there is to come or perhaps more accurately, how much a rating may be under or over-rated is beyond dispute for me.
The main limitation of relying solely on collateral form, to my mind, is that European markets are largely founded upon the collateral ratings and therefore the chances indicated by collateral ratings are reflected in the prices and finding the value depends upon interpretation of other factors.
I certainly don't profess to get it right every time,but by and large manage to get ahead of the game, especially at the top level.So, I must be doing something right.
As a past follower of Ken Hussey, I have to say you've misinterpreted his quotes. It's true that he was critical of racing's authorities and the amateurish actions of clerks, if you don't complain then you don't get improvements, but he never said speed figures (on the whole) were unreliable, just the opposite in fact. There are difficulties in compiling them accurately but that's what makes them valuable, when done well. There are just as many errors in the compilation of form ratings, which is why so many ratings are altered by the end of the year, it's just that they are easier to compile, which makes them less valuable, imo.
I agree with Figgis's comments re Ken Hussey but in further defence of "time " as an aid I offer the following points:
1. Phil Bull, who was no mean backer, relied heavily on time even his Timeform ratings are based on collateral form. To quote from his biography "From the late thirties, Bull's most successful period of betting was based on a simple theory of time..."
2. Alex Bird, another no-mean punter, is quoted is his autobiography with "..race course timing was so important in my assessment of horses, especially two year-olds"
3. One or two serious punters of whom I have an acquaintance base their betting heavily on their time ratings
4. The whole of US racing uses time ratings, either Beyer or The Sheets, with no presence of collateral ratings. Surely it is arrogant to suggest that they are all wrong over there?
I hope that one day you have "time" on your side to re-assess your views.
1. Phil Bull, who was no mean backer, relied heavily on time even his Timeform ratings are based on collateral form. To quote from his biography "From the late thirties, Bull's most successful period of betting was based on a simple theory of time..."
2. Alex Bird, another no-mean punter, is quoted is his autobiography with "..race course timing was so important in my assessment of horses, especially two year-olds"
3. One or two serious punters of whom I have an acquaintance base their betting heavily on their time ratings
4. The whole of US racing uses time ratings, either Beyer or The Sheets, with no presence of collateral ratings. Surely it is arrogant to suggest that they are all wrong over there?
I hope that one day you have "time" on your side to re-assess your views.
even IF his Timeform ratings are based on collateral form.
I'd love to be won over by time ratings/speed figs but i struggle to see how they can be sufficiently reliable when many races are not run at anything like a true pace. I dabble with sectionals myself but only to illuminate as to the way the race has been run pacewise (sounds like you produce a rating based on your sectionals, sandown). Anyone who goes to the trouble deserves to gain a bit of an edge, tho.
(ps i believe Alex Bird used to manage no more than a 4% return on turnover of around £2mill pa, dodgy photo betting and all)
(ps i believe Alex Bird used to manage no more than a 4% return on turnover of around £2mill pa, dodgy photo betting and all)
A really interesting reply both Sandown and figgis - thanks for that.
I am not particularly critical of those who devote the necessary amount of time to speed figures - I had a go once but you need more patience than I have that;'s for certain.
For 2yo's I always look for a decent speed figure or race time before contemplating the latest crazy shot at the following year's Guineas or even betting on a 2yo race.
However this is as I say just for confirmation of an apparent good impression.
one trouble with speed figures (quite aside from the problem with going allowances and changes to the actual race distances etc etc ) is that a come from behind horse may be a great horse but will never prove it on the clock until he h=gets into t race where there is a strong fast even tempo throughout.
I have no idea for example of Sea the Stars ever ran a decent speed figure - he only did what was required - nothing fancy at all. If he had never done a decent speed figure (as was possible ) he would still have been an all time great imo. That's the trouble with speed figures. It cannot assess the value of a horse's merits as accurately as collateral form. This is because you just don't know whether a horse might be capable of running a fast speed figure until they actually do so. I knew Sea The Stars could pretty much krapp on anything after watching the 2000 Guineas. The form was in the book.
Anyway an interesting debate and discussion. i will ask you two about speed figures again - I am not proud where I get free advice and information from!
I am not particularly critical of those who devote the necessary amount of time to speed figures - I had a go once but you need more patience than I have that;'s for certain.
For 2yo's I always look for a decent speed figure or race time before contemplating the latest crazy shot at the following year's Guineas or even betting on a 2yo race.
However this is as I say just for confirmation of an apparent good impression.
one trouble with speed figures (quite aside from the problem with going allowances and changes to the actual race distances etc etc ) is that a come from behind horse may be a great horse but will never prove it on the clock until he h=gets into t race where there is a strong fast even tempo throughout.
I have no idea for example of Sea the Stars ever ran a decent speed figure - he only did what was required - nothing fancy at all. If he had never done a decent speed figure (as was possible ) he would still have been an all time great imo. That's the trouble with speed figures. It cannot assess the value of a horse's merits as accurately as collateral form. This is because you just don't know whether a horse might be capable of running a fast speed figure until they actually do so. I knew Sea The Stars could pretty much krapp on anything after watching the 2000 Guineas. The form was in the book.
Anyway an interesting debate and discussion. i will ask you two about speed figures again - I am not proud where I get free advice and information from!
One of the best quotes i heard regarding speedfigures is "It tells you how bad a horse isnt"
yes I heard that zilzal.
I never really got past the oddities that speed figures could throw up; where out of the blue a poretty exposed older handicapper would run what appeared to be a very high speed figure. I would be left trying to find reasons to down grade the apparent improvement by a 70 rated 6yo who had apparently just run a speed figure equal to the best group 1 horse top have run for 2 years. I found a new phenomenon called a "class figure" that allowed me to downgrade poorer hoses speed figures when they didn't make sense. The reason I gave it all up and am unconvinced to this day is that having to introduce a"class figure" meant you were cheating pure speed and time figures by introducing form into them.
Having said all that a really bad horse cannot smash the all age track record for the Epsom trip.
I am a dinosaur who still hangs onto the fact that Arkle still holds the track record for 3 miles at Sandown too; and that achieved carrying a somewhat inconvenient stopper of 12 stones 7 lbs!
I never really got past the oddities that speed figures could throw up; where out of the blue a poretty exposed older handicapper would run what appeared to be a very high speed figure. I would be left trying to find reasons to down grade the apparent improvement by a 70 rated 6yo who had apparently just run a speed figure equal to the best group 1 horse top have run for 2 years. I found a new phenomenon called a "class figure" that allowed me to downgrade poorer hoses speed figures when they didn't make sense. The reason I gave it all up and am unconvinced to this day is that having to introduce a"class figure" meant you were cheating pure speed and time figures by introducing form into them.
Having said all that a really bad horse cannot smash the all age track record for the Epsom trip.
I am a dinosaur who still hangs onto the fact that Arkle still holds the track record for 3 miles at Sandown too; and that achieved carrying a somewhat inconvenient stopper of 12 stones 7 lbs!
You're right, COT, about introducing the "form" element. I don't use any collateral ratings myself to adjust my own figures but I do use my interpretation of form. This obviously means they're open to error, but as I said, the same is true for any kind of ratings. In my view, a knowledge of form is vital, I think any "pure" speed figures would be useless.
It cannot assess the value of a horse's merits as accurately as collateral form. T
Funny, but I would put it the other way round
Funny, but I would put it the other way round
Sandown
Don't you agree that they also give a more accurate measure of a horse's form cycles, progressions, regressions, etc?
Don't you agree that they also give a more accurate measure of a horse's form cycles, progressions, regressions, etc?
COT, once in a while even an exposed horse will put in a figure that is totally out of line with its previous ones and it may never have the conditions to ever replicate it again, where i find they are a essential tool is with unexposed ones.
As with everything it should be used with regard to a risk/reward scenario and thats where personal preference lies within ourselves.
Agree with Figgis last post
As with everything it should be used with regard to a risk/reward scenario and thats where personal preference lies within ourselves.
Agree with Figgis last post
Indeed I do, Figgis. It also helps to expose the somewhat variable effect of weight which doen't always work out in practice with the individual's ability to carry weight sometimes varying enormously.It also helps to understand the effects of going even if the allowance can be subject to error. All in all, collateral handicappers can miss an awful lot of info.which you only get from understanding times.
I'm no expert on time figures but surely it would have been impossible for any horse in the Dante to clock an impressive time figure. Nick Mordin suggests that CH is a bad favourite but how is any horse supposed to clock a good figure when the race is run at such a slow pace.
I remember Bosra Sham being undone at Sandown because of a slow pace and she was exceptional. Surely the fact CH still managed to win even though there was no pace is more relevant.
I remember Bosra Sham being undone at Sandown because of a slow pace and she was exceptional. Surely the fact CH still managed to win even though there was no pace is more relevant.
dee
When a horse has clocked a fast time, you know that the form is solid.
If the race is slowly run, you have to take it on trust that it is capable of running to a fast time figure in line with its higher collateral rating. That may or may not be true. That is where the doubt lies with CH. Faster pace over further and on a idiosyncratic track makes it not a done deal.
When a horse has clocked a fast time, you know that the form is solid.
If the race is slowly run, you have to take it on trust that it is capable of running to a fast time figure in line with its higher collateral rating. That may or may not be true. That is where the doubt lies with CH. Faster pace over further and on a idiosyncratic track makes it not a done deal.
Dee, I don't think anybody has said that CH couldn't clock a good time given the opportunity, you're right it was impossible the way the Dante was run. It's just that he's such a short price for a horse that has only won a slowly run trial.
Sandown, sorry to sidetrack the thread but I'm interested in your view on the Oaks?
Figgis
Haven't really got into it but Blue Bunting ran an even pace in the 1000 Gns which is usually a good indicator that if bred to stay it will stay, maybe even improve. In which case it looks a strong favourite. Can't say that the figures are exceptional however ...but still better than CH for the Derby ..although that colt does have a TOF which BB hasn't shown.
Haven't really got into it but Blue Bunting ran an even pace in the 1000 Gns which is usually a good indicator that if bred to stay it will stay, maybe even improve. In which case it looks a strong favourite. Can't say that the figures are exceptional however ...but still better than CH for the Derby ..although that colt does have a TOF which BB hasn't shown.
Sandown / Figgis, fair enough point CH still has to go and prove it and I guess everything in this business is price related. If you have not backed CH at big prices its risky to find out if he can clock good times.
My main point i guess, is that I like to back horses that overcome problems and still find ways to win. For me CH pulled hard got outpaced and still came back to win. Funnily enough I have backed CH antepost and i was more concerned not with a lack of stamina but why he got outpaced briefly.
My main point i guess, is that I like to back horses that overcome problems and still find ways to win. For me CH pulled hard got outpaced and still came back to win. Funnily enough I have backed CH antepost and i was more concerned not with a lack of stamina but why he got outpaced briefly.
figgis/ sandown
Its actually good to have a discussion and feel able to disagree without the other person resorting to abuse. Thank you.
Now then you half wits.... only joking.
Carlton House is a typical problem for time students.
He has won a maiden albeit impressively and won the Dante, also pretty impressively.
The trainer (no mug) seems to think he's a Derby horse and has trained him for the Dante since last year.
He is bred to stay and looks sure to be suited by a stronger pace and longer trip.
However his time rating would be akin to a poor plater.
If he won the Derby (admittedly a big doubt and a silly price at 6/4) he would, according to speed figures, have improved around 4 stones.
As I say I like a decent speed figure to confirm the form of a horse, but there is a huge gap in speed figures as Carltion Hosue demonstartes so well.
Its actually good to have a discussion and feel able to disagree without the other person resorting to abuse. Thank you.
Now then you half wits.... only joking.
Carlton House is a typical problem for time students.
He has won a maiden albeit impressively and won the Dante, also pretty impressively.
The trainer (no mug) seems to think he's a Derby horse and has trained him for the Dante since last year.
He is bred to stay and looks sure to be suited by a stronger pace and longer trip.
However his time rating would be akin to a poor plater.
If he won the Derby (admittedly a big doubt and a silly price at 6/4) he would, according to speed figures, have improved around 4 stones.
As I say I like a decent speed figure to confirm the form of a horse, but there is a huge gap in speed figures as Carltion Hosue demonstartes so well.
Stoue and Moore don't strike me as the type of people who would hold a press conference about a horse who won't stay the trip.
The question about the horse is not whether he will stay the trip. Its whether he is good enough and gets luck in running. 6/4 is a pretty mean price. I think he is okay ish at 5/2 but no shorter than that. I have just laid him at 6/4 - a value decision. I suspect he'll be easily available at 7/4 or 2/1 on the day. I think the bookies are hyping the horse in respect to the price and trying to convince people that its a certainty.
Look at it this way.
The once or twice a year punters won't be backing ante post.
Professional punters are generally not imbeciles. They will therefore be quite unlikely to be hammering into this horse at 7/4 and less. Its my guess the horse is a huge winner for the bookies in the ante post markets because of the defection of Frankel. They are trying to milk their profits.
Look at it this way.
The once or twice a year punters won't be backing ante post.
Professional punters are generally not imbeciles. They will therefore be quite unlikely to be hammering into this horse at 7/4 and less. Its my guess the horse is a huge winner for the bookies in the ante post markets because of the defection of Frankel. They are trying to milk their profits.
cryoftruth
Carlton House is a typical problem for time students.
In point of fact, CH is not a typicalproblem for time students because horses with time figures as poor as his prior to the Derby is not typical at all of potential Derby winners. If anything, CH is a problem for collateral handicappers who insist on giving him a high rating despite the warnings given by the poor time and therefore poor pace of the race on which the rating is made.
No-one is saying that CH is a poor horse, obviously. Good horses can win despite a poor pace and he showed enough of a turn of foot which combined with his breeding to indicate that he is much better than the bare form. That combined with the confidence shown by his illustrious connections and his work indicate that he is highly thought of. But he should never be 6/4 fav and there is a case for saying that he shouldn't even be favourite. his position at the head of the market is based on potential and promise beyond the facts.
Taking just the last 10-15 years of Dante winners, CH returned a figure on my ratings of 19lbs behind the poorest winner of the Dante which went on to win at Epsom, i.e North Light.His figure is even below that of Workforce who didn't win the Dante.
That's bad enough, but I can also tell you that his figures are some 13lb plus below those of the poorest winners which didn't win at Epsom i.e Septimus, Dilshaan, Magistrelli.
To my mind, CH is not a problem for me. There is no way that I will play him (at current prices) as a winner. At best, he is a saver allowing for the massive respect one must give to trainer and
jockey. He will no doubt show how good he really is,in the Derby itself. But to say with confidence that he is the best horse in the race is to grossly over-rate what he has done.
Carlton House is a typical problem for time students.
In point of fact, CH is not a typicalproblem for time students because horses with time figures as poor as his prior to the Derby is not typical at all of potential Derby winners. If anything, CH is a problem for collateral handicappers who insist on giving him a high rating despite the warnings given by the poor time and therefore poor pace of the race on which the rating is made.
No-one is saying that CH is a poor horse, obviously. Good horses can win despite a poor pace and he showed enough of a turn of foot which combined with his breeding to indicate that he is much better than the bare form. That combined with the confidence shown by his illustrious connections and his work indicate that he is highly thought of. But he should never be 6/4 fav and there is a case for saying that he shouldn't even be favourite. his position at the head of the market is based on potential and promise beyond the facts.
Taking just the last 10-15 years of Dante winners, CH returned a figure on my ratings of 19lbs behind the poorest winner of the Dante which went on to win at Epsom, i.e North Light.His figure is even below that of Workforce who didn't win the Dante.
That's bad enough, but I can also tell you that his figures are some 13lb plus below those of the poorest winners which didn't win at Epsom i.e Septimus, Dilshaan, Magistrelli.
To my mind, CH is not a problem for me. There is no way that I will play him (at current prices) as a winner. At best, he is a saver allowing for the massive respect one must give to trainer and
jockey. He will no doubt show how good he really is,in the Derby itself. But to say with confidence that he is the best horse in the race is to grossly over-rate what he has done.
Sandown
That's a valid comparison with North Light. I took 8's for him after the Dante (apologies for the 7 years aftertiming [;)]). Despite the slow time, I very much liked what I saw him do in the Dante. He started at 7/2 on the day, for me, CH should be no shorter than that.
That's a valid comparison with North Light. I took 8's for him after the Dante (apologies for the 7 years aftertiming [;)]). Despite the slow time, I very much liked what I saw him do in the Dante. He started at 7/2 on the day, for me, CH should be no shorter than that.
Figgis
I've no problems with people saying what they backed years ago or even weeks ago -its immediately following the race that is aggravating.If we can't refer to past events there would be no history books at all- in fact there would be no history, full stop!
I've no problems with people saying what they backed years ago or even weeks ago -its immediately following the race that is aggravating.If we can't refer to past events there would be no history books at all- in fact there would be no history, full stop!
'his position at the head of the market is based on potential and promise beyond the facts.'
imo his position at the head of the market is as a result of the weight of money in that ante-post market...that money forced World Dom, Carlton House and Seville into 1st, 2nd and 3rd favouritism for the Derby prior to the Dante, so it's inevitable that having taken care of his 2 closest market rivals C House would become a strong fav, no matter what the time for the Dante. Was the ante-post market right to make them the strongest Derby candidates? You decide.
The Dante time was slow due to a funereal pace. Whilst that slow pace provides a doubt as to the value of the form, included in that is the possibility that CH wasnt able to show his true superiority....who knows, he might have gone and won by 4 lengths like Authorized, say, off a true pace.
I'm no speed figure expert at all but i would have thought that you would worry when a horse had the opportunity to post a good figure and didnt....C House had no opportunity to post a good figure at York.
imo his position at the head of the market is as a result of the weight of money in that ante-post market...that money forced World Dom, Carlton House and Seville into 1st, 2nd and 3rd favouritism for the Derby prior to the Dante, so it's inevitable that having taken care of his 2 closest market rivals C House would become a strong fav, no matter what the time for the Dante. Was the ante-post market right to make them the strongest Derby candidates? You decide.
The Dante time was slow due to a funereal pace. Whilst that slow pace provides a doubt as to the value of the form, included in that is the possibility that CH wasnt able to show his true superiority....who knows, he might have gone and won by 4 lengths like Authorized, say, off a true pace.
I'm no speed figure expert at all but i would have thought that you would worry when a horse had the opportunity to post a good figure and didnt....C House had no opportunity to post a good figure at York.
Sandown a good response as ever.
I would admit its a problem for form as well as time buffs the question of how good carlton house actually is. The reason is not just that he has never been in a fast race and thus has never had the chance to record a fast time. Its the Dante form is suspect anyway. The horses involved were mainly half fit, first time out, or needing as deal further. The value of the form is entirely guess work , as is which horse will improve most for the run and the step up in trip.
I thought Carlton house's maiden win looked visually very interesting and had a ring of class about it. The fact that he has a big reputation and is thought of highly by Sir Michael is another clue. his pedigree is very nice and he should stay okay. His winning the Dante, albeit a confusing Dante is a positive and all things considered it would be a surprise if he was not a group 1 performer. However 5/4??? He could improve 10 lbs on what he has done on the track so far and still only finish 3rd or 4th at Epsom!
I would admit its a problem for form as well as time buffs the question of how good carlton house actually is. The reason is not just that he has never been in a fast race and thus has never had the chance to record a fast time. Its the Dante form is suspect anyway. The horses involved were mainly half fit, first time out, or needing as deal further. The value of the form is entirely guess work , as is which horse will improve most for the run and the step up in trip.
I thought Carlton house's maiden win looked visually very interesting and had a ring of class about it. The fact that he has a big reputation and is thought of highly by Sir Michael is another clue. his pedigree is very nice and he should stay okay. His winning the Dante, albeit a confusing Dante is a positive and all things considered it would be a surprise if he was not a group 1 performer. However 5/4??? He could improve 10 lbs on what he has done on the track so far and still only finish 3rd or 4th at Epsom!
To Duncan re good figures, this was in Mordins column a wek ago re the last 5 furlongs
The most remarkable thing about the Dante was that the early pace was slow but the colts failed to make up the lost time in the sprint for home. They reached the five furlong from home mark 3.2 seconds later than the fillies did in the Middleton Stakes yet still came home from there a fifth of a second slower.
He went on to say that the last 3 furlongs was 0.90 quicker than the Middleton though, its the risk/reward scenario and although he can win there is every chance he's not the real deal, at the current odds i have to try and get him out of the two
The most remarkable thing about the Dante was that the early pace was slow but the colts failed to make up the lost time in the sprint for home. They reached the five furlong from home mark 3.2 seconds later than the fillies did in the Middleton Stakes yet still came home from there a fifth of a second slower.
He went on to say that the last 3 furlongs was 0.90 quicker than the Middleton though, its the risk/reward scenario and although he can win there is every chance he's not the real deal, at the current odds i have to try and get him out of the two
Thanks, zilzal....yes, i did some sectionals myself and the Dante didnt start clawing back time on the Middleton until inside final 3f
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