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11 Apr 11 20:25
Date Joined: 22 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 6,762 | Blogger: cryoftruth's blog
Managed on Sunday to beat one 80+ rated horse and get beaten by another 80+ rated horse.

In finishing third he also managed to hang left & put his head in the air and to one side.

Okay he was given an easy race (jockey may be lucky not to be banned for riding him like a non tryer) and he will appreciate softer going and a greater test of stamina. but the tote cut him to 8/1 after what was, in truth, a flop.

What is the world coming to?
Show More
Report Dark Destroyer May 8, 2011 4:41 PM BST
Correct Ramruna.

Otherwise totally meaningless.
Report unclepuncle May 8, 2011 4:42 PM BST
Hardly looked the performance of a Derby winner to my eyesConfused. His head carriage is terrible and if he hangs like that at Leopardstown how the heck is he going to cope with the camber at EpsomShocked
Report Ramruma May 8, 2011 4:48 PM BST
Coolmore's Seville is now a shorter price than Recital for the Derby on here.

Do we know who rides Seville in the Dante on Thursday? Will it be Fallon in order to compare the two?
Report Spirit May 8, 2011 4:56 PM BST
Seville out to 10 with paddy
Report cantspell May 8, 2011 5:01 PM BST
is that a typing error with paddys
Report Spirit May 8, 2011 5:03 PM BST
Its priced at 10,not bet it myself
Report resner not lesnar May 8, 2011 5:13 PM BST
Seville also 10/3 for the Dante with pp. In both cases he is shorter on here. Perhaps they know something. I hope not, was looking forward to the Dante clash.
Report jamesp May 8, 2011 5:33 PM BST
That's two races in a row where Recital has hung left into the rail.  With the camber at Epsom he'll have no chance whatever if he hangs like that again...

Seville's form was at least as good as Recital's last season, so I'm looking forward to seeing him take on the highly regarded maiden winners in the Dante.
Report mightymoyes May 8, 2011 5:38 PM BST
any word on how will ride seville on thurs yet?
Report cryoftruth May 8, 2011 7:55 PM BST
that is twice in a row that Recital has done a pretty decent impersonation of a dodgepot, hanging, holding his head on one side, not helping his rider at all and generally barking his way down the straight.

he might improve massively and maybe would like softer going, but he's not for me for the Derby.
Report Graeme83 May 8, 2011 9:14 PM BST
9/2 with VC and WH...give me a ****g break. I bet a pound and a penny he's 9/1 and higher on the day. Maybe even as high as 12/1.
Report sintonian May 9, 2011 4:17 PM BST
Declan McDonough said today the headwind yesterday was the strongest he'd ever known it, fwiw.

I am still not convinvced though, despite backing at 14/1 some time ago. The horse has plenty of natural ability, but is a bit idle and difficult to ride.
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle May 10, 2011 3:30 PM BST
Still very strong in the market....obviously they feel he has some potential
Report cryoftruth May 10, 2011 9:29 PM BST
I could understand it if he was strong in the market for the Pertemps Final.
Report Albion Dan May 10, 2011 9:39 PM BST
Report Can't Catch Me May 11, 2011 12:08 PM BST
I might be in the minority but I thought it was a really good performance, and it puts him fimly on track for the derby. As I said on the other thread, he idled in front imo and was almost looking back to see where the other horses were, which made it look like he hung worse than he did.

Still my idea of the winner. Strong pace and a challenge will bring out the best in him for me.
Report cryoftruth May 11, 2011 4:53 PM BST
Maybe you are right Catch Me.

Looking at his form it seems the times he has hung were the twice he had fast ground this season. his 2yo form seems to be a first time out win on good ground (only workmanlike) and a real top performance on soft ground. There is at least a bit of evidence that the brute might be better with plenty of gove - like some Montjeus and like the great Montjeu himself too.

At Epsom he is unlikely to face really fast ground, and they may water and get rain and that would be ideal.

I have to say I would not back him myself though on any ground. He looks a bit too dodgy and the head in the air is not good, but head in the air and to one side and then to hang left looks like the recipe for a bad Epsom run to me.
Report sotac May 12, 2011 3:23 PM BST
After the dante today, keep Recital off the rail and he wins The Derby.
Report duncan idaho May 12, 2011 5:27 PM BST
not if he doesnt stay, he wont [;)]
Report Waterwheel Inc. May 12, 2011 6:14 PM BST
Fallon said in his piece in the Weekender that he hit the front too early and it was because he was getting absolutely battered by the headwind that he appeared to hang so badly.
Report sintonian May 12, 2011 6:18 PM BST
There is no dount he is Ballydoyles No.1 contender for Epsom, but he has got to overcome his obvious quirks, and I say that as a 14/1 backer. I'd be happy if he made the frame to be honest as im not sure he'll get the trip with is running style etc.
Report unclepuncle May 12, 2011 10:06 PM BST
Place lay at even's for me.[;)]
Report Rondetto May 13, 2011 7:44 AM BST
After watching the Derrinstown I was left trying to make my mind up who looked most uncomfortable on the run to the line Fallon or the horse.

Horses can improve very quickly and you never know but as things stand after that performance I can see why Unclepuncle would lay him for a place.

Terrible head carriage and will absolutely hate Epsom. Surely they'll send him elsewhere?
Report duncan idaho May 13, 2011 8:13 AM BST
'Fallon said in his piece in the Weekender that he hit the front too early and it was because he was getting absolutely battered by the headwind that he appeared to hang so badly. '

Fallon says a lot of things [;)]
Report Ramruma May 13, 2011 12:59 PM BST
Nick Mordin is still a fan. He reckons Recital to win and Ballydoyle pacemaker Memphis Tennessee to place.
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle May 13, 2011 1:49 PM BST
Stoute and Moore going head to head down Epsom Downs drawing 10l clear of the rest and battling out a very ironic finish considering connections and previous historyLaugh
Report sintonian May 13, 2011 3:51 PM BST
For all that Recital is quirky etc and i'd be delighted with the place money, i'd still not want to lay him. The race is wide open and he is a very talented horse. He has won 3 from 4 starts which is something no other horse in the race has done.
Report cryoftruth May 13, 2011 7:25 PM BST

Since Mordin has decided that Recital will win he is almost certainly a place lay.

Maybe this is unkind. Mordin did get Frankel as sure to be beaten in the 2000 Guineas and opposed Workforce in the Arc with some second rate French horses, one of which does not actually get 12 furlongs. Perhaps he will get tired of being so very wrong so very often.
Report Tavaris Jackson May 13, 2011 9:17 PM BST
Yeah cot, Planteur looked really second rate in the Ganay.
One race doesn't prove anything. They're not machines.

Change the record.
Report eric_morris May 14, 2011 1:41 AM BST
Noble Prince was a cert for the Arkle according to Mordin. Great how people bring his word up everytime they dont have a clue themselves, a bit like him.
Report sintonian May 14, 2011 5:33 PM BST
I dont read Nick Mordin so cant vouch for this, but given he writes publicly and lets people know his views, I presume the one thing he does not do, like so many people on here, is aftertime.
Report unclepuncle May 14, 2011 7:50 PM BST
AIDAN O'Brien on Saturday advised punters to hold fire before backing either of his leading Investec Derby contenders Recital and Seville - second and third favourite behind Carlton House - as the stable's running plans have not been finalised.

"There are still three weeks until the Derby and we felt it important to reiterate that we have yet to decide exactly which horses will be heading to Epsom," said O'Brien. O'Brien added: "We are lucky to have several high-class three-year-old colts this year and it's likely we will also be represented in the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly.

"The horses have all come out of their races in good shape and we'll be talking over where they go in the coming days. We will make an announcement as soon as firmer running plans are in place."

O'Brien suggesting people hold their bets for Epsom as they haven't 100% decided which horses are going to Epsom and which might go for the French Derby. Might be a typical Ballydoyle smokescreen but if Pour Moi comes to Epsom I'd have thought Recital is much more likely to go to France (over 10f) than SevilleConfused
Report Viva Pataca May 14, 2011 8:12 PM BST
I can't imagine O'Brien sending his Derrinstown horse to Chantilly - they always go to Epsom.

I'm not convinced that Seville is this horse who needs a trip either, he just dosen't give his all in a finish. I think he is much more likely to go to France than Recital.
Report unclepuncle May 14, 2011 8:43 PM BST
Could the availability of Fallon or Ryan Moore be a key factor in deciding where recital goes - Moore obviously on Carlton House at Epsom and Fallon suppossed to have agreed to ride Native Khan? Both would presumably be available for Chantilly?
Report mightymoyes May 14, 2011 8:48 PM BST
you'd think fallon would only ride recital if o'brien told him he would get more group 1 rides for him. he wouldnt want to piss off dunlop.
Report sintonian May 15, 2011 3:55 PM BST
Jockey bookings wont dictate anything imo. More to do with suitability of races for said horses.

You wonder if Aidan may send one of Recital or Seville to France, with Pour Moi coming over here, particularly now Andre Fabre's Grand Vent got beaten today by Prarie Star, who himself had beaten Pour Moi previously.
Report Augustine May 15, 2011 6:19 PM BST
O'Brien last Sunday: "The Derby is the plan if all goes well with [Recital] between now and then."

O'Brien Thursday: "I was [Seville's] first run for a long time so we're delighted. If everything is well then Epsom is the next step."
Report Augustine May 15, 2011 6:19 PM BST
Report Steeplechasing May 21, 2011 8:06 PM BST
Recital the EW Derby value imo.  Think there is an awful lot more to come from him.
Report duncan idaho May 23, 2011 9:12 AM BST
''I'm not convinced that Seville is this horse who needs a trip either, he just dosen't give his all in a finish''

I think time will show you've got that badly wrong.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! May 23, 2011 8:29 PM BST
Noticed in todays times
Recital may come to Epsom


Report unclepuncle May 24, 2011 8:48 PM BST
When: 23 May 11 20:29
Noticed in todays times
Recital may come to Epsom

Yes but he's a lovely type who shows so much at home and they are keeping all options open to him and they may drop him in trip for the July Cup or maybe give him a sex change and then aim at the NassauCryCry
Report Tucho May 24, 2011 9:22 PM BST
the day AOB doesn't bring his derrinstown trial winner to epsom is the day to give up ante post betting on this mob
Report bestmate May 29, 2011 10:01 PM BST
Report smurf1 May 29, 2011 10:17 PM BST
will he handle the epsom course? will get 12f and has a nice turn of foot...
Report duncan idaho May 30, 2011 10:38 AM BST
doubt he'll get 12f
Report Figgis May 30, 2011 10:58 AM BST
My opinion, on the evidence so far, is Recital hasn't trained on. He ran a great time in heavy ground last year at Saint-Cloud, yet in both races this year he hasn't run any faster. Possibly excuses could be made for his first run this year but he had every opportunity last time. The race was set up for him to power away in a fast time, or at least win hard held. I'm sure some will argue that he's just a bit quirky and had loads in hand, maybe they're right, but it didn't appear that way to me.
Report Bullwinkle May 30, 2011 11:23 AM BST

CAn't have he hasn't trained on. He's won a G2 last time out. Crab his quirks but we have seen nothing this year that says he hasn't trained on. Every indication he is being brought along to match or surpass his G1 performance as a 2yo
Report Figgis May 30, 2011 11:31 AM BST
Bullwinkle, if a horse is very precocious/fast as a 2yo it is possible to win a 3yo group 2 race without making any improvement whatsoever.
Report jungleboogie May 30, 2011 12:39 PM BST
recital carried 6lb penalty in his 1st run this year when he got beaten
carried 3lb penalty last time out when he won
this horse has a touch of class,travels well,group1 form in the book and is improving at the right time
i think we'll all see the real recital this saturday.
Report jonibake May 30, 2011 1:48 PM BST
Can't see him finishing in the first 3. Much too quirky - Epsom on Derby Day? I don't think so.
Report Beryl May 30, 2011 2:29 PM BST
Fallon on Recital and also Wonder of Wonders!

I bet Ed Dunlop is delighted.
Report duncan idaho May 30, 2011 2:50 PM BST
'My opinion, on the evidence so far, is Recital hasn't trained on. He ran a great time in heavy ground last year at Saint-Cloud, yet in both races this year he hasn't run any faster. Possibly excuses could be made for his first run this year but he had every opportunity last time. The race was set up for him to power away in a fast time, or at least win hard held. I'm sure some will argue that he's just a bit quirky and had loads in hand, maybe they're right, but it didn't appear that way to me.'

Or maybe your timefigure for Saint-Cloud is bollox Laugh
Report Figgis May 30, 2011 3:08 PM BST
Well, that's always possible. Unlikely in this case though, unless every other horse on the card ran slower than expected. Bubble Chic and Prairie Star have already franked their figures. One thing is for certain, though, lack of stamina is not even a possibilty.
Report Tucho May 30, 2011 3:13 PM BST
yeah don't see how anybody can doubt the stamina if you are going on breeding

he ran a group 1 time last time out, in a headwind, and running into a rail

he's trained on, there's bags more to come from him, fallon was always desperate to ride him at epsom, the clues are mounting up, 7/1 can't last surely
Report smurf1 May 30, 2011 5:35 PM BST
does he need more cut in the ground? no rain forecast tuesday to friday although been raining at epsom for the last few hours
Report cryoftruth May 30, 2011 5:51 PM BST
Well KF struggled to keep Fido from smashing into the rail last time, and the time before he definitely didn't seem very keen on going past the others.

A great jockey though and since he chose him over an obvious danger, he must be respected.

A bad Derby though if such a complete hound were to win it.
Report Tavaris Jackson May 30, 2011 6:10 PM BST
4 runs, 3 wins including a G1 and G2.
Report Ruffian234 May 30, 2011 6:29 PM BST
Surely Memphis Tenessee could do well in this. Likely to be given a positive run as pacemaker of sorts and as Golden Sword and At First Sight showed it can be hard to peg them back. Put up a very respectable performance first time out this season and if was pushed on, in what would seem a non-vintage derby, the others may struggle to close the gap.

If you like Recital and his form then surely he has to be put under consideration?
Report duncan idaho May 30, 2011 7:34 PM BST
'yeah don't see how anybody can doubt the stamina if you are going on breeding'

really? his full brother was a keen goer (rather like Recital) and wasnt even tried at 12f as a result, while his half-brother Racinger (by Spectrum) excelled when dropped back to 1m having been tried over further.
Report secretgambler May 30, 2011 8:19 PM BST
The likely winner
Report cryoftruth May 30, 2011 8:26 PM BST
okay Tavaris I exaggerate to make a point.

However he is not straightforward. Straight after his defeat first time out this season  I thought he was ridden as if and behaved as if he was dodgy; hanging when asked to go past.

Next time out he won okay but not from great opposition and he really seemed to object being in the lead. Memphis Tennessee had run 81 the race before he was second to  Recital, and Regent Street (another dodgepot) was beaten 3 lengths and is only rated 81 or something.

That form is very dicey indeed. The Derby trial that Fido won was a real penalty kick and he couldn't really help but quicken up when asked. When he had done so he did hang into the rails and that's twice he has hung. He has had a few races so inexperience is wearing a bit thin as an excuse.

He is very talented (in my assessment almost certainly a group 1 talent) but he has very serious opponents and is going to have to battle to win the Derby. he has done a pretty fair impersonation of a horse that is not dead keen on battling.

I amy be wrong but a horse that isn't dead keen and one prone to hanging hard to the left is not likely to be well suited to the last 2 furlongs at Epsom.

Of course he could stuff these words down my throat with a battling effort on Saturday. I have saved on him as he cannot be discounted.

As I say though I would be sad for the Derby is a brute like this did the trick.

There have been many group 1 winners who barked though.
Report Far From Trouble May 30, 2011 8:26 PM BST
^ no need for the word likely there Blush
Report Far From Trouble May 30, 2011 8:26 PM BST
ffs cry Laugh
Report racingpoet May 30, 2011 8:51 PM BST
I like this horse and I backed him at the end of last season.

I'm worried however that he is not the most straightforward and both he and Seville have a high action and head carriage which may not suit coming down the hill and around Tattenham Corner.

That said, this fella has clearly got an engine and gears - Ryan Moore tried to come from a ridiculously far back in the Ballysax but the horse still made up a lot of ground. For me it is a major positive that Fallon is in the plate.

If he puts his mind to it and puts it all in without going through the rail he must be on the premises.
Report Ramruma May 31, 2011 7:04 AM BST
Tucho: "fallon was always desperate to ride him at epsom"

Fallon is a lousy judge imo but I suspect in this case the one he is desperate to ride is Wonder of Wonders in the Oaks, and that Recital is just a means to that end.
Report sintonian May 31, 2011 9:53 AM BST
There is the future to think about. If Fellon turns down Coolmore now in their hour of need when they need an experienced Jockey who rides Epsom well then he might just burn his bridges for good.

Personally, I find myself in the curious situation of having backed both Recital at 14/1 and Wonder of Wonders at 20/1 (posted on the Ante-Post thread), and I dont actually believe either of them will win. I'd just be happy picking up the place money.

I've added Seville to my bets and had a few quid Win only on Vadamar, more as a saver.
Report racingpoet June 1, 2011 5:29 PM BST
From ATR -

Kieren Fallon has been urged to play it cool in the Investec Derby - by the man who knows Recital as well as anyone.Leading French bloodstock agent Gilles Forien bred the highly-strung colt, on behalf of the Renee Geffroy and Caragh umbrella, before he was knocked down to Coolmore for 750,000 euros.

Many observers feel Recital will be ill at ease competing at Epsom, which is renowned for its unpredictable cambers, after he hung discernibly left when winning the Derrinstown Stud Trial in May. Forien does not prescribe to that theory, but feels Fallon needs to be more considered than at Leopardstown, when he made a winning move two furlongs from home - a fact the rider has since acknowledged after what was his first outing on the colt.

"We bred Recital and sold him in Deauville for top price, so I know a lot about him," said Forien.

"He is a very strong horse, but I am not worried about his attitude, or his ability - I am worried about how the horse will be ridden. He should be held up until the last furlong at the very earliest, otherwise I do not think he can win.

"If you come too strong with him halfway down the straight he will not be able to show his best form. He is a good horse and can win the Derby, but a lot will depend on Kieren Fallon. My instructions to him would be to leave it late."

Fallon, three times a winner of the Derby and an undisputed master of Epsom, has snubbed the Ed Dunlop-trained Native Khan in preference for Aidan O'Brien's colt.

Forien also has a vested interest in Dunlop's candidate as he, too, was reared by the Frenchman and his wife, Aliette.

"Native Khan is favourite horse of mine and I think he will be in the money if he stays a mile and a half," added Forien.

"He is a horse that will not disappoint."
Report cryoftruth June 1, 2011 6:48 PM BST
Choosing Fido over a non stayer was not exactly being spoilt for choice though was it?
Report racingpoet June 1, 2011 7:14 PM BST
I suspect that Monsieur Forien was laughing all the way to the bank having sold those two!
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle June 1, 2011 7:41 PM BST
Recital could go off favorite at this stage...5.8 now. May have to lay off now....if he gets down to 4.5 or so
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle June 1, 2011 7:42 PM BST
I could see Fallon do a Hurricane Run. Having him out the back and then stick to the inner and you his speed to go by the rags coming back and then just get their in the last furlong
Report Mr Mischief June 1, 2011 7:50 PM BST
Will go off Fav
Will win
Report racingpoet June 1, 2011 7:55 PM BST
I backed him at a big price thinking I would lay it off, but I'm starting to convince myself he could really win!
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle June 1, 2011 8:00 PM BST
I have 500 @ 16/1 early season. I am convinced he is the best horse in terms of talent but whether this Montjeu is ready to really click on Derby Day on his 5th run is open very much to debate for me. I think i be fairly stupid not to lay off at around 4 and maybe 700/800 quid risk free profit instead of 7k odd win. In the words of one of the greats. This is Squeaky Bum Time
Report Mr Mischief June 1, 2011 8:05 PM BST

In the words of another of the greats
'Greed is good'
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle June 1, 2011 8:06 PM BST
LaughLaugh Touche. But does Greed lead to the a massive boom to bustConfused
Report cryoftruth June 1, 2011 8:41 PM BST
Will continue to do as he has done -  bark all the way.

Oh yes

and lose
Report Tavaris Jackson June 1, 2011 8:44 PM BST
Its getting really irritating now COT.
How about leaving all the crowing about how much of a dog he is until after the race.
Report cryoftruth June 1, 2011 8:46 PM BST
What and get accused of after timing.

Okay I'll give it a rest for a while if its annoying.

To be honest he wins me a few hundred so its actually more of a p1ss take. I still would prefer one of the frenchmen.
Report Tavaris Jackson June 1, 2011 9:08 PM BST
I apologise for snapping, I shouldn't have.

Really respect Recitals chances and don't have a cent on him, only one in the race I've backed and that's Pour Moi before the Dante. If I could swap their names now I probably would.
Report sintonian June 2, 2011 3:38 PM BST
Date Joined: 22 Mar 04
Add contact | Send message When: 01 Jun 11 20:46 Joined: Date Joined: 22 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 1,286 | Blogger: cryoftruth's blog
What and get accused of after timing.
Okay I'll give it a rest for a while if its annoying.

To be honest he wins me a few hundred so its actually more of a p1ss take. I still would prefer one of the frenchmen.

Classic. Laugh
Report secretgambler June 2, 2011 5:25 PM BST
Cryoflies slates Recital as a dog but has still backed the dog...very strange, talk about covering your a'rs and not having the strength of your own convictions. I wonder whether to believe him or O'Brien who says he has brilliance...him decisions decisions lol
Report Graeme83 June 2, 2011 5:50 PM BST
It's hard to have strength in your own convictions when nobody tells you anything.
Report Tavaris Jackson June 2, 2011 6:21 PM BST
If we were told everything we'd have day of race prices for 2 months before any race.
Report Graeme83 June 2, 2011 6:27 PM BST
I never said 'everything'. I said 'anything'.
Report mightymoyes June 2, 2011 7:01 PM BST
haha bunch of w@nkers!![smiley:crazy]

A High Court judge is deciding whether Kieren Fallon can ride in Saturday's Investec Derby at Epsom.

Mr Justice MacDuff, sitting in London, has been urged to grant an injunction by the owners of 2000 Guineas third Native Khan, which would prevent Fallon taking part in the premier Classic.

They claim that three-time Derby winner Fallon has broken a "promise" to ride their horse and should be prevented from riding another in the race.

Fallon, who attended the court for Friday afternoon's hearing, denied breach of contract and said there has been an "innocent misunderstanding".

Lawyers for owner Ibrahim Araci argued that he had been "badly let down" by Fallon, who is set to partner Aidan O'Brien's Recital, whom he rode to win the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown.

Fallon guided the Ed Dunlop-trained Native Khan to victory in the Craven Stakes at Newmarket on his first start of the year.

Olivier Peslier rode the grey when he finished third in the Guineas behind Frankel as Fallon was suspended.

The judge will give his ruling in the morning.
Report Graeme83 June 2, 2011 7:11 PM BST
^^^ that's an insult to Johnny Murtagh. Nobody needs that kind of nonsense.
Report unclepuncle June 2, 2011 9:22 PM BST
I'd prefer Murtagh on board but I guess the owners are just p*ssed off that Fallon reneged on a gentlemans agreement - hope the high court ban him from the race and the police get their driving ban implemented on him tooLaugh
Report mightymoyes June 2, 2011 9:44 PM BST
they ban him, he appeals and rides recital until the appeal is heard next week when its too late.
Report cryoftruth June 2, 2011 10:22 PM BST
Its an interesting legal precedent, and not just for racing, although Piggott used to get off and on hoses according to their chance - however he was so much the best jockey ever he could get away with almost anything.

A mean how many footballers kiss the shirt badge an promise to stay and then leave their "forever club" or football managers who do the same, or F1 drivers etc etc.

However maybe it would be a good thing if Fallon lost the legal case. It might make the world of sport a rather more honest business, and make jockeys, players etc keep their word.

and that's not to say that Fallon made a promise to ride the grey in the Derby - only he and the owner maybe really know the answer to that question.
Report Tavaris Jackson June 2, 2011 10:33 PM BST
Whether or not he had made an agreement to ride he wasn't being paid a retainer to do so. It's surely his prerogative which horse he rides. Its in the interest of his career that he chooses the one he thinks has the better chance of winning and/or the one that gives him a better chance of future earnings.

Trying to stop him riding in the race is farcical, smacks of extremely sour grapes and is just plain bad sport. I hope its treated with the disdain it deserves in the courts.

If Fallon has broken a verbal contract then maybe if its provable he could be sued for some monetary figure which I'd imagine would be very hard to arrive at, but to stop him riding in the race would just be idiotic.
Report cryoftruth June 2, 2011 11:00 PM BST
secret gambler

you are a very rude person and its irksome to read such nasty things. Try being polite and we could discuss anything.

I try to use the Derby as a source of income in a small way. I have studied and followed hoses for nearly 40 years and understand breeding. I like to think I can spot a class horse too. This can give you a serious edge in a race like the Derby.

I will be quite honest and probably anoy sint (again) by saying what I have done this year - but its true and not for effect so I don't care anyhow. So with major risk of being accused of doing an Eric.....

i had a large win bet on Frankel for the Derby at 20/1. I have also had a pretty decent bet on Pour Moi at 20/1 and had a decent bet at 9/2 about Carlton. I have backed everything else in the Derby aside from the 2 rank outsiders and will have a couple of quid on each of them before the race. My only big ante post loser from  the decent bets I placed was on Dubai whathisname that was scratched a while ago before I could lay off a bean! The Derby has been very profitable this year; mainly because I had such a decent bet on Frankel I could lay all I needed at a shortish price to trade on the others with complete confidence.

Regards Recital, I did lay him for a while and also laid Seville as I did not imagine them as serious Derby types. Seville is just too stoutly bred and Recital seemed to like a bog. however I was simply not prepared to go into a Derby winning very well on nearly all the field, but losing heavily on the 2 that are 3rd and 4th favourites, both trained by a really superb trainer and both to be ridden by fine riders.

My opinion is that one (Seville) is a Leger type, and that the other (Recital) may be a bit dodgy, but more likely may need quite a bit of give in the ground.

However my opinion is also that this is a very very open Derby and although one will probably come through and will well and be hailed as champion, it is possible that the race might be an average Derby with quite a few fairly close up, including both Seville and Recital. So I might be right about both - they may be dodgy and a bit too slow, but either might be good enough to win this year. Despite the stuff about the promise etc, I think Fallon is still a great rider and is brilliant at riding Epsom - he might be worth a length to Recital.

So now all is done my best 3 winners in order are Pour Moi, Vadamar, Masked Marvel, then Carlton House and Recital. The only bet I am left to place is the forecast - Vadamar and Pour Moi. I think both are very interesting.

This is the rationale:
The Aiden horses are really only 2 with chances, one is dodgy/soft ground prefererence, and the other is slow and unlikely to reverse with Carlton house.
Carlton House may be brilliant and may win, but he has never run in a fast run race and is inexperienced.
Native Khan looks superficially as if he is bred to stay but having looked at his pedigree again, I think he will struggle to get home.

Masked Marvel is a fair price and is improving but this may just be a bit too soon for him.

The french hoses may be actually very good. They don't just fire horses at the Derby from France on the off chance and I think these two are likely to be classy horses. Of course they may hate Epsom and may be outpaced early as French horses often are at Epsom. But given the doubts about the others I like them best.

If I was really honest I must say I wouldn't much care what wins the Derby or Oaks if Midday stuffed St nick tomorrow. She is possibly my favourite ever racehorse. There is something about the timing of her emergence as a star that coincided with the return of Henry Cecil. She brought back all the memories of Indian Skimmer and Diminuendo -  both brilliant winners at the best meeting of the eyar - the Ebor Meeting.

In spite of all I genuinely wish you all the very best of luck.

Report sintonian June 3, 2011 7:37 PM BST
That's interesting, COT, i've done the same thing. Put Carlton House and the two french horses in combination forecasts/tricasts ,for a few quid only.

My actual bets in the race however are Recital, under ante-post rules at 14/1, with Seville and Vadamar, day of race markets.

Gl, and may the best dog/horse win!
Report cryoftruth June 3, 2011 7:46 PM BST
Laugh Thanks Sint

good luck to you too.

My last bet this morning were 2 £4 doubles on Dancing Rain and the 2 Frenchmen. I will definitely be opening some champagne if a french horse wins the Derby.

Report cryoftruth June 4, 2011 4:41 PM BST
Has Fido finished yet?
Report unclepuncle June 4, 2011 4:45 PM BST
Was he in the pink colours? If so he ran ok, but hung down the camber into the rail just like predicted.

Nice place lay for me though[;)]
Report jonibake June 4, 2011 4:46 PM BST
et moi aussi!
Report sintonian June 4, 2011 4:50 PM BST
His wayward tendencies will be less pronouncd with cut in the Ground.

As for callig him a dog, thats a bit pathetic imo. The horse has proven class and there been plenty like him the past.

Seville on the otherhand .. where did he finish ..
Report cryoftruth June 4, 2011 5:02 PM BST
Okay sint. I do think Recital needs a deal of give in the ground - if he gets this he might run straight. Often when a horse appears to bark, there is a physical explanation rather than a temperament problem.

Seville looked always like a horse without enough pace, but he does seem to have run appallingly.
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