Moonlight Cloud

not trained on or grown, so they say!

Moonlight Cloud is a lovely filly and won comfortably.  She proved today that she has trained on and goes to Newmarket with a great chance.  I'm sure that there is plenty of improvement in the runner-up, however, and I certainly wouldn't rule out the possibility that Helleborine will exact her revenge in the Guineas.  They're two smart fillies.

Gone in again on Moonlight Cloud after reviewing the race. She beat a good field comfortably there will start considerably shorter in the Guineas. Helleborine again doesnt the toe at the close as against Misty just dont think Newmarket will suit her perhaps they will go to France once they've realised how good the winner was there. A more positive ride she would beat these further next time imo.

Well, well...
The ultra shrewdie of the forum has clambered lazily onto a horse and well and truly missed the good prices.

That's how to make it pay, huh?

http://www.equidiavideo.fr/
Although you have to pay a small subscription (2 euros for 10 videos) you can watch the race as many times as you like for 24 hours...

jamesp     07 Apr 11 19:03 
http://www.equidiavideo.fr/
Although you have to pay a small subscription (2 euros for 10 videos) you can watch the race as many times as you like for 24 hours.


you can get unlimited for €30 cant you?

The race was shown live on RUK. The English commentator noted: "Moonlight Cloud has got first run", and to my eyes that's what happened. Allowed to dictate, and then quicken whilst Helleborine was switched, she certainly had the run of the race. That said, it was an impressive performance, but I'd prefer one or two others for Newmarket's 1000 Guineas.

Key to her success was being the best filly in the field imo. Helleborine had 2 cracks of the whip and didnt respond as well as Moonlight Cloud did to her 3. Moonlight was going away at the close.

jair1870 ... so you got lucky with a price idiot.

Key to her success was being the best filly in the field imo.

exactly eric.

also no one seems to have cttoned on to thew fact that w bassett beat her last year and so franked his 2000 chances.

this could be the 3rd french 1000 winner on the trot.

Trainer Freddie Head favouring English 1000 Guineas but needs to discuss with the owner first. Looking like Helleborine will be staying in France to avoid Moonlight Cloud as Mdm Head-Maarek cant see her turning around the form of the Imprudence. Very sensible decision Moonlight Cloud was going clear at the close before being eased down the gap would be likely to be much further at Newmarket where she will have a higher class of filly in opposition to test her more than Helleborine was capable of.

Yes, I agree with DD.  Although I thought the Prix Imprudence looked a strong trial on paper, it turned into a bit of a non-event due to the slow pace and some moderate fillies finished close up.  Moonlight Cloud has been allotted a Racing Post Rating of 97 (10lbs below her Lagardere performance last season), with Helleborine on just 92 (20lbs below her Boussac rating).  These ratings are based on the proximity in fourth place of Etive, who has been given the same rating as the one she achieved in a weak Listed race at Deauville last month.  Miss Fifty, who finished just a length behind Helleborine in the Imprudence, had been beaten six lengths by Helleborine in the Boussac.  The finishing position of the very modest Madly In Love, beaten just over five lengths, is another indication of the fragility of the form - this exposed maiden had been struggling in ordinary conditions races on the all-weather, beaten a similar margin by the likes of Venetien (23 Dec) and Cerveza (11 March).  The bare form of the Imprudence is very weak and Moonlight Cloud's credentials for the Guineas rest on her juvenile form and the demonstration of her well-being at Maisons-Laffitte the other day.

If Frankel steps up in trip perhaps Moonlight Cloud could end up the best of all ages at a mile in time? The English Guineas with a dominant performance why not?

An RPR of 115 has only been bettered only twice in the last ten runnings of the 1,000 by Finsceal Beo and Russian Rhyhthm. Moonlight Cloud recorded 107 when following home the Fahey horse and this is her best number in four starts. Helleborine, Hooray, Memory, Misty and White Moonstone have all run 111 or more (upto 117) as two year olds which suggests to me that we are in for a vintage renewal. Add to that Havant and Zoowraa have managed 103 and 102 respectively after only 2 starts each. As you say MC could be a v smart horse but she will definitely need to be in this field.

She reminds me of Natagora and I think she has an excellent chance of winning what looks an average 1,000 Guineas, but to suggest she is a superstar of Miesque proportions is unbelievably optimistic - don't forget she got stuffed by Wooton Basset and he is no superstar imo.

I really don't know why I keep rising to the bait... 

If you are considering solely the traditional three-year-old Guineas trials, then obviously nothing else has made an impression in a trial apart from Moonlight Cloud, but that's mainly because apart from the Imprudence we've only had the Nell Gwyn with Barefoot Lady's short head verdict over Sing Softly, which didn't exactly set the pulse racing!  If you look back to last season there are a number of performances that made a deep impression: White Moonstone was very impressive in the Sweet Solera and the May Hill and it would be folly to overlook her claims (regardless of Saeed Bin Suroor's recent early-season record); Misty For Me has plenty of speed in her pedigree so may not want to go further than a mile to 10f, she is top class and her form is rock solid; Memory made a huge impression in the Cherry Hinton and if back to that kind of form will be hard to beat in the Guineas if she gets the longer trip (which seems quite possible on pedigree); Hooray wouldn't need to improve on her Cheveley Park performance to win the Guineas, the big doubt about her is whether she has trained on and whether she will get the mile; the claims of Helleborine have been set out on the other thread.

I agree that Moonlight Cloud looked very good in the Imprudence but it was no more than I would have expected against the likes of Miss Fifty and Madly In Love.  (For whatever reason there is no doubt at all that Helleborine ran well below her best, so you can't use her as a yardstick.)  She is hugely promising but she still has a lot to prove (in my opinion).  She has won easily in three of her four races, beating mainly quite ordinary horses in slowly-run races (three furlong sprints for the most part), but she was beaten in her only top-flight race (the Lagardere).  We have yet to see whether she can quicken so effectively off a faster pace.

Let it go James.

With the Guineas approaching, I thought I would wade in with my view. As a general rule, I tend to stay away from RP ratings when I approach any race, particularly with 3yo filles. According to the RP, Jacqueline Quest improved a full 20lbs last year when finishing first past the post in the 1000 Guineas. Interestingly, Timeform have alloted MC a rating of 112p on the back of its Imprudence performance, 1lbs higher than Helleborine achieved in the Boussac, and 3lbs off White Moonstone (who also has a "p").

So we can see from the off a massive discrepancy with regards to how how some established judges have rated the form. On the issue of the proximity of supposedly bad horses to the front two, well that's an obvious scenario resulting from a slow early pace. The fact that MC was able to put a full two lengths (eased down near the finish and certainly not stopping) between herself and Helleborine off such a "slow" pace gives the performance even more credit in my opinion. Generally sprint finishes result in smaller winning distances due to bunched finishes. This means that we know that she possesses a serious turn of foot, the kind of acceleration associated only with very fast/good horses.

According to Nick Mordin (who I am not a great fan of but at least does use sectional timing) MC covered the last quarter mile "1.1 seconds faster than the colts in the Prix Djebel and 1.5 seconds quicker than they went in the fastest of the two six furlong handicaps on the card". So she's fast on the clock in that respect. Whether or not she could produce that off an end to end gallop at Newmarket (which is far from guaranteed anyway) is another story, but as long as she travelled well enough throughout the race and took the preliminaries in well, I fail to see why she wouldn't. We already know that if nothing else is willing to make the pace, then Bonilla could easily go to the front and try to dictate things. 

Another issue is the supposedly bad run in against the colts at Longchamp. I'm completely of the opinion that MC hated the ground. I'm no expert on pedigree but I was always taught that Invincible Spirits, as a general rule, are better on faster ground. And with her leg speed and fast action I would fully expect improvement for the likely fast going at Newmarket. She was sent off favourite that day and my analysis is you can almost draw a line through it, even though it was a very encouraging run.

On the issue of whether Helleborine would reverse placings in a rematch at Newmarket then I would highly doubt it. Yes, Helleborine is a good filly trained by one of the great trainers, but she was expected to win the Imprudence and the trainer (after initially saying the winner was fitter) has subsequently come out and said she wants to avoid her brothers horse. That kind of comment, in my experience, from such a trainer is damning. She would not be 20/1 on the day because anyone willing to lay 20/1 on a Head-Maarek Filly at Newmarket in May is mad. But she, in my opinion, would start around twice the price of MC.

I have backed both filles for the Guineas but am far more confident with MC (even allowing for the big doubts about Helleborines participation, and indeed MCs). What we do know is she retains the acceleration she showed as a juvenile, is held in the highest regard by her excellent trainer, is trained in France, and won the Prix Imprudence, a key trial. Every single one of these factors point towards a big Guineas run. I hope she turns up and if she does she is surely no worse than a 4/1 shot.

Antepost is about the future not the past, spotting improvers which is probably why you are sh1t at it.

I much prefer Fillies to have had a run before the guineas than turn up and try to win first time out. Not sure if there are any stats to back it up but from a betting perspective that is what i look for. Ghanaati was certainly one to win first time out though. I would suggest it is easier for colts to win 2000 their first run of the season as they are generally easier to train imo.

fuzzyone, in the last 20 years eight fillies won the Guineas on their seasonal debut (i.e. without taking in a prep race), six won a prep race and six were beaten in a prep race.  The stats don't really help find the winner.  (Incidentally, two of those fillies that were beaten in a prep race were trained by Criquette Head-Maarek.)

The point I was trying to make, which eric clearly rejects, is that Moonlight Cloud was winning minor races last year in hugely impressive fashion, showing tons of speed and a superb turn of foot, and she hasn't necessarily improved over the winter.  The ability has always been there.  It would be folly, in my opinion, to use the Imprudence as unambiguous evidence that Moonlight Cloud is improving or that Helleborine is standing still relative to her two-year-old form.  Don't forget either that Helleborine reportedly hated the ground on Arc day and still ran a much better race than Moonlight Cloud did in the Lagardere. 

I am completely open-minded about which of these two smart fillies would come out on top if they were both to run in the Guineas.  Helleborine showed a lot of speed last year, beating the Prix Morny-placed Pontenuouvo first time out over 6f, coupled with an amazing turn of foot (watch her performances in the Prix Six Perfections and Prix d'Aumale), and yet she also stayed on well in very testing ground over a mile on her final start in the Boussac, again showing excellent acceleration to make up several lengths in the straight.  Helleborine is a good physical specimen and is bred to improve from two to three (like her sister African Rose) and I'd be surprised if she has failed to train on.  It is patently obvious that Helleborine ran a long way below her best in the Imprudence unless you accept the counter-argument that the seemingly exposed maiden Miss Fifty has improved by about a stone relative to Helleborine since they met in the Boussac.  If the Imprudence had not been a slowly-run tactical affair, if Helleborine had not been short of room at a crucial moment, if Helleborine had not been eased once her chance of winning had gone, if Moonlight Cloud had won by five lengths in a truly-run race, then I would concur with eric and we wouldn't be having this discussion!

Finally, there is still a slight doubt in my mind whether Moonlight Cloud will get a truly-run mile in top company.  Invincible Spirit's best female progeny in Europe have mostly been very fast (Fleeting Spirit, Hooray, Bahama Mama, Invincible Ash, Glamorous Spirit et al) and that final furlong of the Rowley Mile will be unknown territory until she actually gets there.  I cannot accept the slowly-run Prix Imprudence as proof that she will definitely get the mile - it was, after all, in effect just a sprint race.  On balance, I think she's more likely to get the mile than not get the mile, but it's not something one could be certain about at this stage.