Moonlight Cloud

not trained on or grown, so they say!

according to her trainer, she loved the straight track and will now go to the 1000 Gns (May 1).

Moonlight Cloud is a lovely filly and won comfortably.  She proved today that she has trained on and goes to Newmarket with a great chance.  I'm sure that there is plenty of improvement in the runner-up, however, and I certainly wouldn't rule out the possibility that Helleborine will exact her revenge in the Guineas.  They're two smart fillies.

Damn knew should have taken the 20s. Taken 8s to go with 12s Havant against the field.

Gone in again on Moonlight Cloud after reviewing the race. She beat a good field comfortably there will start considerably shorter in the Guineas. Helleborine again doesnt the toe at the close as against Misty just dont think Newmarket will suit her perhaps they will go to France once they've realised how good the winner was there. A more positive ride she would beat these further next time imo.

eric, where did you see the race ?

Well, well...
The ultra shrewdie of the forum has clambered lazily onto a horse and well and truly missed the good prices.

That's how to make it pay, huh?

Cant find a replay anywhere at the moment. Will keep my cash in my pocket for now. Criqutte of the opinion jer brothers horse is fitter which will suffice for now until i've seen a damn s0dding replay!

http://www.equidiavideo.fr/
Although you have to pay a small subscription (2 euros for 10 videos) you can watch the race as many times as you like for 24 hours...

The winner was given a couple of cracks with the whip, the runner-up was just pushed out with hands and heels.  Both fillies were eased towards the finish.  I doubt if there will be much between them next time.  They're both good enough to win an average Guineas, in my opinion, although there are slight doubts about either of them getting a truly-run mile in Group 1 company.

jamesp     07 Apr 11 19:03 
http://www.equidiavideo.fr/
Although you have to pay a small subscription (2 euros for 10 videos) you can watch the race as many times as you like for 24 hours.


you can get unlimited for €30 cant you?

Yes, you can get unlimited access for 3 months for €30 (if you're likely to use it a lot).

The race was shown live on RUK. The English commentator noted: "Moonlight Cloud has got first run", and to my eyes that's what happened. Allowed to dictate, and then quicken whilst Helleborine was switched, she certainly had the run of the race. That said, it was an impressive performance, but I'd prefer one or two others for Newmarket's 1000 Guineas.

key to her success was making a quick getaway and cutting across from her middle draw to get to the front on the rail.

Key to her success was being the best filly in the field imo. Helleborine had 2 cracks of the whip and didnt respond as well as Moonlight Cloud did to her 3. Moonlight was going away at the close.

jair1870 ... so you got lucky with a price idiot.

By the way Havant might win the Guineas yet though I can see Moonlight being the one.

Key to her success was being the best filly in the field imo.

exactly eric.

also no one seems to have cttoned on to thew fact that w bassett beat her last year and so franked his 2000 chances.

this could be the 3rd french 1000 winner on the trot.

Not much 8s left just a tenner available with the Toat.

Trainer Freddie Head favouring English 1000 Guineas but needs to discuss with the owner first. Looking like Helleborine will be staying in France to avoid Moonlight Cloud as Mdm Head-Maarek cant see her turning around the form of the Imprudence. Very sensible decision Moonlight Cloud was going clear at the close before being eased down the gap would be likely to be much further at Newmarket where she will have a higher class of filly in opposition to test her more than Helleborine was capable of.

I fully agree with the bit about facing a higher class of opposition than the desperate bunch who still managed to finish within a few lengths of MC & H is true.

Just about everything else is opinion, not facts.

Yes, I agree with DD.  Although I thought the Prix Imprudence looked a strong trial on paper, it turned into a bit of a non-event due to the slow pace and some moderate fillies finished close up.  Moonlight Cloud has been allotted a Racing Post Rating of 97 (10lbs below her Lagardere performance last season), with Helleborine on just 92 (20lbs below her Boussac rating).  These ratings are based on the proximity in fourth place of Etive, who has been given the same rating as the one she achieved in a weak Listed race at Deauville last month.  Miss Fifty, who finished just a length behind Helleborine in the Imprudence, had been beaten six lengths by Helleborine in the Boussac.  The finishing position of the very modest Madly In Love, beaten just over five lengths, is another indication of the fragility of the form - this exposed maiden had been struggling in ordinary conditions races on the all-weather, beaten a similar margin by the likes of Venetien (23 Dec) and Cerveza (11 March).  The bare form of the Imprudence is very weak and Moonlight Cloud's credentials for the Guineas rest on her juvenile form and the demonstration of her well-being at Maisons-Laffitte the other day.

Reviewed the race again laast night, think Moonlight Cloud is special, agree with the trainer when he has compared her to the greats he has been associated with.

Tremendous acceleration going away at the close and still had a couple of gears left imo. Really looking forward to her taking Newmarket by storm on a quick ground the straight mile again agree with Freddie Head, Moonlight Cloud will love it, definitely the most likely 1000 Guineas winner for me.

If Frankel steps up in trip perhaps Moonlight Cloud could end up the best of all ages at a mile in time? The English Guineas with a dominant performance why not?

She may well be good enough to win the Guineas and win it well, but we simply don't know at this stage.  I don't see how you can possibly draw any firm conclusions from the Imprudence performance other than the fact that Moonlight Cloud showed excellent acceleration from the front off a slow pace.  She has probably done more on the home gallops.  Her defeat in the Lagardere last season must be a concern, although to be fair she probably hated the sticky ground (as Helleborine did in the Boussac).

An RPR of 115 has only been bettered only twice in the last ten runnings of the 1,000 by Finsceal Beo and Russian Rhyhthm. Moonlight Cloud recorded 107 when following home the Fahey horse and this is her best number in four starts. Helleborine, Hooray, Memory, Misty and White Moonstone have all run 111 or more (upto 117) as two year olds which suggests to me that we are in for a vintage renewal. Add to that Havant and Zoowraa have managed 103 and 102 respectively after only 2 starts each. As you say MC could be a v smart horse but she will definitely need to be in this field.

She looks v good nothing has created that impression on me in any trial with regards the 1000 Guineas. There are some who may lack a bit of toe such as Misty For Me, some that may not have trained on or be forward enough the Godolphin filly White Moonstone perhaps, and some that may not see a mile as their best trip .. Hooray and Memory. Havant may be best at further the Oaks could see her and Misty For Me to better effect.

Would see Moonlight Cloud as a strong traveller with gears who will love the mile based on the Imprudence she was just getting into 2nd top gear when the race was over another furlong and she would have run away from the Imprudence field after just reviewing it again.

She reminds me of Natagora and I think she has an excellent chance of winning what looks an average 1,000 Guineas, but to suggest she is a superstar of Miesque proportions is unbelievably optimistic - don't forget she got stuffed by Wooton Basset and he is no superstar imo.

Really great having Frankel and Moonlight Cloud to look forward to in the coming weeks. Lets hope they do fulfill their apparent potential talent.

I really don't know why I keep rising to the bait... 

If you are considering solely the traditional three-year-old Guineas trials, then obviously nothing else has made an impression in a trial apart from Moonlight Cloud, but that's mainly because apart from the Imprudence we've only had the Nell Gwyn with Barefoot Lady's short head verdict over Sing Softly, which didn't exactly set the pulse racing!  If you look back to last season there are a number of performances that made a deep impression: White Moonstone was very impressive in the Sweet Solera and the May Hill and it would be folly to overlook her claims (regardless of Saeed Bin Suroor's recent early-season record); Misty For Me has plenty of speed in her pedigree so may not want to go further than a mile to 10f, she is top class and her form is rock solid; Memory made a huge impression in the Cherry Hinton and if back to that kind of form will be hard to beat in the Guineas if she gets the longer trip (which seems quite possible on pedigree); Hooray wouldn't need to improve on her Cheveley Park performance to win the Guineas, the big doubt about her is whether she has trained on and whether she will get the mile; the claims of Helleborine have been set out on the other thread.

I agree that Moonlight Cloud looked very good in the Imprudence but it was no more than I would have expected against the likes of Miss Fifty and Madly In Love.  (For whatever reason there is no doubt at all that Helleborine ran well below her best, so you can't use her as a yardstick.)  She is hugely promising but she still has a lot to prove (in my opinion).  She has won easily in three of her four races, beating mainly quite ordinary horses in slowly-run races (three furlong sprints for the most part), but she was beaten in her only top-flight race (the Lagardere).  We have yet to see whether she can quicken so effectively off a faster pace.

There is no bait to rise to as we are looking at horses who are either improving or standing still from 2 years to 3.

The aim is to find a future champion we know that Moonlight Cloud is much the most impressive trial winner so far the trainer thinks she is special, so do I. Mdm Head agrees Moonlight looks v good I think the only bait here is seeing a horse being discussed who looks to have trained on tremendously having antepost projections made re her Guineas chances on an antepost forum. The past is gone the future we will see a Champion who will have improved from 2 to 3 imo. That horse looks like being Moonlight Cloud.

Let it go James.

We agreed Special Duty was the one last season for the 1000 Guineas and were both correct, I also backed her the French dont think you did, however we cant agree all the time.

I am strongly in the Moonlight Cloud camp having watched the Imprudence over and over again .... she won very easily and was eased before even getting near top gear and another furlong would have been well clear. The ground wont be an issue at Newmarket she will love that as the trainer has pointed out.

With the Guineas approaching, I thought I would wade in with my view. As a general rule, I tend to stay away from RP ratings when I approach any race, particularly with 3yo filles. According to the RP, Jacqueline Quest improved a full 20lbs last year when finishing first past the post in the 1000 Guineas. Interestingly, Timeform have alloted MC a rating of 112p on the back of its Imprudence performance, 1lbs higher than Helleborine achieved in the Boussac, and 3lbs off White Moonstone (who also has a "p").

So we can see from the off a massive discrepancy with regards to how how some established judges have rated the form. On the issue of the proximity of supposedly bad horses to the front two, well that's an obvious scenario resulting from a slow early pace. The fact that MC was able to put a full two lengths (eased down near the finish and certainly not stopping) between herself and Helleborine off such a "slow" pace gives the performance even more credit in my opinion. Generally sprint finishes result in smaller winning distances due to bunched finishes. This means that we know that she possesses a serious turn of foot, the kind of acceleration associated only with very fast/good horses.

According to Nick Mordin (who I am not a great fan of but at least does use sectional timing) MC covered the last quarter mile "1.1 seconds faster than the colts in the Prix Djebel and 1.5 seconds quicker than they went in the fastest of the two six furlong handicaps on the card". So she's fast on the clock in that respect. Whether or not she could produce that off an end to end gallop at Newmarket (which is far from guaranteed anyway) is another story, but as long as she travelled well enough throughout the race and took the preliminaries in well, I fail to see why she wouldn't. We already know that if nothing else is willing to make the pace, then Bonilla could easily go to the front and try to dictate things. 

Another issue is the supposedly bad run in against the colts at Longchamp. I'm completely of the opinion that MC hated the ground. I'm no expert on pedigree but I was always taught that Invincible Spirits, as a general rule, are better on faster ground. And with her leg speed and fast action I would fully expect improvement for the likely fast going at Newmarket. She was sent off favourite that day and my analysis is you can almost draw a line through it, even though it was a very encouraging run.

On the issue of whether Helleborine would reverse placings in a rematch at Newmarket then I would highly doubt it. Yes, Helleborine is a good filly trained by one of the great trainers, but she was expected to win the Imprudence and the trainer (after initially saying the winner was fitter) has subsequently come out and said she wants to avoid her brothers horse. That kind of comment, in my experience, from such a trainer is damning. She would not be 20/1 on the day because anyone willing to lay 20/1 on a Head-Maarek Filly at Newmarket in May is mad. But she, in my opinion, would start around twice the price of MC.

I have backed both filles for the Guineas but am far more confident with MC (even allowing for the big doubts about Helleborines participation, and indeed MCs). What we do know is she retains the acceleration she showed as a juvenile, is held in the highest regard by her excellent trainer, is trained in France, and won the Prix Imprudence, a key trial. Every single one of these factors point towards a big Guineas run. I hope she turns up and if she does she is surely no worse than a 4/1 shot.

Interesting diversity in betting styles here, some just back hunches or whatever has impressed in the latest trial whilst others spend an autumn and winter painstakingly compiling all available information in order to have the maximum possible chance of making the best and most informed decision.

Bravo for hard work.

Antepost is about the future not the past, spotting improvers which is probably why you are sh1t at it.

It isnt about writing essays either. Judgement takes few words as antepost is about many things but it is an art also ... past ratings we would all be millionaire's if they decided the future especially with horses going from 2 to 3 years many of whom dont train on/stand still.

I much prefer Fillies to have had a run before the guineas than turn up and try to win first time out. Not sure if there are any stats to back it up but from a betting perspective that is what i look for. Ghanaati was certainly one to win first time out though. I would suggest it is easier for colts to win 2000 their first run of the season as they are generally easier to train imo.

Excellent perspective POIntgiven.

fuzzyone, in the last 20 years eight fillies won the Guineas on their seasonal debut (i.e. without taking in a prep race), six won a prep race and six were beaten in a prep race.  The stats don't really help find the winner.  (Incidentally, two of those fillies that were beaten in a prep race were trained by Criquette Head-Maarek.)

The point I was trying to make, which eric clearly rejects, is that Moonlight Cloud was winning minor races last year in hugely impressive fashion, showing tons of speed and a superb turn of foot, and she hasn't necessarily improved over the winter.  The ability has always been there.  It would be folly, in my opinion, to use the Imprudence as unambiguous evidence that Moonlight Cloud is improving or that Helleborine is standing still relative to her two-year-old form.  Don't forget either that Helleborine reportedly hated the ground on Arc day and still ran a much better race than Moonlight Cloud did in the Lagardere. 

I am completely open-minded about which of these two smart fillies would come out on top if they were both to run in the Guineas.  Helleborine showed a lot of speed last year, beating the Prix Morny-placed Pontenuouvo first time out over 6f, coupled with an amazing turn of foot (watch her performances in the Prix Six Perfections and Prix d'Aumale), and yet she also stayed on well in very testing ground over a mile on her final start in the Boussac, again showing excellent acceleration to make up several lengths in the straight.  Helleborine is a good physical specimen and is bred to improve from two to three (like her sister African Rose) and I'd be surprised if she has failed to train on.  It is patently obvious that Helleborine ran a long way below her best in the Imprudence unless you accept the counter-argument that the seemingly exposed maiden Miss Fifty has improved by about a stone relative to Helleborine since they met in the Boussac.  If the Imprudence had not been a slowly-run tactical affair, if Helleborine had not been short of room at a crucial moment, if Helleborine had not been eased once her chance of winning had gone, if Moonlight Cloud had won by five lengths in a truly-run race, then I would concur with eric and we wouldn't be having this discussion!

Finally, there is still a slight doubt in my mind whether Moonlight Cloud will get a truly-run mile in top company.  Invincible Spirit's best female progeny in Europe have mostly been very fast (Fleeting Spirit, Hooray, Bahama Mama, Invincible Ash, Glamorous Spirit et al) and that final furlong of the Rowley Mile will be unknown territory until she actually gets there.  I cannot accept the slowly-run Prix Imprudence as proof that she will definitely get the mile - it was, after all, in effect just a sprint race.  On balance, I think she's more likely to get the mile than not get the mile, but it's not something one could be certain about at this stage.

POintgiven, thanks for passing on the Timeform ratings, which I hadn't seen.  I'm not sure how Timeform calculate their ratings these days, but it's hard to work out how they can justify such a lofty rating based on the Imprudence performance.  The winning time was slow allowing for the conditions (2.5 seconds slower than Elusive Wave's winning time two years ago on softer ground, for example) and the overall form, using some of the beaten fillies as a guide, doesn't stack up.  The sectional times are interesting though.  It will be fascinating to see whether Moonlight Cloud can quicken so impressively off a faster pace against the likes of White Moonstone, Memory, Hooray, Havant et al.

the trouble with people like Eric Morris, James, is that once their money is on they wont hear of defeat. The thought of it gives them pulpatations. I offered Eric £500 charity challenges many times, just to see if he is a bluffer  (I believe he is), but he bottles it.

So in short, dont raise to his bait, because his record is patchy to say the least.

He recently backed Havant after Stoute was in the morning paper, he then backed Recital after what Jim McGrath said on the morning line, and he backed Moonlight Cloud after her Imprudence win and cried, like all good guessers, ''I wish I had taken the 20's''.

The timing is not coincidental. It's blatant, to me.

I seem to recall that ben10 (whatever happened to him?!) and I were raving about Moonlight Cloud as long ago as last September, when the filly was (however briefly) available to back for the Guineas at 40/1.  I was already firmly in the Helleborine camp by then but the potential of Moonlight Cloud was there for all to see.  Eric and I will have to agree to disagree, and we'll see what happens in the Guineas.  I just hope that Criquette is sufficiently impressed by Helleborine in the next week or two to let her take her chance at Newmarket.

james I'm sure Moonlight Cloud has immense potential. You and others tend to place too much emphasis on ratings when they are basically an opinion. They are an opinion based on past facts which will in improving horses from 2 to 3 be overwritten after the next outing of the biggest improvers. Therefore the ratings are after-timing opinions which do not predict future improvement.

Antepost is about predicting which horses will improve the most from 2 to 3 in the Classics ... simple as. If you gave me a very good ratings figure for Moonlight Cloud as  POintgiven did above which is better than anything Helleborine has achieved that is also a different after-timed opinion. Nothing sways my opinion for FUTURE improvement other than what I see with my own eyes after many years of watching Classic horses develop into Champions. Ratings experts wouldnt be ratings experts if they were any good at predicting the future otherwise they would be on a beach in Barbados instead of after-timing results.

They have a great chance of winning the French 1000 with Helleborine any decent she has raced has beaten her. However they will be running in the English 1000 Guineas out of her way. Bad advice to Mdm Head to suit your antepost position imo.

I spotted Moonlight Cloud last season also however I typically leave my 1000 positions later than 2000. I never fancied Helleborine who you championed early and never backed her. I have however stepped in now as 8/1 Moonlight Cloud was tremendous value for a horse with such immense potential as summarized brilliantly by POintgiven above.

I have no time for sintonian he is a troublemaker on here with little antepost knowledge/ability and is blocked by me.

Incidentally JamesP I have asked Betfair re being allowed to block certain posters/stalkers from reading my posts. This would improve the forum massively and prevent stalkers coming onto threads to cause arguments/trouble ... no reply from them yet. That would allow myself and others to hold good discussions with excellent posters like yourself instead of having to fend off idiots all the time who hate it when I get it right so often and they dont hardly ever get it right.

Eric can definitely spot those improvers  - who can forget the mighty Steinbeck

Though of course he only failed to win the triple crown because of injury and Ballydoyle politics)

Also I've scoured the Helleborine and 1,000 Guineas threads and can't find you mentioning Moonlight Cloud at al - White Moonstone and Misty For Me, and then Havant a few weeks back. Can you show us where you 'spotted' Moonlight Cloud last season or is that just more blatant aftertiming

It is excellent after all these years all you can find is an injured horse who missed the Guineas and whose development was stunted most of his early career. I take that as a compliment. I pointed out St Nick wouldnt win the Guineas.

Anyway I shouldnt have to defend myself against an idiot like you. Being good at this is bad on here now Betfair have to do something to allow posters to block stalkers from reading their posts. You, sintonian and zilzal1 would be the first to go on my list.

You love me really Eric

There are undoubtedly a few troublemakers on here from time to time (I wouldn't know about 'stalkers'), but I certainly wouldn't place sintonian in that category.  He has made a lot of sensible contributions to the forum and I respect his opinion (not just, I might add, because we happen to agree about the overstatement of the case in favour of Moonlight Cloud over the claims of Helleborine).  In any case, I'm sure we're all big enough to cope with some robust debate (within the Betfair rules, of course).

I'll be reasonably happy with a Moonlight Cloud win in the Guineas, having backed her antepost last September.  I have been betting on the classics for over twenty years and I place much more weight on trends (particularly juvenile form) than on ratings, which are, as you say, just one person's interpretation of past events.  I have learned to pay relatively little attention to three-year-old trial race results in April, as the form can often be very unreliable.  I'm not saying that the Imprudence result will necessarily prove unreliable, merely that it should be treated with a certain amount of caution rather than accepted entirely at face value.

Just block them and give us all peace Eric. You're acting like a big girls blouse. Or maybe you can just face the fact that you can't do without these people you argue with.

^ Nail On Head

I have asked Betfair to allow posters to block specific forumites from reading your contributions ... the reverse of the current setup. That is the only way the stalking problems will be solved on here.

JamesP resorting to siding with my stalkers wont get you a run with Helleborine she has no chance based on her runs so far where anything decent she has raced has beaten her. Up your stake on Moonlight Cloud is my advice.

the thing is eric, a lot of us have taken some of the 8/1 on MC anyway, either as a cover bet, or a bit more. We're not silly and fully respect her chance.

And some people who are clearly much shrewder than our Eric backed MC at 20/1+  - they didn't have to wait until the evidence was put right in front of their noses before opening their wallets (or in Eric's case getting his dad to put his pocket money on it)

Thanks for the earlier reply JAMESP. The consensus seems to be a French winner again lol

I spotted Moonlight Cloud last season

And waited til this season to back in at much reduced odds.  Thankyou Timeform Eric for your expert opinion.
And he wonders why people think he's a clueless guesser who only ever jumps on the nearest bandwagon and miraculously achieves huge odds on favourites time and again.

Blocking all your 'stalkers' will leave you sat in front of a blank screen arguing with yourself.  And the only one who throws out abuse is yourself.  Blocking isn't the answer.  There's far too much entertainment to be had here...

Moonlight Cloud taken over favouritism for the 1000 Guineas on here now.

Helleborine very unlikely to go for the English 1000 according to Teddy Grimphorpe interviewed today, last matched 36 on here now 40 offered, Mdm Head-Maarek thinking she needs more time.

Moonlight Cloud would destroy her even further at Newmarket and probably others too sensible to go French Guineas with her.