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On face value Medermit's run not the best sign but today he faced 2 race fit rivals, Somersby off levels and receiving 4 pounds from MM. Captain Chris was going to give him 6 pounds and a beating and wasn't fit. I would obviously be more worried about Long Run. Was a very decent effort today. I thought he was going to get left behind a mile out but he plugged on nicely and I am sure he will come on for it a lot. No, I dare say the presence of LR, Kauto and MM ensures he goes off a nice price.
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Medermit was surely as race fit today as MM and Somersby?
If I'd backed Capt Chris (which I haven't) I'd be at least as worried by how close Medermit was to Cornas at Exeter (and CC would only have beaten him a few lengths if he'd stood up). I haven't seen anything from last year's nvoices yet to suggest they can touch Kauto/Demnan/Long Run etc over 3 m. Medermit and Time for Rupert today were both seriously outclassed. I agree about LR - I think he'll improve a stone on todays performance so still the one to beat. |
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My point was that Chris wasn't fit last time, whereas Medermit's opponents today were.
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On Somersby ew at 20/1 for the KG but will definitely be covering with Capt Chris on the day. 2m clearly on the sharp side for CC even as a novice and you'd like to think 3m round (r'handed) Kempton will be right up his street. If they all turn up fit and well should be one of the best King George's in years.
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Hey, Sint, I agree with your fitness angle for Long Run.
Im just a little concerned the Betfair chase may have left its mark. Sam asked alot of the horse, who responded willingly and has guts, which is good to know for the future!. Many horses have bounced after a race like that. Imperial Commander Springs to mind! Keeping the thread on Captain Chris. This is all be good news for his chances, but unfortunately he is not my idea of the King George winner. Its between Long Run and Kauto. Maybe Mastermind if he stays. The proper multiple Grade 1 winners. Maybe Occams Razor should be applied to the circumstance. So bearing in mind the most recent form is Kauto Star beating Long Run and the new pretenders; and is going back to his beloved Kempton, with optimum conditions. Surely we would be following our hearts and our heads and getting value at the same time when we back him?! It would be emotional!! |
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On reflection, it's possible the Gold Cup left its mark on Long Run as well. Guess we'll find out on Boxing Day.
Lacson made an excellent post about this on p.2 of the Gold Cup 2012 thread on the Cheltenham board. I quote, "Most pundits seem to think that Long Run will improve past Kauto - I'm not so sure." "Of the two, I would say that Long Run had the harder race (much more so than in the Paddy Power last year) and I would not be surprised if he flops in the King George. Kauto has twice experienced hard fought Betfair chases (Imperial Commander and Exotic Dancer) followed 5 weeks later by wins in the Gold Cup, the last one in 2009 when he won by a distance. Each of IC and Ex D were well beaten when they ran again in the King George against KS (and ditto if you add in the year he fell in the Betfair against taminrbleu and Snoopy Loopy - both of these were thrashed in the subsequent KG). The other point to note is that Kauto jumped the last fence only 2 lengths clear of Long Run but by the line had extended the distance to 8 lengths - he wasn't stopping. Food for thought?" |
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kauto is a very special animal, and Nicholls said he was strolling round the winners enclosure after winning the Betfair not looking like he'd had a race.
The negative being he was trained to the button. You could also see in Nicholls eye that he wasnt sure about getting Kauto to the King George in the right condition. I also factor the jockeyship in. Ruby is simply the best. He will send Kauto off in front and dictate the race, which is his best chance I feel. It all adds upto a fascinating race! |
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Kauto is most certainly the value bet
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Nearly time for part 1!
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