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What a Friend, Grand National
What a Friend, Grand National
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Replies: 178
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it doesnt say there that it was run over shorter. maybe it was, i didnt hear about it but it doesnt say it there
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a few points i would like to make though i am no expert. one/ the blinkers do not always have the same effect on a horse such as w/a/f on his subsequent outing.two he may be a bit young for the race.three i think the national with 40 runners is a race where a horse does need to know what is happening all around him the blinkers may well be a hinderance to him after all it is very rare for a horse to win the g/n wearing blinkers comply or die being the exception in recent years though i believe black apalache wore cheek pieces last year to finish second (i think)
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mckelvey was a blinkered 2nd i think aswell..but agree probably better not to have em...
i'm not about to start checking if the rails been moved other yrs..to back up the time...although have not heard once it was run over shorter... any way happy with my 75s & 25s e/w....he could get brought down @ the 1st[:p] g/l players & layers. |
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What A Friend appears to me to be an utter dodgepot.
Carries his head too high and on one side. Threw the towel in early this season and his Gold Cup run., although good did not to me say much. he stayed on through beaten horses and was never allowed to seriously get close. Its easy to finish 4th in a rcae if that's the plan. horses he beat maybe tried to win. I've seen far better handicapped horses go for the National over the years - none have won. If What A Friend is anyone's idea of an ideal National horse, good luck to them. I may be wrong (happens frequently according to the wife) but I just cannot see him getting round, or enjoying the National one bit. The only hope is that he manages to win without coming off the bit and never having to try too hard. I'd back him at 50/1 for a saver. The current odds are stupid. Ruby wouldn't touch him with a barge poll. |
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The whole point of the blinkers is so horses like WAF won't be noticing and getting distracted by what is going on around them and they often improve for wearing them the second time out. He will have Daryl Jacob to be his eyes and ears for him. It's a great opportunity for Jacob. The big if is will the horse take to the fences? If he does and granted he gets the bit of luck(or more to the point, avoids any undue bad luck) then I think he's the best national bet since Hedgehunter. He has much more positives going into this race than negatives and it's rare you see such a standout bet in this race. Cannot for the life of me see him going off double figures on the day.
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He certainly devide's opinion anyway I'll give him that. A trait he shares with his owner for sure.
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anyone that owned him, that possessed any sense at all would have a shot. i dont think he was ridden to place in the gold cup, thus enhancing his finishing position. infact i thought he was ridden in a similar fashion to long run and if he was as good as long run, he would have won from the ride he was given. he posted a career best by quite a bit lto and didnt seem to show any ungenuine traits when asked to go about his business. a national winner needs loads of luck but if he gets it, taking into account his form is superior to everyother horse in the race, i think he will be thereabouts
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Earth Summit wore blinkers did he not?..
The class horses are starting to dominate in the Grand Nation since the compression of the weights. First 2 home last year and the first 4 home the previous year all carried 11st or more. If the ground is no worse than Good/Soft then WAF is the one. I was a bit concerned about his jumping but after going through his races i have no concerns and i feel the flat track will suit him better than Chelters, so we could see more improvement and if that happens then he could win easily. He only has to give horse like Big Fella Thanks 5lb, Ballabriggs 6lb. He really is chucked in if its goodish ground. |
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gl y'all but agree with those who couldn't have this horse. The memory of him wilting to Denman when in receipt of nearly two stones still sticks in my mind.
 75's not a bad price thoguh Trev  |
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Waffer is not a bad jumper imv. May not be the most resolute but think class could well see him home
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Regarding Cryoftruths comments
The race at Newbury against Noland was a slowly run tactical affair. A dodgy race really. He rallied at the end which is becoming his trademark. |
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Sintonian What A Friend was a 6 year old when he wilted against one of the top 4 Chasers in living memory. Denman was in his prime and dossing and found more. The tank!!!!
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id say harry skelton might have been disappointed he didnt get what a friend up too...
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Skelton lost any future with this horse after the finish he gave him in the Aon. You just had to look at ol whikey nose's body language in the Parade Ring at Newbury afterwards. PN didn't look too impressed with HS either to be honest.
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whiskey[smiley:crazy]
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another point id like to make is that w/a/f appears to have been trained to the minuite for the gold cup and put in the g/n as an after thought so may be over the top for this race, if he is on song then yes hes a big chance but i/m/o its a big if ,hes 16 on here at the moment and if you really fancy him i cant see you getting any better price its only for £50 or so but its there for the taking if you truly fancy it what ever wins good luck punters
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Maybe he was trained to place in the Gold Cup with a saver on the Grand Natinal. He didnt have a hard race in the Gold Cup. As stated the horse seemed on form with him self after the race. Plenty of Gold Cup horses prove themselves in the GN.
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Just my opinion, but I think they will have always had him in mind as an Aintree horse (either national or the bowl) and while im not saying the gold cup was a prep run, I think they would have had murdered in him his prep for it.
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dont think*
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I agree Albion
They would have been very surprised by how well he did in the GC. |
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I don't think they'd have been too surprised, but they probably knew he couldnt win it. I was expecting him to improve a bundle for the ground and headgear and backed him ew at 40s
 so im sure PFN expected him to run quite well and they could use it as a springboard for a race at aintree....hopefully anyway haha |
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Yeah they expected him to run on well and almost snatch 3rd off Kauto Star. Yeah they expected a stone of improvement!
..sorry Albion |
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PN said they were thinking of a Grand National campaign for this one next season so clearly they always fancied as a National horse,he said after the Aon that this year just might come a bit soon for him, however the horses super run in the Gold Cup has forced his hand somewhat as there's not a hope he'll get in with a similar mark again. He's thrown in for sure
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Angel, I'd have thought they did expect him to improve massively for the better ground and fitting of headgear yes.
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He surely had a very hard race in the (fastest) Gold Cup. The ground was extremly quick, we've seen how many finished with problems etc. You don't have an easy race in the Gold Cup [smiley:crazy]
Hasn't Nicholls has always been of the opinion he needs to be fresh to show his best as well  |
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^ moving rails will not have altered the overall distance of race.Thats not allowed imo
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Albion it was not the first time he had run on good ground.
They were amazed with his run, believe me. |
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The first time in 2 years and in a top quality race ffs. Also first time headgear...
I'm sure they were very pleased with his run, but they must know he is talented. He's a grade 1 winner, not like he's never shown ability is it. |
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he wont win the national,he may win a national over standard fences ,but i am certain he wont win the national the way he jumps.
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ffs Albion
He improved over 1 stone!!! They were not expecting this!!!!  |
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WAF generally jumps well but can be keen, so although the track suits well i think he would not quite get home. plus he run best when fresh and even with the blinkers he can loose concentration at the odd fence as is bound to clout one or two
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whats the general accepted definition of "fresh" ? he ran on 18th feb, then ran arguably his greatest ever race on 18th march, is 4 weeks off classed as fresh? he loves good ground, in 4 runs on good or good/firm ground he's won 3 and finished 4th in "the best gold cup in modern times". imo having the same jockey on 2 runs in a row can do nothing but good, as Daryl Jacob should surely have more of a feel for the horse now? over a stone well in, best form in the race, the further he's run the better he's run. on good ground i fail to see how he isnt in with a very good chance (well, as good as one can have in the grand national)
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I don't want to argue too much angel, but I'm not that amazed that a dual grade 1 winner that has had a wind op,blinkers fitted to iron out any quirks, and has been SCREAMING out for genuine good ground manage to run to 170. I think the only people who would be astonished are people that doubted waf's natural level of ability in the first place, and how well he could run given his ideal conditions. I don't think nicholls would be one of these. obviously connections were delighted with the run as he came 4th in a gold cup, but I doubt they were amazed. out if interest how much improvement did you think the ground and headgear would bring out? also I think the ratings and 'improvement' is banded about too much. for me he is a 170s horse on good ground, but if he ran on soft he wouldnt run to within a stone of that, just like at Newbury. so in fact, in my opinion, he didn't actually "improve" by a stone he just showed in the right conditions he has the ability to run a stone better than in conditions that don't suit. he didn't suddenly become a much better horse.
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just add to that, good ground- huge chance, soft ground (not that nicholls would run him) - no chance despite being "a stone well in"
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Firstly, can anyone provide me with a link to re-view the Gold Cup please?
Secondly not one single person on this thread has noticed that when Midnight Chase began to tire, WAF was close up in fifth place and had to avoid MC when that horse lost ground, so WAF actually lost momentum at a VERY crucial stage, but ran on strongly once he had sufficient room. Personally I don't fancy him, but in the interests of those who do, this information might help. |
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Gold Cup on youtube
just watched it for the first time since being down there - the roar as Denman and Kauto go head-to-head made the hairs stand on the back of my neck again! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdHllGQHOOg |
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Albion Dan, to make my post clearer, i agree with your points. Firstly, all that i've posted is dependent on good ground, i wouldnt consider him the same horse on anything but that. Secondly, i personally told everyone who would listen he was still a quality horse and had a live chance of at leastaplace in the Gold Cup if it was run on good ground. When running races in conditions that suit, WAF has run well, people seem to just ignore the fact that the runs they use to justify his lack of ability are all in conditions he couldnt hate more. If the national is run on good ground, then all in my above post i stand by and he has a very good chance, if it isnt, then i would be very very surprised if he goes close
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Actually Dan i didnt know what to expect in the Gold Cup but i was very surprised how well he ran. If you have comments from connections before the GC would be interesting.
Back onto the Grand National will Alex and Ged still go for it if its gd/soft soft in places? |
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Nicholls seemed quite hopeful in his pre-race interview on RUK about 5 mins before the start.
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Strictly looking at his form its hard to say he is so much better on good ground imo.
His grade 1 win on soft reads quiet well. His 4th place in the Gold Cup can be looked at in different ways.Personally i aint sure its that good,with Kauto and Denman some way from their best now,well imo they are anyway. He does look well weighted,but he is a horse that personally i could not rely on in a race like the Grand National,not at his price anyway. |